Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 33 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist for WeatherNation TV, a new, national 24/7 weather channel with studios in Denver and Minneapolis. Founder of Media Logic Group, Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for media at Broadcast Weather, and high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. | Send Paul a question.

Growing Severe Threat Wednesday

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: September 2, 2014 - 6:39 PM

Wednesday Weather Oulook

"A low pressure system will move across the area on Wednesday and Thursday, and bring the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the area. Warm temperatures on Thursday will be reduced into the 60s and 70s for highs on Friday in the wake of the cold front. Cool and dry, autumn-like weather will then prevail for the upcoming weekend."

Growing Severe Risk
By Todd Nelson

As daylight continues to dwindle in the Northern Hemisphere, a cold pool of air begins to grow and intensify. This expanding blob tightens the temperature gradient from north to south, which stimulates the upper level winds. This energetic wind field tends to whip up more fequent and volatile storms and that's something we may be seeing more of in the future.

One of these said storms will meander into our neck of the woods today. Humidity values will spike to stickier levels and ignite strong to severe storms this afternoon. Watches/warnings may be issued later Wednesday, so stay tuned.

Lingering storms shake out some of the humidity by late Thursday. You'll notice a much more refreshing breeze by Friday... in fact, there will be a hint of Fall in the air by the weekend!

Apple picking season has commenced in some locations, so it might not be a bad idea to check out your local orchard this weekend. You can stock up on your favorite pie apples and start baking away! Just make sure you invite me over for a large slice, though I'll be busy on Sunday watching the Vikes lock horns with the Rams in the first regular season game. Yes, it's Fall! -Todd Nelson

================

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, still quiet. Low: 61.

WEDNESDAY: Warmer and stickier, fading sunshine with PM Storms. Dew point: 70. High: 84. Winds: SSE 10.15

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms likely, some strong to severe. Low: 72

THURSDAY: Breezy and unsettled with spotty storms. Dew point: 68. High: 84.

FRIDAY: Cooling trend, refreshing breeze. Wake-up: 55. High: 70

SATURDAY: Sunny, hints of Fall in the air. Dew point: 47. Wake-up: 53. High: 71

SUNDAY: AM light jackets, midday couch/football patrol. Wake-up: 52. High: 72

MONDAY: Gray skies return. Spotty thunder potential. Wake-up: 55. High: 74.

TUESDAY: Unsettled. More humid. Wake-up: 56. High: 77.

=================

This Day in Weather History
September 3rd

1989: An early afternoon thunderstorm dropped 1 3/4 inch hail in Stearns and Morrison Counties.

1980: An F2 tornado resulted in $2.5 million in property damage later an F3 touched down causing $25 million in damages in Stearns County.

1970: The record-setting hailstone fell that made Coffeyville, KS famous. It had a circumference of 17.5 inches and weighed 1.67 pounds.

1917: Earthquake felt from Staples to Brainerd.

=====================

Average High/Low for MSP
September 3rd

Average High: 77F (Record 97F set in 1925)
Average Low: 58F (Record 32F set in 1974)

=====================

Sunrise/Sunset Times for MSP
September 3rd

Sunrise: 6:37am
Sunset: 7:46pm

=====================

Moon Phase for September 3rd at Midnight
1.8 Days Since First Quarter

=======================

Minneapolis Temperature Trend

It'll be warm and sticky into mid week as a storm system approaches. Thunderstorm potential becomes more interesting on Wednesday as indices point to strong to severe potential! Post front, temperatures drop to more 'fall-like' readings into the weekend.

===========================

Wednesday Weather Outlook

We haven't had many hot days this summer and it doesn't appear any hot days are in order for the first half of September. We do warm up a bit on Wednesday. Temperatures will slide into the low/mid 80s across the southern half of the state, while folks in the northern part of the state warm into the mid 70s. Dew points will also be on the rise and hover in the upper 60s to near 70 by the afternoon, which will be nearly tropical feeling. With the heat and humidity builiding out ahead of a cool front, showers and thunderstorms could turn strong to severe later in the day. The image on the right suggests severe potential by the afternoon/evening hours.

Simulated Radar/Accumulated Precipitation Potential

The simulated radar reflectivity from AM Tuesday through PM Thursday suggests strong to severe storm potential by PM Wednesday. Hail and high wind potential could certainly be a big concern along with isolated pockets of heavy rain/flash flood concerns.

The accumulated rainfall potential from AM Tuesday through PM Thursday suggests heavier rain in central Minnesota and into west-central Wisconsin.

Severe Threat Wednesday

According to NOAA's SPC, the severe threat on Wednesday is greatest over the Upper Mississippi Valley. A front splashing out of Canada will promote thunderstorm development in the PM hours with hail and high winds being the primary threat.

Here's the latest from the SPC:

A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SIOUXLAND DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA WELL N OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MN WITH A MARGINAL HAIL RISK ON THE FRINGE OF LARGER BUOYANCY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD YIELD A PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR AS STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH AN EXPANDING EML. NEUTRAL TO WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD FOSTER SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE EML/CAPPING INVERSION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH STORMS THAT MANAGE TO ROOT INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE. HOWEVER...THE SRN EXTENT AND OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE RISK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY STRONGER CAPPING THAN IS DEPICTED IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
 

Sunrise Over Tropical Storm Dolly

Dolly became the 4th named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season earlier this week. The loop below shows the sunrise from Tuesday over Tropical Storm Dolly in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf of Mexico. As Dolly drifts northwest, heavy rain will be one of the main concerns for northeast Mexico and the southern tip of Texas.

Heavy Rain in Mexico

According to NOAA's HPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast in northeast Mexico suggests as much as 4" of rain or more through the upcoming weekend. Some of this heavy rain will slide into southern Texas

Norbert Develops

Tropical Storm Norbert developed early Tuesday morning in the Eastern Pacific. The loop below was sunrise over Norbet just off the west coast of Mexico.

Tracking Norbert

Norbert is the 14th named storm of the East Pacific Hurricane Season and follows Hurricane Marie, which was a category 4 hurricane early last week. According to NOAA's HPC, the forecast keeps Norbert a tropical storm through the end of the week, however, we could certainly see hurricane strength at some point this week.

Snowy Labor Day Weekend in the Mountains

While this may be a shocking view for some, it isn't all that strange to see snow in the mountains in early September, especially in the peaks. Thanks to the Togwotee Mountain Lodge for the picture below!

Winter Weather Advisory


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS: RAIN WILL START THIS EVENING, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AROUND 6,000 FEET OVERNIGHT CAUSING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD, WET, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE UNPREPARED IN THE BACK COUNTRY.

* TIMING: THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM, WITH THE TRANSITION TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURING AFTER 3 AM MDT.
 

Weather Outlook

The same storm responsible for snow in the northern Rockies will be responsible for some strong to severe storm potential in the Upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday.

Baby Gives Thumbs-Up in Womb

LOL!! USA Today has this story about a baby giving a thumbs-up sign durin an ultrasound!!

See the story HERE:

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Back to School; Nothing Rough

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: September 1, 2014 - 7:46 PM


Back to School
By Todd Nelson

While some schools have already settled in to a daily routine, most will be just getting underway today. Morning commutes will be a little more hectic as you follow around those yellow school buses making frequent stops. With that said, as the sun angle gets a little lower every morning, it'll be a little harder to see any youngsters darting across the road to catch the bus... Take it slow and pay attention!

On Monday, we welcomed Meteorological Fall, which marks the date when the warmest 3 months (on average) are behind us. The Autumnal Equinox is quickly approaching too; only 3 weeks away! Get this, we've lost nearly 2 hours and 20 minutes since the Summer Solstice and we'll lose yet another hour or so by the Equinox on the 22nd!

Our average high dips below 70F by the end of the month, so changes happen quickly...

While I hate saying goodbye to my garden and summer pools, I have come to realize that Fall is one of my favorite times of the year for other reasons. Lower humidity, less bugs and enjoying those brilliant fall colors on crisp mornings with a steaming hot cup of joe! MN has a lot to offer with the changing season, but blink & it's gone!

==================

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. Dew point: 55. High: 78. Winds: SW 5-10

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, still quiet. Low: 62.

WEDNESDAY: Warmer and stickier, fading sunshine with PM Storms. Dew point: 70. High: 84

THURSDAY: Breezy and unsettled with spotty storms. Dew point: 68. Wake-up: 71. High: 82.

FRIDAY: Cooling trend, refreshing breeze. Wake-up: 59. High: 72

SATURDAY: Sunny, hint of Fall in the air. Dew point: 47. Wake-up: 54. High: 70

SUNDAY: AM light jackets, PM sunglasses. Wake-up: 53. High: 73

MONDAY: More clouds with scattered PM storms. Wake-up: 58. High: 75.

=====================

This Day in Weather History
September 2nd

1996: Approximately 8" of rain fell over 2 1/2 hour period in the Mankato area resulting in flash flooding. Numerous road were closed, basements flooded and $100,000 of damage from a lightning strike in Lehiller.

1992: Severe weather affected several counties in the western parts of the County Warning Area. Several tornadoes were reported along with 3/4 inch hail and damaging winds as the system passed through Pope, Swift, Stearns, Kandiyohi, Meeker, Brown and Renville Counties.

1975: Severe weather rolled through Stevens, Swift, Kandiyohi, and Meeker counties. 1.50 inch Hail was reported in Stevens and Swift. An F1 tornado also occurred in Swift at the time that the hail was reported. An hour later another F1 Tornado was reported in Kandiyohi County while 69 knot winds occurred in Meeker County. Damages were estimated at $50,000 for the two tornadoes that touched down.

1937: Severe thunderstorms over northern Minnesota, with 4.61 inches of rain dumped on Pokegama. Flooding was reported in Duluth.

=======================

Average High/Low For MSP
September 2nd

Average High: 77F (Record 97 set in 1937)
Average Low: 58F (Record 42 set in 1974)

========================

Sunrise/Sunset Times
September 2nd

Sunrise: 6:36am
Sunset: 7:48pm

=========================

Moon Phase for September 2nd at Midnight
0.2 Days Before First Quarter

=================================

Minneapolis Temperature Trend

As we head back to the grind after the long Labor Day weekend, weather conditions will be rather quiet. However, a storm system moves in by midweek with more summer humidity and storms. Post front, we see a rather significant drop in temps and humidity by the upcoming weekend. In fact, there will be a hint of Fall in the air!

================================

Tuesday Weather Outlook

Tuesday looks rather pleasant as a few lingering showers drift east along the northeastern part of the state through the day. We warm up close to 80F in the southwestern part of the state with highs in lower 70s across the northern part of the state.

Weather Outlook (AM Monday - AM Wednesday)

The loops below show the simulated radar and accumulated precipitation potential from AM Monday through PM Wednesday. There will be a few spotty showers across the northern part of the state on Tuesday, while the next best chace of heavier rain/thunder moves in by midweek.

Weather Outlook

It'll be a fairly quiet start as we head back to work, but the next storm that rolls in by midweek bring a chance of showers and storms.

Severe Threat Wednesday

Our next chance of showers and storm by midweek brings with it a chance of strong to possibly severe storms. stay tuned!

Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Happy Labor Day! Weather Gets Happier/Drier/Sunnier by PM Hours

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 31, 2014 - 5:06 PM

Most Underrated Month?

"By all these lovely tokens September days are here, with summer's best of weather and autumn's best of cheer" said Helen Hunt Jackson. Not that it matters but this may be my favorite month of the year.

Think about it: summer's frantic 90-day spasm of over-scheduling is over - the air still mild; lakes warm enough for one last dip. Tornadoes are rare, a cooling atmosphere sparks lazy clouds: wisps of dense fog.

NOAA data shows September is nearly as sunny as July & August, 1-inch rains half as common as June. The air has roughly half as much water floating overhead as early July; crisp and clean most of the month. Even the mosquitoes seem to get the hint. Summer's September encore is nature's last standing ovation and I'm a raucous fan.

No need to water the yard anytime soon after last night's noisy soaking. Showers give way to some afternoon sun; the weather getting better as today goes on. Not a perfect Labor Day but we've seen worse. The next chance of thunder comes Thursday with a heat spike; highs may brush 90F before tumbling to more comfortable levels late week. You may have to pull out a sweatshirt next weekend.

In 2014 weather is on a time-delay; everything is coming later. I suspect a warmer than average September.

* File photo of Minnesota's BWCA courtesy of Steve Burns Photography.


Labor Day Details. European guidance shows a risk of morning and midday showers, but winds switching around to the west/northwest should pull drier, more stable air into MSP by afternoon with dew points falling from mid 60s into the low 50s by evening. The odds of seeing the sun increase as the day goes on.


Future Radar. 4 KM NAM guidance shows the showers and T-storms that rumbled across the area late yesterday and overnight; a few stragglers this morning then drying out later in the day with enough sun for highs in the upper 70s. Loop: NOAA and HAMweather.


Big Swings. We cool off and dry out today, a beautiful Tuesday giving way to a quick midweek hot front; some guidance hints at upper 80s to near 90F by Thursday with a few T-storms late Wednesday into Thursday. And then a more September-like airmass comes south for late week. ECMWF data may be overdoing the cooling a bit, but temperatures may struggle to reach 70F in the metro Friday into Sunday with 60-degree highs up north.


Traditional Peak of Hurricane Season Off To A Slow Start. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks September 10, the day a landfalling hurricane is most likely to strike the USA. But things remain strangely quiet in the Atlantic and Carribean, and the short-term forecast is for more of the same. Here's a clip from a story at Florida Today: "...But on Aug. 27, a forecast team at Colorado State University released a two-week forecast of hurricane activity through Sept. 10, predicting below average activity. The team tries to predict what they call the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. That’s all the named storms’ maximum wind speeds for each six-hour period of the storms that happen over the two-week prediction period. They say the two weeks ending Sept. 10 will bring less than 70 percent of the average ACE..."


Drought Forces Big Changes Among California Growers. If the drought continues we will all be paying significantly higher prices for many vegetables. Here's an excerpt of a good summary of what growers are doing to try and deal with historic drought at The Seattle Times: "...Such crop switching is one sign of a sweeping transformation going on in California — the nation’s biggest agricultural state by value — driven by a three-year drought that climate scientists say is a glimpse of a drier future. The result will affect everything from the price of milk in China to the source of cherries eaten by Americans. It has already inflamed competition for water between farmers and homeowners..."

Photo credit above: "Volunteers deliver cases of water to homes in East Porterville, Calif., Friday, Aug. 22, 2014. Nearly 1,000 people whose wells have gone dry due to drought received an emergency allotment of bottled water Friday." (AP Photo/The Porterville Recorder, Chieko Hara)


Swirls of Dust and Drama, Punctuating Life in the Southwest. With all apologies to my TV meteorology friend in Phoenix, haboobs are a clear and present danger, especially during the summer months. Here's the intro to a story at The New York Times: "The best way to explain a haboob is to say it is a tsunami of sand, in the sense that there is no stopping it or outrunning it. It is a supreme spectacle. The fierce winds that precede it make the leaves on palm trees stand as if they are hands waving an effusive goodbye, the sky darkens and the world takes the color of caramel as the dust swallows everything in its path..."


Why You Need To Stop Checking Your Phone All The Time. Here's a snippet from an essay at MindBodyGreen that caught my eye. She's right: "...I do my best to put the phone away when spending quality time with others, but because we all live in the same world and we all use these devices, we all have the same strange addiction to them. We’re tolerant of each other as we communicate with everyone else but the ones we’re with. Beyond the very basic tenants of memory we used to hold so dear (remembering phone numbers, addresses, birthdays and details of loved ones, etc.), lies a direct correlation between how much we use our brains and how much we substitute them with our phones..."


LABOR DAY: AM showers, slow PM clearing. Winds: West 10. High: 77

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy, more comfortable. Low: 58

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. Dew point: 55. High: 79

WEDNESDAY: Fading sun, storms at night. Wake-up: 62. High: 84

THURSDAY: Hot & sticky. Few T-storms. Dew point: 70. Wake-up: 72. High: near 90

FRIDAY: More clouds than sun, cooling off. Wake-up: 62. High: 71

SATURDAY: Sunny and beautiful. Dew point: 42. Wake-up: 55. High: 70

SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, hints of fall. Wake-up: 56. High: 72

* File photo above: Brad Birkholz.


Climate Stories...

David Hastings: What I didn't Say to Gov. Scott About Climate Change. Here's a clip of an Op-Ed at The Tampa Tribune: "...The governor’s office should embrace a transparent process to develop and implement a state plan to reduce carbon pollution. Florida should:

♦  Phase out coal-burning power plants. Many of these plants are inefficient, and they are the biggest source of human CO2 emissions.

♦  Ramp up energy efficiency. It is the fastest and cheapest way to reduce carbon emissions. Setting meaningful efficiency goals for big utilities will save communities money and reduce harmful emissions of heat-trapping gases..."


Climate Change Critics Want Data, Then Ignore It. An Op-Ed in the Union-Bulletin summed up something I've personally experienced, especially as it relates to the so-called "pause" in warming. Over 90% of the additional warming is going into the world's oceans - it's not a model, actual deep ocean temperature increases have been observed. Here's an excerpt: "...The longer-term trend, averaged over many cycles, is for unremitting increases in temperature. The effects of deeper layers of the oceans periodically absorbing heat isn’t sustainable and may itself upset oceanic currents that moderate temperatures around the globe. Scientists acknowledge the need for more data and improvements in their analytic methods. But, it is disingenuous of critics to ask for data, and then ignore what they are shown. They have no data themselves and their armchair methods aren’t likely to produce any."


Athabasca Glacier: A Tragic Vanishing Act. Here's the introduction to a story at Skeptical Science and Critical Angle: "The Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains is probably the easiest glacier in the world to access by car. It’s just a few hundred metres’ stroll from the nearest parking lot on the magnificent Icefields Parkway in Alberta. The problem is, the stroll keeps getting longer by about 10 metres every year. Since 1992, the snout of the glacier has retreated about 200 metres, requiring tourists anxious to set foot on the glacier to walk a little further. The glacier has lost about 2 km of its length since 1844 (Geovista PDF)..."

Photo credit above: "The Athabasca Glacier seen from the access trail. This point is about halfway from the parking lot and the current snout of the glacier, which is about 200 metres away. In the centre background is the ice-fall from the Columbia Icefield.  The marker shows where the glacier snout was in 1992, coincidentally the year of the Rio Earth Summit. It is just possible to make out some people walking on the glacier on the left-hand side."


Beachfront in the Time of Climate Change. The Atlantic's Citylab has a poignant article of what we will soon miss; here's an excerpt: "...But this year, as everybody packs up and heads back to school in the ritual of Labor Day Weekend, there’s something sinister about being near the water. It’s an end-of-days feeling, the grim reality that, because of climate change, these places are going to be very different in 30 to 50 years. Vast acreage will be inundated. Many of the most sought-after houses on the coastline will be erased from the landscape..." (Photo credit: author Anthony Flint).


Managing Coasts Under Threat from Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. Is there an orderly, methodical way to gradually retreat from the oceans? Here's a clip from a story at phys.org: "...The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realize the potential of adaptation. "Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapth, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinization, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communties," said Dr. Brown..."


1 in 4 Republicans Say Global Warming is a Major Threat. The Daily Caller has highlights of a recent Pew research study.


As Louisiana Sinks and Sea Levels Rise, The State is Drowning. Fast. Here's an excerpt from Huffington Post that caught my eye: "...In just 80 years, some 2,000 square miles of its coastal landscape have turned to open water, wiping places off maps, bringing the Gulf of Mexico to the back door of New Orleans and posing a lethal threat to an energy and shipping corridor vital to the nation’s economy. And it’s going to get worse, even quicker. Scientists now say one of the greatest environmental and economic disasters in the nation’s history is rushing toward a catastrophic conclusion over the next 50 years, so far unabated and largely unnoticed..."

Animation credit: From Bob Marshall, The Lens, Brian Jacobs and Al Shaw, ProPublica:


Why Climate Change Won't Intensify Extreme Snowstorms. The most intense snowstorms may shift north over time, which isn't surprising in a slowly warming world. Here's an excerpt from Live Science and Yahoo News: "...The study revealed little change in the intensity of major snowstorms in wintry regions. In areas where winter temperatures hover near the snow "sweet spot," the heaviest snowstorms became only eight percent less intense. The higher latitudes will shift the other way, with 10 percent more snow during extreme events, O'Gorman found. In regions where there is usually little snowfall, there will be fewer days with history-making storms..."


Does Antarctic Sea Ice Growth Negate Climate Change? Scientists Say No. Here's a clip from a good explanation of what's really happening at the bottom of the world from The Los Angeles Times: "...Scientists say sea ice and continental ice are probably responding to the same forces — namely, changes in ocean circulation and winds. However, they also influence each other. Sea ice helps buffer ice shelves, the floating tongues of glacial ice that dam the ice sheets and keep them from spilling irreversibly into the sea. It also keeps warm ocean waters trapped beneath a frozen lid, insulating the ice sheet from their destructive heat..."

Photo credit above: "Ice off Antarctica's Alexander Island. This year, Antarctic sea ice has expanded its frigid reach with unprecedented speed, setting records in June and July." (Eye Ubiquitous / UIG).

Sunday Super Soakers - Significant Severe Risk Later

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 30, 2014 - 5:11 PM

A Local Touch

It's been said that all weather, like politics, is local. You tend to care about what's outside your window, not weather building 90 miles up the road.

Meteorologists factor local conditions into their forecasts, like proximity to water, hills and the urban heat island. And they all think THEIR town's weather is the hardest on Earth to predict. I ask a buddy in Phoenix at a local station "What do you do all day?" He gets indignant. "It's harder than it looks, Paul. We get summer monsoon storms and massive haboobs, giant sandstorms that come on with little warning". Uh huh. He also told me that management told him not to use the word "hot" in the 7-Day. Apparently it agitates the locals and scares the tourists.

"Very warm with a high of 113!"

Sticky sun gives way to a rare severe storm outbreak later today. Hail, isolated tornadoes and a possible MCS squall line may form by the dinner hour. Go jump in a lake before 3 PM but keep an eye on the western sky.

Labor Day gets off to a damp start but the sun comes out by midday with a welcome dip in dew point. Not bad for a holiday.

80s return by midweek with signs of a more September-like airmass sweeping into Minnesota by late in the week.


Swirls of Dust and Drama, Punctuating Life in the Southwest. With all apologies to my TV meteorology friend in Phoenix, haboobs are a clear and present danger, especially during the summer months. Here's the intro to a story at The New York Times: "The best way to explain a haboob is to say it is a tsunami of sand, in the sense that there is no stopping it or outrunning it. It is a supreme spectacle. The fierce winds that precede it make the leaves on palm trees stand as if they are hands waving an effusive goodbye, the sky darkens and the world takes the color of caramel as the dust swallows everything in its path..."


Significant Severe Threat. A slight risk of severe storms extends from Minnesota and western Wisconsin into Iowa, eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas later today; the greatest potential for damaging hail and a few isolated tornadoes over western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, from roughly Des Moines to Omaha. I wouldn't be surprised to see NOAA SPC elevate the risk to moderate for some of these areas.


Tornado Potential Index. Ham Weather's proprietary TPI shows a strong risk of severe storms between 4 PM and 10 PM from Omaha and Des Moines into southeastern Minnesota and the St. Croix River Valley. Although the greatest potential for damaging winds and hail will stay south of Minnesota I wouldn't be shocked to see a couple of smaller EF-0 or EF-1 tornadoes over east central and southeastern Minnesota by the dinner hour.


Sunday Super-Soakers. The 4 KM NAM prints out some excessive 2-5" rainfall amounts just south of the metro area by tonight as cooler air sparks a series of squall lines, even a slight chance of an MCS (meso-convective) system flaring up later, especially south of the Minnesota River Valley where dew points are highest. 60-hour rainfall accumulation amounts courtesy of NOAA and HAMweather.


Irritable Sunday - Slow Improvement on Labor Day. Strong to severe storms are likely later today across much of the state, but a wind shift to the west/northwest pushes drier, more stable air back into town tomorrow. I still expect a wet start, but partial clearing is expected by midday with enough sun for mid to upper 70s Monday afternoon. We warm up again by midweek, before a more September-like airmass arrives by Sunday. Graphic: Weatherspark.


TODAY: Sticky sun, severe storms later? Dew point: 68. Winds: S 15+ HIgh: 83

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms likely, some strong to potentially severe. Low: 66

LABOR DAY: Wet start. Slow clearing, less humid. Dew point: 54. High: 79

TUESDAY: Some sun, pop up PM T-shower possible. Wake-up: 59. High: 78

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and warmer again. Wake-up: 61. High: 82

THURSDAY: Less sun, few T-storms. Dew point: 70. Wake-up: 67. High: 85

FRIDAY: Clearing, drop in dew point. DP: 49. Wake-up: 60. High: 76

SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, pleasant. DP: 52. Wake-up: 54. High: 75

* lightning photo credit: AJ Pena.


Climate Stories...

Athabasca Glacier: A Tragic Vanishing Act. Here's the introduction to a story at Skeptical Science and Critical Angle: "The Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains is probably the easiest glacier in the world to access by car. It’s just a few hundred metres’ stroll from the nearest parking lot on the magnificent Icefields Parkway in Alberta. The problem is, the stroll keeps getting longer by about 10 metres every year. Since 1992, the snout of the glacier has retreated about 200 metres, requiring tourists anxious to set foot on the glacier to walk a little further. The glacier has lost about 2 km of its length since 1844 (Geovista PDF)..."

Photo credit above: "The Athabasca Glacier seen from the access trail. This point is about halfway from the parking lot and the current snout of the glacier, which is about 200 metres away. In the centre background is the ice-fall from the Columbia Icefield.  The marker shows where the glacier snout was in 1992, coincidentally the year of the Rio Earth Summit. It is just possible to make out some people walking on the glacier on the left-hand side."


Beachfront in the Time of Climate Change. The Atlantic's Citylab has a poignant article of what we will soon miss; here's an excerpt: "...But this year, as everybody packs up and heads back to school in the ritual of Labor Day Weekend, there’s something sinister about being near the water. It’s an end-of-days feeling, the grim reality that, because of climate change, these places are going to be very different in 30 to 50 years. Vast acreage will be inundated. Many of the most sought-after houses on the coastline will be erased from the landscape..." (Photo credit: author Anthony Flint).


Managing Coasts Under Threat from Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. Is there an orderly, methodical way to gradually retreat from the oceans? Here's a clip from a story at phys.org: "...The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realize the potential of adaptation. "Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapth, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinization, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communties," said Dr. Brown..."


1 in 4 Republicans Say Global Warming is a Major Threat. The Daily Caller has highlights of a recent Pew research study.


As Louisiana Sinks and Sea Levels Rise, The State is Drowning. Fast. Here's an excerpt from Huffington Post that caught my eye: "...In just 80 years, some 2,000 square miles of its coastal landscape have turned to open water, wiping places off maps, bringing the Gulf of Mexico to the back door of New Orleans and posing a lethal threat to an energy and shipping corridor vital to the nation’s economy. And it’s going to get worse, even quicker. Scientists now say one of the greatest environmental and economic disasters in the nation’s history is rushing toward a catastrophic conclusion over the next 50 years, so far unabated and largely unnoticed..."

Animation credit: From Bob Marshall, The Lens, Brian Jacobs and Al Shaw, ProPublica:


Why Climate Change Won't Intensify Extreme Snowstorms. The most intense snowstorms may shift north over time, which isn't surprising in a slowly warming world. Here's an excerpt from Live Science and Yahoo News: "...The study revealed little change in the intensity of major snowstorms in wintry regions. In areas where winter temperatures hover near the snow "sweet spot," the heaviest snowstorms became only eight percent less intense. The higher latitudes will shift the other way, with 10 percent more snow during extreme events, O'Gorman found. In regions where there is usually little snowfall, there will be fewer days with history-making storms..."


Does Antarctic Sea Ice Growth Negate Climate Change? Scientists Say No. Here's a clip from a good explanation of what's really happening at the bottom of the world from The Los Angeles Times: "...Scientists say sea ice and continental ice are probably responding to the same forces — namely, changes in ocean circulation and winds. However, they also influence each other. Sea ice helps buffer ice shelves, the floating tongues of glacial ice that dam the ice sheets and keep them from spilling irreversibly into the sea. It also keeps warm ocean waters trapped beneath a frozen lid, insulating the ice sheet from their destructive heat..."

Photo credit above: "Ice off Antarctica's Alexander Island. This year, Antarctic sea ice has expanded its frigid reach with unprecedented speed, setting records in June and July." (Eye Ubiquitous / UIG).

The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realise the potential of adaptation. "Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapt, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinisation, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communities," said Dr Brown.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-08-coasts-threat-climate-sea-level.html#jCp

Lingering Clouds Saturday, Severe Storms PM Sunday

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 29, 2014 - 8:26 PM

Summer's Last Gasp
By Todd Nelson

"Yesterday's history, tomorrow's a mystery, today is a gift!"

This Labor Day weekend will be a memorable one for us in the Nelson household as we will be sending our oldest off to kindergarten in a few days. The sign on the school says "Welcome class of 2027" - GULP! I think I remember watching movies back in the day that had us driving flying cars at that point.

It has been a somewhat soggy go of things over the past couple of days. There will be a few lingering puddles on Saturday, but the weather will be fair for the Fair. It'll still be a bit muggy, but lingering clouds with peeks of sun shouldn't have any impact on your food consumption.

We warm up Sunday ahead of a developing storm system that could bring strong to severe storms close to home by late afternoon/evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed much of Minnesota under an enhanced thunderstorm risk, so stay tuned to weather maps near you.

Summer's last gasp quickly moves out by the start of Meteorological Fall on Monday. Other than having to tiptoe over a few puddles filled with remnant somethings on a stick, you should have no problem looking for some last minute deals -Todd Nelson

=================

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain/thunder threat continues. Low: 64

SATURDAY: Best day? Patchy fog, then intervals of sun. Dew point: 64. High: 78

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, quiet. Low: 63.

SUNDAY: Sticky sun, severe T-storms late? Dew point: 67. High: 85

LABOR DAY: AM puddles. Sunny and less humid. Wake-up: 66. High: 78

TUESDAY: Back to school. Average for early September. Wake-up: 59. High: 77

WEDNESDAY: Few afternoon clouds, still dry. Wake-up: 59. High: 79

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds, growing PM thunder risk. Wake-up: 61. High: 83

FRIDAY: Unsettled. Scattered T-Storms. Wake-up: 62. High: 83.

================

This Day in Weather History
August 30th

1977: Flooding on the southwest side of the Twin Cities, with the international airport getting 7.28 inches of rain in 4 1/2 hours.

===============

Average High/Low for MSP
August 30th

Average High: 78F (Record 96F set in 1941)
Average Low: 59F (Record 45 set in 1974)

================

Sunrise/Sunset Times for MSP
August 30th

Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 7:53pm

================

Moon Phase for August 30th at Midnight
2.2 Days Before First Quarter

========================

Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Meteorological Fall starts Monday, September 1st. That means the warmest 3 months (on average) for the northern hemisphere will be behind us. Looking ahead to the early part of September, there could be a bigger cool down headed our way by late next week/first weekend of September. In the meantime, temperatures through the weekend look to stay slightly above average with a bit more humidity.

Allergy Alert

According to Pollen.com - this weekend could be a rough one for seasonal allergy sufferers. Sunday, pollen levels look to spike considerably, but it doesn't look much better on Labor Day Monday.

Saturday Weather Oultook

We'll see improving weather conditions on Saturday. There could be a few leftover puddles and lingering showers in the early part of the day, but the sun should break out with highs approaching 80 by the afternoon. In my opinion, Saturday looks like the better Fair day.

Saturday Rainfall Potential

Here's the national rainfall forecast from AM Saturday through AM Sunday. Note the larger swath of rainfall from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, this is the rainfall threat we endured Friday. Saturday looks to be the drier day of the weekend as Friday's rain moves east, however there is another system moving in for Sunday.

Sunday Weather Outlook

Sunday will start off dry, but it'll quickly get warm and more humid as our next storm system approaches. There is a growing thunderstorm risk by late afternoon/evening across western MN that could wind up rolling into the Twin Cities by the evening/overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has put most of Minnesota under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for PM Sunday... Stay tuned!

Sunday Severe Risk

Here's the latest from NOAA's SPC regarding Sunday's severe weather potential:

SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST WSWLY FLOW FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFLUENT ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE QUITE A FEW STORMS TO EVOLVE ALONG WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH WEAKENS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ND/NRN MN BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY POST-FRONTAL BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS MN...THEN PROGRESSIVELY SW ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS NEB INTO KS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING WHEN SHEAR/LLJ INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORT WAVE EJECTS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY.

See more from NOAA's SPC HERE:

Sunday Rainfall Potential

Sunday's storm chance will not only bring us a strong to severe weather threat, but there will be some hefty rainfall totals possible as well. According to NOAA's HPC, the rainfall potential from AM Sunday to AM Monday could bring 1" of rain or more across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Weather Outlook

It's pretty easy to see the two different storms systems that we'll be dealing with over the weekend. One moving east of us by Saturday, while the second one will be moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sunday. That second one is the one that could bring strong to severe storms close to home.

Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, the Atlantic Basin still looks to stay fairly quiet over the next 5 days. There are only 2 weak disturbances that have only a low chance of further development.

Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX


 

ADVERTISEMENT

Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT