weather

Rock Bottom

"As the days lengthen, the cold doth strengthen."

Yes it doth. Byron Gilman asks "what is the coldest day of the year, on average?" Great question. Looking at the last 30 years the mean temperature at MSP bottoms out at 15 F. between January 8 and January 22. So you could make a case that the coldest days are January 15-16.

Of course it varies from year to year, but you may be happy to hear that temperatures rise 2 F. by the end of January. Hints of what's to come.

No blistering, hair-curling, paint-peeling cold is brewing, but models bring another surge of Canadian Delight south of the border the 3rd week of January; a few subzero nights around January 16-20. Coincidence? I suspect this may be the coldest outbreak of winter.

But first we thaw out a bit: 2 to 4 days at, or just above, freezing next week. It may be warm enough for a rain/snow mix next Thursday. Rain.. in mid-January. Strange. Then again, nothing much surprises me anymore.

This may come as a shock, but I don't see any significant snow looking out 2 weeks. 98 percent of Minnesota is now in moderate drought or worse. We need moisture.

Today's blog has my video clip recap of the top weather & climate stories of 2012. Based on my number crunching there's no doubt in my mind 2012 will be the warmest year ever recorded across the USA.

362 all-time record highs across the USA in 2012.

0 all-time record lows in 2012. Source: Capital Weather Gang and Weather Underground. Details below.

Vikes-Cast. Heading to Green Bay for Saturday's game? The weather will be pretty tolerable, at least by Green Bay standards: expect game-time temperatures in the low 20s under a partly cloudy sky, a wind chill dipping into the low teens. Could be worse. A detailed forecast for Green Bay from Ham Weather is here.

Coldest Day of Winter? I seem to get this question every year. It's probably human nature to want to know when we reach rock bottom, and when we can look forward to temperatures trending upward again. The chart above show average and mean temperatures for the month of January. The mean temperature bottoms out at 15 F. from January 8 to 22. The midpoint of the mean is January 15-16, so you could make a case that, statistically, these are the coldest days of winter, on average. Of course you can prove anything with statistics. But this tracks with conventional wisdom that, most winters, the coldest spell of weather arrives the second or third week of January, coming about 3-4 weeks after the Winter Solstice. And cheer up, the mean temperature rises 2 whole degrees between January 22 and 31! Calendar info courtesy of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

Risk Of A Fleeting January Thaw. The mercury may nudge 30 (above!) today, then cool down into the low and mid 20s over the weekend, close to normal for early January. Pacific air arrives next week, highs near freezing from Monday into Friday. Precipitation next Thursday and Friday may fall as a mix of rain and wet snow. A slushy accumulation can't be ruled out, but this looks like more of a Marchlike slush-event, possibly starting out as a little glaze ice (freezing rain). ECMWF high temperature forecasts above are in Celsius.

What A Difference A Year Makes. Here's one reason why I don't expect this winter to be nearly as mild as last winter. According to NOAA data snow is currently covering 65% of the lower 48 states of the USA; that compares with 21% of the USA on January 3, 2012. Snow on the ground keeps air temperatures 10-20 F. colder than they would be otherwise (with bare ground), and this acts as a break on temperatures to some degree. Granted, there isn't that much snow on the ground across the Upper Midwest, in fact I expect snowcover amounts to drop by roughly 50% during next week's thaw.

Late Next Week: Slop Storm? It's way too early to launch into specifics, but a southern storm will push a shield of precipitation into the Upper Midwest Thursday and Friday. To get (all) snow temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere will have to be below 32 F. Right now that looks unlikely - models hinting at enough warm air aloft for rain, or a rain-snow mix. Midday Thursday (January 10) guidance from ECMWF courtesy of WSI.

A Real Cold Front? GFS model data continues to hint at what may be the coldest air of the winter season shaping up for the third week of January, maybe 3-4 days with highs near zero and lows dipping well below zero. Anytime 850 mb temperatures fall to -25 F we're in for a bitter spell. I think we'll quickly recover by the last week of January, but don't write off a battery-draining arctic frontal passage just yet.

2012 USA Climate Recap. I prepared a 2:30 overview for WeatherNation TV, our new, national weather channel. I could have spent 30 minutes recapping the extreme, bizarre year of 2012. This YouTube clip touches on some of the highlights, including record warmth, no real winter, flowers blooming in March (in Minnesota!), a 1 in 500 year flood for Duluth, the most severe derecho on record, extreme drought and record Arctic ice loss.

2012's Surreal Record Warmth In The USA. Meteorologist Jason Samenow has a great recap of last year, what will almost certainly be the warmest year in recorded U.S. history, at the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang; here's an excerpt: "We await the inevitable “official” announcement from NOAA that 2012 was the warmest year on record in the Lower 48, by a huge margin. Recall, in mid-December Climate Central calculated there was 99.99999999 percent chance this feat would be achieved. In the mean time, it’s amazing to watch related records stream in at national, regional and local scales. Perhaps the most jaw-dropping record I’ve encountered was posted by wunderground historian Christopher Burton: there were 362 all-time record highs logged in the U.S. in 2012 but ZERO all-time record lows. That is an incredible disparity which - to me- seems like it would be impossible to accomplish without a marked human influence on climate BOTH from urbanization around weather stations and elevated greenhouse gas concentrations..."

Graphic credit above: "2012 temperatures in the U.S. compared to normal. The only large region where temperatures were slightly cooler than normal was the Pacific Northwest. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)."

2012: A Year Of Weather Extremes. Here's an excerpt of an excellent recap of last year's jaw-dropping weather from ouramazingplanet.com: "From unprecedented drought to killer cold, 2012 was a year of weather extremes. In 2012, the United States suffered 11 weather-related events that cost $1 billion apiece, according to a preliminary list released Thursday (Dec. 20) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Economic losses for Hurricane Sandy and the yearlong drought are still being calculated, but NOAA estimates 2012 will surpass 2011 in terms of aggregate costs for disasters (exceeding $60 billion). Severe weather disasters hit beyond the United States, too, as super typhoons slammed into Asia and a cold snap froze Europe's rivers. Globally, countries battled heat waves and droughts..." (image above: NASA GOES Project).

Sandy Tops List Of 2012 Extreme Weather And Climate Events. The meteorologists and climate scientists at Climate Central have a terrific overview of a wild 2012; here's an excerpt: "...The statistics are staggering: The first half of the year was so warm that by early August, the U.S. had already exceeded the number of record-high temperatures set or tied during all of 2011. July 2012 was the hottest month on record in the U.S., as a desiccating drought enveloped the majority of the lower 48 states, stretching its misery from California to Delaware. The drought has been the most extensive this country has seen since the 1930s. Ranchers were forced to sell off their herds as their fields turned to dust and the price of feed rose steeply; the Mississippi River neared a record-low level, threatening to curtail commerce; and drought-fueled wildfires consumed tens of thousands of acres across the West and threatened a large population center in Colorado Springs...."

2012 Severe Storm And Tornado Warnings. Here is an interesting YouTube animation, showing all severe storm warnings (blue) and tornado warnings (red) last year. Notice the concentration of tornadoes east of what is traditional "Tornado Alley", due to drought conditions and excessive heat much of the summer. There were far more tornadoes from Kentucky southward to Alabama - a trend we've seen in recent years. Animation courtesy of Greg Carbin at NOAA SPC.

Barge Traffic Stalls Along Drought-Parched Mississippi River. We may be a few days away from the closing of the Mississippi River to barge traffic due to lingering drought and record-low water levels on the (once) Mighty Mississippi. By some calculations over 8 feet of snow would be required to alleviate drought conditions over the Central Plains, water which would eventually help to raise water levels. Here's an excerpt of a Chicago Tribune story, via The Los Angeles Times: "CAPE GIRARDEAU, Mo. — Tim Cox was supposed to be steering an 800-foot string of barges through the twists and turns of the Mississippi River last week, moving tons of grain and coal toward the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, his towboat and about half a dozen others spent nearly 15 hours stationary in the drought-parched river, about 115 miles south of St. Louis. The boats had to stop while crews dredged downstream in a desperate attempt to keep the shipping channel open as the river approaches historically low levels. Cox, second in command on the towboat LJ Sullivan, sat in the captain's chair high above his barges, looking out the wheelhouse windows in disbelief at sandbars and stone dikes that are usually deep underwater..."

Photo credit above: "Water levels are low along the entire Mississippi River, but the Army Corps of Engineers says the worst stretch is from St. Louis to Cairo, Ill., where the Ohio River flows in. Above, barge traffic on the Ohio River at Cairo." (E. Jason Wambsgans / Chicago Tribune / December 20, 2012)

Ski Mexico! For months I've been telling you how storms are (once again) detouring well south of Minnesota. Who is seeing snow? According to the NAM model (courtesy of Weathercaster) as much as 6-10" snow is expected west of El Paso, Texas. Good grief.

Nagging Drought. It's being called the worst U.S. drought since 1956; exceptional drought conditions being reported from South Dakota and Nebraksa southward to Texas. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor is here.

"Extreme Rain": UK Warned Over Flood Risk. Whilte much of the USA suffers through debilitating drought - 2012 was the wettest year ever recorded for the United Kingdom. Sky News has a video report on the parade of storms; here's an excerpt of their story: "The UK is suffering more "extreme rainfall", which could have a serious impact on flooding problems, the Met Office has warned. The torrential downpours that have hit the UK this year are of a similar magnitude to those being experienced by China and India, according to the scientists. They have called for more research to be done to help protect the country from flooding in the future as these "extreme" weather events threaten to become more frequent. The disclosure has sparked warnings from environmentalists that it is further evidence of climate change in action..."

"Chilly" In Phoenix. The forecast calls for Phoenix calls for lows in the upper 30s, highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. I could deal with that. Thanks to Joel Rivera and WeatherNation TV for sharing this photo.

Parhelia. Donna Wick Paul snapped this photo in Piqua, Ohio yesterday, capturing a "sun dog" or mock sun, triggered by sunlight being refracted (bent) by hexagonal ice crystals.

A Good Excuse To Check Out Kickstarter. Crowdsourcing is becoming an increasingly popular way of raising money for projects, products and new services that resonate with people. O.K. I'm a little biased, but I'm a fan of up and coming Twin Cities rock/blues/funk band "The Lost Wheels", and they're trying to raise a little money to create a new CD for their growing legion of fans around the state. Even if you don't want to be a part of this groundswell, check out their Kickstarter video - it'll give you a much-needed chuckle or two.

I Did Not Know That. Thanks to Youtubehigh.com for clearing this up for us. Suddenly it all makes sense...

22 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities yesterday. (afternoon high of only 16 F.)

24 F. average high for January 3.

29 F. high temperature on January 3, 2012.

.6" snow fell at Twin Cities International yesterday.

Wonderfully Numb. After a quick half inch of morning flakes, skies cleared, and temperature fell thru the teens by afternoon, a wind chill dipping close to zero at times. Alexandria woke to a brisk morning low of -1.

Paul's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Free World:

FRIDAY: Sunny. Almost tolerable. Winds: SW 10. High: 29

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Low: 11

SATURDAY: Sunny start. Clouds increase, few PM flakes? High: 24

SUNDAY: Getting sunnier again, still chilly. Low: 9. High: 23

MONDAY: Plenty of sun, a bit milder. Low: 12. High: 29

TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, pleasant. Low: 17. High: 31

WEDNESDAY: Welcome January Thaw! Not bad at all. Low: 20. High: 34

THURSDAY: Icy start? Light rain - snow mix possible. Low: 29. High: 33

Climate Stories...

Another Record-Breaking Year For Climate Change. The Wichita Eagle has another look back at 2012, a year that won't soon be forgotten for a string of climate calamities; here's an excerpt: "It’s virtually certain that 2012 was the warmest year on record for the continental United States. When scientists affirm these results, they’ll no doubt make headlines. But we should put that record in perspective. North America covers just 2 percent of the Earth’s surface. Globally, we’re set to have another very hot year, likely in the top 10, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Looking further back, the past 35 years have all exceeded the 20th-century average global temperature. That’s a generational shift. Half the U.S. population is 35 or younger, so half of all Americans have never lived through an “average” year..." (wall cloud photo above courtesy of Brittney Misialek, from NOAA SPC).

In Farewell Speech, House Republican Lists Climate Change As A Top Priority. Here's an excerpt from Think Progress: "During his farewell speech Tuesday, outgoing House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier (R-CA) listed climate change as a top problem facing the country — a rare moment when a Republican leader in office openly acknowledged the need for climate action. Taking to the House floor, Dreier said climate change “is a fact of life” that must be confronted, and said it should be an imperative on par with the economy and gun control for his party..."

Winter Doldrums

"What a waste of cold air."

My friend, an avid snowmobiler, shook his fist at the sky. I feel your pain. Last winter was a bust for snow lovers. The hope and expectation was that this winter might be different, a little closer to normal in the snowfall department. Wait, what happened to normal?

Storms thrive on the boundaries separating warm, moisture rich air bubbling out of the Gulf of Mexico - and fresh bursts of bitter air swirling out of Canada. It's certainly been cold enough for snow in recent weeks, but prevailing jet stream winds howling from the west/northwest have forced the storm track too far south and east of Minnesota for heavy snow close to home. It's still much too early to write off winter snow, but the drought I've been talking about (ad nauseum) is still a factor. For the sake of farmers I'm hoping for a real shift in the pattern.

Expect goosebumps today; highs stuck in the teens, but at least the sun will be out. 20s will feel like sweet relief by Friday. 30s are possible much of next week; even a little rain next Thursday.

Some models are hinting at the coldest air of winter by the 3rd week of January.

No, this winter won't be as easy as last. But I still think we'll wind up with a winter slightly warmer than average. Stay tuned...

* image above: andfunforall.blogspot.com.

Spotty Snowcover. Parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead have as much as 12-15" of snow (lake effect enhanced) but most of the state is enjoying (?) anywhere from 2-5" of snow, about half the amount of snow that should be on the ground in early January. Map: Minnesota DNR.

Another Perspective. Based on NOAA guidance here is a higher-resolution look at where the most snow on the ground is as of January 2: from Taylors Falls westward to Sauk Rapids and Benson. The Marshall area has as much as 8-12" of snow on the ground, while the Red River Valley has less than 1-2" to report. Very odd.

January Thaw Next Week? It's not definite (it never is), but the ECMWF model is fairly consistent pulling Pacific air into Minnesota next week, perhaps 3 or 4 days with highs near or just above freezing. Today should be the coldest day of the next 8. Note the chance of light rain next Thursday, the brunt of the moisture from next week's storm sliding south and east of Minnesota. Nothing new there.

Another Close Encounter Late Next Week. The European model outlook above (courtesy of WSI) shows a storm winding up over eastern Iowa by Thursday evening; the atmosphere warm enough for rain from Chicago and Des Moines on south. A little unusual for mid-January, yes.

Mid-Month Reality Check. The GFS is (consistently) pulling much colder air into town starting next weekend, the second weekend of January, with a few cold days in the middle of the month, maybe 2-3 nights below zero. Not record-setting chill, but cold enough.

Climate Summary For 2012. Here is a good recap of 2012, a year that tied 1931 for the warmest year in Twin Cities recorded history. Details from the local Twin Cities NWS office: "2012 was an extremely warm year across the Upper Midwest. It tied for the warmest year on record at the Twin Cities, MN. St. Cloud, MN saw its 2nd warmest year on record, and Eau Claire, WI experienced its 3rd warmest year in recorded history. It was a dry year as a whole across much of the Midwest, but parts of Minnesota ended the year with near to slightly above normal precipitation amounts, primarily due to a very wet period from late spring into early summer. The Cooling Degree Days and Heating Degree Days Departuren From Normal charts really shows how warm the cold season was for the latter portion of the 2011-2012 winter, and the beginning of the 2012-2013 winter. There were even Cooling Degree Days recorded in March of 2012, which was the warmest March on record for most of the area, including the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Eau Claire."

* the blue line above shows the actual temperatures, day by day, for the Twin Cities in 2012. Note the lack of any record lows (light blue line at the bottom of the curve) - temperatures much of the year well above the average band (brown) near the middle of the curve. Graphic courtesy of NOAA.

Warmest Years. The graphic above (courtesy of the Twin Cities NWS) shows 2012 in a tie with 1931 for the warmest year on record for the Twin Cities. 4 of the 5 warmest years on record have occurred since 1987.

2012 Temperature Departures. Most of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley experienced 2012 temperatures 2-5 F. above average, as much as 6 F. warmer than normal for parts of southwestern Minnesota, northwest Iowa and South Dakota. Graphic courtesy of the Twin Cities NWS.

2012 Precipitation Departures. Here's another good recap of 2012, courtesy of the Twin Cities NWS. Rainfall was well above average near Duluth, the result of a 1-in-500 flood in late June that dumped as much as 10" of rain in less than 36 hours. Far western Minnesota, and much of Wisconsin saw rainfall amounts 50-80% of normal, less than 25% normal rainfall reported west of Omaha and Sioux Falls.

2012: Second Warmest Year On Record For St. Cloud. NWS data shows that St. Cloud missed the record by .8 F. 3 of the 5 warmest years have been observed since 1987.

Subzero Stats. Tuesday morning's low of -6 at MSP was the first below zero there since January 21, 2012. This 345 day stretch between days with below zero lows was the 2nd longest such stretch of all time, trailing only a 348 day stretch that came to an end December 21, 1878. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.

2012 USA Severe Storm Statistics:

699 Severe Weather Watches Issued Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm

1066 Tornado Reports – Actuals still being tallied, but through September 839 Actual Tornadoes.

7022 Damaging Hail Reports 3/4″ or Larger

14,043 Damaging Wind Events 57 MPH or Higher

Texas received the most reports, while Hawaii and Alaska tied for the least.

3/02/12 was the most Tornadic day, with 132 reports of Tornadoes.

7/01/12 was the most Severe day, with 737 Reports.

* data courtesy of Weather HQ. Wall cloud photo above: NOAA.

In (Snowy) Denial. The lack of snow (except for that one nice, big burst of snow on December 8-9) reminds me a little of last winter, when we were all making up excuses. Here's a graphic I saved from last winter. I haven't written off winter (snow) just yet, but just looking at the trends and nagging drought I suspect getting a series of major snow storms will be the equivalent of swimming upstream. For the sake of snow lovers (and farmers who need moisture on their fields) I hope I'm wrong.

The Genesis Of "Lake Effect". You can almost see those clouds bubbling and boiling over the (relatively) warmer waters of Lake Superior near Bayfield, Wisconsin. Subzero air passing over open water with water temperatures in the 30s has resulted in heavy snow squalls downwind, over Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Photo courtesy of Migizi Gichigumi.

Winter Serenity. Thanks to the Elko office of the National Weather Service for passing this one along. Very nice...

The Best NASA Images From 2012. Gizmag.com has details, and links to some amazing photographs; here's an excerpt: "2012 saw a number of significant milestones in star gazing and space exploration. NASA's Mars rover Curiosity touched down on the Red Planet in spectacular fashion, super-Earth's were discovered, the Moon pounded and Voyager 1 edged ever closer towards interstellar space and we saw more of the universe around us than ever before..."

Photo credit above: "August 31, 2012: A solar filament erupts out into space." (Image: NASA/GSFC/SDO)

A Computerized Fishing Rod? Sure - Why Not? This is what I need to (finally) catch trophy fish. A computerized rod and reel; details via gizmag.com: "Imagine that you’re an angler who has several lines in the water at once. How will you know if a fish strikes on one of your unmanned rods? Well, you could attach a bell to each rod, or just listen for its reel to start running. In these days of electronic everything, however, another alternative is now in the works – the computerized POLETAP SMARTROD. The water-resistant rod is the creation of Kansas-based inventor Ed Hope. It works with any reel, and contains an accelerometer that detects the telltale jerk of a fish taking the lure..."

Photo credit above: "The POLETAP SMARTROD uses a built-in accelerometer to detect fish strikes."

20 F. high on Wednesday in the Twin Cities.

24 F. average high for January 2.

20 F. high on January 2, 2012.

4/10ths of an inch of snow fell at KMSP International Airport yesterday.

3" snow on the ground (at least at the airport). Amounts vary around the metro area.

16.2" snow so far this winter in the Twin Cities.

22.6" average snowfall, as of January 2.

Cosmetic Snow. It was just enough snow to cover up some of the grit, and ice up roads a bit. Half an inch fell at St. Cloud, with 6" on the ground.

Paul's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Morning flurries give way to some PM sun - a cold wind. Winds: W 10. High: 14 (wind chill dips below zero at times).

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold. Low: 9

FRIDAY: Blue sky. Minnesota "warm front". High: 29

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, closer to average. Low: 14. High: 24

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Low: 11. High: 22

MONDAY: Intervals of sun, thawing out a bit. Low: 17. High: near 30

TUESDAY: Welcome January Thaw. Low: 19. High: 33

WEDNESDAY: Dripping icicles? Midwinter Pause. Low: 21. High: 34

* a little rain or rain/snow mix is possible next Thursday.

Climate Stories....

After Hurricane Sandy, Climate Change Is Back On The Political Agenda. Here's a reprint of an article from From New America Media and InsideClimate at highbrowmagazine.com: "This was the year climate change vanished from the political agenda—and then suddenly reappeared, after Hurricane Sandy shook the country. It was just a few years ago that President Obama flew to Copenhagen to rescue faltering climate-treaty talks amid bipartisan calls for global warming action. But in 2012, there wasn't a single congressional proposal or hearing on climate legislation. Neither was there mention of climate change on the presidential campaign trail, or in the debates for the first time in decades. In the rare instances that climate change surfaced in national discussions, politicians were fixated on the one aspect of warming scientists aren't debating: whether it's occurring. Republican-affiliated climate researchers told InsideClimate News that attempts to educate their party leaders on the science were rebuffed. Meanwhile, many U.S. scientists fended off attacks of global warming skeptics, while Canadian scientists had to deal with budget cuts and muzzling by their government..."

Chevron Chief Dismisses Climate Change Concerns. Here's a snippet of a story from The Washington Post and RTCC, Responding To Climate Change: "In an interview with news agency AP published in the Washington Post, Watson argues oil, gas and coal are the only “affordable” sources of energy available to governments. Reports from the World Bank and accountants PwC published in November 2012 warned that the world is on a trajectory to warm 4-6°C by 2100, which scientists say would lead to catastrophic changes in the global climate, together with rising sea levels. But Watson, whose company is planning to invest $33 billion in oil and gas exploration this year, says efforts to take direct action to address climate change, such as putting a tax on carbon, are inappropriate as they will put pressure on energy process and the world economy..."

Photo credit above: "Chevron CEO John Watson: The company is the second largest investor-owned oil and gas business in the world, reportedly making a $24 billion profit in 2012."

Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events And Stories. Here's an excerpt of a story at Huffington Post:

What were the most notable climate-related stories of the year?

"A group led by Greg Laden, interested in climate science, put together a list of notable, often, most worrying, climate-related stories of the year, along with a few links that will allow you to explore the stories in more detail. While it started, perhaps innocently, as a quest for a 'top ten' list, the effort to fit within an arbitrary limit quickly fell by the wayside. Thus, we did not try to make this a "top ten" list, because it is rather silly to fit the news, or the science, or the stuff the Earth does in a given year into an arbitrary number of events. (What if we had 12 fingers, and "10" was equal to 6+6? Then there would always be 12 things, not 10, on everyone's list. Makes no sense.) We ended up with 18 items, but note that some of these things are related to each other in a way that would allow us to lump them or split them in different ways. (See this post by Joe Romm for a more integrated approach to the year's events..."

Cold Weather Tax

"Winter is not a season, it's an occupation" wrote Sinclair Lewis.

Perhaps, although I consider winter a well-disguised Godsend. Think about it. If it didn't get cold every now and then, a couple of battery-draining nights, our population would spike. Those wide-eyed CNN meteorologists pointing to Minnesota unwittingly keep our commutes less horrific; nice cabins on our lakes, instead of high rise condos.

Then again I may be rationalizing the lack of feeling in my toes.

We're picking up 1-2 minutes of additional daylight every day now. Within 3-4 weeks average temperatures start to rise again. I have a hunch our current cold spell will be one of the 2 or 3 coldest of winter. Models show highs near 32F by Friday; a few days in the 30s next week.

Snow? A dusting or coating of flurries today; by the end of next week it may be mild enough aloft for a little rain. The drought that developed in late summer continues to flavor our weather; El Nino nudging the storm track south/east of Minnesota.

On the blog below: 2012 tied with 1931 for the warmest year in Twin Cities history. Our 5 warmest years have all occurred since 1987.

My gut? Another abbreviated, drive-by winter is shaping up.

A Numbing New Year. Tuesday morning saw the coldest readings of the winter, so far, subzero statewide, as cold as -21F (air temperature) at Paynesville. Details from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, via the Twin Cities NWS.

A "Warming Trend". Few other spots on Earth (outside of interior Alaska, portions of Finland and Siberia) would call 0 to +3 C a "warm front", but after negative numbers I can assure you that 30s will feel good, as early as Friday. Significant snow? You 'gotta be kidding me. No.

Temperature Trends. This Ham Weather graphic makes it easy to see the average high and low for the period, and predicted temperatures looking out into mid-January. After warming into the 30s much of next week readings take another dive by the second weekend of January.

Predicted Snowfall Thru Friday Night. The latest NAM numbers look pretty bleak (for snow lovers). Lake effect snow squalls may drop up to 8" near Syracuse, but - note to self - we don't live in Syracuse. Can I interest you in a snowy coating today? Bleak.

2012: Ties With 1931 For Warmest Year On record. You have to go back to the beginning of the Dust Bowl years to find a year as warm as 2012, according to Twin Cities NWS data. I think we can all agree that, in spite of a cold finish, last year was unseasonably warm. According to the NWS the average temperature last year was 50.4 F, or 4.6 F. warmer than average. Note the warming trend since the mid-80s above (solid black line).

2012: "Off The Scale". The dark red line shows St. Paul temperature trends in 2012, well above 4 of the 5 warmest years in modern-day records (1987, 1998, 2006 and 2010). 4 of the 5 warmest years have been observed since 1987; the other warm year was 1931. For a better look at this graph from NOAA NCDC click here.

December Numbers. Statewide December was warmer, and a bit snowier than normal (most of the snow coming during the December 9 storm). The local National Weather Service has a good summary: "December of 2012 brought something the area hardly saw at all during the 2011-2012 winter and that is snowfall. The majority of snow seen during the month was observed with the December 8th and 9th snowstorm, though Eau Claire did get some snow from the December 20th blizzard that struuck Iowa into southern Wisconsin, helping give Eau Claire the most snowfall for the month between the 3 climate locations. Add into the mix a primarily rain event the following weekend and the entire area got to experience something for the first time since this summer: above normal precipitation for a month. Of course in a year when all three locations were at or within a degree of setting the record for the warmest year on record, it shold come as no surprise that yet again, temperatures for te month of December were above normal. In all, only October saw below normal temperatures for a month in 2012, with all other months seeing above normal temperatures at St. Cloud and MSP (Eau Claire snuck in a below normal month in September as well)."

Shocker: Another Warmer Than Average Month. The Midwestern Regional Climate Center shows temperature anomalies for December 2012 ranging from +2 to +5 F. across much of Minnesota, as much as 8-10 F. warmer than average from Chicago into much of the Ohio Valley.

Increasing Daylight. We're picking up 1-2 minutes of daylight every day from later this week into mid-January. Historically the coldest weather of the year comes during the second or third week of January, about 3 weeks after the Winter Solstice. Calendar source here.

Top 10 U.S. Weather Events Of 2012. The more I read about Superstorm Sandy, the more impressed I am by the size and intensity of this historic storm. Here's a post from Wunderground meteorologist Jeff Masters, via Think Progress: "It was another year of incredible weather extremes unparalleled in American history during 2012. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters during the equally insane weather year of 2011. I present for you now the top ten weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact....

1) Superstorm Sandy
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy’s area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles–nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth’s total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy’s winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules–the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy’s tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been large..."

Photo credit above: "Cabs lie flooded on October 30, 2012, in Hoboken, NJ, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy." AP photo: Charles Sykes.

2012 Tornado Count Could Be One Of The Lowest In History. The reason? Record heat (and drought) over much of the USA for much of the summer, none of the large temperature contrasts that whip up strong wind shear, capable of turning garden-variety thunderstorms into tornadic "supercells". Huffington Post has more details: "...Harold Brooks, research meteorologist at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla., said that the lack of wind shear is responsible for the lower number of tornadoes in 2012. "That's associated, in some ways, with the drought that was over the central part of the U.S. during the summertime," Brooks said. "The jet stream went far to the north, and when we have that kind of a pattern over the central U.S., you have very hot weather at the surface. When it is that hot and dry, you don't get very many storms. And the storms that do form, there is not enough wind shear to get them organized into the kind of storms that make significant tornadoes." With very quiet and dry weather patterns, the winds do not vary much in speed or direction with height. Thus, rotating thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes are less likely..."

Graphic credit above: NOAA SPC. "This graph from the SPC shows the number of tornadoes in 2012 compared to the number of tornadoes in 2011 and the average number of tornadoes annually in the U.S."

Study: Home Air Conditioning Reduced Deaths. This probably doesn't come as a shock, but there is something of a paradox here: A/C requires electricity, which requires burning of fossil fuels, which warms the air, increasing the need for more air conditioning. Not sure how we (easily) break this cycle. Here's an excerpt of an article from courier-journal.com: "The installation of air conditioning in American homes reduced the chances of dying on an extremely hot day by 80 percent over the past half-century, according to an analysis by a team of American researchers.The findings, based on an analysis of U.S. mortality records dating back to 1900, suggest the spread of air conditioning in the developing world could play a major role in preventing future heat-related deaths linked to climate change. Very few U.S. homes had air conditioning before 1960; by 2004, that figure had climbed to 85 percent..." (Photo: NOAA).

Minnehaha Falls, Like You've Never Seen It Before. This is one of the few benefits (?) of a cold wave, one of the more remarkable photos I've seen recently. Thanks to Matt Sepeta, who snapped this photo of the frozen falls at Minnehaha Falls taken last winter (when we weren't in a drought).

1. Our phones are becoming our remote controls for life. If we have a need for it in our daily lives, there should and will be an icon and app for it on our phone. It’s as simple as that. Our phones are our emergency kit for first-world problems.

Whether it’s a taxi or a ride in the rain (Uber, Lyft), a mechanic (YourMechanic), a doctor’s appointment (ZocDoc), the literal remote control (AppleTV), a personal assistant (Exec), a cake-baker (Zaarly), groceries (Instacart), or you’re getting a little chilly and want the temperature in the house turned up (Nest), our phones are the concierge. I expect this phenomenon to continue in 2013 and as we run into times in our daily lives when we don’t have an icon for it just yet. Someone will be working hard to create it..."

 

 

Paul's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

TODAY: Coating to 1" of flurries, a few slick spots. Winds: SW 10. High: 22

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Light snow tapers to flurries. Low: 10

THURSDAY: Sunny and colder again. High: 14

FRIDAY: Sunny. Grilling weather! Low: 8. High: 31

SATURDAY: More clouds, cooler breeze. Low: 14. High: 25

SUNDAY: Some sun, not quite as chilly. Low: 12. High: 28

MONDAY: Intervals of sun, risk of a thaw. Low: 18. High: 33

TUESDAY: Sunny peeks. Above average temperatures. Low: 20. High: 32

Climate Stories...

Top Climate Stories of 2012. Here's a look at a Greg Laden post at scienceblogs.com: "A group of us, all interested in climate science, put together a list of the most notable, often, most worrying, climate-related stories of the year, along with a few links that will allow you to explore the stories in more detail. We did not try to make this a “top ten” list, because it is rather silly to fit the news, or the science, or the stuff the Earth does in a given year into an arbitrary number of events...."

1 Super Storm Sandy

"Super Storm Sandy, a hybrid of Hurricane Sandy (and very much a true hurricane up to and beyond its landfall in the Greater New York/New Jersey area) was an important event for several reasons. First, the size and strength of the storm bore the hallmarks of global warming enhancement. Second, its very unusual trajectory was caused by a climatic configuration that was almost certainly the result of global warming. The storm would likely not have been as big and powerful as it was, nor would it have likely struck land where it did were it not for the extra greenhouse gasses released by humans over the last century and a half or so...."

Top 10 Warmest Global Temperatures. Here are more details from Global Warming: Man or Myth?: "20 of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 25 years. The warmest years globally are 2005 with the years 2009, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2002, and 1998 all tied for 2nd within statistical certainty. (Hansen et al., 2010) The warmest decade has been the 2000s, and each of the past three decades has been warmer than the decade before and each set records at their end. The odds of this being a natural occurrence are estimated to be one in a billion! (Schmidt and Wolfe, 2009)."

Will The West Survive? Just looking at the trends - it's going to become even more challenging living in water-challenged western cities from Denver to Las Vegas and Phoenix, even Los Angeles. Here's an excerpt of an eye-opening article at Men's Journal: "This year, summer came on like a grudge, with record-breaking heat, inescapable drought, and the sense that the effects of climate change had arrived – and that life in America's mythic frontier might never be the same. Something looked off when I landed at Denver International Airport this past August. It had been about four years since my last visit, and I couldn't immediately put my finger on what was up. I bought a coffee, glanced at the 'Denver Post,' and wandered out into the main terminal, with its silly bedouin design, the domed white ceiling looking as flimsy and tarplike as ever. It wasn't until I was outside, riding in the shuttle bus to my rental car, that it struck me what had changed: The Rocky Mountains had vanished..."

The Windowless Room Of The Current Event. One problem many people have with MSM (mainstream media) is a collective amnesia, an inability to connect the dots and look at the big picture. Not what it is, but what it MEANS. Bill Moyer's web site takes a look at the media's inability to see the bigger picture with climate change in this post; here's an excerpt: "...Or take quite a different subject: climate change. These days — despite the 2012 presidential campaign’s silence on the subject until Frankenstorm Sandy hit — “extreme weather,” as the TV news generally likes to call it, is regularly headlined. Increasingly often, there is at least passing mention of, or even discussion of, climate change in some of these stories. Again, though, what’s generally striking in mainstream reportage is the way the dots aren’t connected. The issue is less what isn’t reported, than what isn’t included. After all, this year in American weather has been extraordinary. A partial list of the most salient events would include: the parching of the Southwest, as well as record wildfires, sometimes of staggering proportions in New Mexico, Texas, Colorado and across the West; the heat records that made 2012 an “endless summer” and is just about sure to make it the hottest year in the continental U.S. since records began being kept; the devastating drought across the Midwestern bread (or corn) basket and parts of the South, which for many months had 60-65 percent of the country in its grip (and shows no sign of going away this winter) — with damage running into the many tens of billions of dollars; and, of course, the way Sandy, that gigantic storm passing over the heated waters of the Atlantic, surged into New York City and ravaged the New Jersey coast, causing widespread devastation and tens of billions of dollars in damage (while putting climate change back onto the political map)...."

Global Warming Research Eyes "Runaway" Ice Melt. Here's an excerpt from The Summit County Citizens Voice: "Most climate models are probably underestimating the rate of sea level rise expected during the next few decades, according to some of the latest research that tries to quantify how much ice may melt off the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. A Dec. 26 update by James Hansen and Makiko Sato warns that melting of those ice sheets could increase sea level rise exponentially higher than most existing forecasts, potentially inundating coastal cities around the world with several feet of water by the end of the century. The short paper discusses the linearity assumptions in most existing climate models and suggests that, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, “the climate forcing will be so large that non-linear ice sheet disintegration should be expected and multi- meter sea level rise not only possible but likely.”..."

Photo credit above: "Will there be runaway ice sheet melting?" Bob Berwyn photo.

Welcome to 2013!

By Todd Nelson
 

And just like that, we close the books on the warmest year in recorded history for the U.S. and one of the warmest years on record for the Twin Cities. We'll join the ranks of that in 1931 when the average yearly temp for the Twin Cities was almost 5F above average!

The massive hot dome across the nation for much of the spring and summer had a big impact on the lack of severe weather and tornadoes across the country. According to the Storm Prediction Center, there was a record low in the number of tornado and severe weather watches issued for 2012. Since moving into their Norman, OK office in 1997, there has never been as few watches as this year's 697. 2012 will also finish with nearly 400 less tornado reports than the 7 year average. According to NOAA's NCDC, 2012 will finish nearly 140 less than the 1991-2010 average.

To the record Minnesota warmth and record Duluth flood, 2012 will be remembered mostly for it's warm and dry characteristics. Other than October, every month finished with above average temperatures in the Twin Cities. As of today, nearly 83% of the state is still in a severe drought or worse. Here's hoping for a more normal 2013! -Todd Nelson

___________________________________________________________________________

Todd's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

NEW YEAR'S DAY: Cold start to 2013! Bright sun. Wind Chills: -10 to -20. High: 13. Winds: SW 5-10.

Tuesday Night: Not as cold. Clouds thicken by daybreak. Low: 6.

WEDNESDAY: Clipper arrives, light coating of snow possible. High: 24.

THURSDAY: AM flurry. PM clearing trend. Low: 8. High: 16.

FRIDAY: Bright sun, quiet. Low: 6. High: 25.

SATURDAY: Good outdoor rink day. Low: 12. High: 25.

SUNDAY: Weather maps look quiet Low: 13. High: 28.

MONDAY: January thaw?. Low: 16. High: 33.

____________________________________________________________________________

A True Minnesotan

Thanks to @Brentyyyyyyyy for the picture below out of Minneapolis, MN. Now this is my definition of a perfect day! Can't beat an outdoor rink day.

Cold into the New Year

Take a look at the map below from the NWS. It shows the apparent temperature (feels like or wind chill) around 9am CST. Wind chills are still expected to be in the sub-zero range through the late morning hours. Other that some of the Mountain West locations, these will be some of the coldest readings across the entire Lower 48.

2012 Warmest Year on Record for U.S.

You're living weather history... Can you believe that we just endured the warmest year on record for the U.S.? Temperatures didn't just break the record, but it SMASHED the record!

"By taking the top spot as the hottest year in the U.S., 2012 pushes 1998 into second place, followed by 2006, 1934 and 1999. In line with the global warming trend spurred by steadily rising carbon emissions, seven of the top 10 warmest years in the 48 states have occurred in the past 15 years.

Like so much recent record-breaking weather, 2012 isn’t just going to break the previous record, 2012 is looking to smash it, by more than 1°F. Climate Central projects the 2012 average temperature for the continental U.S. at 55.34°F compared to the previous record set in 1998 of 54.32°F. For perspective, 1°F is one quarter of the difference between the coldest and warmest years ever recorded in the continental U.S."

Read more from  climatecentral.org HERE:

Extreme Heat Hampered 2012 Tornado Production

Interestingly, the extreme heat played a role in the amount of tornadoes across the nation this year. Because it got so hot so fast this spring, we didn't really see any extended tornado risks. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the 2012 tornado count will finish nearly 400 reports less than the 7year average.

2012's Biggest Tornado Day

2012's biggest tornado day was on March 2nd. There were 132 tornadoes from the Ohio valley to the Gulf Coast. March tornadoes also claimed the lives of 41 this year; (68 total fatalities for the year).

Average Tornadoes by Month Across the Nation (1991-2010)

According to NOAA's NCDC, the graph below suggest the average number of tornadoes across the nation by month. Note that our most active month is May with 276. Our most active month this year was April with 233 tornado reports, followed closely by March at 225. Both of these months ran above average because of the rapid warm up we had so early in the season, which can also be attributed on the lack of snow pack during last winter. 2012's 1,114 tornado reports are also below the average 1,253/year shown below.

For more infor see HERE:

Record Christmas Day Tornado Outbreak

There have been AT LEAST 27 confirmed tornadoes from the Christmas Day tornado outbreak last week. This will go down in history as the most tornadoes ever recorded on Christmas Day.

Extensive Damage and Fatalities

Cleanup from the strong Christmas Day tornadoes will take weeks and months. Here are some of the damage pictures from the National Weather Service out of Mobile, AL where EF-2 was reported.

2012's Biggest Severe Weather Day

Because of the excessive heat across the middle part of the nation this summer, we had several days that produced long-lived straight line wind producing storms. July 1st, 2012 produced over 700 severe weather reports (mostly damaging wind reports). These storms lasted several hours and crossed many states.

2012 Sees Fewest Severe Watches Since 1997

I knew the severe weather was fairly quiet this year, but I didn't know it was this quiet!

"The year will finish without any severe storms forecast during the next several days, so we offer this trivia tidbit regarding SPC watches. Did you know that 2012 will have the fewest number of tornado and severe thunderstorm watches issued by SPC since moving to Norman in 1997? Just 697 watches were issued this year (two numbers were inadvertently skipped which is why the last watch issued was #699). This breaks the previous record low (since SPC has been located in Norman) of 727 in 1999. The average number of watches per year for 1997-2012: 844. The greatest number of watches in a year during that time span: 983 in 2003."

See more Here:

Wednesday Clipper

A moisture-starved clipper system will drop into the Lower 48 with scattered light snow showers. I don't see much accumulation potential with this; a light coating is all.

Snow Potential Through Midday Thursday

Here's the snow forecast with next clipper system. Again, it doesn't look like much here. Hardly enough to fire up the snowblower unless you're downwind of the Great Lakes.

Thanks for checking in, have a great 2013 ahead!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV