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Paul Douglas on Weather

Highs Will Approach 80 Friday - Cooler With Storms Saturday

80s In Late October!

The forecast high right now for Friday is 80 in the Twin Cities! If the Twin Cities did hit 80 on Friday, it would be one of the latest last 80s on record as only ten other years have had a later date that the last 80 occurred on. The last average 80 on record (looking over the entire Twin Cities record) occurs on September 29th. Meanwhile, it was quite a warm Halloween in 1950 as that is the date of the latest 80 on record. Last year, the last 80 was on September 18th. The last time we saw a high that was 80 or higher this year was back on September 24th when the high reached 90.


August In October With A High Of 80 Today!

Who’s ready to get a natural sun tan in late October?

After a beautiful week of weather so far, today looks to potentially be the best day of the stretch – if you don’t mind breezy weather, that is. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to around 80 later this afternoon on the back of mainly sunny skies and southerly winds that’ll gust up to 30 mph.

To put today into perspective, it’s not often that we hit 80 this late in the year. Even though the record for the day is 83 set in 1953, if we reached 80 today in the Twin Cities it would be the eleventh latest last 80 degree day on record!

Unfortunately, this nice stretch of weather comes to an end this weekend. A cold front brings showers and storms for Saturday, along with cooler conditions. A second front early next week ushers in highs that will finally be back around average for late October.

Make an effort to get out and enjoy the weather today. There's probably a good chance we won't see weather this nice again until next spring.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Warm and windy. High 80. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-25 mph.
SATURDAY: Cooler with showers and thunderstorms. High 69. Low 46. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Sunny skies. Highs still above average. High 62. Low 46. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 3-8 mph.
MONDAY: A few afternoon showers. High 62. Low 43. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Breezy with cooler temperatures. High 52. Low 36. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Frosty start. Cool sunshine. High 54. Low 40. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: A few clouds. Highs around average. High 54. Low 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.


This Day in Weather History
October 20th

2002: Heavy snow impacts central Minnesota. It fell in a 10-20 mile wide band from southeast North Dakota to around Grantsburg, Wisconsin. Little Falls picked up 9 inches.

1916: Accumulating snow falls in south central Minnesota with 4.5 inches recorded in New Ulm, 4 inches in Farmington and Hutchinson, 3.5 inches in Montevideo, and 3 inches in Faribault.

1835: 6 inches of snow falls at Ft. Snelling.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
October 20th

Average High: 56F (Record: 83F set in 1953)
Average Low: 38F (Record: 18F set in 1960)
Average Precipitation: 0.07" (Record: 2.64" set in 1934)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 20th

Sunrise: 7:35 AM
Sunset: 6:19 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 43 minutes and 28 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 58 seconds

*Latest Sunrise Before Daylight Saving Time Ends: November 4th (7:56 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 6:00 PM: November 1st (6:00 PM)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

Enjoy this glorious weather day across the state, as most areas will climb into the 70s for highs. Some areas of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, could see a high of 80. A few passing clouds will be possible, otherwise expect mainly sunny skies.
Highs on Friday will be a good 20-25 degrees above average for this time of year across the state. Enjoy it while it lasts!

It will be quite a windy day on Friday as well, however, as winds gust over 30 mph across portions of central and southern Minnesota. That will be helping to usher in some of that warmer air, however.

Again, enjoy the warmth today while it lasts, as it could be the warmest we will be until next spring. Temperatures will take a tumble behind a couple cold fronts - one Saturday and another early next week - and be back around average for this time of year (in the 50s) by Tuesday.
That cold front moving through Saturday will bring some showers and storms with it. Many areas of southern, central and eastern Minnesota will pick up less than a quarter inch of rain Saturday.
Another chance of rain will exist next week as the second cold front moves through, but the rest of next week looks dry at the moment after that.


National Weather Outlook

Rain and snow will continue across parts of the Intermountain West on Friday as a cold front continues to drive west. Meanwhile, onshore flow will continue to bring the Pacific Northwest precipiation, along with a new system pushing in by Friday Night. A slow moving front across Florida will allow more showers and storms to soak the Sunshine State. The middle and upper Texas coasts will see some thunderstorms as moisture streams in ahead of a cold front that will move through the Midwest this weekend.
Highs on Friday will be far above average for this time of year across parts of the upper Midwest, with some areas a good 20-25 degrees above the average. With a cold front continuing to move east, parts of the western United States will see below average temperatures.

Heavy precipitation will continue across the Northwest as we watch a number of systems move through the region. Rainfall totals could top a half a foot in spots through next Tuesday morning. Heavy rain of at least 2" will also be possible across the Plains into the Southeast from this weekend into early next week.

Rainfall could quickly add up in the Northwest as we head into the weekend. The forecast has Portland, OR, picking up almost five and a half inches of rain through Sunday morning!

As a cold front moves through the central United States this weekend, we will watch for the potential of severe weather. An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place from southern Kansas to northern Texas. As storms pop in the evening, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

As a ridge builds out west this weekend into early next week, heat will build across portions of the Southwest. By Monday, places like Los Angeles, San Diego and Tucson could see temperatures approaching - if not breaking - records.

Record heat will continue into Tuesday as well, with areas like Los Angeles, Phoenix and Tucson potentially breaking records.


NOAA Winter Weather Outlook


NOAA released their winter weather outlook Thursday morning, and the forecast calls for wetter and cooler than average conditions across the northern United States, but warmer and wetter conditions for southern states. More from NOAA: "Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released the U.S. Winter Outlook today, with La Nina potentially emerging for the second year in a row as the biggest wildcard in how this year’s winter will shape up. La Nina has a 55- to 65-percent chance of developing before winter sets in."

Heat In Bangladesh

Scientists believe they can predict a heat wave in Bangladesh as soon as several weeks in advance and want to set up a warning system for the country - however, a heat wave definition has to be made first. More from the IRI: "Hannah Nissan, a postdoctoral research fellow at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, is trying to fill in this information gap. Nissan is the lead author on a new paper that proposes a heat wave definition Bangladesh – a first step towards the creation of a heat warning system in a country that currently doesn’t have heat wave forecasts. Before defining a heat wave, however, Nissan and her colleague Katrin Burkart at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health first examined the health impacts of heat in Bangladesh. They found that heat waves do indeed lead to more deaths in the country. They estimated that during an eight-day heat wave in 2008, for example, at least 3,800 people died from the excess heat. Two-thirds of those killed were 65 or older, indicating that the elderly are especially vulnerable to heat waves."  (Image: Dhaka, Bangladesh. Flickr: mariusz kluzniak.)

World Hunger On The Rise

A recent U.N. report says that world hunger is on the rise again, and climate change has a hand in it. More from The Conversation: "Around the globe, about 815 million people – 11 percent of the world’s population – went hungry in 2016, according to the latest data from the United Nations. This was the first increase in more than 15 years. Between 1990 and 2015, due largely to a set of sweeping initiatives by the global community, the proportion of undernourished people in the world was cut in half. In 2015, U.N. member countries adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, which doubled down on this success by setting out to end hunger entirely by 2030. But a recent U.N. report shows that, after years of decline, hunger is on the rise again." 

Solar Power, A California Town... And A Republican

The city of Landcaster, CA, produces more solar power per capita versus any other city in the state. Oh, and did we mention this was at the backing of a Republican mayor? More from ThinkProgress: "Some cities were hit hard by the Great Recession. Lancaster, California was positively clobbered. In the summer of 2009, the unemployment rate reached 17 percent, housing prices bottomed out, and foreclosures were rampant. Since then, the city has turned things around, thanks in part to the efforts of three-time Republican mayor Rex Parris, who transformed Lancaster into a clean energy powerhouse. Parris has been described by critics as “an arrogant bully and an unstoppable control freak,” according to the Los Angeles Times, but he gets results." (Photo: THE ALPINE SOLAR GENERATING FACILITY IN LANCASTER, CALIFORNIA. CREDIT: BUSINESS WIRE)

Wildfires, Hurricanes... The Climate Connection


The Los Angeles Times takes a look at all the recent extreme events across the country and how they could be connected to climate change: "California is contending with some of the deadliest fires in state history as wildfires burn across the western United States. Meanwhile, four hurricanes — Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate — have made landfall in the U.S. this year, the first time in more than a decade that so many have done so. Extreme events have been hitting the the country from all sides. To what extent does climate change influence them?" (Image: A scene of widespread devastation caused by wildfires in Sonoma County. Climate change makes fires more likely, for a variety of reasons. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times))

Forest CO2 Emissions

Where did the surge in CO2 during the last El Nino come from? InsideClimateNews has the answer: "During the last El Niño, global average temperatures spiked to more than 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time on record, and carbon dioxide levels increased at a record pace. Now, scientists working with data from a carbon-tracking satellite have figured out where most of that CO2 surge came from. The source was three massive tropical forest regions, in different parts of the world, that each responded to the rising temperatures in a very different way" (Image: The Amazon and the tropical forests of Africa and Indonesia each responded to 2015's high temperatures in a way that played a role in rising carbon dioxide emissions. Credit: Neil Palmer/CIAT)


Thanks for checking in and have a great Friday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

Another Nice Day Thursday - Highs Around 80 By Friday

Fire Weather Concerns This Afternoon

Due to gusty winds and low humidity values expected this afternoon, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for western Minnesota. This means that conditions are favorable for any fires that develop to rapidly spread.

Winds are expected to gust in the 20-35 mph range across parts of western and southern Minnesota during the afternoon hours.


80 Degrees Possible On Friday

Ready to enjoy some August weather in the second half of October? It is on its way to parts of the state Friday, with highs in the 70s and potentially touching 80 in areas on Friday! The forecast high right now for the Twin Cities Friday is 80.

That high of 80 expected Friday in the Twin Cities will actually approach the record for the day of 83 set back in 1953.

In many areas of the state, highs will be 15-25 degrees above average on Friday. This will certainly be some nice weather for the second half of October across the region... especially when we could have snow falling instead!

If the Twin Cities did hit 80 on Friday, it would be one of the latest last 80s on record as only ten other years have had a later date that the last 80 occurred on. The last average 80 on record (looking over the entire Twin Cities record) occurs on September 29th. Meanwhile, it was quite a warm Halloween in 1950 as that is the date of the latest 80 on record. Last year, the last 80 was on September 18th. The last time we saw a high that was 80 or higher this year was back on September 24th when the high reached 90.


Weather That Makes the Chamber of Commerce Proud
By Paul Douglas

If only this could last, right? Embrace and memorize the good times - power through the bad. Factoring dew point, bug count and allergy index you could make a strong case that the next 2 days will feature some of the finest weather of the year. 80F is not out of the question Friday afternoon; the average high on August 21.

Unusual but hardly unprecedented. On this date in 2000 the mercury hit 84F in the Twin Cities and 90F at Appleton. But the pendulum can just as easily swing in the opposite direction. On October 19, 1972 the mercury sank to 9F in Luverne and St. Peter.

Shorts on Friday give way to umbrellas Saturday as an eastbound cool front sparks a few showers and thundershowers. Sunday will be the sunnier, drier, better day of the weekend for outdoor plans.

A quick swipe of chilly air Tuesday gives way to a stronger, deeper push of Canadian air late next week. The first widespread frost/freeze of the season is likely late next week; possibly the first flurries of the winter season.

When the weather is this nice, for this long, expect the other shoe (boot) to drop!


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Sunny and beautiful. High 73. Low 53. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Sunny with a warm wind. High 79. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 15-25 mph.
SATURDAY: Few showers and thundershowers. High 71. Low 47. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, nicer day of the weekend. High 63. Low 50. Chance of precipitation 10%. Winds W 8-13 mph.
MONDAY: More clouds, few light showers. High 60. Low 43. Chance of precipitation 40%. Winds NW 10-15 mph.
TUESDAY: Cool sunshine, light jackets return. High 53. Low 38. Chance of precipitation 10%. Winds NW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, trending milder. High 60. Low 37. Chance of precipitation 10%. Winds SW 8-13 mph.


This Day in Weather History
October 19th

2000: The warmest October 19th in Minnesota history occurs for many towns. Many cities had highs in the 80s, with the Twin Cities hitting 84. Appleton in Swift County reported 90 degrees.

1972: A cold snap moves through Minnesota, with lows of 1 above in Tower and 9 in St. Peter and Luverne.

1916: Redwood Falls receives a record-setting 7 inches of snow.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
October 19th

Average High: 57F (Record: 87F set in 2000)
Average Low: 39F (Record: 15F set in 1972)
Average Precipitation: 0.07" (Record: 2.75" set in 1934)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 19th

Sunrise: 7:34 AM
Sunset: 6:20 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 46 minutes and 27 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 59 seconds

*Latest Sunrise Before Daylight Saving Time Ends: November 4th (7:56 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 6:00 PM: November 1st (6:00 PM)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

Another warm, beautiful day is expected Thursday with temperatures in the low to mid 70s in central and southern Minnesota and mainly sunny skies. Many areas of northern Minnesota should make it into the 60s, but Grand Marais looks to stay in the 50s.

Across most of the state, highs will be 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year Thursday.


Enjoy the nice weather through the end of the week (including that 80 degree day mentioned above on Friday) as a change will be coming as we head into the weekend. A cold front will pass through Saturday, bringing the chance of some thunder with it along with cooler temperatures. Another front will move through early next week. Both of these fronts will help usher in some of the coolest weather so far this season into the region, with highs only in the 50s by next Tuesday in the Twin Cities.

A cold front moving through Saturday will bring the best chance of accumulating rain since last weekend to the state. Rainfall amounts in the Twin Cities are expected to be around a half an inch, with higher amounts expected across parts of southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Showers will be possible as early as the morning hours Saturday across southern Minnesota, with a few thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.

A second chance of rain exists in the extended outlook as we head into next week with that second cold front that moves through. I hate to say this... but there is even the chance of a few snowflakes across portions of the state next Tuesday.


National Weather Outlook

Rain and high elevation snow will continue across the Pacific Northwest into the day on Thursday as a cold front moves through the region - even as far south as northern California. We could see some flooding from this rain, as some mountain ranges could pick up a half an foot or more of rain through the end of the week. A low pressure center could bring some showers and storms to parts of the desert Southwest Thursday. A few showers and storms will be possible along the Texas coast by the evening hours. Meanwhile, a stalled front will bring parts of Florida more scattered showers and storms. Most of the rest of the nation will see mainly sunny skies and fairly warm temperatures for this time of year.

Highs across many areas of the nation Thursday will be above average for this time of year, with the greatest departure from averages found in the Northern Plains and New England. With that cold front coming onshore along the west coast, highs will be slightly below average.

Temperatures will be warming across the upper Midwest the next couple days, with highs approach 80 in Bismarck and Rapid Citiy Tuesday, then reaching that same mark Friday in the Twin Cities. However, you can see that cold front moving through the region this weekend, quickly dropping highs behind it by at least 10-20 degrees. Another cold front early next week will bring even cooler air into the region.

We are expecting high pressure to build into the Great Basin this weekend. This will lead to quickly warming temperatures across the Southwest, with record highs possible for areas like Los Angeles, San Diego and Tucson by Monday.

Record highs will continue into Tuesday across the region, including in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Tucson.

The heaviest rain over the next five days (through the weekend) will be across the Northwest, where we'll watch several systems move through. Some heavy rain will also be possible across parts of the southern Plains/lower Mississippi Valley as a system moves through during the weekend, potentially bringing more than 2" of rain to the region.

As a system passes through parts of the southern and central Plains this weekend, some severe weather will be possible Saturday from Kansas to the Dallas area. Damaging winds would be the main threat with any severe storms.


More Lightning In Shipping Lanes?

That’s the conclusion based off a recent study, and it has to do with pollution those ships produce. More from Scientific American: “When lightning sparks across the sky, it sends out low-frequency radio waves that researchers can use to determine its location. Recently, scientists were looking over a map of lightning activity, when they noticed something strange: narrow lines of increased lightning frequency stretching across the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Straight features like these are rare on a spherical, spinning planet, except where humans are up to something. In this case, sending ships across the sea.” (Image: Observed annual-mean WWLLN lightning density for 2005–2016 in the eastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. (b) PM2.5shipping emissions estimates from EDGAR database for 2010, both at 0.1° resolution. From Joel A. Thornton et al, Lightning enhancement over major oceanic shipping lanes)

New Danger After California Fires

After the recent California wildfires comes a new danger: hazardous debris. California OES News has more: “Statewide wildfires that scarred communities across Northern and Southern California now pose a new threat. As changing weather patterns and tireless work of more than 11,000 firefighters boost containment lines, communities devastated by the fires face potential health risks associated with the improper handling of fire debris.

Electrical Problems In Puerto Rico

FiveThirtyEight took a dive into why the electrical grid has been a problem in Puerto Rico - long before Maria ever struck the island - and why there will be troubles for potentially years to come: “More than two weeks after Hurricane Maria crashed into Puerto Rico on Sept. 20, Allan Rivera had still not had a full night’s sleep. “Every three hours … I get up and do some maintenance on the generator,” he told me. His wife — who has multiple sclerosis — relies on air conditioning to help minimize her symptoms, but Toa Baja, the town where he lives on the island’s north coast, was still without electricity. That meant Rivera had to keep a gasoline-powered generator running 24 hours a day, seven days a week.” (Image: Aerial photographs of Puerto Rico before and after Hurricane Maria. NOAA)

Jones Act Could Affect Offshore Wind Market

The same government act that had to be revoked so more goods could get to Puerto Rico after Maria could pose a problem for future offshore wind power. More from GreenTechMedia: “The U.S. has lagged behind Europe in building offshore wind for decades. That’s often attributed to uncompetitive pricing and lack of political will. But as more developers work to get U.S. offshore wind projects off the ground in the coming years, the century-old Jones Act has raised concerns that even with improving economics and technological innovation, the process could remain onerous and the costs exorbitant.” (Image: Offshore wind farm near Samsø, Denmark. Photo Credit: Flickr/m.prinke)

“Green” Bond For Fiji 

A new bond from Fiji will specifically raise funds to combat climate change in the country. More from Reuters: “Fiji will issue a $50 million "green" bond in coming weeks to help combat the effects of global climate change, the first developing country to do so, its prime minister said on Wednesday.  The Pacific Island nation is seen as particularly vulnerable to climate change, with some of its 300 low-lying islands susceptible to rising seas.


Thanks for checking in and have a great Thursday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser