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A Wintry Potpourri of Presidents Day Precipitation

Sunday Sunrise
 
The sunrise on Sunday was pretty spectacular prior to the clouds rolling in. It's also nice to see the sun coming up earlier now, which by next week, the sunrise will be before 7AM in the Twin Cities! Note that we haven't had a sunrise prior to 7AM since early November, nearly 3 months ago.
 
(Image Credit: Todd Nelson)
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Some Wintry Weather on Presidents Day
 
Here's the weather outlook on Presidents Day Monday and note that our next system will push through during the day Monday with a chance of snow and perhaps a light wintry mix. However, it appears that most of the accumulating precipitation and snow will fall east of the Twin Cities. The rest of the week looks dry and sunny, but chilly with some sub-zero nights by midweek.
 

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Winter Weather Advisory

...TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW AND ICE LIKELY ON MONDAY... .A Winter Weather Advisory continues for southern Minnesota, and Pepin and Eau Claire counties in Wisconsin. The advisory is based on snowfall amounts of one to three inches, and some light ice accumulations. The main threat for ice is Monday morning, and the main threat for snow is Monday afternoon. Light precipitation will begin to develop early Monday morning along the Iowa border and spread northeast across Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin by the afternoon. Some freezing rain is possible in the morning. The freezing precipitation will mix with snow in the late morning, and then should transition to mainly snow in the afternoon. The snow will end early Monday evening.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON MONDAY...

*WHAT...A light glazing of ice possible with around 1 to 2 inches of snow.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Minnesota.

* WHEN...Through noon Monday.

NOAA NDFD Snowfall Potential
 
Here's NOAA's NDFD snowfall potential through midweek, which shows our next snow event working through the region on Monday. Most of the snow looks like it will fall south and east of the Twin Cities, but an inch or two for the metro could make for a slow commute and tricky travel for most.
 
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Monday Weather Outlook for the Twin Cities
 
Here's the weather outlook for Presidents Day Monday, which looks a little snowy. Again, it appears that most of the snow will fall south and east of the Twin Cities, but there could be enough snow in the area to create slippery roads and slow commuting times. Be prepared! 
 
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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Here's the temperature outlook across the region for Monday, February 16th, which suggests that temperatures will be running a little above average in the Twin Cities for this time of the year. However, it looks like temps in the northwestern part of the state will be dipping to below average readings again as highs only warm into the teens.
 
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Extended Temperature Oulook
 
Here's the extended weather outlook through the end of the month and into early March. Note that temps take a bit of a hit during the middle part of the week with highs only warming into the teens and lows in the sub-zero range. However, the upcoming weekend looks warmer with highs approaching the 30s and 40s... Stay tuned!
 
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Extended Temperature Outlook
 
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook from February 23rd - 29th, shows temps running below across much of the Western and Southern US. However, folks in the Eastern US and the Great Lakes Region will be warmer than average! It even looks like we could be running above average in the Upper Mississippi Valley as well!
 
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A Wintry Potpourri of Presidents Day Precipitation
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Despite snow in the forecast on this Presidents Day, I am happy to report that spring has officially arrived at the Nelson abode!

Last week I planted my first round of flower seeds (indoors) and was delighted to see that most germinated / sprouted over the weekend! Tomato seeds will have to wait for about another month, but to my fellow green thumbers out there, happy planting!

Today will likely be our 4th day of measurable snowfall at the MSP airport, which is defined as at least 0.1 inch or more. Believe it or not, last February we had 13 days of measurable snow, which became the snowiest February in recorded history with 39 inches falling in the metro. Uffda!

Today's light snow coating will fall mainly south and east of us, but could be enough to slow commute times once again.

You'll need your heavy winter artillery midweek as sub-zero readings develop Wednesday & Thursday morning. The good news is that we warm up rather quickly at the end of the week as highs approach 40 degrees this weekend. More typical of early/mid March!
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Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Light snow coating. Mainly east. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 34.

MONDAY NIGHT: Light snow ends. Mostly cloudy and colder. Winds: NW 10-15. Low: 10.

TUESDAY: Lingering flakes? Colder wind. Winds: NNW 10-15. High: 15.

WEDNESDAY: Sub-zero start. Nippy PM sunshine. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: -4. High: 10.

THURSDAY: Blue sky and a mid winter chill. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: -6. High: 10.

FRIDAY: Blustery winds. Turning warmer. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 15. High: 38.

SATURDAY: Less wind. Still dry and mild. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 24. High: 36.

SUNDAY: Feels like March. Clouds increase late. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 20. High: 38.
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This Day in Weather History
February 17th

1981: Warm weather continues across Minnesota with a record high of 55 in the Twin Cities. Crocuses were blooming.

1894: The Minneapolis Weather Bureau journal notes: 'Sleighing is very poor, about half of the vehicles are on wheels'.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
February 17th

Average High: 30F (Record: 63F set in 2017)
Average Low: 14F (Record: -20F set in 1936)

Record Rainfall: 0.32" set in 2014
Record Snowfall: 4.9" set in 2014
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 17th

Sunrise: 7:11am
Sunset: 5:43pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 32 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute and 57 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 hour & 46 minutes
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Moon Phase for February 17th at Midnight
2.4 Days After Last Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

"On the above sky chart above, we don’t show the moon for February 18, 2020, because – from a good swath of North America – it’ll actually be in front of Mars, and covering over the red planet. The moon, forever in motion in front of the constellations of the zodiac, swings in the vicinity of Jupiter on February 19 and to the south of Saturn on February 20. If you’re on the right place on Earth’s surface, you can watch the moon occult (cover over) Mars on February 18, and then Jupiter on February 19. We elaborate on these lunar occultations later on in our post. Although the above chart is especially designed for mid-northern latitudes in North America, it should work for your part of the world, too. From around the world, these three planets line up across the early morning sky, with Mars at top, and Saturn at bottom. The brightest of the threesome – the king planet Jupiter – resides in between Mars and Saturn."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

(Image Credit: EarthSky.org)

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Monday Weather Outlook

Here's a look at high temps across the nation on Monday, which shows a pretty warm bias across much of the eastern half of the country. The warmest locations will be across the Southern US, where readings will warm into the 70s and 80s. Dallas, TX will apprach 80F, which will be nearly +15F to +20F above average! Meanwhile, folks in the Northwest and along the Front Range will be cooling down to below average readings. Denver will only warm to 40F on Monday, which will be nearly -5F below average.
 
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Sunday National Weather Map
 
Here's the national weather map for Monday, February 17th, which shows a fairly active setup in the Central US with showers and storms in the Southern US and snow and wintry precip moving into the Great Lakes.
 
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National Weather Outlook
 
Here's the national weather outlook from PM Sunday into early next week. Note the potent clipper moving through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday, which will be responsible for areas of plowable snow there. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop on the southern flank of this system, which could lead to another round of rainfall across the Southern US.
 
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7 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast, which shows another round of heavier rain across the Gulf Coast States with localized flooding possible. There will be additional heavy precipitation across Pacific Northwest, where snow will be found in the Mountains and rain along the coast and lower elevations.
 

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Significant Rainfall Potential Through Next Week
 
Here's the extended precipitation forecast from the ECMWF (European Model) through the end of the week, which shows some 1" to 3" tallies.
 
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Wet Start to 2020 in the Southeast
 
Here's a look at how much precipitation has already fallen so far this year (since January 1st). Keep in mind that some of these locations are already in the top 10 wettest starts to any year on record. Again, many locations within this area are several inches above average so far this year and there's more rain on the way over the next 7 days!
 
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2020 Tornado Reports So Far Through February 7th
 
According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 131 tornado reports so far this year through February 12th, most of which have been across the Southern US and the Gulf Coast States. The farthest north Tornado ocurred in Ohio on January 11th. According to NOAA's SPC, there have already been 8 tornado fatalies so far this year. 
 

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2020 Tornado Watch Summary

Here's an interesting map. It shows all the Tornado Watches that have been issued by NOAA's SPC so far this year. Interestingly, there have been a total of 26 Tornado Watches, but a majority of them have been across the Gulf Coast States.


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Tornado Probabilities for Early/Mid February

According to NOAA's SPC, the best chance for Tornadoes during the early/middle part of February is typically across the Gulf Coast States and especially around the Lower Mississippi Valley (specifically in Mississippi).

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Climate Stories
 
(Image Credit: NOAA Satellite)
 

"Weather by Jenny Offill: How to cope with climate anxiety in a crisis"

"Climate anxiety is no stranger to fiction. For decades, writers have confronted the future of a warming planet, through speculative dystopias such as J. G. Ballard’s The Drowned World and Margaret Atwood’s MaddAddam trilogy. More recently, John Lanchester’s 2019 novel The Wall depicts a near future in which Britain has erected a barrier around its coastline to keep climate refugees out. Jenny Offill’s new novel, Weather, adds to the growing subset of fiction concerned with the impact of climate change. Set in about 2016, the book is written in the first person, in fragments of narration, dialogue and information. The form is similar to her 2014 novel, Dept. of Speculation. But where the previous book examines the uncertain future of a marriage, Weather navigates the psychological burden of an impending climate crisis. Weather focuses on individual lives and in this regard it has similarities to social realist novels such as Barbara Kingsolver’s 2012 novel Flight Behaviour. The book is narrated by Lizzie, a librarian, who details her preoccupations at work and home with a frankness that is often amusing. There are conversations with and worries about her husband, son and her brother, who is recovering from an unspecified drug addiction."

See more from New Scientist HERE:

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"Climate change study suggests Seattle may warm by 4.6 degrees by 2050"

"A new study on climate change shows that expected shifts in weather and sea levels across the globe as carbon dioxide emissions increase won't be equal. The study, commissioned by Nestpick, intends to show how some of the world's most popular cities, including Seattle, could be affected in the next 20-30 years as Millennials and Generation Zs age and decide where to live, according to the study's authors. The study focused on three main areas where impacts could be felt: sea levels, overall climate and potential water shortages and gave a score in each city on a 100 point scale where 100 was expecting the most impact and 1 was the least amount of impact. Of the 85 most popular cities chosen for the study, Seattle ranked as No. 32 when it comes to overall expected impacts from climate change with a relatively low score of 22.21 out of 100. Bangkok, Thailand was found to have the most impact at a full 100 points, while Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam and Amsterdam, Netherlands round out the top 3 with a score around 85."

See more from KOMO News HERE:

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"Climate damage equals health damage"

"Ten years have passed since an international panel of scientists declared climate change the biggest threat to global health in the 21st century. The 2009 Lancet article linked the rise in our planet’s temperature to direct and indirect health threats from increased chronic and infectious disease, and to extreme weather effects from floods to wildfire. Despite the scientific research supporting climate change, resistance to reducing climate-damaging practices persists. The direct effects of climate damage impact the most vulnerable in our communities: Children and pregnant women, older adults, and people who live in or near poverty. As a nurse practitioner, I have seen first-hand the rise in rates of respiratory diseases, such as asthma and allergies, aligning with growing levels of particulate matter in the air and longer allergy seasons. When greenhouse gases such as CO2 rise, heat is trapped in our atmosphere. This results not only in rising temperatures but also in higher levels of body-damaging small particle pollution. These small particles cause inflammation which also contributes to heart disease and various other chronic illnesses, from cancer to autoimmune diseases, like lupus. More subtle effects include an increased rate of allergies. Warming temperatures fuel pollen levels, as the period for allergy-producing plants lengthens."

See more from Daily Item HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Not Much To Complain About - Cooler Highs Sunday

Snow Sunday Night Into Monday

A system will swing through the upper Midwest as we head through Sunday Night into Presidents' Day Monday, bringing a period of light snow along with it. Here in the Twin Cities only about an inch to inch and a half of snow is expected, with heavier amounts expected across portions of northern Minnesota (2-3") as into Wisconsin.

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Snow Season Update

As we take a look at the snow season in total so far, we're just a few inches above average here in the Twin Cities with 40.9" so far. However, that is still good enough for the 23rd snowiest start to the season on record. Both Brainerd and Duluth are running more than a foot above average.

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Not Much To Complain About - Cooler Highs Sunday
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

This has been a winter so far that we can’t complain about too much. Our recent cold snap quickly dropped the average February temperature from 4.5F degrees above average through the 11th to only 0.3F degrees above average as of Friday. However, above average temperatures during December and January have us sitting at the 23rd warmest meteorological winter to date (December 1st – February 14th) with an average temperature of 21.3F.

Meanwhile, we’ve had plenty of snow to get out and play in - even if the quality of the snowpack hasn’t always been the best. We’ve received 40.9” of snow so far this snow season, the 23rd snowiest to date on record and about 3” above average for mid-February.

We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds across the region today with below average highs. As a system swings through the region tonight into Monday some light snow is expected with about an inch possible in the metro. Cold high pressure drops in from Canada mid-week before temperatures quickly moderate back into the 30s by next weekend.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Cooler. Light snow tonight. Wake up 10. High 23. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind E 3-8 mph.
MONDAY: Light snow continues. ~1" totals. Wake up 19. High 33. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind WNW 3-8 mph.
TUESDAY: Breezy. Morning clouds fade. Wake up 11. High 16. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Chilly sunshine. Wake up -5. High 10. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Warming trend begins with blue skies. Wake up -6. High 20. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SSW 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Mainly sunny. Breezy winds. Wake up 14. High 37. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SSW 10-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Quiet weather continues. Wake up 21. High 37. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind WSW 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
February 16th

1981: A significant warmup occurs across Minnesota. Highs in the 50s and 60s are common. 5 daily high records are broken in a row in the Twin Cities, with many others also broken statewide.

1903: A temperature of -59 is recorded at Pokegama Dam, tying the state record low at that time. It would not be broken for another 93 years.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
February 16th

Average High: 29F (Record: 60F set in 1981)
Average Low: 13F (Record: -26F set in 1936)
Average Precipitation: 0.03" (Record: 0.40" set in 1878)
Average Snowfall: 0.2" (Record: 3.2" set in 1938)
Record Snow Depth: 26" in 1967

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 16th

Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Sunset: 5:41 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 28 minutes and 57 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 56 seconds
*When Do We Climb To 10.5 Hours Of Daylight? February 17th (10 hours, 31 minutes, and 54 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/Before 7 AM: February 24th (7:00 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 6 PM: February 29th (6:00 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Most of Sunday will be dry across the state, although a few roaming snow showers can't be ruled out during the afternoon hours. A better chance at snow will come Sunday Night. Highs will range from the upper single digits in far northern Minnesota to the 20s in southern portions of the state.

These highs on Sunday will be below average across the state - up to 15F below the average in northern Minnesota. The average high in the Twin Cities for February 16th is 29F.

As stated above, we should see dry conditions in the Twin Cities throughout much of the day, with a better chance of snow not moving in until the overnight hours. Morning temperatures will start off around 10F (feeling like 0F) with highs in the low to mid-20s.

With light snow expected, highs on Monday will climb to around the freezing mark. However, cold Canadian high pressure will slide south behind that system bringing highs 10-20F degrees below average for the middle of the week.

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National Weather Forecast

On Sunday, an area of low pressure along the northern Gulf Coast will produce some showers and thunderstorms. Lighter showers are possible across other areas of the Southeast stretching into the Ohio River Valley. Rain and snow chances will exist from the Pacific Northwest to the upper Midwest and south into the Colorado Rockies.

Rainfall tallies of over an inch will be possible along the Pacific Northwest coast through Monday evening, with feet of snow possible at higher elevations in the western mountains.

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After severe weather events, what happens to cars flooded, left by roadside?

More from the Clarion Ledger: "We all know that water and cars don't mix. But extreme weather events have made floods — and flooded out cars — a common sight. If it's your car that's been flooded, a trusted mechanic will have to determine whether it can safely run again. If you're looking to buy a used car, one of the biggest issues that buyers face is making sure the car has not been submerged. Water damage is one of the worst things that can happen to a car. The damage is often invisible and hard to detect after the car has been "cleaned.""

From a glacier break to record temperatures, Antarctica had quite the week in climate change

From CNN: "This week, an iceberg the size of Atlanta broke off a glacier. Researchers discovered a dramatic decline in Antarctic penguin colonies. And Antarctica may have just registered its hottest temperature ever. In case all of that was not enough to make you at least a little concerned, yet another unusually high temperature was logged in the Antarctic Peninsula on February 9, when a weather station on Seymour Island produced a reading of almost 70 degrees. The World Meteorological Association is trying to verify it as a new record."

Deadly fires in Australia have made climate change converts, as in California

More from the Los Angeles Times: "The turning point came in 2017, when wind-whipped blazes swept through the foothills, jumped a freeway and burned through thousands of homes and businesses, killing more than 40 people. The fires in Northern California’s wine country — followed by an even more deadly inferno in Paradise the following year — led many Californians to recognize that climate change was not some distant threat but an immediate catalyst of the state’s ever-more destructive blazes. Australia is now going through a similar shift in perspective amid fires that have burned more than 30 million acres."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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