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Cooler Midweek Weather - Near 90 By Saturday Again

90 Degree Days

We have had another warm stretch of weather recently here in the Twin Cities, with highs of 90 last Wednesday through Friday and in the upper 80s this past weekend. The 92 degree high we saw on Monday (not listed above) brings the total for the year up to 17 days, which is above the average of 13 per year. The warmest day so far was back on Memorial Day, when we saw the earliest first 100-degree day on record.

We have already observed more 90 degree days so far through mid-August than we saw in all of last year or the three years previous to that.

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Cooler Midweek Weather - Near 90 By Saturday Again
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

Have you been enjoying the recent burst of summertime heat and humidity across the region? The past week has been a good reminder that summer isn’t over just yet - even as the start of the State Fair looms next week and back to school sales dominate the stores.

Monday marked the 17th day so far this year with a high of 90+ in the Twin Cities, and we have quickly climbed above the average of 13 days for the entire year over the past week. Meanwhile, the average temperature since June 1st has been 74.1 degrees - good enough for the 15th warmest such period on record.

A few showers and storms will be possible across central and southern Minnesota today behind a cold front. The main story, though, will be relief from the hot weather. Highs will fall back closer to average through Thursday before another warm-up is expected toward the weekend.

Scattered storms may dot southern Minnesota late Thursday; otherwise, our next best chance of rain after that won’t arrive until late in the weekend.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

TUESDAY: A few scattered rumbles. High 83. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly sunny and cooler. High 81. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 3-8 mph.
THURSDAY: Isolated southern MN storms? Otherwise a mix of sun and clouds. High 83. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 3-8 mph.
FRIDAY: Sunny - warming back up. High 86. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: A few passing clouds. High 89. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 3-8 mph.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Late day rain. High 83. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Periods of showers and storms. High 81. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 3-8 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
August 14th

1978: The Boundary Waters area is hit by a strong tornado. Some of the damage could still be seen 10 years later.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
August 14th

Average High: 81F (Record: 96F set in 1978)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 43F set in 1964)
Average Precipitation: 0.15" (Record: 1.00" set in 1981)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 14th

Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 8:20 PM

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 7 minutes and 4 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 45 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 6:30 AM Or Later: August 28th (6:30 AM)
*Next Sunrise Of 8:00 PM Or Earlier: August 26th (8:00 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Highs will be cooler across the state on Tuesday behind the cold front, with many areas in the 70s and 80s. There will be portions of northern Minnesota, however, that won't make it out of the 60s for highs. A few scattered showers and storms will be possible across central and southern Minnesota, but the weather shouldn't be a concern to get out and vote in the primaries!

This map certainly looks different than it did the past few days, with many areas of the state seeing below average highs Tuesday. Areas like International Falls and Roseau will be a good 10-15 degrees below the average. Meanwhile, areas across southeastern Minnesota have the best chance at being slightly above average.

Highs will remain in the low 80s (close to average) as we head through the middle of the week before another slight warm up moves in by the weekend. The extended forecast does show the potential of a few more 90s as we head into the first weekend of the State Fair.

Rainfall amounts with any scattered showers and storms Monday Night into Tuesday are expected to be fairly light across the state.

Meanwhile, once we move past the chance of rain Tuesday, we could be dry for the rest of the work week in the Twin Cities as models differ on how far north showers and storms could get into southern Minnesota on Thursday. A better chance of rain moves in late on Sunday and into early next week.

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National Weather Forecast

On Tuesday, a couple slow-moving low-pressure systems across the Central Plains and Northeast will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms across these regions, including the threat of heavy rain. A cold front will be draped from Michigan to Nebraska by the evening hours with the chance of some rain along with it. Monsoonal showers and storms will continue across the Southwest.

While the heaviest of the rain will have already fallen Monday across parts of the central and northeastern United States, more rounds of at least moderate rain will continue Tuesday and Wednesday across these regions. Monday through Saturday morning rainfall totals could top 3-4" in spots.

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Salting the earth: North Dakota farmers struggle with a toxic byproduct of the oil boom

More from NBC News: "Daryl Peterson's farm has been in his family for as long as he's been alive. His father passed down the 2,500-acre spread, just a few miles from the Canadian border in Antler, North Dakota, nearly 50 years ago. He and his brother Larry have been farming it ever since. But now, in his 70s, Peterson finds himself forced to protect his family's legacy. For the past two decades, Peterson and his wife Christine have been dealing with the spillage of saltwater — a byproduct of oil production — on their land, which grows peas, soybeans and various types of grain. Almost 40 years ago, they signed a contract with an oil company "land man" who came to their house and said there might be oil on their land. In 1997, two spills covered dozens of acres with more than 50,000 gallons of saltwater. A decade later, another 21,000 gallons of saltwater spilled. And since then, though their land never produced much oil or oil revenue, the Petersons say they have seen another 10 spills."

Drought raises food security fears in Afghanistan

More from Al Jazeera: "A shortage of precipitation during the winter months, both rain and snow, left much of Afghanistan with a severe scarcity of water and a decimated winter harvest. The situation has not improved during the drier spring and summer months, and the wheat harvest is likely to be the lowest since 2011, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, set up by USAID in 1985. The United Nations' Humanitarian Coordinator in Afghanistan, Toby Lanzer, recently said: "If the authorities and the international community don't step up to this challenge now, Afghanistan could face a calamity as we head into the next winter." The shortfall in wheat this year could be as much as 2.5 million tonnes. This would result in more than two million people facing food insecurity and being left in "desperate need" of humanitarian assistance within the next six months, the UN says."

Kangaroos in town due to widespread drought

More from the Western Advocate: "WITH 100 per cent of the region now impacted by drought, residents are reporting kangaroos in town, on golf courses, in residential streets and along main roads. Late last week, the NSW Department of Primary Industries announced that the entire state was now in the grips of a drought. Large areas of the region now have little or no grass for stock or wild animals. Chalres Sturt University’s (CSU) lush lawns in Bathurst, Orange and Dubbo have become a favourite grazing place for kangaroos as the widespread drought has strengthened."

Heat: the next big inequality issue

More from the Guardian: "When July’s heatwave swept through the Canadian province of Quebec, killing more than 90 people in little over a week, the unrelenting sunshine threw the disparities between rich and poor into sharp relief. While the well-heeled residents of Montreal hunkered down in blissfully air conditioned offices and houses, the city’s homeless population – not usually welcome in public areas such as shopping malls and restaurants – struggled to escape the blanket of heat. Benedict Labre House, a day centre for homeless people, wasn’t able to secure a donated air-conditioning unit until five days into the heatwave. “You can imagine when you have 40 or 50 people in an enclosed space and it’s so hot, it’s very hard to deal with,” says Francine Nadler, clinical coordinator at the facility."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Tuesday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Another 90 Degree Day Monday - Slightly Cooler By Midweek

Drought Update

The latest drought monitor update came out last Thrusday, and we have seen increases in the amount of areas under abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions across the state. Most of this is occurring over northern Minnesota, although there is a small area of abnormally dry conditions just southeast of the Twin Cities. The latest numbers show that 18.11% of the state is under abnormally dry conditions (up from 14.09% the previous week), and 3.01% is under moderate drought conditions (up from 0% the previous week).

As we take a look at the rainfall departure map since the beginning of the year, the areas under at least abnormally dry conditions match up pretty well with where we have received below average precipitation. International Falls is 2.00" below average so far this year and 1.57" below average since June 1st. Closer to home, both the Twin Cities and St. Cloud are also below average so far this year, but by less than an inch. Meanwhile... Sioux Falls is 7" above average.

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Smoke Filtering Into Minnesota Saturday

Here's a look at that smoke that continued to filter into Minnesota Saturday, leading to hazy, smoky skies and poor air quality. Loop courtesy of AerisWeather.

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I Credit My Career to Curiosity - and Study Hall
By Paul Douglas

It's interesting (and random) how careers get started. My unlikely media run began in an 11th grade study hall (which I excelled in). I leaned over to a guy who had his own radio show. "Why don't you have your own weatherperson delivering forecasts?" I asked, presumptuously. He looked at me like I had horns, thought about it, then said "Great idea! Let's talk to my boss". From a small 500 watt AM station to WCCO Radio today, I love the medium. Not being dependent on video - but words and stories to paint a unique, personalized picture in every listener's mind? Radio is the original social media.

Friday I did my show with Jordana Green from our cabin on Pelican Lake. I couldn't see across the lake, the smoke was so thick. I suspect smoke kept temperatures a couple of degrees cooler, too.

Another crack at 90F, today before a  lonely thundershower arrives Tuesday, but most storms prowl just south of Minnesota this week; the best chance of thunder Thursday night.

The State Fair is around the corner. So is another hot front. ECMWF predicts 90F next Saturday. Hang on summer!

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Hot sunshine, dry. High 91. Low 69. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
TUESDAY: Cooler, stray T-shower possible. High 86. Low 67. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, more comfortable. High 83. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Lukewarm sun, few storms southern MN? High 84. Low 67. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Ample sunshine, warming up. High 87. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Looks good right now. Warm sunshine. High 90. Low 69. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 3-8 mph.
SUNDAY: Less sun, risk of thunder up north. High 89. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
August 13th

1964: Minnesota receives a taste of fall, with lows of 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
August 13th

Average High: 81F (Record: 98F set in 1880)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 48F set in 1997)
Average Precipitation: 0.14" (Record: 2.05" set in 2007)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 13th

Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 8:22 PM

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 9 minutes and 49 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 43 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 6:30 AM Or Later: August 28th (6:30 AM)
*Next Sunrise Of 8:00 PM Or Earlier: August 26th (8:00 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Another mainly sunny and warm day is expected across Minnesota on Monday, with the best chance of a few clouds across northern parts of the state. Highs are expected to be in the 80s and 90s.

Highs will once again be a good 5-15 degrees above average across the state Monday.

Monday will be the last day of this 90-degree stretch as temperatures cool a bit with a cold front moving though on Tuesday. This will knock temperatures back closer to average for the middle of the week before we see slightly warmer highs once again heading into next weekend.

We now see a couple of rain chances in the forecast over the next seven days. The first will be as the cold front moves through on Tuesday, but that chance looks slight at the moment. The other chance - sometime next weekend - could be minimal across the region as well.

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National Weather Forecast

A somewhat-stationary front will continue to bring the chance of showers and storms from the Northeast to the Southeast. An upper level low will also continue to produce more rain across parts of the Southern Plains, with heavy amounts possible in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. A cold front extending from northern Minnesota back into the Great Basin by Monday evening will help produce some showers and storms. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will continue to bring chances of rain during the afternoon and evening hours in the Southwest.

Here's a look at the rainfall forecast across the nation through Friday morning. Heavy rain will continue over parts of the Southern Plains over the next couple days, with the potential of 2-4"+ of rain across parts of Oklahoma just through Wednesday morning. An additional 0.50-2.50" of rain will be possible across parts of the Northeast as well, with most of that falling Monday and Tuesday.

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Temperature readings are higher at Sea-Tac than Seattle this summer. What’s the deal?

More from the Seattle Times: “We’re on pace for the second-hottest summer in Seattle’s history. But has it really felt that way?  Thursday marks the 10th day Seattle has recorded a temperature of 90 degrees or higher this summer, trailing only the sweltering summer of 2015, which had 12 days reach 90-plus degrees. The city has also recorded 27 days of 85-plus-degree days this year, which ties the record set last year.  July’s average temperature of 70.7 also is second only to 2015’s 71.2, according to National Weather Service data. But, close weather watchers have noticed something off about the official temperatures this summer. As it turns out, on warm days, the temperature readings at Sea-Tac Airport have been several degrees higher than nearby locations.

California Wildfires Are Causing Billions in Damage. Who Will Pay?

More from TIME: "In the past few decades, wildfire season in California has expanded from a few months each year to a year-long phenomenon. This summer’s Carr and Mendocino Complex fires — which together have burned more than 400,000 acres of land in Northern California — follow a string of smaller but still disastrous blazes earlier this year and last. From a scientific perspective, this new reality is made much more likely by climate change, which raises temperatures and makes drought more persistent. But climate policy experts say the law hasn’t caught up when it comes to people, businesses and communities on the ground who need to recoup the billions in damage caused by the fire. In California, government investigators say the local electric utility Pacific Gas & Electric is responsible for 12 fires that caused billions in damage late last year because the fires were sparked by power lines, in most cases, coming into contact with trees. The utility points to climate change as the true culprit: the warming planet created conditions that makes such fires all but inevitable."

Costs of Extreme Heat Are Huge, But Hard to Quantify

More from Climate Liability News: "The blistering heat currently scorching much of the planet—from Japan to Europe to the United States—is the climate change impact that scientists can most definitively link to global warming. But unlike hurricanes or wildfires that mostly damage property, the costs of those heat waves are much harder to quantify because the impacts are absorbed primarily by people and not by property. Understanding those costs, however, is crucial for cities and states trying to protect their residents from climate impacts. They are working to calculate the toll of extreme heat, from decreasing outdoor worker productivity, to crop failures, cancelled flights and students’ decreasing ability to learn. Many of the estimates come from cities that have filed climate liability suits, seeking to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for those costs. New York City, for one, estimates in its complaint that its heat mitigation initiative, Cool Neighborhoods NYC, will cost more than $100 million and it tallies another $100 million in related public health care costs."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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