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Warm and unsettled through the weekend

Saturday Heat Advisory

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY... .HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY COUNTIES IN THE METROPOLITAN AREA. MORNING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX ACROSS MINNEAPOLIS AND ST PAUL WILL REACH 94 TO 98 DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE...THE EFFECTS OF THE HOT WEATHER WILL BE MORE KEENLY FELT IN THE URBANIZED CORE OF THE METRO.


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Friday's Visible Satellite Loop

Scattered showers and storms that developed across western MN pushed through the rest of the state through the evening. This is wast the visible satellite loop, which showed thunderstorms developing across the state.

Fall Color Map...

Yes, it's that time of the year again! Thanks to the MN DNR for there wonderful fall color update map. As you can see, there isn't much happening yet, but there are a couple of areas starting to show some fall signs... stay tuned.

See the Fall Color Update Map from the MN DNR HERE:

Warm and unsettled
By Todd Nelson

Happy September? Is it really Labor Day Weekend, already? WOW! That summer went fast, didn't it? Weather maps certainly don't look like meteorological fall, but I am not complaining. I'll take the warmth while I can get it.

According to NOAA's NCDC, Minneapolis typically averages 0.4 days at or above 90 degrees during the month of September. Last time we hit that mark was in 2013 when we had 3 days in the 90s! In fact, we hit 94 degrees twice! September 2013 ended up being nearly 5 degrees above average. This September, we're nearly running nearly 10 degrees above average and we will still be nearly 10 to 15 degrees above average (76 degrees) through the weekend!

Our sticky weather is compliments of a large ride of high pressure that has set up in the eastern two-thirds of the country over the past few days. An approaching storm system will help to enhance that heat and humidity through the weekend with rounds of showers and storms firing up through PM Sunday. The heaviest rain will stay across the northern half of the state, but a few strong storms PM Sunday could bring heavier rainfall to your backyard rain gauge. Next week, fall weather arrives.

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SATURDAY: Find some A/C. PM storms, mainly northern MN. Feels Like: 95F. High: 90. Winds: S 10-15mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers and storms. Low: 75. Winds: S 10-15mph

SUNDAY: Last hot day. Strong storm possible late. High: 87. Winds: S 15-25mph

LABOR DAY: Not as hot, sun fades late. Wake-up: 63. High: 80

TUESDAY: Back to school. PM rumble? Wake-up: 60. High: 78.

WEDNESDAY: Late day thunder possible. Wake-up: 58. High: 75.

THURSDAY: Breezy. Gradual clearing. Wake-up: 56. High: 72.

FRIDAY: Brisk sun. Wake-up: 52. High: 70.
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This Day in Weather History
September 5th

1990: Nine inches of rain fell over the next two days in Duluth, washing out a million dollars worth in roads.

1982: 77 mph winds were reported in Anoka County.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 5th

Average High: 76F (Record: 98F set in 1922)
Average Low: 57F (Record: 36F set in 1962)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 5th

Sunrise: 6:39am
Sunset: 7:43pm
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Moon Phase for September 5th at Midnight
0.9 Days After Last Quarter


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

The end is near... the end of the heat that is. Note that we will still be nearly 10 to 15 degrees above average through the weekend, but we gradually cool to near normal levels by next week. The extended forecast is suggesting a potentially even bigger cool down as we get closer to the middle part of the month.


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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests a pretty good chance of below average temperatures by the middle part of the month


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Saturday Weather Outlook

It'll be another warm day Saturday with highs approaching the 90F mark across the southern half of the state. Near 70F dewpoints will be widespread making it feel more like the low/mid 90s

Saturday Weather Outlook

Breezy south winds on Saturday will help push heat and humidity north through the Upper Midwest. Wind gusts could be near 20mph+ across the southern half of the state.

Saturday Weather Outlook

Saturday will be a little unsettled across the region with spotty showers and storms developing, mainly later in the day. The maps below suggest weather conditions possible by 2pm Saturday.


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Severe Threat Saturday

...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF THE EXPANSIVE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH TIME. AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO LINGER INVOF SD THROUGH THE DAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FACILITATE ADVANCE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...BOTH W AND E OF THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL.

Severe Sunday

...SUMMARY... A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. ...SYNOPSIS... MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES NEWD INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN...AND HEIGHTS FALL FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD/SEWD REACHING FROM WRN MN INTO ERN NEB BY 07/00Z AND CONTINUING TO WRN PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO SWRN KS BY 07/12Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Rainfall Potential

This slow moving, water logged storm will have potential rainfall amounts rather high across the northern half of the state. This particular model (NCEP NDFD) suggests nearly 1" to 3" through PM Monday.


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Fresh Mountain Snow... ??

Tuesday, September 1st was the start of Meteorological Fall and it's already starting to look a little wintry in the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies. Thanks to a fairly large trough of low pressure swinging through the western third of the country, temperatures are running nearly 10F to 20F+ below average.

"Fresh snow on the mountains around Stanley this morning. Webcam: Sawtooth Interpretive and Historical Association (SIHA)"

See more from the National Weather Service out of Boise Idaho HERE:


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Upper Level Storm Saturday

Here's an interesting map, which shows a fairly robust are of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. This storm is part of the driving force behind all the warmth in the eastern two-thirds of the country, while also dropping temperatures in the western third of the country to below average levels.

Highs From Average Saturday

The map below would suggest a tale of two different seasons, really. Note that locations in the western third of the nation will be nearly 10F to 20F below average, while areas in the eastern two-thirds of the nation will be nearly 10F to 15F above average.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows a fairly significant chunk of cooler than average temperatures in the middle part of the country by the middle part of the month. Meanwhile, areas on either coast may still be dealing with warmer than average readings.


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Update on the

What's Happening in the Tropics?

Did you know that we've only had 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin so far this year? NOAA released a recent article talking about our 2nd hurricane of the season (Fred) and how El Nino is impacting this year's season.

"El Niños tend to increase the amount of the storms in the Pacific Ocean, while acting to suppress their numbers in the Atlantic Ocean. As of the end of August, the Atlantic Ocean has seen six generally weak storms, only two of them hurricanes. Hurricane Fred may have been a hurricane for only a brief amount of time, but it still managed to set a record."

Read the full article from NOAA HERE:


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Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX


 

No change. Still hot, sticky and a little thundery through the weekend

Monsoonal Sky

Thanks to Randy Musil for this beautiful picture out of Surprise, AZ as a few monsoonal showers and storms were present in the evening sky a few nights ago. Great picture!

Summer's last gasp?
By Todd Nelson

I have to admit, I love summer. Don't get me wrong, the heat and humidity can get to any person, but it's nice to be able to walk outside and not have to be bundled up like Ralphie's brother, Randy, in the movie "A Christmas Story".

Shade and A/C is a person's best friend on a day like today. Suddenly, shaved ice or ice cold lemonade sounds more refreshing than a pork chop on a stick, doesn't it? Oh, don't worry, I'll still likely stuff my face with all my favorites at the Fair. It's a must! I only do it once a year.

Our sweaty September weather continues through the weekend with feels like temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints near 70 degrees will have you glistening even after a fresh shower. Enjoy it while you can (if you like this stuff) because fall-like weather is on the way next week!

A large trough of low pressure will slowly slide our way through the weekend, increasing thunder chances each day. Best chance of storms will be in far northwestern MN late Friday but that thunder risk increases for everybody PM Saturday and Sunday. A few strong storms and locally heavy downpours will remind you of mid summer.
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FRIDAY: Hello July! Hot and sticky. High: 89. Winds: SE 10-15 mph

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low: 72. Winds: SSE 5-10mph

SATURDAY: Find some A/C. PM storms, mainly northern MN. Feels Like: 95F. High: 90. Winds: S 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Last hot day. Strong storm possible late. Wake-up: 72. High: 86

LABOR DAY: Soggy AM, fresh PM breeze. Wake-up: 64. High: 79

TUESDAY: Back to school. Cooler start, PM thunder south. Wake-up: 58. High: 76.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing and cooler. Wake-up: 57. High: 72.

THURSDAY: More sun. Wake-up: 53. High: 70.
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This Day in Weather History
September 4th

1992: Early morning storms resulted in 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Hennepin, Dakota, Rice and Goodhue Counties.

1941: A late batch of tornadoes hit Minneapolis, New Brighton, and White Bear Lake, killing six people.

1925: The third consecutive day of 95 degrees or above in the Minneapolis area.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 4th

Average High: 76F (Record: 98F set in 1925)
Average Low: 58F (Record: 39F set in 1974)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 4th

Sunrise: 6:38am
Sunset: 7:45pm

*Daylight lost since yesterday: ~3 minutes and 1 second
*Daylight lost since summer solstice (June 21st): ~2 hours and 30 minutes
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Moon Phase for September 4th at Midnight
0.1 Day Before Last Quarter


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Sweaty September weather continues through the weekend with highs still well above average on the high and low side. High dewpoints will make it feel more like the low/mid 90s through Sunday before a cold front pushes through with possibly strong thunderstorms. Note the cooler weather post-front next week. The first FULL week of September will feel more like fall.


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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests that much of the Upper Midwest will have cooler than average temperatures by midmonth. For those of you that like the hot, sticky weather now, enjoy it because it'll likely feel like fall in a few short days!


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Friday Weather Outlook

Friday will, no doubt, be a very warm day for September. Highs will approach 90F with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, it'll feel more like the low to mid 90s! Find some A/C!!

Friday Weather Outlook

Wind conditions on Friday will also be a bit breezy, especially across western Minnesota and the Dakotas. Note that wind gusts there could be near 20mph+. The reason for the gusty winds is the approaching storm system, which will keep us hot, sticky and somewhat unsettled through the weekend.

Friday Weather Outlook

The first round of thunderstorms will push into far northwestern Minnesota late Friday with a few strong/severe storms possible and potential even some locally heavy rain. Much of the rest of the state will remain dry, hot and humid.


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Severe Threat Friday

The approaching storm system will bring a round of strong to possibly severe storms to parts of the Red River Valley late Friday. This will likely be the first round of many to push through the region this weekend. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has far northwestern Minnesota under a SLIGHT Risk of severe weather...

...SUMMARY... ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

Saturday Severe Threat

The storm sytem will creep a little closer on Saturday with more widely scattered showers and storms late afternoon/overnight. Some of the storms shaded in dark green could be strong to possibly severe with some locally heavy rainfall... Stay tuned.

Severe Threat Sunday

...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... NRN ROCKIES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY3 PERIOD AS 65KT 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS WY INTO CNTRL ND BY 07/00Z. HIGH PLAINS SFC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS TO A POSITION NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ND AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM ERN NEBRASKA...NWD INTO NRN MN. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LAG THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT...IT APPEARS ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. NAM IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST/BUOYANT THAN GFS...ROUGHLY DOUBLE...WITH SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE...IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...ACROSS THE MRGL RISK AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AND STRONGEST SHEAR/FORCING SOMEWHAT LAGGING THE SFC FRONT...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND WITH TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.

Rainfall Potential

The rainfall potential below (through midday Sunday) shows some of the heaviest across far northwestern Minnesota. However, rounds of strong thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will still be possible through the end of the weekend through much of the rest of the region.

5 Day Rainfall Outlook

Here's the 5 day rainfall outlook, which suggests that some of the heaviest rainfall through the weekend/early next week will be found across central/northern Minnesota. Several rounds of strong thunderstorms could possibly pump out close to 1" to 3" of rain...


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National Weather Outlook

Here's NOAA's weather outlook, which shows a blob of rain along the international border through early the early weekend. Rounds of heavy rain/thunder could make for some locally heavy rain amounts over the next 3 to 5 days.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests some of the heaviest rainfall potential from Montana to Minnesota into Canada with as much as 1" to 3"+ possible through early next week.


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500mb Outlook

The image below shows an impressive ridge of high pressure over the eastern two-thirds of the country on Friday, which is responsible for our current hot, sticky weather. Note the area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. This will be responsible for more fall-like weather conditions as we head into the first FULL week of September next week.

High Temperatures from Average on Friday

The map below corresponds to the 500mb map above. Note that the trough of low pressure and the ridge of high pressure (above) tend to mimic that of the cooler than average highs in the western U.S., while the ridge of high pressure tends to mimic that of the warmer than average highs in the eastern two-thirds of the country.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here's a wider view of the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from NOAA's CPC. Note that by midmonth, much of the middle U.S. will likely see below average temperatures, while those along the coastal communities will have above average readings.


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Active Pacific Continues

The Pacific remains active with 4 ongoing storms! From left to right, Kilo, Ignacio, Jimena and Kevin. The good news is that none of these storms will pose any major threat to any major landmass.

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Hurricane Jimena

Hurricane Jimean continued in the Pacific Ocean late Thursday as a category 2 hurricane. The good news is that this storm will continue to drift northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical Storm Kevin

Here's newly formed Tropical Storm Kevin in the Pacific Ocean.

What is El Nino Anyway?

You may have heard a lot of talk about El Nino lately, but what exactly is El Nino? NOAA has a great article, which was posted earlier this Spring:

"1.) El Niño:  A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to become reduced while rainfall increases over the tropical Pacific Ocean.  The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”).
2.) La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to increase while rainfall decreases over the central tropical Pacific Ocean.  The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger.
3.) Neutral:  Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average.  However, there are some instances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, but the atmosphere is not playing along (or vice versa)."

Read more HERE:

El Nino and it's Impacts on Northern California

Here's a video from the National Weather Service out of Sacremento, CA that explains how El Nino could impact nothern California:

See the video HERE:


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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week and weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX