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Soggy Monday. Chilly November Gale on Tuesday

Sunday's Fall Color
 
Despite some Saturday morning showers and a cloudier Sunday afternoon, the weekend turned out to be quite nice with some sunshine and mild temps. I hope you enjoyed it because this week will be much different with soggy weather through the first half of the week and chilly temps. 
 
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Twin Cities 7 Day
 
Here's a look at the 7 day forecast for the Twin Cities, which looks a bit chilly as we approach midweek with temps tumbling into the 40s by Tuesday. Our current storm system will blow through on Monday and Tuesday with scattered showers and strong winds. There could be enough lingering cold air in place for a light rain/snow mix on Wednesday. Friday morning we could have the season's first frost in the Twin Cities Metro.
 
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Monday's Weather Outlook
 
High temps on Monday will be a little cooler than average thanks to a storm system that will bring scattered showers to the region. High temps will only warm into the 40s and 50s across the state, which will be nearly -5F below average.
 
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Weather Outlook Late Week

Here's the weather outlook from AM Monday to PM Tuesday, which shows our next storm system blowing through the region. Scattered rain showers will continue on Monday and Tuesday with enough cold air to potentially mix in some light snow showers up north. Note that there will be a lot of wind with this system as it moves through, mainly on Tuesday when winds could gust up to 40mph.

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Precipitation Potential Through AM Wednesday
 
Our next storm system that is forecast to blow through the region will have the potential of dropping quite a bit of moisture. According to NOAA's NDFD, there could be some widespread 1"+ tallies across much of central and northeastern MN with some of the heaviest falling across the Arrowhead.
 
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2 Weeks Until Daylight Saving Time
 
Believe it or not, we are only 2 weeks away until daylight saving time. This year it will occur on Sunday, November 3rd. The good news is that we will have more daylight in the morning, but less light when you get home from work and school. The sunset in the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 2nd is at 6PM, but on Sunday, November 3rd, it will be around 5PM. By the way, the earliest sunset in the metro is 4:31PM during the first couple of weeks of December.
 
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Fall Colors Peaking!
 
One of my favorite things about fall is the the beautiful display of color that nature provides. Take a look that this picture from the Mille Lacs Kathio State Park that Sandy Hackenmueller snapped on October 8th. According to the MN DNR, much of the northern half of the state is already passed peak and with the winds as strong as they were on Friday, a lot of those leaves have been falling to the ground. We will have another strong wind day coming up on Tuesday, so more leaves will raining down over the coming days.
 
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MN Fall Color Update
 
According to the MN DNR, the latest fall color report suggests the northern half of the state are already passed peak, while the Twin Cities has yet to get into peak color. The fall colors will go fast, espeically with the expected strong winds on Tuesday. Enjoy the fall color while you can!
 
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Typical Peak Color Across the State

According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities see peak color around mid October. It's hard to believe, but the fall color is almost gone.

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How Does Weather Effect the Leaves?

Did you know that weather has a big impact on the fall color? Weather conditions that are either too wet or too dry can lead to premature displays or even dull, muted color displays. The best weather would be a warm, wet summer that gives way to sunny, cool fall days. Read more below:

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Minnesota Crop Progress & Condition - October 15th

"Corn dented or beyond was 98 percent, 2 weeks behind the 5-year average. Sixty-six percent of corn was mature, 20 days behind last year and 2 weeks behind normal. Corn harvested for grain reached 5 percent, 17 days behind last year and 13 days behind the average. Corn harvested for silage reached 78 percent this week, 2 weeks behind average. Corn condition was rated 52 percent good to excellent, declining from the previous week. Ninetytwo percent of soybeans were dropping leaves, 2 weeks behind last year and 10 days behind normal. Nineteen percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, 16 days behind average. Soybean condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, declining from the previous week." 
 
 
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Average First Frosts of the Season Nearing...

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th.  The Twin Cities got close on the 12th, but only dropped to 33F. The earliest frost was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.

 
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2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average, including the Twin Cities, which is nearly 11" above average so far this year and at its 2nd wettest start on record. Unbelieveably, Rochester is already at its wettest year on record and we still have some of October, November & December left to go!

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US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on October 15th), 0.00% of the state of Minnesota was either in a drought or abnormally dry! The last time 0.00% of the state was drought free was earlier this year in mid May. This has been an extremely wet year, no question!

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"Phenology: October 1st, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week:  "Taking time to contemplate what is happening in nature is one of the many aspects of Northern Community Radio that sets us apart from any other radio station.  Each day we bring you a phenology note where our resident phenologist John Latimer shares a note from his journals of more than 35 years of climate and nature data collection.  Each Tuesday we dig even deeper with the full Phenology Report.  If you appreciate this programming, become a member today or increase the contribution amount of your current membership to this one of a kind, rural, hip, environemntally conscious radio station! School is on!  We are excited to start hearing from our intrepid student reporters in classrooms around northern Minnesota!  If you are a teacher or work with kids, you are invited to join the Phenology Network on KAXE/KBXE!  John has created a curriculum spanning the whole school year and will connect with you on how to get your students observing nature and sending in their phenology reports. Send an email of interest along to get set up!"
 
 
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Points of Tropical Origin: October 11th - 20th

Tropical activity through the early part of October is still somewhat active, ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks.
 
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Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
 
Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season."
 
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8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended outlook for precipitation looks drier than average across much of the western half of the country. Meanwhile, it could be wetter than average for folks in the Southeast and into Alaska.
 
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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook through the end of the month looks quite chilly across much of the nation. However, folks in the Southeast and into Alaska will be warmer than average.


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Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of October and into early November. Note that readings will take a bit of a hit this week with highs only warming into the 40s. If the current forecast holds, it could be even chillier by Halloween.


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Warmest October Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of October, which shows only (2) 90F days on record. The most recent warmest day was 88 degrees back in 2011.

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Soggy Monday. Chilly November Gale on Tuesday
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Thanks to the Carpenters, I've got the song "Rainy days and Mondays" stuck in my head. Not sure about you, but I needed an extra shot of espresso this morning to put a little pep in my step after the long MEA weekend. Uffda!

Here we are, back to the grind and it's raining AGAIN! Prior to today's rain, MSP was sitting at the 2nd wettest start to any year on record (January 1st - October 20th). Incredibly, we are also only 2.51 inches away from the wettest year on record of 40.32 inches set in 2016.

Today's weather will be fit for a duck. Scattered showers will linger through the first half of the day tomorrow with rainfall tallies exceeding 1 inch across the northern half of the state.

Temps tumble into the 40s on Tuesday with winds howling out of the northwest at 20 to 40 mph! Clearing skies Thursday night could lead to our first official frost of the season in the metro.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, temps look to be trending colder than average by the end of the month. Extra layers may be needed by Halloween!
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Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Scattered showers. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 55.

MONDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers and breezy. Winds: WNW 15-35. Low: 48.

TUESDAY: Windy with lingering rain and windy. Winds: NW 20-40. High: 45.

WEDNESDAY: Chilly breezy. Light rain/snow mix. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 33 High: 45.

THURSDAY: Peeks of sun. Drying out. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 35 High: 42.

FRIDAY: Frosty start. Nothring rough. Winds: WSW 5-10. Wake-up: 31. High: 48.

SATURDAY: Breezy again. Still dry. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 37. High: 54.

SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NNW 5-10. Wake-up: 37.. High: 51.
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This Day in Weather History
October 21st

1916: A three-day blizzard ends. Also, a sharp temperature drop occurs at Bird Island, falling from 65 to 13.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 21st

Average High: 56F (Record: 88F set in 1947)
Average Low: 38F (Record: 16F set in 1913)

Record Rainfall: 1.76" set in 1894
Record Snowfall: 0.4" set in 2002
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 21st

Sunrise: 7:36am
Sunset: 6:18pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 42 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 58 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 4 hours & 55 minutes
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Moon Phase for October 21st at Midnight
0.8 Days After Last Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

"The Orionid meteor shower will peak early this week, with the best morning likely being Tuesday, October 22. Try watching on the mornings of October 21 and 23, too. In 2019, the moon will be at or just past its last quarter phase at the shower’s peak. That means it’ll be up before dawn, interfering with the best time of night for meteor-watching. Moonlight will surely decrease the numbers of meteors you’ll see at this year’s Orionid shower, but some meteors will be able to overcome the moonlit glare. The moon is waning so, with each passing morning, there’s less moonlight. When to watch? We recommend Tuesday morning, October 22, with the foreknowledge of that bright moon joining you. Try situating yourself in the shadow of a barn or mountain, to keep moonlight from ruining your night vision. The Orionids start producing meteors at late evening but the number of meteors increase after midnight. Typically, the greatest number of Orionid meteors streak the sky during the few hours before dawn. On a moonless night, you can see as many as 10 to 15 meteors per hour at the Orionid’s peak. These meteors – vaporizing bits of comet debris from Halley’s Comet – look like streaks of light in the night sky. Many people call them shooting stars. Will you see any Orionids in the moonlight? We can’t say. We do know that many do catch bright meteors in moonlight, as Eliot Herman in Tucson did earlier this month:"

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

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Average Tornadoes By State in October
 
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in October is quite a bit less across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. Note that Minnesota typically sees only 1 tornado, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). By the way, the last October tornado in Minnesota was on October 11th, 2013 in Traverse county located in western MN. That tornado produced EF1 damage near Charlesville, MN.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
 
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,525 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through October 4th suggests that there have been a total of 1,532 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1273. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,819 tornadoes were reported.
 
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Monday Weather Outlook
 
Here's the weather outlook for Monday, which looks pretty mild along and east of the Mississippi River Valley, while folks west of the Mississippi will be colder than average with the exception of California.
 
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National Weather Outlook
 
Another storm will slide through the Northwest and intensify over the Central US over the next couple of days. Areas of heavy rain and possibly even a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out across the Southern US.
 

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Heavy Ranifall Potential
 
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts eastern half of the nation and especially across the Gulf Coast States where several inches of rain can't be ruled out.
 
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Snowfall Potential Through Tuesday
 
Here's NOAA's NDFD snowfall potential through AM Tuesday. Note that the high elevations from the Cascades to the northern Rockies and across parts of Colorado will see some of the heaviest snowfall. Some of the heaviest tallies could approach 6" to 12" or more in the highest elevations.
 

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"Tiny particles lead to brighter clouds in the tropics"
 
"When clouds loft tropical air masses higher in the atmosphere, that air can carry up gases that form into tiny particles, starting a process that may end up brightening lower-level clouds, according to a CIRES-led study published today in Nature. Clouds alter Earth's radiative balance, and ultimately climate, depending on how bright they are. And the new paper describes a process that may occur over 40 percent of the Earth's surface, which may mean today's climate models underestimate the cooling impact of some clouds. "Understanding how these particles form and contribute to cloud properties in the tropics will help us better represent clouds in climate models and improve those models," said Christina Williamson, a CIRES scientist working in NOAA's Chemical Sciences Division and the paper's lead author."
 
 
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"Trees That Survived California Drought May Hold Clue To Climate Resilience"

"When California's historic five-year drought finally relented a few years ago the tally of dead trees in the Sierra Nevada was higher than almost anyone expected: 129 million. Most are still standing, the dry patches dotting the mountainsides. But some trees did survive the test of heat and drought. Now, scientists are racing to collect them, and other species around the globe, in the hope that these "climate survivors" have a natural advantage that will allow them to better cope with a warming world. On the north shore of Lake Tahoe, Patricia Maloney, a UC Davis forest and conservation biologist, hunts for these survivors. Most people focus on the dead trees, their brown pine needles obvious against the glittering blue of the lake. But Maloney tends not to notice them. "I look for the good," she says. "Like in people, you look for the good, not the bad. I do the same in forest systems."

See more from NPR HERE:

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"Scientists suggest creating a detailed 3D map of Earth before we mess everything up even more"

"Humans are affecting Earth’s climate, and there’s a wealth of scientific evidence to support that fact. We’ve already begun to see some seriously troubling trends that may be associated with our altering of the climate, including mass die-offs of ocean coral, widespread drought, and increasingly powerful and unpredictable storm systems. With all that in mind, scientists from Colorado State University are doing what they can to preserve a record of Earth before things too out of hand. It’s called The Earth Archive, and there’s a good reason why it should be a high priority. Researchers across all scientific fields have provided mankind with insights into the history of our planet, as well as the animals, plants, and civilizations that call it home. We’ve come a long way, but there’s still so much we don’t know about our planet’s history, and various climate-related factors put us at ever-greater risk of losing those discoveries forever."

See more from BGR HERE:


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"600M-year-old ice age caused 'Snowball Earth,' radically changing planet's climate"
 
"There is already some evidence that suggested these rocks took a long time to form, but no one had been able to explain why this might have occurred," Nordsvan continued. "What is intriguing about the period following Snowball Earth is that the planet surface was essentially completely renovated. It appears that the extended glacial period removed all the beaches, deserts, rivers and floodplains, and reset important Earth systems that took millions of years to recover." One of the study's co-authors, Milo Barham, said the discovery may be able to lead researchers to new findings on how complex life evolved. "The melting of ice sheets after Snowball Earth caused a dramatic rise in sea level, ultimately flooding the continents, driving a remarkable retreat of shorelines and the development of clearer ocean water," Barham said. "Researchers have long been aware that the timing of Snowball Earth and the development of more complex life seem to have coincided, but no one has really thought about how the oceans being starved of sediment might have helped ancient organisms thrive in the oceans," Barham added."

See more from Fox News HERE:

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"NASA's Hubble space telescope just took incredible photos of a visiting comet from another star system"

"The second interstellar visitor ever detected is plummeting into our solar system, and NASA's Hubble telescope just snapped a clear photo of it. The comet, known as 2I/Borisov, came from another star system, though astronomers don't know exactly where yet. It's named for the amateur astronomer who first spotted it on August 30: Gennady Borisov, who lives in Crimea. Nearly a month later, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) confirmed the object's interstellar origins. The comet is hurtling past the sun at speeds of 110,000 miles per hour, then is expected to fly near Mars this month, passing outside the planet's orbit and getting no closer to Earth than 190 million miles (300 million kilometers). 2I/Borisov is only the second interstellar object ever found to be passing through our solar system. The first such object, the mysterious and cigar-shaped 'Oumuamua (which a few scientists controversially argued could be alien in origin), sped past Earth at a distance of 15 million miles in October 2017."

See more from Business Insider HERE:

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"As The Climate Warms, Companies Scramble To Calculate The Risk To Their Profits"

"Every year, the company Ingredion buys millions of tons of corn and cassava from farmers and turns them into starches and sugars that go into foods such as soft drinks, yogurt and frozen meals. Lots of things can go wrong along the way. Weather can destroy crops. Machinery can break. Lately, though, Ingredion's top executives have been worried about a new kind of risk: what might happen on a hotter planet. "That could be anything, [from] where climate change is impacting the crops we purchase, to water availability driven by climate change," says Brian Nash, Ingredion's head of sustainability. Ingredion isn't alone. "Any publicly traded company, I think, is under increasing pressure from the investment community to articulate what we see as our upcoming climate risk," Nash says. That's partly because of prodding from an international organization called the Financial Stability Board, which set up a task force chaired by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to help companies voluntarily disclose such risks."

See more from NPR HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Milder Sunday. A Parade of Cold Fronts Ahead

Twin Cities 7 Day
 
Here's a look at the 7 day forecast for the Twin Cities, which looks a bit chilly as we head into the week ahead. High temps from Tuesday to Friday will only warm into the 40s, which will be below by nearly -10F for this mid October. With that said, enjoy Sunday's milder weather with highs in the 60s.
 
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Sunday's Weather Outlook
 
High temps on Sunday will be fairly mild across the region with readings 50s and 60s across the state, which will be nearly +5 to +10F above average for some. It looks like we'll start off with sunshine, but the day will turn grayer as clouds move in ahead our next weather maker. Rain will slide during the overnight hours and could last into Monday.
 
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Weather Outlook Late Week

Here's the weather outlook from midday Sunday to midday Tuesday, which shows our next storm system swirling through the region. It appears that much of the day Sunday will be dry, but rain showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will arrive into the evening or overnight hours. Scattered rain showers look to continue on Monday and perhaps through the first half of Tuesday. Winds will also pick up significantly on Tuesday with wind gusts nearing 40mph!

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Precipitation Potential Through AM Tuesday
 
Our next storm system that is forecast to blow through the region will have the potential of dropping quite a bit of moisture. According to NOAA's NDFD, there could be some widespread 1"+ tallies across much of central and northeastern MN with some of the heaviest falling across the Arrowhead.
 
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2 Weeks Until Daylight Saving Time
 
Believe it or not, we are only 2 weeks away until daylight saving time. This year it will occur on Sunday, November 3rd. The good news is that we will have more daylight in the morning, but less light when you get home from work and school. The sunset in the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 2nd is at 6PM, but on Sunday, November 3rd, it will be around 5PM. By the way, the earliest sunset in the metro is 4:31PM during the first couple of weeks of December.
 
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Fall Colors Peaking!
 
One of my favorite things about fall is the the beautiful display of color that nature provides. Take a look that this picture from the Mille Lacs Kathio State Park that Sandy Hackenmueller snapped on October 8th. According to the MN DNR, much of the northern half of the state is already passed peak and with the winds as strong as they were on Friday, a lot of those leaves have been falling to the ground. We will have another strong wind day coming up on Tuesday, so more leaves will raining down over the coming days.
 
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MN Fall Color Update
 
According to the MN DNR, the latest fall color report suggests the northern half of the state are already passed peak, while the Twin Cities has yet to get into peak color. The fall colors will go fast, espeically with the expected strong winds on Tuesday. Enjoy the fall color while you can!
 
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Typical Peak Color Across the State

According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities see peak color around mid October. It's hard to believe, but the fall color is almost gone.

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How Does Weather Effect the Leaves?

Did you know that weather has a big impact on the fall color? Weather conditions that are either too wet or too dry can lead to premature displays or even dull, muted color displays. The best weather would be a warm, wet summer that gives way to sunny, cool fall days. Read more below:

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Minnesota Crop Progress & Condition - October 15th

"Corn dented or beyond was 98 percent, 2 weeks behind the 5-year average. Sixty-six percent of corn was mature, 20 days behind last year and 2 weeks behind normal. Corn harvested for grain reached 5 percent, 17 days behind last year and 13 days behind the average. Corn harvested for silage reached 78 percent this week, 2 weeks behind average. Corn condition was rated 52 percent good to excellent, declining from the previous week. Ninetytwo percent of soybeans were dropping leaves, 2 weeks behind last year and 10 days behind normal. Nineteen percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, 16 days behind average. Soybean condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, declining from the previous week." 
 
 
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Average First Frosts of the Season Nearing...

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th.  The Twin Cities got close on the 12th, but only dropped to 33F. The earliest frost was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.

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2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average, including the Twin Cities, which is nearly 11" above average so far this year and at its 2nd wettest start on record. Unbelieveably, Rochester is already at its wettest year on record and we still have some of October, November & December left to go!

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US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on October 15th), 0.00% of the state of Minnesota was either in a drought or abnormally dry! The last time 0.00% of the state was drought free was earlier this year in mid May. This has been an extremely wet year, no question!

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"Phenology: October 1st, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week:  "Taking time to contemplate what is happening in nature is one of the many aspects of Northern Community Radio that sets us apart from any other radio station.  Each day we bring you a phenology note where our resident phenologist John Latimer shares a note from his journals of more than 35 years of climate and nature data collection.  Each Tuesday we dig even deeper with the full Phenology Report.  If you appreciate this programming, become a member today or increase the contribution amount of your current membership to this one of a kind, rural, hip, environemntally conscious radio station! School is on!  We are excited to start hearing from our intrepid student reporters in classrooms around northern Minnesota!  If you are a teacher or work with kids, you are invited to join the Phenology Network on KAXE/KBXE!  John has created a curriculum spanning the whole school year and will connect with you on how to get your students observing nature and sending in their phenology reports. Send an email of interest along to get set up!"
 
 
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor
 
Here's a look at Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor from earlier Saturday, which showed a fairly large system over the southeastern part of the nation. This storm will bring areas of heavy rain and gusty winds from Florida and the Gulf Coast States to the Mid-Atlantic region through the rest of the weekend and early next week.
 
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Tracking Nestor
 
Here's the offical track for Nestor, which shows the storm sliding northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region through the rest of the weekend. By Monday, the storm should be back in the open waters of the Atlantic, but gusty winds and areas of heavy rain will be likely as the storm slides through the region.
 
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Rainfall From Nestor
 
Nestor could bring areas of heavy rain to the region with some 1" to 3"+ tallies possible, especially from eastern Georgia to the Carolinas and the Delmarva Peninsula. This rain will be very beneficial to some areas that are currently dealing with drought.
 

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Points of Tropical Origin: October 11th - 20th

Tropical activity through the early part of October is still somewhat active, ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks.
 
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Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
 
Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season."
 
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8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended outlook for precipitation looks drier than average across much of the western half of the country. Meanwhile, it could be wetter than average for folks along the Eastern Seaboard and into Alaska.
 
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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook through the end of the month looks quite chilly across much of the Central US. However, folks along the West Coast and into Alaska will be warmer than average.


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Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of October and into early November. Note that readings will still be fairly mild through the weekend, but we take a bit of a hit this week with highs only warming into the 40s. If the current forecast holds, it could be even chillier by Halloween.

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Warmest October Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of October, which shows only (2) 90F days on record. The most recent warmest day was 88 degrees back in 2011.

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Milder Sunday. A Parade of Cold Fronts Ahead
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

I just got back from Arizona with my wife and 2 kids. We managed to squeeze in a trip to see my parents who escaped the Minnesota winters 6 years ago and haven't looked back since. We had good family time, pool time and lots of bogeys on the golf course. What else could you ask for?

Not sure I could be a meteorologist in the desert though, I would get too bored. I think I counted a dozen clouds during our entire 7 day trip. However, I can see why snowbirds trade in their snow shovels for golf clubs from November to April. It's a beautiful place!

After Saturday's afternoon sunshine, today will turn cloudy as another storm system approaches from the west. Much of the day will be dry and still somewhat mild, but rain moves in overnight. A steady soaking lingers Monday and turns to a cold November gale on Tuesday as temps tumble into the 40s. Some spots could see an inch of rain or more as rain fades late Tuesday.

Chilly sun returns late week, but extended forecasts suggest an even colder front before Halloween! Sounds spooky!
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Mild. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 63.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and rumbles. Winds: ESE 10. Low: 48.

MONDAY: Scattered showers. Breezy winds. Winds: WSW 10-20. High: 55.

TUESDAY: Windy. Colder rain. Few slushy flakes? Winds: WNW 15-35. Wake-up: 40. High: 46.

WEDNESDAY: Chilly breezy. Light rain/snow mix. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 35 High: 46.

THURSDAY: Feels like November. More sunshine. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 34 High: 43.

FRIDAY: Bright sunshine. Still quite chilly. Winds: WSW 5-10. Wake-up: 32. High: 45.

SATURDAY: Strong cold front approaches. Winds: SSW 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 51.
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This Day in Weather History
October 20th

2002: Heavy snow impacts central Minnesota. It fell in a 10-20 mile wide band from southeast North Dakota to around Grantsburg, Wisconsin. Little Falls picked up 9 inches.

1916: Accumulating snow falls in south central Minnesota with 4.5 inches recorded in New Ulm, 4 inches in Farmington and Hutchinson, 3.5 inches in Montevideo, and 3 inches in Faribault.

1835: 6 inches of snow falls at Ft. Snelling.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 20th

Average High: 56F (Record: 83F set in 1953)
Average Low: 38F (Record: 18F set in 1960)

Record Rainfall: 2.64" set in 1934
Record Snowfall: 3.0" set in 1916
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 20th

Sunrise: 7:35am
Sunset: 6:20pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 45 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 59 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 4 hours & 52 minutes
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Moon Phase for October 20th at Midnight
0.2 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

"The Orionid meteor shower will peak early this week, with the best morning likely being Tuesday, October 22. Try watching on the mornings of October 21 and 23, too. In 2019, the moon will be at or just past its last quarter phase at the shower’s peak. That means it’ll be up before dawn, interfering with the best time of night for meteor-watching. Moonlight will surely decrease the numbers of meteors you’ll see at this year’s Orionid shower, but some meteors will be able to overcome the moonlit glare. The moon is waning so, with each passing morning, there’s less moonlight. When to watch? We recommend Tuesday morning, October 22, with the foreknowledge of that bright moon joining you. Try situating yourself in the shadow of a barn or mountain, to keep moonlight from ruining your night vision. The Orionids start producing meteors at late evening but the number of meteors increase after midnight. Typically, the greatest number of Orionid meteors streak the sky during the few hours before dawn. On a moonless night, you can see as many as 10 to 15 meteors per hour at the Orionid’s peak. These meteors – vaporizing bits of comet debris from Halley’s Comet – look like streaks of light in the night sky. Many people call them shooting stars. Will you see any Orionids in the moonlight? We can’t say. We do know that many do catch bright meteors in moonlight, as Eliot Herman in Tucson did earlier this month:"

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

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Average Tornadoes By State in October
 
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in October is quite a bit less across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. Note that Minnesota typically sees only 1 tornado, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). By the way, the last October tornado in Minnesota was on October 11th, 2013 in Traverse county located in western MN. That tornado produced EF1 damage near Charlesville, MN.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
 
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,525 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.
 
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2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through October 4th suggests that there have been a total of 1,532 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1273. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,819 tornadoes were reported.
 
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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Here's the weather outlook for Sunday, which looks pretty mild across the Central US with temps running nearly +5F to +10F above average. However, temps along the Front Range to the Pacific Northwest will be running below average by -5F to nearly -15F below average.
 
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National Weather Outlook
 
Nestor will slide through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic region through the rest of the weekend with gusty winds and areas of locally heavy rain. Meanwhile, another storm will slide through the Northwest and intensify over the Central US over the next couple of days. Areas of heavy rain and possibly even a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out across the Southern US.
 

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Heavy Ranifall Potential
 
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the Southeastern US as Nestor slides through the region. There will also be additional heavy precipitation across parts of the Central US as our next storm system slides through early next week. Meanwhile, folks in the Southwest will remain dry over the next 7 days.
 
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Snowfall Potential Through Tuesday
 
Here's NOAA's NDFD snowfall potential through AM Tuesday. Note that the high elevations from the Cascades to the northern Rockies and across parts of Colorado will see some of the heaviest snowfall. Some of the heaviest tallies could approach 6" to 12" or more in the highest elevations.
 
 
"600M-year-old ice age caused 'Snowball Earth,' radically changing planet's climate"
 
"There is already some evidence that suggested these rocks took a long time to form, but no one had been able to explain why this might have occurred," Nordsvan continued. "What is intriguing about the period following Snowball Earth is that the planet surface was essentially completely renovated. It appears that the extended glacial period removed all the beaches, deserts, rivers and floodplains, and reset important Earth systems that took millions of years to recover." One of the study's co-authors, Milo Barham, said the discovery may be able to lead researchers to new findings on how complex life evolved. "The melting of ice sheets after Snowball Earth caused a dramatic rise in sea level, ultimately flooding the continents, driving a remarkable retreat of shorelines and the development of clearer ocean water," Barham said. "Researchers have long been aware that the timing of Snowball Earth and the development of more complex life seem to have coincided, but no one has really thought about how the oceans being starved of sediment might have helped ancient organisms thrive in the oceans," Barham added."

See more from Fox News HERE:

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"NASA's Hubble space telescope just took incredible photos of a visiting comet from another star system"

"The second interstellar visitor ever detected is plummeting into our solar system, and NASA's Hubble telescope just snapped a clear photo of it. The comet, known as 2I/Borisov, came from another star system, though astronomers don't know exactly where yet. It's named for the amateur astronomer who first spotted it on August 30: Gennady Borisov, who lives in Crimea. Nearly a month later, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) confirmed the object's interstellar origins. The comet is hurtling past the sun at speeds of 110,000 miles per hour, then is expected to fly near Mars this month, passing outside the planet's orbit and getting no closer to Earth than 190 million miles (300 million kilometers). 2I/Borisov is only the second interstellar object ever found to be passing through our solar system. The first such object, the mysterious and cigar-shaped 'Oumuamua (which a few scientists controversially argued could be alien in origin), sped past Earth at a distance of 15 million miles in October 2017."

See more from Business Insider HERE:

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"As The Climate Warms, Companies Scramble To Calculate The Risk To Their Profits"

"Every year, the company Ingredion buys millions of tons of corn and cassava from farmers and turns them into starches and sugars that go into foods such as soft drinks, yogurt and frozen meals. Lots of things can go wrong along the way. Weather can destroy crops. Machinery can break. Lately, though, Ingredion's top executives have been worried about a new kind of risk: what might happen on a hotter planet. "That could be anything, [from] where climate change is impacting the crops we purchase, to water availability driven by climate change," says Brian Nash, Ingredion's head of sustainability. Ingredion isn't alone. "Any publicly traded company, I think, is under increasing pressure from the investment community to articulate what we see as our upcoming climate risk," Nash says. That's partly because of prodding from an international organization called the Financial Stability Board, which set up a task force chaired by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to help companies voluntarily disclose such risks."

See more from NPR HERE:

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