Cool October In The Twin Cities
October highs so far in the Twin Cities.
Feel like it's been a cool month across the region? Even though we are in October and - I'm hopefully not breaking news - it does start to cool down across the state, you could say this month has been a bit cool even by October standards. In the Twin Cities, we have only had two days with a high of 70+ (we average six for the entire month) and three days with a high of 60+ (average: 15).
October departure from average highs in the Twin Cities.
That means we see a lot of blue on the departure from average high calendar for the month of October. Only four days through Sunday have had a high that was above average, with the greatest positive departure from average high (+15 degrees) occurring both the 3rd and 18th when we did see the highs pop into the 70s.
October departure from average average temperatures in the Twin Cities.
Here's the daily average temperature departure from average (factoring in both the high and low for each day). There's a lot of blue here as well as we've only recorded three days this month with an above-average average temperature. The average temperature so far this month is 45.6 degrees, which is actually only 5.3 degrees below average. However, it is good enough for the 10th coldest first 21 days of October on record. It appears we'll have more below average highs through the end of the month with only 40s and 50s expected - more on that in a moment!
Lemon Dream: Leaves Ripen as Temperatures Slip
By Paul Douglas
"Bittersweet October. The mellow, messy, leaf-kicking, perfect pause between the opposing miseries of summer and winter" wrote Carol Bishop Hipps. I couldn't have said it better myself.
In the near term Mother Nature appears to be under the influence of LSD: the scene outside my window resembles an explosion at a paint factory; the trees about to get a windblown undressing.
I don't expect any weather-panic in the near term. We are less than 2 months away from the Winter Solstice, when the sun is lowest in the southern sky. Emboldened cold fronts will continue to sweep out of Canada; each one preceded by rain, snow or a mix thereof.
Another welcome ration of sunshine today and Wednesday gives way to periods of rain Thursday into Saturday. By Sunday the atmosphere may be cold enough for a little wet snow to mix in. ECMWF hints at another mix of rain and snow before Halloween. By the way, the "European" model hints at upper 30s for highs on Halloween.
NOAA insists that a brewing El Nino may tip the scales in favor of a milder winter for Minnesota. I hope they're right.
Extended Twin Cities Forecast
TUESDAY: Brilliant sunshine. High 47. Low 29. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, clouds increase late. High 50. Low 40. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Periods of light rain. High 45. Low 42. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: Showery rains linger. High 48. Low 44. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind W 7-12 mph.
SATURDAY: Showers slowly taper, still damp. High 50. Low 39. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Rain may mix with a little wet snow. High 43. Low 36. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
MONDAY: Skies brighten, a nicer day. High 47. Low 30. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
This Day in Weather History
1899: An unseasonably warm day occurs in the Twin Cities, with a high of 82.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
Average High: 55F (Record: 82F set in 1899)
Average Low: 37F (Record: 17F set in 1936)
Average Precipitation: 0.07" (Record: 1.01" set in 1995)
Average Snow: 0.0" (Record: 1.4" in 1995)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Sunrise: 7:39 AM
Sunset: 6:14 PM
*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 35 minutes and 19 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 56 seconds
*Latest Sunrise Before DST Ends: November 3rd (7:54 AM)
*Next Sunrise Of 6:00 PM Or Earlier: November 2nd (5:59 PM)
*When Do We Dip Below 10 Hours Of Daylight?: November 5th (9 hours, 58 minutes, 38 seconds)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
Tuesday will be a mainly sunny, cool, and less windy day across Minnesota. Highs will range from the 30s up north to maybe a 50 degree reading in southwest Minnesota.
Highs on Tuesday will be a good 5-15 degrees below average for October 22nd.
Highs will remain fairly steady for the foreseeable future, stuck in the 40s and 50s with no big warm ups or cool downs in sight.
We’ll remain dry through Wednesday in the Twin Cities, but then we head back toward a wetter pattern for the second half of the week into the weekend. The good news is this looks to be a light rain or drizzle, so significant rainfall accumulations aren’t currently expected.
National Weather Forecast
On Tuesday a cold front will continue to dive south and east across the country, bringing rain and snow chances across parts of the Northeast. A stationary front near the Gulf Coast will bring rain chances from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. An upper-level trough will bring rain chances (as well as higher elevation snow) to parts of the Four Corners and central/southern Rockies. And to round it all off, showers will be possible in the Pacific Northwest as a cold front moves inland.
The heaviest rain through 7 PM Wednesday is expected across Texas, with 1-3"+ possible. Some of this could be influenced by Willa in the Pacific.
Speaking of Willa, here's a look at this dangerous hurricane Monday off the Pacific Coast of Mexico. As of Monday morning, the storm had strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds.
The system will track right into Mexico on Tuesday as a very strong system, capable of hurricane-force winds, heavy rain, and dangerous storm surge.
Parts of the Rockies and northern Maine could pick up 6"+ of snow through 7 PM Wednesday, with lesser amounts possible in parts up upstate New York and into Wyoming.
Meanwhile, we will be watching the potential of a coastal low forming as we head into the weekend across the East Coast. This system would have the potential to bring heavy rain, snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding along with it. It is too early for exact details, as this system could swing further inland or further out to sea. It will be a system to keep an eye on over the next several days, however.
The most important science policy issue in every state
Popular Science has more: "Wildfires burning around the West. Rising seas lapping at the East. Animal feces, coal ash, and fertilizer fouling waterways from the Carolinas to the Midwest. Bridges, roads, and pipelines crumbling across the country. With the midterm elections less than a month away, communities across the United States face some of the most formidable scientific, environmental, and technological challenges in decades. On November 6, voters from Alaska to Florida will choose not just their next governor, state representative, or member of Congress, but to some degree how we live for decades to come. “This is the most important election of our lifetime,” says Bill Holland, State Policy Director for the League of Conservation Voters. In the 36 gubernatorial and 470 congressional races around the country, some of these challenges, like opioids and fossil fuels, are campaign issues, while others, such as climate change’s role in severe wildfires, don’t appear on any candidates’ platform. But, whether these matters are on their minds, the victors will face them once sworn in. Their decisions will help shape how well storm-ravaged communities adapt, whether the water is safe to drink, how open our internet will be, and more."
A new wind turbine inspired by a palm tree, big as the Empire State Building
More from Marketplace: "The Energy Information Administration says the United States got about 11 percent of its energy from renewable sources last year. Climate scientists say that's going to have to go up a lot to ward off the worst effects of climate change. The Department of Energy says the U.S. is one of the fastest-growing markets for wind power in the world. That's mostly on land. Eric Loth, at the University of Virginia, is an engineer who's part of a team building the next generation of offshore wind turbines. Those turbines towering over fields or deserts usually produce 5 megawatts of power each. "We want to have turbines as large as 50 megawatts,” Loth said. “And the size of that would be like the Empire State Building, even larger. So you're talking about being able to power a small city with one of these wind farms. And I think that's where we're going. That's where the future is.""
Environmental Regulation Has Helped Cut Deaths From Air Pollution in Half, Study Finds
More from Earther: "There are plenty of reasons to be worried about air quality these days, from the Environmental Protection Agency killing an expert panel on dangerous particulate matter to the Trump administration’s plan to scrap mercury regulations. But today, we got some good news to remind everyone about the value of environmental regulations that keep pollution in check. Air pollution is killing fewer people than it used to, according to a study published in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Journal Friday. Deaths related particulate matter (nasty stuff that gets lodged in the lungs and can reach the heart) dropped more than 50 percent nationwide between 1990 and 2010—largey thanks to regulations like the Clean Air Act and federal and state rules on vehicle emissions, according to the report’s authors, who include researchers from the EPA and Department of Energy."
- D.J. Kayser