Balmy Tuesday, Then a Cascade of Cool Fronts
Junk in, junk out. The accuracy of any model depends not only on the assumptions of that model, but the quality of the data going into the algorithms. Sketchy or incomplete data fueling a simulation will lead to inaccurate results. Not enough data or tests will skew the (COVID-19) results.
I've wrestled with "which model to believe" for 40 years. I have sympathy for health officials setting public expectations about COVID-19. If there's rough consensus from multiple models, if they all pretty much agree, confidence levels go way up.
Early showers give way to lukewarm sunshine and 60s later today. A few backyard thermometers may flash 70F. Just try and stay out of the yard.
Wednesday showers mark the leading edge of a cooler push; daytime highs in the 40s by late week.
A reinforcing cold front arrives this weekend with a chilly breeze and a high probability of jackets early next week. A slush-storm may hit Chicago next Tuesday.
Too close for comfort. Deep breaths. Yes, a Minnesota spring is a morbidly-fickle beast.
COVID-19 Mortality Projections for the USA courtesy of Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Warming Trend Latter Half of April. After a rerun of early March next week GFS shows a milder, Pacific flow returning by the third week of April, suggesting a return to average or above average temperatures within 2 weeks, give or take. Mostly take.
Mixed Start to the Month of April. Dr. Mark Seeley reports at Minnesota WeatherTalk: "The first two days of April brought mixed weather to the state. Many parts of southern and eastern Minnesota enjoyed mild, warmer than normal temperatures (commonly highs in the 60s F). But in the west and northwest (Red River Valley) a winter storm brought a mixture of significant precipitation, including rain, ice, and snow, with colder than normal temperatures. Roads were snow covered in some areas, while other areas reported ice on the roads late on Thursday afternoon and into early Friday morning. Wind Chill values dropped into the teens and single digits and travel was difficult in some areas. Snowfall amounts in the western counties ranged from 1 inch to 4 inches in many spots, with Crookston reporting 9 inches and Karlstad reporting 11 inches..."
2020 Hurricane Forecast: Above Average Intensity. Here's an excerpt from Forbes: "Those extra goods in your pantry may be useful for more than one reason. As if 2020 has not already walloped us beyond belief, brace yourself for more of nature’s power: Because of warm seas and favorable weather patterns, this Atlantic hurricane season could include a greater-than-average number of major hurricanes. Forecasters from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, led by research scientist Phil Klotzbach, announced on Thursday that although there are 2.7 major hurricanes during a typical season — between June 1 and Nov. 30 — eight hurricanes are expected this year. And this includes four major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour..."
Hurricane Season On Top of a Pandemic Will Be a Nightmare. Here's a clip from a post at Gizmodo: "...However, the nation needs a coordinated response with all officials on board if the U.S. wants to avoid an ultra-disastrous hurricane season, Samantha Montano, an assistant professor of emergency management and disaster science at the University of Nebraska Omaha, told Earther. “We really need particularly elected officials to be doing everything possible to get the covid situation under control as quickly as possible,” Montano said. “We need to try to get ourselves out of these peaks of the covid curve so that they are not aligning with hurricane season as much as we can.” Hurricanes are disastrous enough without the backdrop of a pandemic..."
Image credit: NOAA.
60 F. high yesterday at MSP.
53 F. average Twin Cities high on April 6.
53 F. maximum temperature on April 6, 2019.
April 7, 1857: A cold snap hits the United States, with snow reported in every state.
TUESDAY: AM shower, mild PM sunshine. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 68
WEDNESDAY: Gusty winds, passing rain shower. Winds: NW 15-30+. Wake-up: 44. High: 57
THURSDAY: Cold wind, few sprinkles, flurries. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 32. High: 45
FRIDAY: More sunshine, less wind, still chilly. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 29. High: 46
SATURDAY: Few showers, then partial clearing. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 37. High: 51
SUNDAY: Cool wind, feels like mid-March. Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High: 47
MONDAY: Partly sunny and brisk. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 29. High: 42
Why is Climate Change So Unfair? Because the poorest of the poor are first to experience the impacts of a more volatile climate. Grist explains: "...Some of those demographic factors, like age, race, and gender, aren’t under people’s control. And studying the history of a certain community or group can reveal that they have suffered unfair treatment that is often rooted in biased policies or attitudes. For example, we know that poorer areas and communities of color are likely to suffer the worst consequences of climate change, even though they tend to be responsible for emitting fewer greenhouse gases than wealthier and less-diverse populations. And it’s often not just the consequences that affect these communities. They also are much more likely to live around the sources of pollution responsible for warming, like highways, refineries, and other industrial sites..."
Birds are Adopting "Extraordinary Behaviors" to Survive the Impact of Climate Change. The Daily Mail Online has the story; here's a clip: "...Those that more easily incorporate different foods into their diets or develop new foraging techniques better withstand environmental changes. Ducatez and his team say environmental changes is the main threat birds face. Researchers compared the number of observed innovations of each species with their risk of extinction according to the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Other instances of dietary changes between bird species were a great egret killing and eating a common sparrow in Brazil, rather than fish, and a crow stealing scraps from starlings feeding in a dump in Spain..."
File image: Wikipedia.
COVID-19: Biggest Drop in CO2 Emissions Since WWII, but Little Impact on Climate Change. Here's an excerpt from RFI: "...Any reductions in pollution and carbon dioxide emissions are likely to be temporary, said Lars Peter Riishojgaard, from the infrastructure department of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations agency based in Geneva. "It does not mean much for climate," he told a virtual press conference. Riishojgaard said there was a lot of media speculation about what impact the global pandemic might have on the climate, greenhouse gas emissions and longer-term global warming. “While in the short term, carbon dioxide emissions would go down as cars stay put and aircraft remain on the ground, "we expect the impact will be fairly short-lived," Riishojgaard said. "The pandemic will be over at some point and the world will start going back to work and with that, the CO2 emissions will pick up again, maybe or maybe not to quite the same level..."
Image credit: Scott Kelly, NASA ISS.
Ocean's Capacity to Absorb CO2 Overestimated, Study Says. Details via The Guardian: "The North Atlantic may be a weaker climate ally than previously believed, according to a study that suggests the ocean’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide has been overestimated. A first-ever winter and spring sampling of plankton in the western North Atlantic showed cell sizes were considerably smaller than scientists assumed, which means the carbon they absorb does not sink as deep or as fast, nor does it stay in the depths for as long. This discovery is likely to force a negative revision of global climate calculations, say the authors of the Nasa-backed study, though it is unclear by how much..."
Image credit: "Phytoplankton blooms are visible from space in this 2017 satellite image taken of the Gibraltar strait." Photograph: Suomi/VIIRS and Modis/NASA.