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Paul Douglas on Weather

50s Today Then Colder and Storm-Free

(Image Credit: @TNelsonWX)

Minneapolis November Summary

Here's a look at the November numbers for the Twin Cities. Despite seeing above average snowfall, we've also had above temperatures, so we've had a lot of snow melt. Temperatures this month are running nearly +5F above average and more like October!

Snow Depth As of November 26th

The Twin Cities picked up 8.8" of snow this month, which is more than 1" above average through this time of the month. The snow depth map across the state, doesn't show much left close to home, but there are still a few inches on the ground across the Arrowhead and southeastern MN into central Wisconsin.

November Snowfall So Far

Here's how much snow we've had so far this month. Note that the heaviest has been near Duluth, MN where nearly 19" of snow has fallen this month, which is almost 8" above average. The Twin cities has seen nearly 9" of snow this month, which is more than 1" above average.

Snowfall So Far This Season

Believe it or not, we've had almost a foot and a half of snow at the MSP Airport this season, which nearly 10 inches above normal. Interestingly, most locations are above average snowfall for the season so far. Duluth has seen nearly 30" of snow already this season, which is nearly 17" above average.

Snowfall Potential Through 6AM Next Wednesday

Here's the snowfall potential through next Wednesday, which shows minimal snowfall potential across the state and region. Areas of heavier snowfall will be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region early next week.

Quiet Weather Close to Home

Weather conditions close to home will be very quiet over the next several days. A warm breeze develops on Saturday with a colder wind on Sunday. Note the bigger storm system that appears to develop across the Ohio Valley early next week. This storm will be responsible for strong winds, heavier precipitation and snow potential.

Saturday Weather Outlook for Minneapolis

Here's the weather outlook for Saturday. A warm south breeze will develop, which will help to boost temps into the low/mid 50s. Note that the record high for November 28th is 58F, so we'll be a few degrees away from that. 

Saturday Meteograms for Minneapolis

Here's a look at the Meteograms for Saturday, which shows temps warming into the low/mid 50s in the afternoon. With that being said, we'll be nearly 20F above. Winds will be a bit breezy with southwesterly gusts approaching 20mph throughout the day. 

Saturday Weather Outlook

High temps on Saturday will be well above average across region with readings running nearly +15F to +25F above average. Some locations will be nearing record highs for this time of the year.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the extended temperature outlook for the Twin Cities, which shows temps running well above average on Saturday. Temps dip to near normal levels again on Sunday and will be even cooler on Monday. The rest of next week looks quiet with temps staying in the 30s. In other news, note how quiet the next 5 to 7 days appears to be with no precipitation expected during that time period. 


Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

After a very warm Saturday, temps will cool into the 30s for much of the week ahead. Temps look to remain quiet steady as we head through the first half of December. Great news that we don't have any major Polar smacks moving in anytime soon. 

Drought Update
According to the US Drought Monitor, drought conditions have increased slightly over the last few weeks with nearly 45% of the state considered to be in abnormally dry, while almost 8% is considered to be in a moderate drought. Precipitation in Duluth is nearly -9.25" below average and is considered to be the 12th driest (January 1st - November 26th) on record. Meanwhile, Sioux Falls, SD is at their 7th driest such period on record. 

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, drier weather should continue across much of the nation as we head into early December!

8-14 Day Tempearture Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warmer than average temperatures will continue across much of the Western US and the northern tier of the nation. Meanwhile, cooler than average weather will settle in across the southern and eastern parts of the nation.

50s Today Then Colder and Storm-Free
By Paul Douglas

"Curiosity is the engine of achievement" wrote Ken Robinson. Launching multiple companies over the years I've found that success in anything doesn't require a high IQ or friends in high places. Individuals and companies succeed for two main reasons: a culture of curiosity and raw persistence. Tenacity. An almost supernatural unwillingess to give up. Pivot, fail, pivot again and fail forward. Nobody wants to fail but an ability to experiment and fail is the only way to get to the finish line.

Roughly 3 out of 4 Christmases in the Twin Cities are white, with at least an inch of snow on the ground. Gazing at the models I'm wondering (out loud) if this Christmas may be one of them. A series of cold fronts are on the way, but no prolonged polar punches - and no major snow-producing storms either.

Today will be perfect for a walk or bike ride with low 50s. A massive storm pushes up the East Coast early next week, dumping 8-12" of snow on Cleveland and Detroit.

Hmm. Today I may just mow my lawn one last time.

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny and mild. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 53.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Winds: SSW 5-10. Low: 28.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Gusty and colder. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 36.

MONDAY: Bright sun. Cold stings a little. Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 20. High: 29.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Not as chilly. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 22.High: 38.

WEDNESDAY: Gray with PM flurries. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 26 High: 33.

THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Normal temps. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 27. High: 34.

FRIDAY: Blue sky. Trending milder. Winds:SW 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 42.

This Day in Weather History
November 28th

1983: Widespread snowfall occurs across much of central Minnesota with snowfall totals at or above 1 foot in many areas. A record 15 inches fell in Gaylord and 14 inches fell in Farmington.

1960: A major storm produces near hurricane force winds on Lake Superior, with 20 to 40 foot waves on the lake. Erosion and damage occurred on the North Shore.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 28th

Average High: 34F (Record: 58F set in 1941)
Average Low: 19F (Record: -21F set in 1887)

Record Rainfall: 1.08" set in 1987
Record Snowfall: 7.5" set in 1905

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 24th

Sunrise: 7:28am
Sunset: 4:34pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 6 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minutes & 41 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~ 6 hour & 44 minutes

Moon Phase for November 28th at Midnight
1.1 Days Until Full "Beaver" Moon

"3:30 a.m. CST - Now it is time to set beaver traps before the swamps freeze to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Beaver Moon come from the fact that the beavers are now active in their preparation for winter. This is also called the Frosty Moon. There is also a penumbral lunar eclipse with this full moon; observers across North America might notice the upper part of the moon appearing slightly darker as nearly 83% of the moon's diameter becomes immersed in the fainter penumbral shadow of earth."

See more from HERE:

What's in the Night Sky?

"For us in North America, the November full moon is the Beaver Moon or Frosty Moon. In the Southern Hemisphere, where it’s the opposite time of year, the November full moon is a fixture of the spring season. For all of us, this November 2020 full moon shines directly in front of the constellation Taurus the Bull. It’s the third and final full moon of this Northern Hemisphere autumn or Southern Hemisphere spring. We in North America are well placed to view a partial penumbral eclipse of this full moon on the night of November 29-30. Greatest eclipse will be November 30 at 9:43 UTC or 4:43 a.m. EST (translate UTC to your time). It’ll be the faintest of eclipses – nearly imperceptible – so that some of you will swear nothing is happening even while staring straight at it. Then again … observant people may notice a subtle shading on the moon, even without knowing an eclipse is taking place. A dark rural sky will be best for seeing this very faint eclipse. The reddish star near the moon during the eclipse will be Aldebaran, Eye of the Bull in Taurus. The dipper-shaped Pleiades star cluster will also be nearby. You have to be on the nighttime side of the Earth while the eclipse is taking place or you’ll miss it altogether. We refer you to the worldwide map below showing the day and night sides of Earth at the instant of greatest eclipse."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

(Image Credit:

National High Temps Saturday
Here's a look at high temps across the nation on Saturday will be running above average from the Upper Midwest to the Eastern US. Meanwhile, a much colder day is on tap in Dallas, where temps will be running nearly -10F to -15F below average with showers and storms possible.

National Forecast Map For Saturday

An area of low pressure will develop in the Southern US on Saturday with widespread showers and storms. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be a little on the strong to severe side across the Gulf Coast region both Saturday and Sunday with pockets of locally heavy rain.  

Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through through the weekend, which shows a developing storm system where areas of strong storms and locally heavy rain can't be ruled out. 

Heavy Precipitation in the Western US

Look at the heavy precipitation potential across the Gulf Coast States and into the Northeast over the next 7 days. Areas of flooding can't be ruled out in the Lower Mississippi Valley as this next storm system moves through. 

Tropical Update

According to NOAA's NHC, there are 2 waves in the Atlantic basin that have a chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days. While these don't pose any major concern to the U.S., the wave east of Bermuda has a medium chance of formation within the next 5 days. Stay tuned!

No More Regular Alphabet Names

It has been an active season so far as we've used up all 21 names that NOAA's NHC set for the year. Interestingly, Tropical Storm Arthur developed back in mid May, more than 4 months ago! Since then, we've had a total of 9 huricanes!

We're Into the Greek Alphabet - First Time Since 2005

Not only did we use up all 21 names in the list above, but we've entered the Greek Alphabet, which is only the 2nd time in recorded history that we've done that and the first time since 2005. Delta became the 25th named storm and the 9th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Climate Stories

(Image Credit: NOAA)

"These Places Will Flood if Climate Change Isn’t Mitigated"

 "There’s a real possibility that sea levels, rising due to climate change, will lead to coastal flooding across the globe. And, because people form settlements near coasts, that may mean hundreds of millions of people, if not more, will be displaced this century. To understand the problem’s magnitude, YouTuber, Atlas Pro, has made a video showing just how bad the situation could become. And yes, worst-case scenario is an absolute nightmare." 

See more from Nerdist HERE:

"Severe Wildfires Raise the Chance for Future Monstrous Blazes"

"To lessen the risk of catastrophic wildfires, California’s forests need more routine burns. This message has been echoed for years. Relentlessly putting out even small wildfires in the Golden State and other parts of the western U.S. has long deprived the regions of beneficial flames, resulting in the buildup of dense vegetation and dry leaf litter. The accumulation of this fuel, experts say, is creating a dramatic rise in megafires. More ironic is new research that shows that massive fires do not necessarily reduce the incidence of big future blazes in the same places. In California alone, recent large fires have burned within the footprint of previous ones, including the 2012 Chips Fire, the 2013 Rim Fire and parts of the 2018 Camp Fire. In less than a decade, some of the burned expanses from this year’s megafires could burst into intense flames again. In some ecosystems, high-severity fire can beget more high-severity fire, furthering the loss of forest."

See more from Scientific American HERE:

"Hawaiian Seaweed Makes Cows 90% Less Gassy - And That’s Good For Climate Change"

"The red seaweed is called Asparagopsis taxiformis, or A. taxiformis for short. The startup that’s turning it into a supplement for livestock is called Symbrosia. Research has shown that replacing just 0.4% of a cow’s feed with A. taxiformis reduces the amount of methane the cow produces by more than 90%. Methane is 34 times more potent than carbon dioxide when it comes to contributing to climate change. Symbrosia uses an on-land aquaculture system to grow the seaweed. They dry the seaweed to preserve it naturally, then turn that into a feed product with the not-so-catchy name of SVD. Just a sprinkle of the SVD to existing livestock feed and poof: less methane from the cow. Symbrosia was recently selected as part of the 2020 Solver class by MIT Solve, an initiative of the Massachusetts Institute for Technology. Symbrosia will receive a portion of more than $2 million in prize funding and more opportunities via investors and venture capitalists."

See more from Forbes HERE:

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Winter on Indefinite Pause with a Few 40s First Week of December

Winter Remains On Indefinite Pause

Have you noticed that most disaster movies start out with people ignoring warnings from scientists? I have a respect for science - and faith in something more. God gave us experts.

This Thanksgiving season I'm grateful for family, friends and facts. I don't take democracy, free speech or freedom of the press for granted.

And a special shout-out to 2020's biggest heroes: our frontline healthcare workers. They all deserve medals, and our enduring gratitude for being steadfast on the front lines of this pandemic.

It's late November and I'm staring out at a green lawn and unraked leaves. My driveway stakes are mocking me again.

The pattern favors big storms for the southern and eastern USA, but a dry and mild Pacific
breeze should keep blowing into Minnesota, keeping us in the 40s much of the first week of December.

Dr. Mark Seeley predicts a relatively toasty, dry start to winter, followed by colder and snowier from January on. That sounds about right to me. Lately our winters have been all or nothing, and this one may be no exception.

Enjoy our ration of sunshine - and upper 40s on Saturday!

Map credit above: Praedictix and AerisWeather.

Mellow Saturday, Then Colder Early Next Week. If it's any consolation every cool/cold front brings a higher probability of actually seeing the sun. Saturday temperatures may run 10-15F above average before we cool down early next week, but temperatures run close to average from midweek on. Map sequence: Praedictix and AerisWeather.

40s First Week of December. Both ECMWF (above) and GFS (below) suggest temperatures running above average for much of early December, as a milder Pacific wind flow aloft dominates our pattern. I still don't see anything particularly polar into mid-December. Graphics: WeatherBell.

Glancing Blows of Chilly Air, But Not Bad for December. Looking out roughly 2 weeks GFS continues to maintain a modifed zonal, west-to-east flow, with a milder Pacific influence for much of the west and central USA. The pattern favors storms over the Deep South and East Coast, but no big storms are brewing close to home anytime soon.

Odds of a White Thanksgiving. Data shows 1 in 5 Thanksgiving Days have measurable snow in the Twin Cities. Map credit: climate guru Brian Brettschneider.

Record-Breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Draws To An End. Good riddance. NOAA has highlights and lowlights: "The extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is drawing to a close with a record-breaking 30 named storms and 12 landfalling storms in the continental United States. While the official hurricane season concludes on November 30, tropical storms may continue to develop past that day. NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks accurately predicted a high likelihood of an above-normal season with a strong possibility of it being extremely active. In total, the 2020 season produced 30 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 13 became hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or greater), including six major hurricanes (top winds of 111 mph or greater). This is the most storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and the second-highest number of hurricanes on record..."

We're Celebrating Thanksgiving During a Pandemic: How We Celebrated During 1918 Flu Pandemic. USA TODAY reports that history is, in fact, repeating itself: "More than 200,000 dead since March. Cities in lockdown. Vaccine trials underway. And a holiday message, of sorts: "See that Thanksgiving celebrations are restricted as much as possible so as to prevent another flare-up." It isn't the message of Thanksgiving 2020. It's the Thanksgiving Day notice that ran in the Omaha World Herald on Nov. 28, 1918, when Americans found themselves in a similar predicament to the millions now grappling with how to celebrate the holiday season amid the coronavirus pandemic. "Every time I hear someone say these are unprecedented times, I say no, no, they're not," said Brittany Hutchinson, assistant curator at the Chicago History Museum. "They did this in 1918..."

Image credit: "Red Cross Women sit at long tables making influenza masks in Chicago, Illinois in 1918." Image provided by the Chicago History Museum. Graphic by Karl Gelles, USA TODAY.

Henrik Fisker Wants to Lease You a No-Strings Electric Vehicle. A new way to lease vehicles with less down-side? Here's an excerpt from Business Insider: "...For about $3,000 up front and $379 a month, Fisker could lease you an Ocean and you could keep it or give it back, at your discretion, while also enjoying a generous, 30,000-mile annual allowance. That monthly payment is significantly lower than the $466 average reported by Experian for 2020. Furthermore, if the vehicle has been leased and returned, another customer could lease it, but at a lower cost. Rolled into the lease is a comprehensive service agreement, and Fisker said that the company is also trying to figure how to offer insurance that fits with the overall package and to reduce the cost of repairs..."

"Jingle Bells" Was Originally Written as a Thanksgiving Song. I did not know that, but a post at Mental Floss set me straight: "...Back in 1850 or 1851, James Lord Pierpont was perhaps enjoying a little holiday cheer at the Simpson Tavern in Medford, Massachusetts, when Medford’s famous sleigh races to neighboring Malden Square inspired him to write a tune. The story goes that Pierpont picked out the song on the piano belonging to the owner of the boarding house attached to the tavern because he wanted something to play for Thanksgiving at his Sunday school class in Boston. The resulting song wasn’t just a hit with the kids; adults loved it so much that the lyrics to “One Horse Open Sleigh” were altered slightly and used for Christmas. The song was published in 1857, when Pierpont was working at a Unitarian Church in Savannah, Georgia..."

36 F. high in the Twin Cities on Thanksgiving Day.

35 F. average high on November 26.

38 F. high on November 26, 2019

November 27, 2005: In the early morning a home in Mower County is hit by lightning and burned to the ground, but no one is injured.

November 27, 1994: A low pressure system produces the first winter storm of the season for Minnesota. By the early morning hours of the 28th, a swath of snow in excess of 6 inches had blanketed much of southwest through central into northeast Minnesota. Snowfall of 6 inches or more occurred south of a line from Gunflint Lake in Cook County to near Ortonville in Big Stone County, and along and north of a line from near Blue Earth in Faribault County to Red Wing in Goodhue County. The snow closed the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport for a short time on the 27th, and contributed to hundreds of accidents and at least three fatalities. In addition, the build-up of ice and snow in combination with strong winds resulted in numerous downed power lines in southeast Minnesota.

November 27, 1985: Extreme cold hits northern Minnesota. A low of 30 below zero is reported at Crookston.

November 27, 1971: Heavy snow falls in southwest Minnesota, with Redwood Falls receiving a foot.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 37

SATURDAY: Blue sky, above average temperatures. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 30. High: 48

SUNDAY: Cloudy, gusty and cooler. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 32. High: 37

MONDAY: Chilled sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 21. High: 29

TUESDAY: Sunny, closer to average. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 18. High: 36

WEDNESDAY: Sunny streak continues, still quiet. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 20. High: near 40

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 23. High: 37

Climate Stories...

Most People Don't Really Understand How Climate Change Works. We are wired to experience (and appreciate) weather, not climate. Here's an excerpt of a good explainer at Massive Science: "...Right now a mild La Niña is underway, with a 95 percent chance that it will persist through the winter of 2020. If it does, this winter is expected to be warmer and drier across the southern United States and wetter in the Pacific Northwest. La Niña is also one of the factors driving the severity of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the most active on record, in addition to climate change. Rising temperatures are making hurricanes more powerful by increasing the speed at which they intensify over the ocean, causing a greater proportion of storms to develop into major hurricanes. Climate change is impacting all aspects of the Earth system, and scientists are only beginning to understand the cascading effects of rising global temperatures..."

Satellite Images Confirm Uneven Impact of Climate Change. EurekaAlert! ScienceNews reports: "...Using extensive imagery from satellites that monitor Earth every day, researchers from the University of Copenhagen's Department of Geosciences and Natural Resources Management have studied the evolution of vegetation in arid regions. Their conclusion is unequivocal: "We observe a clear trend of arid areas developing in a negative direction in the most economically challenged countries. Here, it is apparent that the growth of vegetation has become increasingly decoupled from the water resources available and that there is simply less vegetation in relation to the amount of rainfall. The opposite is the case in the wealthiest countries," explains Professor Rasmus Fensholt of the Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management..."

9 Concerning Facts About Global Extinction - And How To Stop It. Here are a few of the eye-opening stats in a post at Mental Floss: "...Here are nine reasons we too should be concerned about the future of the planet and the millions of species which call it home. 1. More than one million species are now at risk of extinction. Over a million species of animal and plant life are now threatened with dying out – more than ever before in human history, according to the International Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). 2. Wildlife population sizes dropped by two thirds since 1970 There has been an average 68% drop in global population sizes of amphibians, birds, fish mammals and reptiles between 1970 and 2018, according to the WWF's Living Planet Report 2020..."

A Thanksgiving Meditation in the Face of a Changing Climate. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at the Scientific American Blog Network: "... Arguably, we don’t know how to think about climate change because we’ve never really had to think about climate. It’s always been a hum in the background, small variations around a mean that we take for granted. Now, that background note is growing louder and higher. Our climate is changing because of our actions. We can already see the impacts: changes in the range and behavior of animal species, coastal cities smashed by hurricanes and inundated by floodwaters, a haze of unseasonal wildfire smoke. Science says nothing about how to feel about these changes. I feel grief, guilt, anger, determination, hope, and sadness all at the same time. But what I feel more than anything is gratitude for what we have. We live on a medium-sized rock that goes around a garden-variety star in a galaxy that exists only because of a flaw in the smooth perfection of the early cosmos..."

Image credit: NASA, NOAA, GSFC, Suomi NPP, VIIRS and Norman Kuring.

How Biden Can Fight Climate Change Without Congress. Politico examines the possibilities; here's an excerpt: "...The Federal Reserve, the most powerful bank regulator in Washington, isn’t waiting for Biden’s inauguration. Even as Trump withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, the Fed quietly laid the groundwork to one day put its stamp on global regulatory standards for climate-related financial risks. This month, the Fed made a long-awaited announcement that it will seek to join the international Network for Greening the Financial System. The Fed also for the first time formally declared climate change as a potential danger to financial stability. The two steps were highly significant because the U.S. has been seen as falling behind other countries that have taken aggressive stances. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a Trump (and Obama) appointee who will likely serve well into Biden’s first term if not longer, said officials were obligated to incorporate the risks into how they think about the economy..."

Trump Races to Weaken Environmental and Worker Protections, and Implement Other Last-Minute Policies Before January 20. Here's a clip from a post at ProPublica: "Even as Trump and his allies officially refuse to concede the Nov. 3 election, the White House and federal agencies are hurrying to finish dozens of regulatory changes before Joe Biden is inaugurated on Jan. 20. The rules range from long-simmering administration priorities to last-minute scrambles and affect everything from creature comforts like showerheads and clothes washers to life-or-death issues like federal executions and international refugees. They impact everyone from the most powerful, such as oil drillers, drugmakers and tech startups, to the most vulnerable, such as families on food stamps, transgender people in homeless shelters, migrant workers and endangered species. ProPublica is tracking those regulations as they move through the rule-making process..."

Covid-19 and Climate Change Make Hurricanes More Devastating for Latin America. reports: "After two Category 4 hurricanes this month, communities in these Central American countries have witnessed rivers overflowing from torrential rains, crops destroyed, cattle washed away, schools flooded, and roads engulfed in landslides. Death, disease and poverty will likely follow. While poor people in rural areas have been often worst-hit by the succession of Hurricane Eta and Hurricane Iota, the repercussions from those storms are already being felt in the halls of power. In Guatemala City this weekend, anger boiled up into the streets as protesters set fire to the Congress building, forcing legislators to reverse budget cuts to the country's already crippled health care and education systems. Exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, the fallout from these climate disasters will continue to spread. And it may eventually even reach distant countries, as Central Americans left desperate and vulnerable by the storms flee abroad..."

Hurricane Eta file image from November 3, 2020: NOAA and AerisWeather.