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More Rain Chances For Memorial Day

Past Memorial Day Monday Weather - And The Forecast For 2020


Image: Minnesota State Climatology Office/MN DNR

Memorial Day has been an official federal holiday since 1971, and even with it being at the end of May temperatures can vary a lot. Since 1971, we've seen a high of 100F (back in 2018), a low of 39 (back in 1993) and up to 1.83" of rain (2018) at MSP airport. The Minnesota State Climatology Office/MN DNR notes that the day remains dry 60-70% of the time. Click here to read more, including climatological stats for the full Memorial Day weekend.

Unfortunately, this Memorial Day won't be one of those dry ones as scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast. It doesn't look like an all-day wash out, though.

So while we will watching those shower and thunderstorm chances Monday, highs will climb into the 70s across many areas of the state with a few 80s in southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities. Along the North Shore, temperatures will be stuck in the 60s

Across most of the state, these highs will be several degrees above average - including almost 10F degrees above the norm for the day in the Twin Cities, Rochester, and Grand Marais. The average high in the Twin Cities for May 25th is 72F.

A few of the storms across southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin could be on the strong side Monday with a Marginal Risk of severe weather in place. Large hail would be the main threat.

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May Rain (Through Saturday)

As mentioned in the header, these graphics only show rain through Saturday, so they don't reflect the rain that moved across southern Minnesota Sunday morning. Once you go north of the Twin Cities, it has been a fairly dry month in central and northern Minnesota so far. All NWS climate sites norare running more than an inch below average - and are approaching 2" below in some spots. In St. Cloud, it is the 19th driest start to the month and would be the 5th driest May if no additional rain after Saturday fell. In Duluth, it is the 4th driest start to May and would be the 2nd driest overall May if no additional rain fell.

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Hugo 2008 EF-3 Tornado


Image: NWS

Monday marks the 12th anniversary of the EF-3 tornado that hit the Lino Lakes and Hugo areas which sadly resulted in one fatality. It was on the ground for 6 miles and was an eighth of a mile wide at times. Three other tornadoes touched down in Minnesota that day, along with one in western Wisconsin. CLICK HERE for a summary of the severe weather that day (which also included hail larger than golf ball sized) from the National Weather Service Twin Cities office.

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Holiday Puddle Potential. 90s by June?
By Paul Douglas


"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it" said Mark Twain. Today we honor the souls who sacrificed everything to keep us free. One lesson of history: take nothing for granted, because it can be taken from you - by force.

I am in awe of those who serve, including my Navy son, Brett, who flew helicopters in the South China Sea and Persian Gulf. He came back with new eyes, new appreciation for America, warts and all.

Today we also celebrate a long, rich tradition of Memorial Day downpours. No all-day rain expected, but an unstable, irritable atmosphere will ignite more showers and T-storms; some of the rain will be locally heavy. No need to water the yard anytime soon.

We clear out late Tuesday with 80-degree sunshine Wednesday, followed by a slight late week cooling trend late week.

If we keep promising a hot front long enough, the forecast will eventually come true. NOAA's GFS model predicts a week of 90s the first week of June. Bring it on.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Showers and T-storms. Wake up 66. High 80. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Showers taper, slow PM clearing. Wake up 66. High 76. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 7-12 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine, lake-worthy. Wake up 60. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Early shower risk, then blue sky. Wake up 62. High 79. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
FRIDAY: Sunny and very pleasant. Wake up 55. High 73. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, comfortable. Wake up 53. High 72. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: More sunshine, still pleasant. Wake up 55. High 77. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
May 25th

2008: An EF-3 tornado strikes Hugo, MN. 1 fatality and 9 injuries are reported.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 25th

Average High: 72F (Record: 94F set in 1978)
Average Low: 52F (Record: 33F set in 1901)
Average Precipitation: 0.11" (Record: 1.88" set in 1942)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 25th

Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:46 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 12 minutes and 40 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 47 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 15.5 Hours Of Daylight? June 7th (15 hours, 30 minutes, and 29 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM: May 30th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 9:00 PM: June 12th (9:00 PM)

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Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook

We'll keep an eye on those scattered shower and thunderstorm chances as we head through Memorial Day in the Twin Cities. Temperatures will start the morning off in the mid to upper 60s with highs topping off (for the first time this year (hopefully)) in the low 80s.

 
We'll see temperatures in the 70s to low 80s this week in the Twin Cities. Shower and storm chances will continue into Tuesday (40%) and Wednesday (20%), with drier weather expected for the end of the week.

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National Weather Forecast

For Memorial Day Monday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across most of the central United States as well as portions of the eastern U.S., particularly in the Southeast. A few snow showers will be possible in the central Rockies. Rain will be possible in the Northwest. A few record highs will be possible in Calfornia and the Ohio Valley.

A couple of areas of heavy rain are expected through 7 PM Tuesday. One is across southern Florida, where rainfall amounts of 3"+ are possible and some localized areas could see up to 6". Heavy rain is also expected across the central United States as 2"+ are possible across the central and southern Plains with some of the heaviest expected in southern Texas. Several inches of snow will be possible in the northern and central Rockies.

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Heavy Southern Florida Rain

Heavy rain will impact southern Florida through the Memorial Day holiday, with the potential of up to 6" of rain in some locations. Due to this, a Flood Watch has been issued, including Miami.

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Heat Builds In The Southwest

Meanwhile, as we head into the week heat will be building across the Southwestern United States. Already Excessive Heat Warnings are in place for Las Vegas and Phoenix for Wednesday through Friday. Highs in Phoenix are expected to top 110F Thursday and Friday. Here's a look at highs Monday through Friday across the Southwest:

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Bad weather might delay SpaceX's historic launch of NASA astronauts to May 30

More from Business Insider: "Clouds and rain could thwart the historic first launch of NASA astronauts in a SpaceX spacecraft on Wednesday. The mission, called Demo-2, will fly seasoned NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley in the company's Crew Dragon spaceship. The flight's success would effectively resurrect human spaceflight from America after nearly a decade of dormancy. But a forecast of cloudiness, rain, and isolated thunderstorms leaves only a 40% chance that the spacecraft will be able to safely launch on Wednesday, according to the space wing of the US Air Force. If the rain makes launch untenable, SpaceX and NASA will fall to their backup date: Saturday, May 30."

100-Year Drought Hits Poor EU Region Already Reeling from Virus

More from Bloomberg: "First the virus lockdown shuttered the two dairies where farmer Gavrila Tuchilus sells the milk from his 1,500 cows. Then his fields dried up, forcing him to abandon his barley crop for the first time in 39 years. “A double war is taking place,” said Tuchilus, from Matca, a village in southeast Romania. “It’s a war against the invisible Covid-19 and a war with the drought.” The dry spell that’s scorching parts of the European Union’s eastern wing is devastating harvests and exacerbating what’s expected to be the region’s deepest economic downturn since at least the fall of communism."

Weather Disasters Are Mounting Amid The Pandemic. Michigan Floods Are Just The Latest.

More from the Huffington Post: "Rivers swollen from days of record-breaking rain topped two dams in Michigan’s Midland County this week, flooding neighborhoods with enough brown, muddy water to fill an Olympic-size swimming pool every two seconds. The flooding sent 10,000 residents who had sheltered in place from the coronavirus pandemic scrambling for higher ground. Parts of the county 140 miles northwest of Detroit are facing 9 feet of flooding as nearly 5 inches of rain fell over 36 hours, the kind of deluge that takes place only once every 25 to 50 years, meteorologist Paul Gross said. The National Weather Service called the disaster “extremely dangerous” and urged drivers who encounter inundated roads to “turn around, don’t drown.”"

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Thanks for checking in. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Severe Potential Sunday - More Rain Memorial Day

Severe Weather Threat

We are tracking the potential for some severe weather across southern Minnesota as we go through the Memorial Day weekend. A Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place Sunday. A line of storms moving out of South Dakota during the morning hours could produce some gusty winds and hail before dying out. Additional storms that form Sunday evening and Sunday night could produce large hail and some damaging wind gusts.

You can see that line of storms dying off as it moves across southern Minnesota during the morning hours Sunday. More showers and storms will then be possible, mainly across southern Minnesota, as we head into the evening and overnight hours.

Here's a breakdown of that severe weather potential on Sunday from NWS Twin Cities (LINK to original tweet).

A Marginal Risk of severe weather also exists Memorial Day Monday across far southeastern Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threat with any stronger storms across the region.

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Past Memorial Day Monday Weather - And The Forecast For 2020


Image: Minnesota State Climatology Office/MN DNR

Memorial Day has been an official federal holiday since 1971, and even with it being at the end of May temperatures can vary a lot. Since 1971, we've seen a high of 100F (back in 2018), a low of 39 (back in 1993) and up to 1.83" of rain (2018) at MSP airport. The Minnesota State Climatology Office/MN DNR notes that the day remains dry 60-70% of the time. Click here to read more, including climatological stats for the full Memorial Day weekend.

This Memorial Day features the chance of some showers and thunderstorms across the state. Highs will mainly be in the 70s, but a few 60s are possible along the North Shore and in northwestern Minnesota.

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No 80F Day So Far At MSP

We have failed to have a high of 80F yet so far at the MSP Airport in 2020. The warmest we have been was 78F back at the beginning of the month.

This is the latest we have seen our first 80F degree high since at least 2014, when it occurred on May 24th. The latest first 80F on record was back on June 16, 1883. We should hopefully see our first 80F within the next week - more on that below.

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A Little Better For Outdoor Plans Today
By Paul Douglas


How are you enjoying the holiday weekend so far? Why should Mother Nature cooperate? The sun was quarantined much of Saturday, with roving bands of heavy showers pushing through town. If it's any consolation, the tornadoes stayed over Iowa, Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

The transition to summer can be a tortured affair. The upper atmosphere is still chilly, while temperatures near the ground are warming rapidly. Instability combines with strong and shifting winds with altitude (wind shear) to create a ripe environment for severe storms.

Such is the case today with a "slight risk" of severe storms over southern Minnesota. More of today will be dry, with spurts and squirts of sunshine, but watch for strong to severe storms mushrooming to life later in the day.

The same goes for Memorial Day: a few hours of sunshine possible, but ripe conditions for PM T-storms.

We dry out on Tuesday (naturally) with some 80s expected next week. NOAA's GFS model still predicts a few 90s by early June. I'm so ready.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Some sun, strong T-storms. Wake up 60. High 79. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
MONDAY: Unsettled with more showers, T-storms. Wake up 64. High 80. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, drier. Wake up 63. High 78. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine, quite pleasant. Wake up 62. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 7-12 mph.
THURSDAY: Sunny, breezy and less humid. Wake up 60. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
FRIDAY: Blue sky, pretty spectacular. Wake up 57. High 76. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Warm sun, T-storms possible late. Wake up 59. High 82. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 15-25 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
May 24th

1925: After seeing a high of 99 degrees two days earlier, the Twin Cities picks up a tenth (.10) of an inch of snow.

1908: Tornadoes hit the counties of Martin and Blue Earth.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 24th

Average High: 72F (Record: 95F set in 2010)
Average Low: 51F (Record: 32F set in 1925)
Average Precipitation: 0.11" (Record: 2.58" set in 2012)
Average Snowfall: 0.0" (Record: 0.1" set in 1925)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 24th

Sunrise: 5:34 AM
Sunset: 8:45 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 10 minutes and 52 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 50 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 15.5 Hours Of Daylight? June 7th (15 hours, 30 minutes, and 29 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM: May 30th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 9:00 PM: June 12th (9:00 PM)

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Twin Cities And Minnesota Weather Outlook

We'll be watching a couple of chances for showers and storms in the Twin Cities on Sunday. The first will be courtesy of a dying line of storms moving out of South Dakota that could impact us sometime in the late morning/midday hours - if it makes it as far as the Twin Cities. Another chance of storms will bubble up across the region heading into the evening hours. It'll be a warm morning - starting off in the low 60s - with highs climbing into the upper 70s.

Shower and storm chances exist across much of the state Sunday, but the highest chance of seeing some rain will be across southern Minnesota. It doesn't appear like anywhere should see an all-day washout. Highs will mainly be in the 70s across the state and potentially approach 80F in some locations. Highs along portions of the North Shore, however, will be stuck in the 60s.

These highs across the state Sunday will be above average for the second half of May, about 5F degrees or so above average in central and southern Minnesota but 10-15F degrees above average in northern Minnesota. The average high in the Twin Cities for May 24th is 72F.

We'll continue to flirt with 80F in the Twin Cities as we go into Memorial Day Monday before slightly cooler weather (mid-70s) returns Tuesday. We should be able to reach the 80s for highs over the next several days, even if it doesn't come until the middle of the week.

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National Weather Forecast

On Sunday, showers and storms will be possible across a good portion of the central and eastern United States with several low-pressure areas in play. However, big cities such as Boston, New York City, and Washington D.C. should remain dry. A few rain/snow showers will be possible in the northern and central Rockies, with a few rain showers in the Pacific Northwest with a cold front nearby.

As we head into Memorial Day Monday, more storms will be possible across the mid-section of the nation stretching into the Southeast. Some rain will also be possible in the Pacific Northwest. A few record highs will be possible in the Ohio Valley.

A swath of 2-4" of rain will be possible through Memorial Day across central portions of the nation. Snow is still falling in portions of the west, with several inches possible in the Northern Rockies.

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Snow Out West


Link to tweet

Geeze... it feels like 2020 just keeps kicking us. Snow has been falling Saturday out in the Northern Rockies, with 8" of snow reported near Wayan, ID, and 4.3" near Goshen, ID.

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Heat Builds In The Southwest

As we head into the last week of May, heat will once again build across portions of the Southwest, with Excessive Heat Watches in place. In San Francisco these are in place from Monday through Thursday. In Las Vegas and Phoenix, they are in place from Wednesday through Friday. Here's a look at expected highs across the Southwest from Monday through Friday:

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See a wild underwater 'benthic tornado' whirl across the sea floor

More from CNET: "Here's the weather forecast for the Coral Sea Marine Park seafloor off the coast of Australia: wet with a chance of tornadoes. Researchers following a Schmidt Ocean Institute ROV (remotely operated vehicle) dive near Queensland spotted a wild event when a tornado-like formation appeared on camera during a livestream on Thursday."

A clue as to why it’s so hard to wake up on a cold winter’s morning

More from Northwestern University: "Winter may be behind us, but do you remember the challenge of waking up on those cold, dark days? Temperature affects the behavior of nearly all living creatures, but there is still much to learn about the link between sensory neurons and neurons controlling the sleep-wake cycle. Northwestern University neurobiologists have uncovered a clue to what’s behind this behavior. In a study of the fruit fly, the researchers have identified a “thermometer” circuit that relays information about external cold temperature from the fly antenna to the higher brain. They show how, through this circuit, seasonally cold and dark conditions can inhibit neurons within the fly brain that promote activity and wakefulness, particularly in the morning."

Nitrogen Dioxide Levels Rebound in China

Image: NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) data from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), and modified Copernicus Sentinel 5P data processed by the European Space Agency.

More from NASA: "In early February 2020, scientists using NASA and European satellites detected a significant reduction in a key air pollutant over China after the country shut down transportation and much of its economy. Three months later, with most coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdowns ending in China and economic activity resuming, the levels of nitrogen dioxide over the country have returned to near normal for this time of year. Scientists expected this rebound."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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