weather

Summery Outlook

By Todd Nelson

 As we approach the Summer Solstice on Friday, I have mixed feelings about the Spring we've had so far. Since February, monthly temperatures have been running below average and the first half of June is running below average too. The cool and wet Spring has helped with the drought, which is now completely gone from the Metro. Only 1% of the state near the Minnesota River Valley is considered to be in a severe drought; compared to January 1st when 83% of the state was was in a severe drought and 25% was in an extreme drought. Earlier this week, we managed to have back to back 80F degree high temperatures; something that has only happened one other time in May, two weeks after we had 0.5" of snow.

If you've been feeling a bit cheated out of "Minnesota Nice" weather, you're right, you have. Looking ahead, the good news is that the mild weather will continue. The bad news is that we will have several thunder chances through next week. A slow moving low pressure system will track across the international border and arrive by mid/late week. Our thunder threat will increase through the weekend with heavy rain possible at times. Sounds like summer to me!

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Todd's StarTribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

WEDNESDAY: More sun, still pleasant. Warmer. Slight chance of late PM thunder. High: 82. Winds: S 10-15

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Isolated thunder possible. Low: 65

THURSDAY: Some sun, scatterd T-storms late (some strong?), more humidity. High: 86

FRIDAY: Sticky. Stronger PM storms possible. Wake-up: 68. High: near 89

SATURDAY: Sticky with morning T-storms, some PM sun. Wake-up: 69. High: 88

SUNDAY: Some AM sun, PM T-storms pop. Wake-up: 69. High: 87.

MONDAY: Drier. Lingering PM thundershowers? Wake-up: 67. High: 84.

TUESDAY: Summer and unsettled. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.

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Mid-June Sleet-Drift?!?

No worries... this sleet isn't that close to home and it's around 6,288ft. Any guesses? Thanks to the Mt. Washington Observatory facebook page for the picture below. Tuesday weather atop the summit boasted a mid-June "sleet-drift". YIKES! It's too early for me to start thinking about sleet/snow, let's move on!

"Surprise! Colder-than-expected temperatures have resulted in on-and-off showers of ice pellets (sleet) over the last half-hour or so, resulting in the formation of a mid-June "sleet-drift" on our observation deck."

See more from Mount Washington Obervatory HERE:

Thundery Outlook Continues

Thanks to stormchasingvideo.com for the image below in Brush, CO from earlier this week. I'd say that this is an example of what not to do. Kids playing around in a hail storm... It might seem like a fun idea at first until someones takes a large chunk of ice to the noggin, not to mention the threat of lightning in the area.

Here's another shot from stormchasingvideo.com where hail piles look more like snow piles! I know how hard it is drive in snow drifts, I couldn't imagine driving in hail drifts.

More Storms

Thunderstorm activity was quite common across the country on Monday, June 17th. Here are some of the stormy pics from earlier this week.

Stormy Monday

I though this was interesting... Take a look at how widespread thunderstorm activity was on Monday, June 17th. Even most Canada recorded lightning! Hawaii, California, Nevada and Arizona were the only U.S. states that didn't record lightning. Pretty wild huh?!?

Severe Threat Wednesday

The SPC has a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather across parts of the HIGH Plains on Wednesday ahead of that Pacific Northwest low pressure system. Hail and high winds look to be the primary threat along with heavy rainfall potential, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL INDUCE THE CONTINUED NWWD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND FEATURE 50S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 DEG
C PER KM/ WILL RESULT IN 1000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE BY PEAK HEATING
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA. EXPECTING ISOLD-SCTD STORMS TO
DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION
OWING TO THE MERIDIONAL CHARACTER TO THE MID-UPPER FLOW. THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 DEG
C LAYER SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL THREAT EVOLVING WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS
/SUPERCELLS/. THE PROPENSITY FOR COLD POOLS TO COALESCE TOWARDS
EVENING MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT AS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS MOVE FROM CNTRL MT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NERN MT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

Severe Threat Thursday

...NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HIGHLIGHTING SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE OR HIGHER COVERAGE PROBABILITIES ATTM. IT APPEARS THAT AN MCS
WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU INVOF MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER.
THIS MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WITHIN MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW AND
PERHAPS REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY E/SEWD INTO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE GIVEN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND
EXPANDING EML SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SRN EXTENT ALONG
ANY OUTFLOW AND CONFINE ACTIVITY MAINLY TO PARTS OF ND AND NWRN MN.
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT WITH A ROBUST LLJ FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OR
DEVELOPMENT OF A RENEWED MCS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREATS.

Severe Threat Friday

I still think Friday could be an interesting day ahead of the slow moving low pressure system. The Midwest could be in line for scattered thunderstorms, which may be severe... There is one thing, however, that could prevent thunderstorms from developing. The image below suggests how much energy or CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) will be present by midday. The big red blob over the Midwest would be considered significant potential energy for thunderstorms.

"CAPPED" on Friday??

One question remains about Friday and that is: Are temperatures aloft going to be too warm? A wedge of warmer air aloft would actually help to keep the thunder threat at bay. Yes, somestimes it can actually be too warm to thunder! A 'general' rule of thumb for a "Capping Inversion" is 10°C at 700mb. Anything warmer than that and thunder potential would be less likely. Anything cooler than that an thunder may be possible under given circumstances. 10°C at 700mb is also possible to overcome depending on circumstance too, so as I mentioned... Friday could be interesting late in the day for some folks across the far north if that "Cap" can be erroded. Stay tuned!

Upcoming Rainfall Potentail

NOAA's HPC 3 day rainfall forecast suggests a couple of pockets of heavy rainfall potentail through the end of the week. One located in the Southeast as a front lingers with shower and thunderstorm potential and another in the northern tier of the nation from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest as that slow moving low traverses the international border.

Additional Weekend Precipitation

On top of what we get through the rest of the week, some folks could stay fairly wet through the weekend, espeically those in the Midwest as the slow moving storm/front stalls. Several shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend there. A 5 day precipitation total from some in the Midwest by the end of the weekend could end up being as much as 1" to 2"+

 Sticky Weather Ahead...

Summery temps and humidity values will be on the rise over the next several days. I could see a big chunk of the nation in the 80s and 90s with dew point values in the uncomfy zone. The image below shows the dew point forecast midday Friday in the Humid and Uncomfy zone.

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Feeling cheated?
By Paul Douglas

Let's just get this out in the open. I know plenty of Minnesotans who adore winter. They embrace the snow, the cold, the entire Nordic package of perfected pain.

And then there's everyone else; a significant majority (?) of meek mortals who merely tolerate winter. They hibernate, persevere, suffering in silence, daydreaming of their reward: a glorious, sun-baked summer. That's the compact we make: endure enough clippers and TV windchill maps and you'll be awarded quality cabin-time and a magic summer most Americans would die for.

It hasn't quite worked out that way in 2013. The core of the jet stream is 400 miles farther south than last year; a non-stop parade of storms and sloppy fronts passing almost directly overhead. The boundary separating light jacket weather over Canada from sizzling 90s and 100s is setting up nearby, providing a favored west-to-east runway for storms to track down, one after another. Usually we go 2-3 days between storms. This year: 24 hours.

Steamy 70F degree dew points return by late week, along with murky sun, highs from 85-90F, and a better chance of widespread, heavy T-storms.

Just warm enough for a dip in the lake. But watch for lightning.

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Todd's StarTribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, risk of a stray shower. High: 78

TUESDAY NIGHT: Quieter. Low: 59

WEDNESDAY: More sun, still pleasant. Warmer. Slight chance of late PM thunder. High: 81

THURSDAY: Some sun, scatterd T-storms late, more humidity. Wake-up: 63. High: 82

FRIDAY: More numerous T-storms. Wake-up: 66. High: near 85

SATURDAY: Sticky with morning T-storms, some PM sun. Wake-up: 68. High: 88

SUNDAY: Some AM sun, PM T-storms pop. Wake-up: 67. High: 85

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This weather is for fish! June has been a fairly wet month for some, especially along the Eastern Seaboard. Radar estimates of rainfall through the first half of the month are tipping the scales at 5" to 8" or more, thanks largely in part due to Tropical Storm Andrea earlier this Month. Thanks to Chris Smith from Northern Idaho for the fishy photo below!

Precipitation Past 14 Days

The image below shows pockets of heavy rainfall across the nation, with the heaviest blob over the Eastern Seaboard. Note how the Southwest has seen little precipitation so far this month!

U.S. Drought Monitor

The U.S. Drought Monitor released it's latest drought map last week (New update every Thursday) and showed that the central and western part of the country is still in a deep drought. The latest rainfall has helped, but we still need more and quite a bit more out west!

"This U.S. Drought Monitor week saw some improvements along the Eastern seaboard as the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season – Tropical Storm Andrea – made landfall over Florida late last week bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms to the region. Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea moved up the East Coast on Friday and Saturday combining with a cold front to deliver heavy precipitation and flooding to the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. Across the Great Plains, scattered shower activity led to some modest improvements in areas of drought over the eastern halves of Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. In the Midwest west of the Mississippi, continued shower activity led to improvements in drought areas of western Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. In the South, modest rainfall led to minor improvements over portions of the Texas Panhandle, central and southeast Texas, and northwestern Louisiana. Out West, unseasonably hot and dry conditions were felt late last week and during the weekend as record-breaking heat gripped Arizona, California, and Nevada. Some relief from the heat came to the region late Sunday afternoon and Monday as showers and thunderstorms developed over northwestern Nevada and northern California. In Alaska, unseasonably warm temperatures, reaching the low 70s, were observed in south-central Alaska; southeast Alaska, the Interior, and western Alaska experienced below-normal temperatures."

Read more from the U.S. Drought Monitor HERE:

Rainfall Needed to End Drought

This is an interesting graphic. It shows much rain (precipitation) is needed to end the drought across the country. It's a little disturbing to think that there are places that need 6" to 12"+ of rain to end the drought. Note the near 4" to 5" near the Las Vegas region... Keep in mind that Las Vegas typically only sees 4" to 5" of precipitation per year!

Drought Outlook

NOAA's CPC Drought Outlook continues to show promise for those in the central part of the country. Unfortunately, the drought outlook for folks in the western half of the country, it doesn't look good where drought conditions may persist for quite some time.

"Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past three weeks (since May 16), an active weather pattern, consisting of a series of slow-moving storm systems tracking across the northern tier of the Nation, brought ample rainfall to the Pacific Northwest, the northern thirds of the Rockies and High Plains, much of the Great Plains, Midwest, Delta, Great Lakes Region, New England, and southern half of Florida. 3-week temperatures have averaged below normal in the Northwest , northern Rockies and Plains, and upper Midwest. Since May 1, the heaviest rains (more than 7 inches) have fallen on parts of the northern High Plains, the middle Mississippi Valley, central Great Plains, the upper and lower Delta, parts of Florida, and the southern Appalachians. In contrast, drier conditions were observed in the Southwest, the southern Rockies and High Plains, portions of the Southeast, especially Alabama, the eastern Ohio Valley, and the mid-Atlantic."

See more from NOAA's CPC HERE:

Precipitation Outlook

NOAA's HPC 5 day forecast brings another batch of heavier rain across the southern half of the nation (except the Southwest). Several rounds of showers and storms will be responsible for this soggy outlook. There is also another slow moving low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest that will be responsible for heavy pockets of rain along the Canadian boarder over the next few days.

Severe Threats Ahead

June can be a pretty active time for showers and thunderstorms and we'll have no shortage of thunder potential this week. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted strong to severe thunderstorm potential over the few days.

Check out some of the stormy pics from this weekend below...

Severe Threat Monday

Severe Threat Tuesday

Severe Threat Wednesday

2013 Tornado Drought

Even with the recent spike in severe weather, 2013 is still lacking in the tornado department. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the first 16 days of June has seen 92 PRELIMINARY tornado reports. June typically sees nearly 250 nationwide.

2013 National Tornadoes

According to the SPC, there have been 573 PRELIMINARY tornadoes across the nation so far this year. On average, there should be closer to 1000!

Average U.S. Tornadoes By Month

On average, the number of national tornadoes begins to decline in June. It can still be a very active month, but we've typically seen the peak by now. Big domes of hot air in the central part of the country during the summer months is generally the reason for the decrease in tornadoes and overall severe weather reports during the summer months.

Tracking the Tropics

Say hello to Tropical Depression #2 in the Atlantic Basin, which developed on Monday just southeast of Mexico. The track takes this thing over eastern Mexico and then back into the Bay of Campeche before making landfall with Mexico again later this week.

See more images HERE:

WebcamsDeMexico.com

This was a picture from Bacalar, Mexico as a band of showers and storms was rolling in on early Monday. Looks like a pretty nasty cloud there huh?

See more webcams HERE:

Tracking the Tropics

The latest from the National Hurricane Center keeps this storm across Mexico and well away from the U.S. mainland. It appears that the biggest threat with this storm will be heavy rain and inland flooding.

Wildfire Update

The Black Forest wildfires in Colorado continues... Here's the latest from inciweb.org

"The Black Forest Fire started on Tuesday, June 11th. The cause is undetermined. It is located in the northeast section of Colorado Springs, within the city limits. Rich Harvey's Great Basin Type 1 Incident Management Team took over management of the fire on Wednesday June 12th at 6 a.m.

This wind driven fire moved very quickly the first day. The current assessment has determined 482 structures have been destroyed and 17 were damaged. Several thousand residents were evacuated. As areas cool down and have been cleared of potential safety hazards, some residents are being allowed to return to their homes. Safety assessments of structures are ongoing. A few resources have been released as firefighters continue to make progress toward their containment objectives."

Read more from inciweb.org HERE:

(Image below courtesy inciweb.org)

"BLACK FOREST - The Black Forest Fire is 65 percent contained, has destroyed 483 homes and damaged 17. It has consumed more houses than 2012's Waldo Canyon Fire - making it the most destructive fire in state history. More than 3,600 homes in the area remain untouched, and fire crews are working around the clock to keep it that way. The El Paso County Sheriff's Department is expected to release the names of the two people who died in the blaze on Monday. An investigation is underway into the cause of the wind-driven fire. All that is known at this point is the blaze was not started by lightning. Four burglaries and one impersonation of a fire official or police officer was reported in the Black Forest Fire area, El Paso County Sheriff Terry Maketa said Sunday. Some mandatory evacuations for the Black Forest Fire were lifted Saturday night. Residents to the north were allowed to begin returning home at 8 p.m. Saturday. They'll remain under pre-evacuation and must be ready to go at a moment's notice."

Watch/Read more from our affiliate KUSA in Denver, CO HERE:

Royal Gorge Fire

inciweb.org is reporting that the Royal Gorge Fire is now 100% contained!

"Royal Gorge Fire is 100 Percent Contained - Cañon City, Colo. – Today, fire crews finished mopping-up the fire perimeter. The Royal Gorge Fire is 100 percent contained as of 6 p.m. this evening. Smoke may continue to be visible in the fire area due to isolated pockets of unburned fuel inside the containment lines. This is the final update for the Royal Gorge Fire from the Rocky Mountain Area Incident Management Team B. Command of the fire will transition back to the local unit on Monday at 6 a.m. Local fire resources will continue to monitor the fire as necessary. For further fire information, please contact Denise Adamic, BLM Public Affairs Specialist, at (719) 269-8553. The Royal Gorge Fire Information line will not be staffed as of 8 p.m. Sunday. The final size of the Royal Gorge Fire is 3,218 acres. The majority of the fire was in the City of Cañon City (2,156 acres); with additional acreage on private lands (561 acres) as well as lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (501 acres)."

See more from inciweb.org HERE:

Image below courtesy inciweb.org

Thanks for Checking in, have a great rest of your week!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Father's Day Tan Line

I got the one thing I wanted most yesterday: family togetherness. That, and a sudden (reckless) dose of sunny Vitamin D. I also received a friendly lecture out on the lake. "2012 was the earliest we got our dock and boat in the water - this year was the latest since we moved here a generation ago. How do you explain THAT Mr. Weatherman?"

People want a tidy 8 second TV soundbite explanation, when the reality of what's happening is impossibly complex. There's a large and growing body of evidence that rapid melting/warming in the Arctic is impacting our day to day weather patterns. We need more data, more research, but as you might expect - everything is interconnected.

NOAA records show much of the metro area and southern Minnesota has picked up twice the normal amounts of rain in the last 30 days; 3X for far southeast Minnesota. The hottest, steamiest warm fronts are stalling over Iowa and far southern Minnesota - waves of low pressure rippling east along a stalled tropical front.

We may miss out on 90s, but we're sure to see more heavy T-storms by late week, maybe a severe outbreak next weekend. Farmers are fuming about waterlogged fields. For good reason: it seems to pour now every other day.

Severe Storm Reports. The cluster of instability T-storms that bubbled up late in the afternoon sparked hail southwest of Alexandria, and wind gusts just over severe limits (58 mph) around the Twin Cities. Downtown Minneapolis reported a gust to 59 mph. More details from the Twin Cities NWS here.

Rapid Changes - Temperatures Slight Above Average. The worst of the heat stays just south of Minnesota looking out the next week. An east-west frontal boundary may stall closer to MSP late in the week; the ECMWF model suggests that Friday will be the wettest day in sight, with a few scattered T-storms spilling over into the weekend. Big surprise.

Weekend: Risk of Severe Stickiness. Models show dew points rising as the week goes on; dew points rising into the upper 60s to near 70 by the weekend. Humidity levels have been fairly reasonable so far - that's about to change.

A Persistent Boundary. I'm not sure whether to feel blessed or annoyed. 90s can't quite reach this lofty latitude, fronts getting stuck just south of MSP, waves of low pressure rippling eastward along that frontal boundary sparking episodes of T-storms. 84 hour NAM: NOAA.

30 Day Rainfall Percent of Normal. Much of central Minnesota and the immediate Twin Cities has picked up twice as much rain as normal in the last 30 days, according to NOAA. Farms over southeastern Minnesota have seen 2 to 3 times more rain than average since May 15.

An Early Start To Wildfire Season. In today's edition of "Climate Matters" we examine wildfire trends over the western USA. Wildfire season is now an average of 78 days longer than it was in 1970. Dry areas are becoming even drier, and when winter snows are lighter than average it can set the stage for a long, hot, fiery season. Such will be the case in 2013.

The Storm, Next Time. Have we learned anything from Superstorm Sandy? Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed in The New York Times: "...About 400,000 New Yorkers live in flood-prone areas. City analysts estimate that, by the 2050s, 800,000 people will live within those areas. As Mr. Bloomberg said of the need to start working immediately: “Whether you believe climate change is real or not is beside the point; the bottom line is we can’t run the risk.” The main challenge, of course, will be finding enough money to build the walls, bulkheads, levees and other fortifications to minimize the effects of future storms. Mr. Bloomberg estimated that his complex plan, with 250 proposals, would cost almost $20 billion over the next decade..." (photo: Patsy Lynch, FEMA).

You're Going To Get Wet. The Economist reports that Americans are building beachfront homes, even as ocean levels continue to rise. What's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results? Better to buy a home 5 blocks inland...and be patient. Here's an excerpt: "Before Hurricane Sandy tore through New York and New Jersey, it stopped in Florida. Huge waves covered beaches, swept over Fort Lauderdale’s concrete sea wall and spilled onto A1A, Florida’s coastal highway. A month later another series of violent storms hit south Florida, severely eroding Fort Lauderdale’s beaches and a chunk of A1A. Workers are building a new sea wall, mending the highway and adding a couple of pedestrian bridges. Beach erosion forced Fort Lauderdale to buy sand from an inland mine in central Florida; the mine’s soft, white sand stands out against the darker, grittier native variety. Hurricanes and storms are nothing new for Florida. But as the oceans warm, hurricanes are growing more intense. To make matters worse, this is happening against a backdrop of sharply rising sea levels, turning what has been a seasonal annoyance into an existential threat..."

Photo credit: Eyevine.

The Worst Charities: Get Information Before You Make Donation. Here's an excerpt of an eye-opening report from Marketplace.org (which puts on a fine radio show on Public Radio, btw): ..."The top of our list is an organization called Kid's Wish Network. They operate out of a metal warehouse in Holiday, Fla. Over the past decade they've raised millions of dollars. Of that, about 80 percent -- $110 million -- has gone to professional solicitors, $4.8 million has gone to the charity's founder and his consulting firm, and only $0.03 of every $1 that they've raised has actually spent directly on helping kids," says Taggart. "Most of the causes are popular causes that appeal to donors and may sound like a more well-known group." To make sure that you're sending your money to good places, Taggart says there are many resources to research charities online."

The top 10 worst U.S. charities:

See the full list

 

 

The Most Dangerous Traffic Circle In The World? If you have a couple of minutes, this is worth your time. How on Earth more people don't plow into each other is beyond me. And you think 494 is rough? Robert Krulwich from NPR has the story (and video); here's an excerpt: "I've been to New Delhi where traffic is frightening. I've seen pictures of Nairobi and Bangkok, where it's even scarier. But Ho Chi Minh City? The town we used to call Saigon? I don't think I'd put myself in a truck, car, bike or even a Sherman tank in that town. This video opens in the scariest traffic circle I could imagine — actually, it's beyond imagining — where bikes, cars and people seem simultaneously, collectively and individually heading straight at each other (when you look, just count the vehicles and people on collision course; there are at least two or three in every frame). It's a metropolitan circle of death, and yet ..."

 

86 F. high in the Twin Cities Sunday.

79 F. average high for June 16.

83 F. high on June 16, 2012.

.01" rain fell at KMSP yesterday.

 

On June 17 in Minnesota Weather History:

2010: The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurred with 48 tornadoes across the state, and set the stage for a record breaking tornado year that finished with 113 tornadoes statewide. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota on this day. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest number since July 5, 1978. Here are more details from the Duluth office of the NWS.

1954: Hailstorm at St. Cloud injures many people.

* source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.

TODAY: Sunny spells, passing shower or T-shower possible. Winds: NW 10. High: 77

MONDAY NIGHT: Evening sprinkle, then partial clearing. Low: 58

TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, risk of a stray shower. High: 76

WEDNESDAY: More sun, still pleasant. Warmer. Slight chance of late PM thunder. Wake-up: 62. High: 82

THURSDAY: Some sun, isolated T-storm, more humidity. Wake-up: 65. High: 81

FRIDAY: More numerous T-storms. Wake-up: 66. High: near 80

SATURDAY: Sticky with morning T-storms, some PM sun. Wake-up: 68. High: 84

SUNDAY: Some AM sun, PM T-storms pop. Wake-up: 69. High: 82

Climate Stories....

Climate Change Can Kill Your Investment Returns. Here's a video from Motley Fool and DailyFinance that made me do a double-take: "The planet is warming up -- and you may not even realize how much of a profound effect it can have on your portfolio. Climate change is responsible for more extreme weather events and increasing water scarcity, for instance, presenting profound implications for companies. A warming planet poses significant risks -- ones that investors too often ignore. Anheuser-Busch Inbev learned this the hard way back in 2001, as you'll hear in the following video. But it's not all downside. Cemex is providing solutions to the climate-change challenge. The company's products improve building efficiency, reduce carbon footprints in the built environment, and more..."

Losing Fight With Climate Change, Locales Around The World Find Ways To Live With It. The AP and Washington Post has a comprehensive look at what some large cities around the world are already doing to try and become more resilient, in the face of rising sea level and more extreme storms. Here's an excerpt: "From Bangkok to Miami, cities and coastal areas across the globe are already building or planning defenses to protect millions of people and key infrastructure from more powerful storm surges and other effects of global warming. Some are planning cities that will simply adapt to more water. But climate-proofing a city or coastline is expensive, as shown by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s $20 billion plan to build floodwalls, levees and other defenses against rising seas. The most vulnerable places are those with the fewest resources to build such defenses, secure their water supplies or move people to higher ground. How to pay for such measures is a burning issue in U.N. climate talks, which just wrapped up a session in the German city of Bonn..." (photo: AP).

Who Said Renewables Were Expensive? Here's a clip from GE Look Ahead at The Economist: "Thanks to rapid cost reductions over the last four years (-80% for solar PV, -29% for wind), renewables now becoming competitive with fossil fuels."

Global Warming Conversation Changes. We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on a planetary scale, but that won't reduce the need to adapt to this new world. Adaptation is a fact of life, as discussed in this article at NBC Philadelphia; here's an excerpt: "...University of Michigan professor Rosina Bierbaum is a presidential science adviser who headed the adaptation section of the administration's new National Climate Assessment. ``It's quite striking how much is going on at the municipal level,'' Bierbaum said. ``Communities have to operate in real time. Everybody is struggling with a climate that is no longer the climate of the past.'' Still, Bierbaum said, ``Many of the other developed countries have gone way ahead of us in preparing for climate change. In many ways, the U.S. may be playing catch-up.'' Hurricanes, smaller storms and floods have been a harsh teacher for South Florida, said Jacobs. "Each time you get walloped, you stop and scratch your head ... and learn from it and make change,'' she said. "It helps if you've been walloped once or twice. I think it's easier to take action when everybody sees'' the effect of climate change and are willing to talk about being prepared..." (photo credit: Marco Beltrametti).

How Climate Change Makes Wildfires Worse. Mother Jones has the story - here's an excerpt: "...Big wildfires like Colorado's thrive in dry air, low humidity, and high winds; climate change is going to make those conditions more frequent over the next century. We know because it's already happening: A University of Arizona report from 2006 found that large forest fires have occurred more often in the western United States since the mid-1980s as spring temperatures increased, snow melted earlier, and summers got hotter, leaving more and drier fuels for fires to devour. Thomas Tidwell, the head of the United States Forest Service, told a Senate committee on energy and natural resources recently that the fire season now lasts two months longer and destroys twice as much land as it did four decades ago. Fires now, he said, burn the same amount of land faster. We can expect "as much as a fourfold increase in parts of the Sierra Nevada and California" in fire activity across the rest of this century, says Matthew Hurteau, assistant professor of ecosystem science and management at Pennsylvania State University..."

Photo credit above: "El Paso County Sheriff's Deputy Dan Cukowski helps evacuate Linda Davies and her horses during the Black Forest Fire on June 11." Jerilee Bennett/MCT/ZUMAPRESS

Climate Change Could Increase Areas At Risk Of Flooding By 45 Percent. Here's the intro to a story at The Atlantic Cities: "Rising seas and increasingly severe weather are expected to increase the areas of the U.S. at risk of floods by up to 45 percent by 2100, according to a first-of-its-kind report released by the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Wednesday. These changes could double the number of flood-prone properties covered by the National Flood Insurance Program and drastically increase the costs of floods, the report finds. The report concludes that climate change is likely to expand vastly the size and costs of the 45-year-old government flood insurance program. Like previous government reports, it anticipates that sea levels will rise an average of four feet by the end of the century. But this is what's new: The portion of the US at risk for flooding, including coastal regions and areas along rivers, will grow between 40 and 45 percent by the end of the century. That shift will hammer the flood insurance program. Premiums paid into the program totaled $3.2 billion in 2009, but that figure could grow to $5.4 billion by 2040 and up to $11.2 billion by the year 2100, the report found. The 257-page study has been in the works for nearly five years and was finally released by FEMA after multiple inquiries from Climate Desk and Mother Jones..." (photo credit: Reuters).

Map: Places That Will Flood More Often Due To Global Warming. Slate has the story - here's an excerpt: "...The FEMA study is based on the assumption that sea levels will go up by 4 feet in the next 86 years. But a report released last year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that sea level rise could be more than 6 feet. Whether it's 4 feet or 6 feet, rising seas cause shoreline erosion and recession, and create greater surge risk in the event of major storms. The FEMA report also notes that flooding around rivers will likely become worse in a warming world, due to changes in precipitation frequency and intensity. Population growth, which causes increases in paved areas and changes in runoff patterns and drainage systems, will affect the amount of flooding from rivers..."

* the PDF report referenced above is here.

Evening Thunder? Here is NOAA's HRRR model, valid 7 pm, showing a few clusters of showers and possible T-showrs pushing across central Minnesota into the Twin Cities metro. I think we'll stay rain-free most of the day, but watch for a late day shower or T-storm. You knew we couldn't go an entire day without a little rain, right?

* It turns out the HRRR was right on the money.

Relatively Quiet. The approach of slightly cooler air may set off a T-shower anytime from this evening into Monday, followed by mostly-dry skies Tuesday and Wednesday. A return flow of heat and higher dew points may fuel a few late week and weekend T-storms as highs return to the 80s.

More May Than June. The core of the jet, the prevailing winds aloft, are still hundreds of miles farther south than 2012, and considerably more south than average less than 1 week from the Summer Solstice. As slightly cooler air sags southward out of Canada a few scattered showers and T-storms are likely from Minnesota, spreading east as the week goes on. Monsoon-moisture may spread into Colorado Springs by Monday, with more numerous showers allowing firefighters to finally get the upper hand in the Black Forest blaze. 84 hour NAM loop: NOAA.

From Too Dry To Too Wet - Some Farmers Are Not Happy. Here's an excerpt from this week's edition of Mark Seeley's WeatherTalk Newsletter: "...The rainfall and wet soils have resulted in prevented planting for some corn fields, where producers will be able to collect crop insurance payments if they don't plant corn. Others may opt to plant corn, but not for grain, just for silage to feed livestock. Some soybeans are still being planted late, along with some late planting of alfalfa fields which were so adversely affected by winter stress. Alfalfa hay cutting has progressed very slowly with little of the hay harvest completed..."

30 Day Rainfall Percent of Normal. Much of central Minnesota and the immediate Twin Cities has picked up twice as much rain as normal in the last 30 days, according to NOAA. Farms over southeastern Minnesota have seen 2 to 3 times more rain than average since May 15.

Colorado's Most Destructive Wildfire. The Black Forest fire is now 55% contained, at last report, but at least 483 homes have been destroyed by this, Colorado's most destructive blaze on record. Over 1,000 firefighters are still on the scene and they're making significant progress. Here's the latest from inciweb.org.

Interactive Wildfires Map Tracks The Blaze In Colorado. Here's another good resource from Climate Central: "Aided by strong winds, the wildfire south of Denver has now become the most destructive fire in Colorado's history, surpassing 2012's Waldo Canyon fire. It's burning through thousands of acres of land, and firefighters are struggling to contain the blaze. The 15,000 acre Black Forest fire has destroyed at least 360 homes and forced the evacuation of nearly 40,000 people from areas in and near Colorado Springs, the state's second-largest city. The Black Forest fire is one of three wildfires currently burning across Colorado.You can monitor the wildfires with Climate Central’s interactive wildfires map. The flame icons represent wildfires currently active in the lower 48 states and Alaska, including the Black Forest fire in Colorado. Hover over a given fire to see its name, and if you zoom in you’ll be able to see the outline of the area that’s burning — the so-called fire perimeter. If you click within the perimeter, a window pops up showing the fire’s size in acres, the amount by which the perimeter has grown or shrunk over the past 24 hours, the fraction of the fire that has been contained and other data. There’s also a link to an even more detailed report..."

* The PBS NewsHour has more on Colorado's most destructive wildfire in it's history here.

An Early Start To Wildfire Season. In today's edition of "Climate Matters" we examine wildfire trends over the western USA. Wildfire season is now an average of 78 days longer than it was in 1970. Dry areas are becoming even drier, and when winter snows are lighter than average it can set the stage for a long, hot, fiery season. Such will be the case in 2013.

You're Going To Get Wet. The Economist reports that Americans are building beachfront homes, even as ocean levels continue to rise. What's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results? Better to buy a home 5 blocks inland...and be patient. Here's an excerpt: "Before Hurricane Sandy tore through New York and New Jersey, it stopped in Florida. Huge waves covered beaches, swept over Fort Lauderdale’s concrete sea wall and spilled onto A1A, Florida’s coastal highway. A month later another series of violent storms hit south Florida, severely eroding Fort Lauderdale’s beaches and a chunk of A1A. Workers are building a new sea wall, mending the highway and adding a couple of pedestrian bridges. Beach erosion forced Fort Lauderdale to buy sand from an inland mine in central Florida; the mine’s soft, white sand stands out against the darker, grittier native variety. Hurricanes and storms are nothing new for Florida. But as the oceans warm, hurricanes are growing more intense. To make matters worse, this is happening against a backdrop of sharply rising sea levels, turning what has been a seasonal annoyance into an existential threat..."

Photo credit: Eyevine.

Survivors Blame KFOR Meteorologist For Tornado Deaths. I know Mike Morgan down in Oklahoma City; he's a friend and a gifted meteorologist. I'm sorry he's at the center of controversy over comments he made before the El Reno EF5 tornado spun up, recommending that people without basements, in the direct path of the tornado, consider getting into their vehicles. The result was gridlock, massive traffic jams, and many people think it was the wrong message to send to the public. It's a really tough call when you have an extreme tornado moving in, and less than 1 in 10 viewers have basements. Statistically your odds are still better staying home, riding out the tornado in a closet or bathtub, than getting into your vehicle (or a nearby drainage ditch or storm sewer, which may quickly overflow as a tornadic storm passes overhead). That's apparently what happened on May 31 in El Reno. Here's an excerpt from TVSpy: "The Oklahoman has published a story that suggests KFOR meteorologist Mike Morgan was to blame for the deaths of five Oklahoma City family members after they followed his advice about escaping an oncoming tornado. Virginia Shrum said her brother talked about how he had hidden down in the tunnel from a tornado three years before. The survivors said they were swayed to flee the apartment by warnings from Mike Morgan, KFOR-TV chief meteorologist. The article said 11 people hid in a long drainage tunnel behind the family’s apartment to escape the oncoming twister. They were swept from the tunnel by a flash flood..."

* the story at The Oklahoman is here.

Nicaragua Still Thinks It Can Build A Better Canal Than Panama After 200 Years of Trying. Having just been thru the Panama Canal last winter, I found this article at Quartz fascinating - is there really room for two transoceanic canals? Here's a clip: "Today, Nicaragua’s parliament is expected to approve proposals by a Chinese consortium to build a canal across the country to rival that of Panama. (Update: The plan has been approved.) The $40 billion project could double Nicaragua’s GDP and create 40,000 construction jobs over an 11-year construction period. The idea of building a canal in Nicaragua is nothing new. For most of the 19th century, experts considered a Nicaraguan canal more feasible than one through Panama or another proposed route through Mexico. US tycoon Cornelius Vanderbilt led a project to carry goods across Nicaragua by stagecoach and steamship as a prelude to building a canal, for which he even won a concession. Thirty years later, US president Ulysses S. Grant endorsed the Nicaraguan route as the cheapest and easiest, pegging the cost (p.110-111) at $52,577,718.00—though he admitted that, with probable delays, it could stretch to $100 million. A Nicaraguan canal would be more cost-effective than a Panama one, he argued, where builders would encounter tougher terrain..."

Photo credit above: "Even after Panama's canal expansion is complete, Nicaragua's would be bigger." AP Photo/Arnulfo Franco.

The Worst Charities: Get Information Before You Make Donation. Here's an excerpt of an eye-opening report from Marketplace.org (which puts on a fine radio show on Public Radio, btw): ..."The top of our list is an organization called Kid's Wish Network. They operate out of a metal warehouse in Holiday, Fla. Over the past decade they've raised millions of dollars. Of that, about 80 percent -- $110 million -- has gone to professional solicitors, $4.8 million has gone to the charity's founder and his consulting firm, and only $0.03 of every $1 that they've raised has actually spent directly on helping kids," says Taggart. "Most of the causes are popular causes that appeal to donors and may sound like a more well-known group." To make sure that you're sending your money to good places, Taggart says there are many resources to research charities online."

The top 10 worst U.S. charities:

See the full list

FATHER'S DAY: Evening T-storms, gusty winds. Winds: West 10. High: 83

SUNDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds, chance of a T-shower. Low: 61

MONDAY: More clouds than sun, isolated T-shower. High: 77

TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, cooler. Wake-up: 57. High: 74

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, lukewarm. Wake-up: 61. High: 78

THURSDAY: Sticky, few T-storms return. Wake-up: 65. High: 82

FRIDAY: Steamy humidity levels. few storms. Wake-up: 67. High: 88

SATURDAY: Some sun, spotty T-storms, some strong to severe. Wake-up: 68. High: 87

Climate Stories....

Global Warming Conversation Changes. We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on a planetary scale, but that won't reduce the need to adapt to this new world. Adaptation is a fact of life, as discussed in this article at NBC Philadelphia; here's an excerpt: "...University of Michigan professor Rosina Bierbaum is a presidential science adviser who headed the adaptation section of the administration's new National Climate Assessment. ``It's quite striking how much is going on at the municipal level,'' Bierbaum said. ``Communities have to operate in real time. Everybody is struggling with a climate that is no longer the climate of the past.'' Still, Bierbaum said, ``Many of the other developed countries have gone way ahead of us in preparing for climate change. In many ways, the U.S. may be playing catch-up.'' Hurricanes, smaller storms and floods have been a harsh teacher for South Florida, said Jacobs. "Each time you get walloped, you stop and scratch your head ... and learn from it and make change,'' she said. "It helps if you've been walloped once or twice. I think it's easier to take action when everybody sees'' the effect of climate change and are willing to talk about being prepared..." (photo credit: Marco Beltrametti).

How Climate Change Makes Wildfires Worse. Mother Jones has the story - here's an excerpt: "...Big wildfires like Colorado's thrive in dry air, low humidity, and high winds; climate change is going to make those conditions more frequent over the next century. We know because it's already happening: A University of Arizona report from 2006 found that large forest fires have occurred more often in the western United States since the mid-1980s as spring temperatures increased, snow melted earlier, and summers got hotter, leaving more and drier fuels for fires to devour. Thomas Tidwell, the head of the United States Forest Service, told a Senate committee on energy and natural resources recently that the fire season now lasts two months longer and destroys twice as much land as it did four decades ago. Fires now, he said, burn the same amount of land faster. We can expect "as much as a fourfold increase in parts of the Sierra Nevada and California" in fire activity across the rest of this century, says Matthew Hurteau, assistant professor of ecosystem science and management at Pennsylvania State University..."

Photo credit above: "El Paso County Sheriff's Deputy Dan Cukowski helps evacuate Linda Davies and her horses during the Black Forest Fire on June 11." Jerilee Bennett/MCT/ZUMAPRESS

Climate Change Could Increase Areas At Risk Of Flooding By 45 Percent. Here's the intro to a story at The Atlantic Cities: "Rising seas and increasingly severe weather are expected to increase the areas of the U.S. at risk of floods by up to 45 percent by 2100, according to a first-of-its-kind report released by the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Wednesday. These changes could double the number of flood-prone properties covered by the National Flood Insurance Program and drastically increase the costs of floods, the report finds. The report concludes that climate change is likely to expand vastly the size and costs of the 45-year-old government flood insurance program. Like previous government reports, it anticipates that sea levels will rise an average of four feet by the end of the century. But this is what's new: The portion of the US at risk for flooding, including coastal regions and areas along rivers, will grow between 40 and 45 percent by the end of the century. That shift will hammer the flood insurance program. Premiums paid into the program totaled $3.2 billion in 2009, but that figure could grow to $5.4 billion by 2040 and up to $11.2 billion by the year 2100, the report found. The 257-page study has been in the works for nearly five years and was finally released by FEMA after multiple inquiries from Climate Desk and Mother Jones..." (photo credit: Reuters).

Map: Places That Will Flood More Often Due To Global Warming. Slate has the story - here's an excerpt: "...The FEMA study is based on the assumption that sea levels will go up by 4 feet in the next 86 years. But a report released last year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that sea level rise could be more than 6 feet. Whether it's 4 feet or 6 feet, rising seas cause shoreline erosion and recession, and create greater surge risk in the event of major storms. The FEMA report also notes that flooding around rivers will likely become worse in a warming world, due to changes in precipitation frequency and intensity. Population growth, which causes increases in paved areas and changes in runoff patterns and drainage systems, will affect the amount of flooding from rivers..."

* the PDF report referenced above is here.

Jim Hansen: Climate Change Is The GOP's Worst Nightmare. Here's a snippet from an interview at The Denver Post: "Many conservative politicians have been among climate change deniers, but ignoring the science will led to something the GOP dreads even more — big government. So argued Jim Hansen, who since 1988 has been in the forefront of the issue, first as a NASA scientist and more recently as a free-agent activist, in an interview Thursday..."

How EPA Fights Climate Change Even When Congress Doesn't Want It To. Yahoo! News has the story; here's a clip: "Environmental groups have a tough time getting Congress to do what they want. Case in point: In the early months of 2010, the Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Environmental Defense Fund waged an all-out campaign urging the Senate to pass a sweeping climate-change bill backed by President Obama and leaders in the Democratic-controlled Senate. The measure crashed and burned that summer. But the green groups—and Obama’s top environmental officials—knew they could resort to a different tactic: lawsuits to compel executive action..."

Weekend Number 12

I used to look forward to weekends.

Now it's hard crawling out of bed Friday, knowing full well computer models at work will be freckled with neon-green blobs for weekend plans - the next 72 hours spent apologizing on behalf of a vindictive Mother Nature.

Wait, do people blame Mark Rosen when the Twins lose, or fault Jeff Passolt when there's a terrible news story? No. But apparently weather forecasters are fair game when the weekend sky turns weepy. It defies logic, but I get it. 12 summer weekends - and every one is precious. We're easy scapegoats.

You have to go back to March to find a weekend without any measurable precipitation in the Twin Cities. This will be the 12th weekend in a row with puddles (or worse). An approaching trough of low pressure kicks up a few showers and T-showers by afternoon today. A stalled frontal boundary keeps a few T-storms around Saturday, especially south of the Twin Cities. The farther north you go into Cabin Country the better the odds of lukewarm sun.

Sunday still looks like the better day, statewide, as highs top 80F under a partly sunny sky. It looks like we're moving into a slightly warmer, slightly drier pattern the latter half of June.

A late summer this year? Yep.

Wild Winds. I'm not sure I've ever seen 623 separate reports of damaging winds in one 24 hour period. The only tornadoes were in northeastern Colorado - SPC issued a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Severe Storm Watch for Virginia and North Carolina - you usually see those for Tornado Watches, but yesterday the main risk was straight-line winds vs. tornadic winds. One possible tornado did touch down north of Washington D.C. (Montgomery County) with reports of downed trees and powerlines. A full list of all damage from SPC is here.

Trending (Slightly) Warmer and Drier. Not a lot of weather drama - probably nothing severe and the risk of a heat spike next week has diminished. The 90 and 100 degree air can't quite make it this far north, at least not yet. The best chance of showers and a few T-showers should come later today into Saturday; Sunday the warmer, drier day. Expect highs in the 70s and low 80s much of next week. ECMWF guidance above.

NAM Model. A trough of low pressure sparks a few T-storms Friday into Saturday over the Upper Midwest, with the best chance of rain over far southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois. A few storms may flare up along Colorado's Front Range, but recent storms have triggered lightning and precious little rain. This "dry lightning" can ignite more wildfires. It's going to be a very long, hot, potentially historic fire season over the western third of the USA.

River Flooding Update. With persistent rains (and rivers still out of their banks from Andrea last week) USGS and NOAA report major river flooding over portions of the Carolinas. The Mississippi River is still at major flood stage near St. Louis, some reports of river and stream flooding across North Dakota.

Historic Black Forest Colorado Springs Blaze. The fire engulfing tens of thousands of acres just northeast of Colorado Springs is bringing back some very unpleasant memories from last June's Waldo Canyon Blaze. It is now the worst widlfire in Colorado history, based on the number of homes lost so far (360). The evacuation area cover 38,000 people over 94,000 acres. Here's an excerpt of a news update from Channel 7 in Denver: "The Black Forest Fire is now the worst fire in Colorado history, based on the number of homes lost.The fire has destroyed 360 homes, according to El Paso County Sheriff Terry Maketa. 14 other homes have been partially damaged. Last year’s Waldo Canyon Fire had been the most destructive fire in Colorado history with 346 homes lost.  That fire started June 23, 2012.  Evacuations peaked at 32,000 on June 27.  It burned 18,247 acres. Maketa said the Black Forest Fire has now burned 15,000 acres. The evacuation area expanded early Thursday morning. It now covers 38,000 people in a 94,000 acre area. The new evacuation area is north and west of the Black Forest Fire. The boundaries now cover Highway 83 east to Eastonville Road, and Walker Road north to County Line Road..."

* click here for an interactive Google map that shows the location of the blaze, addresses of many of the homes lost to fire, emergency shelters, and other resources.

Tracking Black Forest Smoke Plume on Doppler. Brad Panovich tweeted out this image of the plume being swept along by prevailing winds. Amazing.

Good Riddance Yagi. Tropical Storm Yagi continues to weaken south of Tokyo, a few squalls of heavier rain pushing inland, but no major impacts are likely to facilities across Japan.

2012 Billion Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters. Here's an excerpt from a recent press release from NOAA NCDC, the National Climatic Data Center: "According to NCDC’s 2012 weather and climate disasters information, 2012 saw 11 weather and climate disaster events each with losses exceeding $1 billion in damages. This makes 2012 the second costliest year since 1980, with a total of more than $110 billion in damages throughout the year. The 2012 total damages rank only behind 2005, which incurred $160 billion in damages due in part to four devastating land-falling hurricanes. The 2012 billion-dollar events included seven severe weather and tornado events, two tropical cyclone events, and the yearlong drought and its associated wildfires. These 11 events killed over 300 people and had devastating economic effects on the areas impacted. With 11 events, 2012 also ranks second highest in total number of billion-dollar events behind 2011, which had 14 events...."

17 Separate Billion Dollar Disasters for Minnesota since 1980. Texas is ground zero, with Dallas-Fort Worth the most dangerous metro area in the USA, due to the frequency and severity of tornadoes, floods and hurricanes. Texas saw 54 separate billion dollar disasters during the same period. Map: NCDC.

Spooked By Hurricanes, Homeowners Make Storm-Proofing Upgrades. Here's a clip from an interesting story at The Regional News: "All those monster hurricanes and tornados we've been experiencing have apparently spooked homeowners worse than just about any disaster film Hollywood ever produced. Six years after the housing bubble burst, the National Association of Home Builders reports homeowners may be beginning to dabble again in largish home remodeling projects costing an average of $100,000 to $150,000. But -- and this is one of the biggest trends -- they're also putting lots of their dollars towards more practical storm-proofing upgrades like wind-resistant roofing, built-in generators and basement drainage. "It's exploded since Hurricane Irene in 2011," Justin Mihalik, a vice president of the New Jersey chapter of the American Institute of Architects, told MarketWatch.com..."

The Biggest Threat To The Global Economy Could Come From Outer Space. From our nearest star, the sun. Here's an excerpt of an eye-opening story at The National Journal and Quartz: "Imagine waking up just after midnight to a sky so bright you swear it must be early morning. Imagine seeing the Northern Lights as far south as Cuba or Hawaii. Imagine that the same phenomena behind both has also generated electric fields in the ground strong enough to power small electronics. That’s what happened in 1859, when the earth was struck by the most severe geomagnetic storm ever recorded. Forget asset bubbles, recessions, or hurricanes—space weather could prove far more economically harmful. A severe geomagnetic storm—a sudden, violent eruption of gas and magnetic fields from the sun’s surface—could prove particularly devastating. If the 1859 storm, known as the “Carrington event,” were to recur today it could cause trillions of dollars in economic damage and take years to recover from, according to estimates. The sun would sneeze and the economy could shatter..."

Illustration credit above: "Artist illustration of events on the sun changing the conditions in near-Earth space." NASA.

An Eerie Resemblance. Imgur.com has a link that compares a sunset on Mars (top image) to a recent sunset in heavily polluted Beijing. Hey, we don't need no stinking EPA!

Steven Spielberg Predicts "Implosion" Of Film Industry. Talk about the Internet (and new technologies like Netflix) disrupting traditional distribution of movies; here's an excerpt from Steven Spielberg (my old pal Steve!) at The Hollywood Reporter: "...Lucas and Spielberg told USC students that they are learning about the industry at an extraordinary time of upheaval, where even proven talents find it difficult to get movies into theaters. Some ideas from young filmmakers "are too fringe-y for the movies," Spielberg said. "That's the big danger, and there's eventually going to be an implosion — or a big meltdown. There's going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm." Lucas lamented the high cost of marketing movies and the urge to make them for the masses while ignoring niche audiences. He called cable television "much more adventurous" than film nowadays..."

My Father's Active Retirement And Why I Plan To Follow In His Footsteps. On some level this is intuitive: stay active, and you'll live longer (with a great quality of life). But this article at PBS's Next Avenue really brought it home for me; here's an excerpt: "...My mother spent her final years in a wheelchair; she no longer had the strength to walk. And her memory was mush. (Am I wrong to put some blame on All My Children and The Days of Our Lives?)  Just months before my father died of natural, age-related causes, he was still driving his pickup and hauling groceries. Until his dying breath, he was as mentally sharp as he’d always been. Now that I’m in my 60s, my turn to retire is approaching — quicker than I can believe. And I already know how I will approach my golden years. I won't take old age lying down. Instead, I’m going to follow my father's example. I will to do everything I can to stay as active as possible..."

Advanced Alien Civilization Discovers Uninhabitable Planet. Breaking news from The Onion: "...The alien researchers stated that the dramatically warming atmosphere of RP-26 contains alarming amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, as well as an ozone layer that—for reasons they cannot begin to fathom—has been allowed to develop a gaping hole. They also noted the presence of melting polar icecaps, floods, and enough pollutants to poison “every last drop of the planet’s fresh water, if you can even call it that.” Given the extreme toxicity of its environment, the Terxus scientists said they did not yet understand how the planet ever came to support single-cell organisms, let alone more complex species and intelligent life..."

Image credit above: "Terxus II astronomers say this planet, which they have named RP-26, will soon no longer be able to support any sort of advanced life."

Official reaction from the media:

79 F. high in the Twin Cities Thursday.

78 F. average high on June 13.

76 F. high on June 13, 2012.

June 13 Historical Data for MSP:

1981: Tornado hits Roseville, destroying homes and damages Har Mar Mall.

1956: 8 inches of rain fell in the Ivanhoe area in 3 and a half hours. 100 thousand dollars in damage to crops.

1943: Torrential downpours cause flooding in the Twin Cities and east central Minnesota. 2.5 inches of rain fell in St. Paul in two hours. In addition, four streetcars were hit by lightning.

* source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.

 

 

TODAY: Dry start with some early sun. Clouds increase, midday and PM T-showers. Winds: SE 15. High: 76

FRIDAY NIGHT: Unsettled, another shower or T-storm. Low: 62

SATURDAY: Patchy clouds. T-showers south, warm sun north. High: 78

SUNDAY: Nicer day of the weekend. Warm sunshine. Wake-up: 63. High: 83

MONDAY: Blend of clouds and sun, a bit cooler. Wake-up: 61. High: 76

TUESDAY: Warm sun, still pleasant. Wake-up: 59. High: 79

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, clouds roll in late. Wake-up: 60. High: 81

THURSDAY: Sticky again. Spotty T-storms. Wake-up: 63. High: 83

* photo above: WeatherNation TV meteorologist Todd Nelson.

Climate Stories....

Warm Ocean Causing Most Antarctic Ice Shelf Mass Loss. NASA has the details; here's an excerpt: "Ocean waters melting the undersides of Antarctic ice shelves are responsible for most of the continent's ice shelf mass loss, a new study by NASA and university researchers has found. Scientists have studied the rates of basal melt, or the melting of the ice shelves from underneath, of individual ice shelves, the floating extensions of glaciers that empty into the sea. But this is the first comprehensive survey of all Antarctic ice shelves. The study found basal melt accounted for 55 percent of all Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from 2003 to 2008, an amount much higher than previously thought. Antarctica holds about 60 percent of the planet's fresh water locked into its massive ice sheet. Ice shelves buttress the glaciers behind them, modulating the speed at which these rivers of ice flow into the ocean. Determining how ice shelves melt will help scientists improve projections of how the Antarctic ice sheet will respond to a warming ocean and contribute to sea level rise. It also will improve global models of ocean circulation by providing a better estimate of the amount of fresh water ice shelf melting adds to Antarctic coastal waters..."

Photo credit above: "This photo shows the ice front of Venable Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, in October 2008." Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UC Irvine

Obama Quietly Raises Carbon Price As Costs To Climate Increase. Bloomberg.com has the story - here's an excerpt: "Buried in a little-noticed rule on microwave ovens is a change in the U.S. government’s accounting for carbon emissions that could have wide-ranging implications for everything from power plants to the Keystone XL pipeline. The increase of the so-called social cost of carbon, to $38 a metric ton in 2015 from $23.80, adjusts the calculation the government uses to weigh costs and benefits of proposed regulations. The figure is meant to approximate losses from global warming such as flood damage and diminished crops.

Photo credit above: "For example, the administration’s vehicle fuel-efficiency standards would cost industry $350 billion over the next 40 years, while benefits in energy security, less congestion and lower pollution totaled $278 billion." Photographer: Reed Saxon/AP Photo.