Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 33 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist for WeatherNation TV, a new, national 24/7 weather channel with studios in Denver and Minneapolis. Founder of Media Logic Group, Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for media at Broadcast Weather, and high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. | Send Paul a question.

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Indian Summer Alert by Midweek - 2014: Third Warmest Worldwide, To Date

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: October 12, 2014 - 9:14 PM

Everybody Sells

"Hey Paul, remember me? You came to my 4th grade class 27 years ago. I was the guy in the back of the room!" Um, no. But I'll pretend if it makes you happy.

My short-term memory is a mess but I remember my 11th grade English teacher, Mrs. Eisenhart. "Use action words!" she instructed. "It's not fair but people will judge you by how well you speak" she added. She was right.

Whether selling products or services, advancing public policy or just trying to convince your 16 year old to take AP math, the words you choose are critical.

Substance matters. So does effective communication. That's why public speaking is so critical - learning to tame those inner butterflies.

After a weekend frost/freeze the growing season is over, statewide. Bugs, pollen and drippy dew points are a thing of the past.

A frontal passage sparks a few hours of showers today; a major storm over the southern Plains pushes a pinwheel of showers into Wisconsin later this week. Highs top 60F much of this week, and after a flurry of weekend jackets (highs near 50F) a warm ridge of high pressure returns next week. I see more 60s, even a 70-degree high or two in late October.

My Halloween costume this year? I think I'll go as "Al Nino".


Blah Monday - Then Touch of Indian Summer. Now that we've had our first frost/freeze we can (officially) call it Indian Summer. Showers keep temperatures in the 50s today, but the sun returns Tuesday into Thursday morning, with highs in the low 60s, even a few mid-60s are possible close to home. Winds swing around to the northwest by late week - weekend jackets give way to another warming trend. By the end of next week highs may be in the 60s to near 70F.


Flash Flood Potential. Models are printing out 3"+ rains for Atlanta, Chicago and Kansas City, as a large, slow-moving storm pushes from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes.

Full Latitude Trough. A slow-motion swirl of cold air aloft lifts a swirl of heavy showers and T-storms across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and East Coast by Thursday. Heavy rain pushes into the Pacific Northwest, but no significant rain brewing for California - yet. 60-hour NAM accumulated rain courtesy of NOAA and HAMweather.


Tornado Potential Index. A rare mid-October outbreak of severe storms and possible tornadoes is likely later today from near Houston to Shreveport, Little Rock and Memphis as this storm spins up. TPI Index: HAMweather. NOAA SPC may have to upgrade the risk from "slight" to "moderate".


384 Hour Outlook. The map above shows 850 mb winds (3,500 feet or so) two weeks from tomorrow, on October 28. GFS guidance whips up an impressive storm for New England, but it looks like a mild zonal flow for the western half of the USA, with a mild bias from the Dakotas into Minnesota. We'll see more 60s, and I don't think we've seen the last of the 70-degree warmth just yet. 90? Dream on.

First Metro Seattle Tornado Warning in 45 Years? A swarm of waterspouts were spotted near Tacoma on Saturday; more details from vancitybuzz.com: "...The tornado warning was called off within the same hour it was issued. It is the first tornado warning for the Metro Seattle region in nearly 45 years, KOMO News reports. For the Metro Vancouver, the last confirmed tornado sighting was in 1962. An unconfirmed event also happened in 1988 on the eastern fringes of the region..."


Brazil Drought Crisis Deepends in Sao Paulo. Much of Central and South America is experiencing drought conditions; here's an excerpt from The BBC: "The governor of the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo has asked for emergency clearance to siphon the remaining water out of the main reservoir serving Sao Paulo city, which has almost run dry. After nine months of unprecedented drought, 95% of the water has gone. Geraldo Alckmin, re-elected in last week's elections, has been criticised for not imposing water rationing to tackle the crisis. Twenty-nine other Brazilian cities have been affected by the drought..." (Photo: AP).


Not Just California. Droughts Extend Across Americas. More perspective from NBC News; here's a clip: "...A dry spell has killed cattle and wiped out crops in Central America, parts of Colombia have seen rioting over scarce water, and southern Brazil is facing its worst dry spell in 50 years. In the U.S., the few who have taken notice of this wider water scarcity include a former director of the U.S. Geological Survey. Now editor-in-chief of the journal Science, Marcia McNutt last month penned an editorial highlighting what she called “a drought of crisis proportions” across the Americas..." (Photo credit: Andre Penner, AP).


Is California Headed To "Megadrought"? UT San Diego has the story, looking at previous dry spells across the western USA; here's an excerpt that caught my eye: "...In a study published this month, Cornell University researcher Toby Ault and some of his colleagues calculated the risk of a megadrought happening this century. Ault is a professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University. He and the other researchers concluded that natural circumstances and climate change combine to put the likelihood of a decade-long drought in the Southwest at 50 percent to 80 percent. And they estimate that the chance of a megadrought, which they define as a 35-year dry period, is 10 percent to 50 percent by the end of this century..."

Photo credit above: "In this photo taken Oct. 6, 2014, a dock sits high and dry at the end of a boat ramp yards away from the edge of Folsom Lake near Folsom, Calif. The California Department of Water Resources reported Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014, the largest monthly decline in water use this year as the severity of California's drought hits home. Water suppliers reported that consumption fell 11.5 percent in August compared with the year before." (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli) The Associated Press.


University of Miami's New Research Tank May Hold Key to Hurricane Forecasts. A monstrous aquarium that can simulate Category 5 hurricane winds and waves? You could sell tickets to this experience (life insurance policies too). Here's the intro to a story at The Miami Herald: "When hurricanes sweep across the ocean’s surface, they whip up a foamy mix of sea and air, swapping energy in a loop that can crank up the force of powerful storms. The physics of that exchange — nearly impossible to measure in the dangerous swirl of a real storm — has remained largely a mystery, vexing meteorologists who have struggled to improve intensity predictions even as they bettered forecast tracks. Now scientists have a shot at solving that puzzle with a new 38,000-gallon research tank unveiled this month at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami..."



Not Even George Clooney Can Change The Weather. Yes, think twice before buying a luxury manor home on the banks of the Thames River in England. Here's an excerpt from the U.K. Mirror: "...George Clooney and new wife Amal may have just had the wedding of their dreams - but they're now suffering a headache over their marital home. The actor, who married the British lawyer in a lavish ceremony in Italy last month, bought Grade II-listed Aberlash Manor in Sonning, Berkshire, unaware he would have to spend about £50,000 on flood defences because it's so close to the Thames..."


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article2684450.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article2684450.html#storylink=cpy

Our Sun In A Halloween Mood? Check out this article from Tech Times: "...Scientists at NASA got this ghoulish image by combining several images of active regions on the sun. "The active regions appear brighter because those are areas that emit more light and energy — markers of an intense and complex set of magnetic fields hovering in the sun's atmosphere, the corona," according to NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...."

Image credit above: NASA / GSFC / SDO.



61 F. high in the Twin Cities Sunday.

60 F. average high on October 12.

58 F. high on October 12, 2013.

October 12 in Minnesota Weather History. Source: MPX National Weather Service:

1917: Record low temperatures occurred across central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from the low to mid teens to the upper teens and lower 20s. St. Cloud had the coldest temperature of 10 degrees Fahrenheit; likewise, Mora recorded a low of 13 degrees Fahrenheit.

1880: An early blizzard struck southwest and west central counties in Minnesota. Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft in the Canby area lasted until the next spring.

1820: Snowstorm at Ft. Snelling dumps 11 inches.


TODAY: Cool and damp. Few hours of showers. Winds: N 5-10. High: 56

MONDAY NIGHT: A few more showers and sprinkles, mainly east metro. Low: 46

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. High: 63

WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sun, no complaints. Wake-up: 43. High: 62

THURSDAY: Clouds increase. Wisconsin showers. Wake-up: 44. High: 63

FRIDAY: Intervals of sun, turning breezy and cooler. Wake-up: 48. High: 58

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, jackets return. Wake-up: 41. High: near 50

SUNDAY: Early sun, PM showers. Wake-up: 37. High: 51


Climate Stories...

Simmering September. It's not official, but it would appear, based on NASA GISS data that after the warmest August on record, worldwide, September may also have the distinction of being the warmest on record. Check out the temperature anomalies over Antarctica above, as much as 4-9C warmer than average.

* Preliminary NASA GISS data suggests that 2014 (January - September) is the 3rd warmest on record, worldwide.


After Record Heat in August. August was the warmest ever observed over global land and water, according to NASA GISS. Once again look at the temperature anomalies over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.


"...Bogus scepticism does not centre on an impartial search for the truth, but on a no-holds-barred defence of a preconceived ideological position. The bogus sceptic is thus, in reality, a disguised dogmatist, made all the more dangerous for his success in appropriating the mantle of the unbiased and open-minded inquirer..." - Richard Wilson in an article at NewStatesman; details below.


The Gathering Storm. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Secretary of State John Kerry at Huffington Post that got my attention: "...Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, who leads the U.S. Pacific Command, said climate change "will cripple the security environment." Vice Admiral Lee F. Gunn (Ret.), the president of the American Security Project, wrote that "addressing the consequences of changes in the Earth's climate is not simply about saving polar bears or preserving the beauty of mountain glaciers. Climate change is a threat to our national security. Taking it head on is about preserving our way of life." General Gordon R. Sullivan (Ret.) -- the former Army chief of staff -- said that "climate instability will lead to instability in geopolitics and impact American military operations around the world..." (File photo: AP).


These 14 States Have a Climate Action Plan - The Rest Of You Are Screwed. Possibly my favorite headline of the week. Minnesota is catching up, the state seems to be taking adaptation and resilience seriously. Here's an excerpt from The Atlantic CityLab: "...Researchers at the center, a D.C. policy research group based at Georgetown University's law school, surveyed states' climate adaptation policies—plans to build sea walls, for example, or to shift hazardous waste facilities out of flood zones. They found that only a minority of states—14 right now—have fully fledged adaptation plans with specific goals in place. Nine more have adaptation plans in the works. The rest have not developed statewide adaptation plans (though a number of these states do have plans in place at the local or regional level)..."


Against The Evidence. What's the critical difference between doubt and dogmatism? Here's an excerpt of an interesting story at NewStatesman: "...In a sceptical age, even those disseminating wholly bogus ideas - from corporate pseudo-science to 9/11 conspiracy theories - will often seek to appropriate the language of rational inquiry. But there is a meaningful difference between being a "sceptic" and being in denial. The genuine sceptic forms his beliefs through a balanced evaluation of the evidence. The sceptic of the bogus variety cherry-picks evidence on the basis of a pre-existing belief, seizing on data, however tenuous, that supports his position, and yet declaring himself "sceptical" of any evidence, however compelling, that undermines it..."

Flashes of Indian Summer - Mild Bias Lingers into Late October

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: October 11, 2014 - 9:51 PM

No Drama October

If only we could bottle this magic weather elixir and the view out the window. Trees are wearing their rainbow jackets, posing for pictures. A stubble of frost has ended the growing season, and the sneezing season. Allergy-suffers can breathe easier - and all the mosquitoes have died and gone to bug heaven. RIP.

A preliminary scan of NOAA data suggests October sees the fewest watches and warnings of any month. Big storms can spin up, with only a small risk of extremes that can get you in serious trouble like tornadoes, flash floods, ice storms or blizzards. It's the in-between season.

Patterns can be similar, but never identical. Odds don't favor another 30-year winter like we had last year. I'm seeing cues that suggest winter snow and cold closer to average, even a bit milder than normal.

Winds and clouds slowly increase today, any showers holding off until after the Vikings game. Rain spills into Monday, and a southern storm may push more showers back into Minnesota by Thursday. A minor puff of Canadian air arrives late week, but what really caught my eye was ECMWF (European) guidance for next week. A massive ridge of high pressure sparks a string of 60s, even 70F.

Yes, I'm smitten.

* photo credit: Mike Hall Photography.


Technicolor Rainbow. Actually it was a double rainbow (notice how the colors reverse as white light is refracted twice within prism-like raindrops). Photo taken in Missoula, Montana courtesy of grantr44.


Eastern Pacific Trough - Modified Zonal Flow for USA. Watch for the uber-persistent ridge of high pressure over the west coast to begin weakening in the weeks ahead, with at least the possibility of some precious rains pushing into California. If this pattern emerges it would push a warm ridge east of the Rockies, meaning a mild bias into at least the end of October. 500 mb winds aloft forecast for October 17-21 courtesy of NOAA.


Full-Latitude October Storm. NAM guidance shows a significant surge of Gulf moisture pushing across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley into the Midwest Monday and Tuesday, with a few showers rotating into the Great Lakes, even Minnesota and Wisconsin by late Wednesday and Thursday. Short-term a trailing front pushes a few rain showers across Minnesota later today and Monday, but the heaviest rains this week fall to our south and east. Some 3 inch amounts are predicted from near Des Moines to Nashville and Little Rock. 60-hour accumulated rainfall: HAMweather.



A Fairly Nice Couple of Weeks. Last week was remarkable, and the next 10-14 days promises to be pretty nice, especially next week. The metro area brushes 60F today, again Tuesday, with a better chance of a streak of 60s emerging next week as a ridge of high pressure builds north. I expect dry weather for the Vikes game; a period of rain tomorrow and a possibilty of showers by Thursday as a pinwheel of southern moisture brushes the Upper Midwest. MSP Meteogram: WeatherSpark.


Peaking Fall Color. This will be the weekend to check out ripening leaves from Alexandria Lakes to the Brainerd Lakes area, much of northern Minnesota and the Red River Valley already past peak. My hunch is that metro trees will peak in the next 7-8 days, peak color along the Mississippi River is still 1-2 weeks away. Source: Minnesota DNR.


Changing Day Length Effects on Daily Temperature. Here's a clip from the latest installment of Minnesota WeatherTalk, courtesy of Dr. Mark Seeley: "...As we continue to lose daylight hours this month, you may notice an increase in the daily temperature range. Though the sun will heat the dry landscape substantially during the day (as we have seen this week), the longer nights allow for more cooling to occur, dropping the overnight lows to a greater degree than just a month ago. This produces a larger daily temperature range in the absence of significant cloud cover (note many observers reported a 30-35 degrees F temperature rise on Monday, October 6th)..."


University of Miami's New Research Tank May Hold Key to Hurricane Forecasts. A monstrous aquarium that can simulate Category 5 hurricane winds and waves? You could sell tickets to this experience (life insurance policies too). Here's the intro to a story at The Miami Herald: "When hurricanes sweep across the ocean’s surface, they whip up a foamy mix of sea and air, swapping energy in a loop that can crank up the force of powerful storms. The physics of that exchange — nearly impossible to measure in the dangerous swirl of a real storm — has remained largely a mystery, vexing meteorologists who have struggled to improve intensity predictions even as they bettered forecast tracks. Now scientists have a shot at solving that puzzle with a new 38,000-gallon research tank unveiled this month at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami..."


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article2684450.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article2684450.html#storylink=cpy

Study Says Gulf and East Coasts May See Tripling of Flood Events By 2030. Rising seas are compounding coastal flood potential; here's an excerpt from VICE News: "...Over the next 30 years, King Tide-like conditions might become the "new normal" as "more tidal flooding is virtually guaranteed," according to a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). UCS analyzed flooding in 52 coastal communities, from Maine to Texas, and found that many of these areas now experience dozens of tidal floods per year, up to four times the number of tidal flooding days as occurred in 1970. By 2030, two-thirds of these communities are likely to see at least triple the number of high tide floods annually, says UCS..."

File photo: Virginia Department of Transportation.


Decade of Destruction: The Wrath of 15 Hurricanes In One Infographic. Here's an excerpt from an interesting story (and terrific infographic) from Capital Weather Gang: "...The Master of Public Administration program at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill created the infographic below that summarizes the overwhelming toll of these storms which collectively claimed over 2,000 lives, destroyed millions of homes, and cost $310 billion. Incredibly, the last “major” hurricane – ranked category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale – to make landfall in this stretch was Wilma in 2005. The storms thereafter were “only” category 1 and 2s, yet still left damages in the billions of dollars..."


Wisconsin City Votes To Get Rid of Tornado Sirens. I know sirens are expensive to maintain, and a switchover to text alerts sure sounds like a good idea, assuming everyone is walking around Antigo, WI with a smart phone and everyone has the capacity to receive text alerts. Until that day comes I'm not sure about this one; here's an excerpt from local8now.com: "The Antigo City Countil voted Thursday night to do away with its two traditional tornado sirens and switch to a text alert system. The Langade County Emergency Management Director says the warning system needs at least $35,000 worth of upgrades to continue functioning, in addition to adding another one..."


The Suicide Crisis. Kudos to USA Today for running a series on America's silent epidemic, the second greatest cause of death for young people. Here's an excerpt from Part 1 of 4 painful, yet critically important chapters within the larger narrative. It's worth a read: "...Americans are far more likely to kill themselves than each other. Homicides have fallen by half since 1991, but the U.S. suicide rate keeps climbing. The nearly 40,000 American lives lost each year make suicide the nation's 10th-leading cause of death, and the second-leading killer for those ages 15-34. Each suicide costs society about $1 million in medical and lost-work expenses and emotionally victimizes an average of 10 other people. Yet a national effort to stem this raging river of self-destruction — 90% of which occurs among Americans suffering mental illness — is in disarray..."


Our Sun In A Halloween Mood? Check out this article from Tech Times: "...Scientists at NASA got this ghoulish image by combining several images of active regions on the sun. "The active regions appear brighter because those are areas that emit more light and energy — markers of an intense and complex set of magnetic fields hovering in the sun's atmosphere, the corona," according to NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center...."

Image credit above: NASA / GSFC / SDO.



31 F. low Saturday morning, first sub-freezing temperature since April 18 in the Twin Cities.

57 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.

61 F. average high on October 11.

75 F. high on October 11, 2013.

October 11 in Minnesota Weather History. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service:

1969: Snow accumulated in several locations. Minneapolis received 2 inches, while St. Cloud record 3.6 inches, Redwood Falls had 1.7 inches, and Springfield recorded 1.5 inches.

1918: Dry fall weather set the stage for a dangerous fire threat. Several fires roared through large area of Carlton and St. Louis County. Hardest hit were the towns of Cloquet, Moose Lake and Brookston. The Carlton County Vidette called it a "Hurricane of burning leaves and smoke." At least 453 people died, possibly as many as 1,000. Over 11,000 people were homeless.


TODAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Late showers. WInds: S 20. High: 60

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouds, a few showers. Low: 50

COLUMBUS DAY: Damp, periods of rain. High: 56

TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, pleasant. Wake-up: 43. High: 61

WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase. Wake-up: 41. High: 58

THURSDAY: Unsettled, chance of a few showers. Wake-up: 48. High: 57

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, cooler breeze. Wake-up: 45. High: 56

SATURDAY: Fading sun, showers at night. Wake-up: 38. High: 57


Climate Stories...

"...Bogus scepticism does not centre on an impartial search for the truth, but on a no-holds-barred defence of a preconceived ideological position. The bogus sceptic is thus, in reality, a disguised dogmatist, made all the more dangerous for his success in appropriating the mantle of the unbiased and open-minded inquirer..." - Richard Wilson in an article at NewStatesman; details below.


The Gathering Storm. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Secretary of State John Kerry at Huffington Post that got my attention: "...Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, who leads the U.S. Pacific Command, said climate change "will cripple the security environment." Vice Admiral Lee F. Gunn (Ret.), the president of the American Security Project, wrote that "addressing the consequences of changes in the Earth's climate is not simply about saving polar bears or preserving the beauty of mountain glaciers. Climate change is a threat to our national security. Taking it head on is about preserving our way of life." General Gordon R. Sullivan (Ret.) -- the former Army chief of staff -- said that "climate instability will lead to instability in geopolitics and impact American military operations around the world..." (File photo: AP).


These 14 States Have a Climate Action Plan - The Rest Of You Are Screwed. Possibly my favorite headline of the week. Minnesota is catching up, the state seems to be taking adaptation and resilience seriously. Here's an excerpt from The Atlantic CityLab: "...Researchers at the center, a D.C. policy research group based at Georgetown University's law school, surveyed states' climate adaptation policies—plans to build sea walls, for example, or to shift hazardous waste facilities out of flood zones. They found that only a minority of states—14 right now—have fully fledged adaptation plans with specific goals in place. Nine more have adaptation plans in the works. The rest have not developed statewide adaptation plans (though a number of these states do have plans in place at the local or regional level)..."


Against The Evidence. What's the critical difference between doubt and dogmatism? Here's an excerpt of an interesting story at NewStatesman: "...In a sceptical age, even those disseminating wholly bogus ideas - from corporate pseudo-science to 9/11 conspiracy theories - will often seek to appropriate the language of rational inquiry. But there is a meaningful difference between being a "sceptic" and being in denial. The genuine sceptic forms his beliefs through a balanced evaluation of the evidence. The sceptic of the bogus variety cherry-picks evidence on the basis of a pre-existing belief, seizing on data, however tenuous, that supports his position, and yet declaring himself "sceptical" of any evidence, however compelling, that undermines it..."


A Glimpse Of A New, Emerging Clean Energy Economy. Check out how many jobs Massachusetts has added focused on clean energy; this clip courtesy of Massachusetts Clean Energy Center: "...Sec. Kerry returned to his hometown with Sec. Hammond to make their climate pitch because of the success Massachusetts has seen in capturing the economic and environmental benefits of clean energy. In Commonwealth alone, clean energy represents a $10 billion industry, comprised of nearly 6,000 companies and more than 88,000 workers, with growth expected to continue for years to come..."


Sec. Kerry returned to his hometown with Sec. Hammond to make their climate pitch because of the success Massachusetts has seen in capturing the economic and environmental benefits of clean energy.

In Commonwealth alone, clean energy represents a $10 billion industry, comprised of nearly 6,000 companies and more than 88,000 workers, with growth expected to continue for years to come.

- See more at: http://www.masscec.com/blog/2014/10/09/global-fight-against-climate-change#sthash.keJKGUQy.dpuf

"The sceptic of the bogus variety cherry-picks evidence on the basis of a pre-existing belief, seizing on data, however tenuous, that supports his position, and yet declaring himself  "scepticalof any evidence, however compelling, that undermines it. Such an approach has become typical of those who deny the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change and devolve quickly into conspiracies instead."


Our Planet Is Going to Blow Past The "Two Degrees" Climate Limit. Here's a clip from a story at New Republic: "...This call to nix the two-degrees metric has spurred a backlash from the climate-science establishment, and, more importantly, it raises big financial questions for companies and consumers worldwide. If the two-degrees goal changes, then so might the many climate policies framed around itpolicies that translate into costs for polluters and profitable markets for clean-energy providers. At stake in this fight over a couple of degrees is potentially billions of dollars..."


The $9.7 Trillion Problem: Cyclones and Climate Change. An estimated 35 percent of the world's 7 billion people live in the potential path of cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons, etc). Here's an excerpt from Climate Central: "You can do a lot with $9.7 trillion: buy all the real estate in Manhattan 12 times over, purchase 22 carbon copies of Apple, or an absurd quantity of apples. It’s also the amount of money that tropical cyclones could cost the global economy over the next century, especially if climate projections of fewer but more intense cyclones are accurate. In comparison to those losses, the cost of action to reduce emissions and beef up coastal preparedness is relatively cheap say researchers..."


Why Climate Change Litigation Could Soon Go Global. Canada's Globe and Mail has an intriguing story, one that should give trial lawyers a cheap thrill. Class action lawsuits down the road? Count on it. Here's an excerpt that caught my eye: "...Canadian oil and gas companies could soon find themselves on the hook for at least part of the damage. For as climate change costs increase, a global debate has begun about who should pay. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Desmond Tutu recently called on global leaders to hold those responsible for climate damages accountable. “Just 90 corporations – the so-called carbon majors – are responsible for 63 per cent of CO2 emissions since the industrial revolution,” Tutu said. “It is time to change the profit incentive by demanding legal liability for unsustainable environmental practices...”

Friday - Monday: More November than October. Rain-Snow Mix Up North Friday Night?

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: October 1, 2014 - 10:35 PM

Sloppy Miracle

The Talmud says "We do not see things as they are. We see them as we are." Someone once told me there are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle.

You may have serious doubts about alleged miracles as you slog home from work later today. Rain annoys commuters but look at the bright side: Minnesota is now drought-free. And this early October soaking is recharging soil moisture after a late summer dry spell, setting the stage for more agricultural miracles in 2015. And it's not snowing.

If anyone asks, last year the first flurries came October 19; the first inch of slush November 5-6. Pretty close to average, yet winter was anything but average. Let's take it one day at a time.

A second surge of rain clips the metro later today and tonight; more windblown showers tomorrow as a taste of early November arrives. Daytime highs hold near 50F tomorrow into Monday, before 60s return the middle of next week. Flurries are possible up north by tomorrow night; a metro frost can't be ruled out Sunday morning.

In defense of this wet, gloomy spell gray, soggy days are good for business.

Fewer distractions. Less time staring out the window.


Early Snow Red River Valley? Model guidance is hinting at an inch or two of slush Friday night near Bemidji and Hallock, although warm ground temperatures may trigger melting on contact. A coating of slush up north by Saturday morning? Very possible, and a few stray flakes may reach the MSP metro area late Friday night. North of Lake Superior over a foot of snow may fall as a cut-off low lingers, drawing in enough cold air for what may turn out to be a very significant snowfall. Insert gasp here. Map: Weatherbell.


More Early November Than Early October. A few models are hinting at a little wet snow reaching the Twin Cities by Friday night and early Saturday. Even if you spy a few flakes outside your window relatively mild ground temperatures should prevent anything from sticking.


An Early November - October Returns Next Week. Daytime highs may not climb out of the 40s Friday into Monday; if skies clear and winds ease frost may settle over many suburbs Sunday morning. Milder Pacific air returns next week with a good chance of highs topping 60F by midweek. Source: Weatherspark.


First Whiff of Winter. The leading edge of cooler air pushes a band of heavy rain from Kansas City into Chicago and Milwaukee today; a colder, second surge of Canadian air sweeping across the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. 60-hour accumulated 4 km NAM rainfall product: NOAA and HAMweather.


California Has Already Burned Through $209 Million Wildfire Budget, and SoCal's Fire Season Has Just Begun. Here are a few excepts of a story at The Los Angeles Times: "California has burned through its wildfire-fighting budget -- $209 million -- just as it faces what is historically the worst of the fire season. And the state already has tapped into its reserves, pulling out $70 million more to combat drought-fueled blazes...Some of the costs of fighting state wildfires will be reimbursed by the federal government. But those funds are running low. Wildfires cost the U.S. about $125 billion annually. Earlier this month, state officials requested that Congress set up an emergency reserve, like California's, to help pay for extreme fires..."


Weather Service Storm Forecasts Get More Localized. I've been showing you examples of NOAA's new HRRR (3 km) model, but earlier this week they made it official, going from beta to a more general release. Here's an excerpt of a story from AP and 8 News NOW: "The next time some nasty storms are heading your way, the National Weather Service says it will have a better forecast of just how close they could come to you. The weather service on Tuesday started using a new high resolution computer model that officials say will dramatically improve forecasts for storms up to 15 hours in advance. It should better pinpoint where and when tornadoes, thunderstorms and blizzards are expected, so people could take cover..." (HRRR model guidance above: NOAA and HAMweather.)


Weather Report: Forecasts Improving As Climate Gets Wilder. Here are a few interesting nuggets, courtesy of The BBC: "...The UK's Met Office says its four-day forecast is now as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago. And Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service, part of the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says: "We can now predict extreme weather events five to seven days in advance. "Twenty years ago we would only have been able to look one day ahead." These improvements have only come about after investing billions in better satellites, weather stations and supercomputers..."


Earth Lost 50% Of It's Wildlife In The Past 40 Years, Says WWF. Some grim news from the World Wildlife Federation - here's an excerpt from The Guardian: "The number of wild animals on Earth has halved in the past 40 years, according to a new analysis. Creatures across land, rivers and the seas are being decimated as humans kill them for food in unsustainable numbers, while polluting or destroying their habitats, the research by scientists at WWF and the Zoological Society of London found. “If half the animals died in London zoo next week it would be front page news,” said Professor Ken Norris, ZSL’s director of science. “But that is happening in the great outdoors. This damage is not inevitable but a consequence of the way we choose to live.” He said nature, which provides food and clean water and air, was essential for human wellbeing..."

Photo credit above: "Rubbish dumped on the tundra outside llulissat in Greenland stand in stark contrast to icebergs behind from the Sermeq Kujullaq or llulissat Ice fjord – a Unesco world heritage site." Photograph: Global Warming Images/WWF-Canon.


Wind, Solar Generation Capacity Catching Up With Nuclear Power. Here's an excerpt of an interesting (and encouraging) article at Vital Signs Online, courtesy of The Worldwatch Institute: "Nuclear’s share of global power production has declined steadily from a peak of 17.6 percent in 1996 to 10.8 percent in 2013. Renewables increased their share from 18.7 percent in 2000 to 22.7 percent in 2012.  Hydropower was the leading source of renewable electricity (16.5 percent of global power in 2012), while wind contributed 3.4 percent and solar, 0.6 percent.  But wind and solar energy are the fastest growing electricity technologies worldwide. Between 2000 and 2012, wind power grew nearly 16-fold and solar jumped 49-fold..."


FCC Considering Move To Ban Washington Redskins Name. Interesting times for the NFL and many team owners. I vote for Washington Lobbyists. Has a nice ring. Here's an excerpt from Reuters and Huffington Post: "The Federal Communications Commission is considering whether to punish broadcasters for using the moniker of the Washington NFL team, the Redskins, a word many consider a slur to Native Americans, the agency's chairman indicated on Tuesday. The FCC, which enforces broadcast indecency violations, has received a petition from legal activist John Banzhaf III, asking that regulators strip local radio station WWXX-FM of its broadcasting license when it comes up for renewal for using the name "Redskins..."


Caffeine-Infused Underwear Probably Doesn't Help You Lose Weight. That may come as a shock to some of you, but this story excerpt from Reuters explains in more detail: "Bras, girdles and leggings infused with caffeine and sold as weight loss aids were more decaf than espresso, and the companies that sold them have agreed to refund money to customers and pull their ads, U.S. regulators said on Monday. The Federal Trade Commission said Wacoal America and Norm Thompson Outfitters, which owns Sahalie and others, were accused of deceptive advertising that claimed their caffeine-impregnated clothing would cause the wearer to lose weight and have less cellulite..."


57 F. high in the Twin Cities Wednesday.

65 F. average high on October 1.

77 F. high on October 1, 2013.

.69" rain fell at MSP International Airport yesterday.

October 1, 1953: A record high of 90 degrees Fahrenheit for the St. Cloud area was recorded in 1953 (and later tied in 1992). Minneapolis also set a record that same day in 1953 with a high of 89 degrees.

October 1, 1849: Persistent rain at Ft. Snelling leaves 4 inches in a day-and-a half.


TODAY: Clouds increase, more showers later in the day. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 61

THURSDAY NIGHT: A few showers. Low: 45

FRIDAY: Colder wind, passing PM showers. Heavy jackets/blankets for evening football games. Wet snow may mix in up north. High: 50

SATURDAY: Fine November day. Mostly cloudy and brisk. Wake-up: 38. High: 49

SUNDAY: Metro frost possible. Dry, chilly Twin Cities Marathon with intervals of sun. Wake-up: 34. High: 50

MONDAY: Mostly gray, still raw for early October. Wake-up: 37. High: 48

TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, a bit better. Wake-up: 36. High: 54

WEDNESDAY: Milder, few PM showers up north. Wake-up: 45. High: 64


Climate Stories...

How Will Climate Change Affect Fall Foliage? Modern Farmer takes a look at how shifting seasons are impacting the timing and intensity of peak fall color; here's the introduction: "Researchers at Princeton University recently took a deep dive into the lovely autumnal colors of the Northeast and Midwest with an eye on climate change. They found that as the planet heats up, fall foliage will respond in messy, unpredictable ways — and that as a whole, leaves will begin changing color later and the period in which bright orange, red and yellow leaves stay on trees will last longer. But even though tourists in Vermont may celebrate, it’s important to note that the researchers’ findings indicate changes that could extend beyond fall photo ops. Trees, as it turns out, are the canary in the coal mine..."


Antarctica Has Lost Enough Ice To Cause A Measurable Shift in Gravity. Here's a clip from a story at Slate and WIRED: "...The biggest implication is the new measurements confirm global warming is changing the Antarctic in fundamental ways. Earlier this year, a separate team of scientists announced that major West Antarctic glaciers have begun an “unstoppable” “collapse,” committing global sea levels to a rise of several meters over the next few hundred years. Though we all learned in high-school physics that gravity is a constant, it actually varies slightly depending on where you are on the Earth’s surface and the density of the rock (or, in this case, ice) beneath your feet..."


This One Photo Perfectly Sums Up Why Climate Change is Real. Buzzfeed has the story and explanation; here's an excerpt: "...It's another remarkable sign of the dramatic environmental conditions changing as the result of sea ice loss," said World Wildlife Fund Arctic program director Margaret Williams. “The walruses are telling us what the polar bears have told us and what many indigenous people have told us in the high Arctic, and that is that the Arctic environment is changing extremely rapidly and it is time for the rest of the world to take notice and also to take action to address the root causes of climate change...”

Image credit above: AP Photo/NOAA, Corey Accardo.


Japanese Scientists Think Climate Change Could Alter Human Male-to-Female Birth Ratio. How on Earth could there be a link with extreme weather events? Here's an excerpt from The Mary Sue: "...After lining up monthly temperature data from the Japan Meteorological agency and fetal death data from the Vital Statistics of Japan database, Fukuda and a team of researchers believe that there is an association (though not causation that they can successfully pin down, of course) between extreme weather fluctuations and a decrease in male babies. They note in their findings, which were published this month in Fertility and Sterility journal, that two very intense seasonal shifts caught their attention in particular; a very hot summer in 2010 and a very cold winter in 2011, both of which correlate to an increase in fetal deaths and an eventual decrease in male babies being born..."


Thinner Too, Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Sixth Lowest on Record. Science 2.0 has an update on what's happening at the top of the world; here's a clip: "Arctic sea ice coverage declined to its annual minimum on September 17th and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder find that this year's minimum extent is similar to last year's and below the 1981-2010 average of 2.40 million square miles. Over the 2014 summer, Arctic sea ice melted back from its maximum extent reached in March to a coverage area of 1.94 million square miles, according to analysis from NASA and NSIDC scientists..."

Image credit above: "Arctic sea ice hit its annual minimum on Sept. 17, 2014. The red line in this image shows the 1981-2010 average minimum extent. Data provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency GCOM-W1 satellite." Image: NASA/Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio.


How Global Warming Affected Extreme Weather Events in 2013 - Interactive. Following up on yesterday's posts here's an effective interactive infographic from The Guardian: "From Australia’s off-the-charts heat wave to Colorado’s biblical deluge, Europe’s scorching summer, and Britain’s miserable spring, nine events were caused at least in part by climate change, scientists conclude in a report in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society on Monday. Overseen by the US Noaa and the UK Met Office, 92 scientists from 14 countries looked at how climate change affected 16 of the biggest weather events of 2013."


Growing, And Growing Vulnerable. Barrier islands are at special risk from warming/rising seas. Here's a clip from a story at The New York Times: "...But the barrier islands that line the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, from Cape Cod to the Mexican border, are a special case. A new report from the National Research Council finds that the effect of climate change is especially harsh on these islands. Population growth in much of this long coast “is nearly twice the national average,” the report said. Meanwhile, “these same coasts are subject to impact by some of the most powerful storms on earth and the destruction potential of these events is increasing due to climate change and relative sea-level rise...”

Photo credit above: "An aerial view of a breach in the Fire Island National Seashore caused by Hurricane Sandy." Credit National Park Service.

Sticky Stretch into Sunday. Twin Cities: 9th Hottest Urban Heat Island in USA

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 22, 2014 - 4:29 PM

City Sizzle

The urban heat island is real; cities are hotter than surrounding suburbs. That's why climate records are maintained at sites well away from the asphalt and concrete of city cores.

The planet is warming, but cities are heating up much faster. A new report from Climate Central finds that the Twin Cities metro has the 9th most intense summer urban heat island of America's top 60 cities, with a daily average rural-urban temperature difference of 4.3F. Las Vegas is at the top of the list; The Strip a whopping 7.3F warmer than surrounding deserts.

80 percent of Americans live in cities and the urban heat island is heating up our metro areas much faster than rural areas. Details on the blog below.

Clouds kept us a bit cooler yesterday, but hazy sun should lure the mercury well into the 80s today and Saturday; low 90s possible Sunday with a debilitating dew point near 70F. Serious Dog Days.

I expect a dry sky at the State Fair today and much of tomorrow; a few storms rumble in late Saturday.

Mother Nature appears manic: a sizzling Sunday gives way to fresh air by midweek - lows near 50F by Thursday. Heat builds again late next week as 80s return.

Summer spills into September this year.


Getting Sunnier. This morning's fog and stratus has been slow to burn off, but the 1 KM visible loop shows drier air eroding stubborn low clouds over east central Minnesota - a good chance of spying the sun by the dinner hour into this evening (no T-storms expected). Loop: HAMweather.


* Graphics above courtesy of Climate Central, which has the full PDF report here.


Hot And Getting Hotter: Heat Islands Cooking U.S. Cities. Climate Central highlights the large (and growing) difference in temperature between the downtown urban core, experiencing additional heating from asphalt and concrete surfaces, versus outlying suburbs. The differences on a sunny, summer day can be extraordinary, as much as 10-20F. or more. Here's an excerpt: "...With more than 80 percent of Americans living in cities, these urban heat islands — combined with rising temperatures caused by increasing heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions — can have serious health effects for hundreds of millions of people during the hottest months of the year.  Heat is the No.1 weather-related killer in the U.S., and the hottest days, particularly days over 90°F, are associated with dangerous ozone pollution levels that can trigger asthma attacks, heart attacks, and other serious health impacts. Our analysis of summer temperatures in 60 of the largest U.S. cities found that: 57 cities had measurable urban heat island effects over the past 10 years. Single-day urban temperatures in some metro areas were as much as 27°F higher than the surrounding rural areas, and on average across all 60 cities, the maximum single-day temperature difference was 17.5°F..."


Saved By Stubborn Cumulus. A Heat Advisory was issued for a time yesterday from the southern suburbs into south central Minnesota as overheated air pushed into Minnesota. But lingering clouds kept temperatures cooler than they would have been had the sun stayed out for a few hours. There was enough instability for T-storms to bubble up; one sparked a possible tornado touchdown near Mountain Lake at 5:20 PM yesterday. Visible loop: HAMweather.


Drier Friday - Late Saturday Storm Risk. 4 KM NAM model data from NOAA shows the next wave of heavy T-storms rumbling across Minnesota late Saturday and Saturday night, but today should be partly sunny and dry with a light north/northeast breeze. Heat spikes Sunday (low 90s?) before a big cool-down early next week. 60-hour accumulated rain loop: HAMweather.


A Serious Case of the Stickies into Sunday. Long-range guidance shows a dew point in the upper 60s to near 70 today into Sunday, followed by a whiff of Canadian air much of next week as dew points tumble into the 40s and 50s. Storms are possible late Saturday, likely late Sunday as cooler air approaches; another round of showers Tuesday, especially southern Minnesota. We dry out Wednesday - Friday of next week as temperatures slowly warm up. I could see a few sweatshirts coming out up north by Thursday morning.


Ramsey, Hennepin Among Counties Getting Flood Assistance. Many areas are still cleaning up and repairing flood damage from June's onslaught of rain. June was the wettest month in recorded Minnesota history, statewide, and 37 counties are now getting assistance from FEMA. Here's more from The Star Tribune: "Hennepin and Ramsey counties will be eligible for federal funds for emergency relief and reconstruction following flooding in June, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced Thursday. That brings the number of Minnesota counties receiving flood assistance to 37, plus three tribal governments. Dakota County is still assessing its damages, according to state officials..."

File photo credit above: "In a Friday June 27, 2014 photo, homes are surrounded with sandbags in Prior Lake , Minn. for protection from flood waters by Prior Lake. Minnesota communities are trying to bounce back from last month's flooding as damage estimates continue to rise." (AP Photo/The Star Tribune,Kyndell Harkness)


El Nino: Down, But Not Out. Here's an excerpt of an in-depth look at ENSO and what will probably still be a mild to moderate El Nino event later in 2014 and early 2015, courtesy of International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University: "...Most of the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during late July and early August 2014 predict a transition from neutral ENSO conditions to weak El Nino conditions during northern early fall 2014 with some further warming predicted into late fall and winter 2014-15. Development of El Nino conditions appears approximately 50% likely for the Aug-Oct or Sep-Nov seasons of 2014, and rises to 70-75% by Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb 2014-15..."


63 Trillion Gallons of Groundwater Lost in Drought, Study Finds. This story at The Los Angeles Times provides perspective, and a few staggering statistics; here's a clip: "The ongoing drought in the western United States has caused so much loss of groundwater that the Earth, on average, has lifted up about 0.16 inches over the last 18 months, according to a new study. The situation was even worse in the snow-starved mountains of California, where the Earth rose up to 0.6 inches. Researchers from UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the U.S. Geological Survey estimated the groundwater loss from the start of 2013 to be 63 trillion gallons — the equivalent of flooding four inches of water across the United States west of the Rocky Mountains..." (Latest U.S. Drought Monitor data is here).


Hurricane Hype Is Here To Stay - Forecasters Must Adapt. Because now everyone is an armchair meteorologist, and can tweet information that is dubious or outright malicious. I echo many of meteorologist Jason Samenow's concerns over at Capital Weather Gang; here's an excerpt of what he had to say about recent hurricane-hype: "...Many weather communicators want the public to understand the full range of possibilities.  We want the public to appreciate that model simulations for storms more than five days into the future aren’t realistic.  We lament that armchair meteorologists (amateurs, students, novices, etc.) post unreliable model simulations on social media – without any context - of a storm obliterating a coastal city. We cringe when these suspect forecasts are shared thousands of times, misleading an unknowing public. While some us are secretly envious of the attention, we ultimately worry about a loss of public trust in weather forecasting when they are wrong (most of the time)..."

* ECMWF forecast valid next Wednesday evening courtesy of WSI. The European model hints at a close encounter for the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but keeps any tropical system offshore. We'll see.


A Wildly Erratic GFS Solution. 3 days ago the GFS was hinting at a possible tropical landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast near Louisiana. 2 days ago eastern Florida was in the crosshairs. Yesterday's 18Z run (above) shows a possible hurricane bearing down on Bermuda. If the trends continue residents of Spain had better watch out. Translation: confidence levels are still VERY low, but the situation bears watching. Map: Weather Bell.


New Study Reveals The Lingering Economic Devastation Left by Hurricanes. The negative impact from hurricanes can linger not only years, but decades after a major strike. Here's an excerpt of a story that caught my eye, courtesy of Business Insider Malaysia: "... A full fifteen years after a hurricane or typhoon strikes a country, that country’s per capita GDP will be lower by 0.38% for each meter per second of top wind speed than it would have been without the cyclone. So, a storm whose top wind speed was 10 m/s, or about 22 miles per hour, would have its per capita GDP lowered by about 3.8% fifteen years later, compared to a stormless baseline. The authors also note that cyclones have a much more severe effect on countries with multiple storms. Because each hurricane or typhoon negatively affects GDP in the long term, multiple storms over a period of time can have effects that add up..."

Graphic credit above: Hsiang and Jina, July 2014


Using GPS To Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts. Here's an excerpt of a forecast from UCAR in Boulder, Colorado focusing on promising new technology that may be able to help pinpoint cyclone track and intensity: "One of the challenges in forecasting tropical cyclones is that measuring atmospheric conditions over the open ocean is extremely difficult. New research indicates that the COSMIC microsatellite system, which uses a technology known as GPS radio occultation to observe remote regions of the atmosphere, can significantly improve predictions of tropical cyclones. Forecasts traditionally draw on observations taken by instruments on Earth’s surface or by radiosondes, which are lifted into the atmosphere by balloons. But both these approaches are limited in hard-to-access places, like the open ocean. In contrast, GPS radio occultation measurements can be made almost anywhere, and they are unaffected by clouds, light rain, or airborne aerosols..."

Image credit above: "By using GPS signals to monitor the atmosphere in three dimensions, the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellite constellation has led to improved global weather monitoring, especially in data-sparse regions." (Image courtesy UCP/COSMIC).


How The "Year of Four Hurricanes" Changed Florida's Readiness. New communications tools exist that weren't around 10 years ago, but amazing platforms like cell phone texts, Twitter and Facebook can transmit not only essential, accurate information and warnings, but also rumor, inuendo and misinformation. Here's an excerpt of what's changed (for the better) from Emergency Management: "...Communications: When the 2004 storms struck, Twitter did not exist. Neither did the iPhone. A new website called TheFacebook had just been created in a Harvard dorm room. When it came to hurricanes, the latest news arrived via television, the Web and radio. Today, when a storm gets close, text alerts will go out to anyone within range of South Florida cellphone antennas, even if their phone has a Cleveland or New York City area code. Emergency managers also plan to rely heavily on social media to get the word out. At the Broward County Emergency Operations Center, about 40 volunteers have been trained to monitor Facebook and Twitter for information on people trapped, in need of food or dealing with other emergency situations, said emergency manager Miguel Ascarrunz..."

Photo credit above: "Charley was the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in 2004." (Andrea Booher/FEMA).


Twins: A Gold Mine for Research. I married a twin. And no, I don't get them confused. That could be fatal. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating tale from The Atlantic: "This is one party where virtually no one shows up alone. Two thousand sets of twins packed into the small city of Twinsburg, Ohio earlier this month to celebrate their twin-ness at a three-day festival called Twins Days. Throughout the weekend, twins marched in the “Double Take” parade, competed in look-alike contests, and snapped photos with one another at a welcome wiener roast on Friday night. Though the festival is meant for twins, there is another group that is just as eager to attend this annual celebration of shared genetics—scientists..."

Photo credit above: "Each year, thousands of attendees dress alike for Twins Days. These twins were taking a dip in the pool at the Bertram Inn and Conference Center in Aurora, Ohio on the first day of the festival." (Charles Robinson).


Ripening Leaves? Media Logic Group meteorologist Susie Martin snapped this photo of a sugar maple leaf in Eden Prairie. The leaves are leaving...in late August? It's way too early for that.


You Can't Make This Stuff Up - Or Can You? There's some debate online about whether this video clip of a guy in Australia stalking a dust devil is real. I've looked at it pretty carefully, and I don't think this was done with special effects. Impressive, but can he get life insurance? Check it out here.



85 F. high in the Twin Cities Thursday.

80 F. average high on August 21.

88 F. high on August 21, 2013.

.07" rain fell at MSP International Airport yesterday.

August 21 in Minnesota Weather History:

1910: Daylight is dimmed in Duluth due to smoke from Rocky Mountain forest fires.

1870: Downpours across southern Minnesota with 5 inches at Sibley, and 3.49 at Ft. Snelling. Much of the wheat crop was damaged.


TODAY: Partly sunny, sticky and dry. Dew point: 67. Winds: NE 5. High: 85

FRIDAY NIGHT: Warm and sultry. Low: 71

SATURDAY: Murky sun, T-storms rumble in late. Dew point: 70. High: 86

SUNDAY: Stinking hot. Hot sun much of the day. Late day storm risk. Wake-up: 74. High: 91 (Heat Index near 100 by late afternoon?)

MONDAY: Blue sky, less humid. Dew point: 56. Wake-up: 67. High: 80

TUESDAY: Clouds, few showers likely. Wake-up: 63. High: 74

WEDNESDAY: Some sun, fresh air! Dew point: 49. Wake-up: 57. High: 72

THURSDAY: Bright sun, spectacular. Dew point: 47. Wake-up: 52. High: 76


Climate Stories...


Jet Stream Changes Driving Extreme Weather Linked Again to Global Warming, Arctic Ice Loss. Here's a story, video and links to research from ThinkProgress; an excerpt:

Weather extremes in the summer — such as the record heat wave in the United States that hit corn farmers and worsened wildfires in 2012 — have reached an exceptional number in the last ten years. Man-made global warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat, but the observed change in the magnitude and duration of some events is not so easily explained. It has been linked to a recently discovered mechanism: the trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere. A new data analysis now shows that such wave-trapping events are indeed on the rise.

A number of studies in recent years have linked this quantum jump in extreme weather to global warming and the warming-driven loss of Arctic ice (see here and here). Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University’s Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences has been at the forefront of this research. She explains her findings in this video..."


Greenland's Late August Rain Over Melt Ponds Is A Glacial Outburst Flood Hazard. Robert Scribbler has an interesting post; here's an excerpt: "Glacial melt ponding on steep ice faces. Above freezing temperatures for an extended period. Storms delivering rainfall to the glacier surface. These three events are a bad combination and one that, until recently, we’ve never seen before for Greenland. It is a set of circumstances directly arising from a human-driven warming of the great ice sheet. And it is one that risks a highly violent and energetic event in which melt ponds over-top and glaciers are flushed and ripped apart by surges of water rushing for scores of miles over and through the ice sheet..."

Map credit above: "GFS temperature and rainfall analysis for Greenland on August 21, 2014. Note the above freezing temperatures and rainfall over the region of the Jacobshavn Glacier for today." Image source: University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer.


Climate Change Scientists Call On Colleagues To Speak Up On Global Warming Debate. Here's a video and excerpt of a story at The Sydney Morning Herald: "...One of Australia’s most senior climate scientists has called on his colleagues not to sit on the sidelines of the political debate about global warming and other environmental issues, given the evidence they present asks society to consider fundamental changes. In a speech to be given to the Australian Academy of Science on Tuesday evening, Dr Michael Raupach will say environment scientists' position in the public debate had changed because they were now presenting evidence requiring society to make major choices in response..."


Meet The Climate Deniers Who Want to be President. What has happened to the Republican Party? You can't be pro-free markets and strong on defense, and still acknowledge basic science, at least when it comes to climate change? At some point I hope cooler (smarter) heads prevail. Younger voters are taking this subject very seriously and will vote accordingly. Here's an excerpt from a story by Ben Adler at Grist: "...The Republicans basically fall into four categories: (1) Flat-Earthers, who deny the existence of manmade climate change; (2) Born-Again Flat-Earthers, who do the same, but who had admitted climate change exists back before President Obama took office; (3) Do-Nothings, who sort of admit the reality of climate change but oppose actually taking any steps to prevent it; and (4) Dodgers, who have avoided saying whether they believe climate change is happening, and who also don’t want to take any steps to alleviate it. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker fall into the latter category.  The Do-Nothings are blue and purple state governors, Chris Christie of New Jersey and John Kasich of Ohio..."


Late-Night TV's Top 5 Moments in Denial-Busting. Forecast The Facts has links to some of the more memorable climate denier-debunking's; here's an excerpt and link to the videos: "Jon Stewart just delivered an epic takedown of climate change deniers, but that was hardly the first time late night TV has taken them on. Check out the top five moments in climate denial busting below — and share widely!"

Warm with a few Thundery Lumps - T.S. Iselle Delivers Hawaiian Punch - A Real Close Encounter for Steven Spielberg from a Hawaiian Hurricane 22 Years Ago

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: August 8, 2014 - 8:52 AM

Hawaiian Punch

Is there a state with "perfect weather"? San Diego has the best climate in America, on paper, but they're running out of fresh water. Hawaii has to be near the top of the list, a tropical paradise where severe weather is extremely rare.

While helping with special effects for "Jurassic Park" Steven Spielberg described how life imitated art. During filming on Kauai in 1992 Category 4 "Iniki" struck. They evacuated Spielberg and his film crew to the basement of the hotel. "You realize you could have drowned from the storm surge. In a hurricane you want to be on the third floor or higher" I told him. His eyes got very big. We changed the subject.

"Iselle" just struck the Big Island with near-hurricane force winds, for the first time on record. Maui and Oahu will be brushed by tropical storm conditions; the rough equivalent of a severe thunderstorm - one that lingers for 12-18 hours.

It puts our Sunday T-storms into perspective. A ridge of high pressure keeps us sunny, hazy & warm into Saturday. A storm may sprout late Saturday - a better chance Monday - with a welcome dip in humidity by midweek.

But any storms will be small and brief, without names.

I can live with that.


Predicted Wave Heights. The most significant (15-20 foot) waves should remain offshore, just east of Hilo, but significant storm surge damage can't be ruled from Iselle, especially on the windward (eastern) coast of the Big Island, near Hilo. Source: NOAA.


Wind Damage Potential. One of the models we look at (TAOS) shows potentially severe wind damage in and around Hilo, with moderate to widespread damage from sustained high winds across much of the Big Island. How the winds react to encountering Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa, two towering volcanoes, is an open question, since Big Island hasn't been hit by a hurricane or tropical storm since at least 1949. Only light/minor damage is expected from winds in Maui and Oahu, but heavy rains may spark flash flooding.


What To Expect From Hawaii's First Hurricane Landfall in 22 Years. Meteorologist Eric Holthaus has some interesting nuggets and perspective at Slate; here's an excerpt that caught my eye: "...Hawaiian hurricanes are rare. So rare that the National Weather Service doesn’t quite know what will happen, especially with Iselle’s circulation interacting with the two huge volcanoes on the Big Island, Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. The volcanoes could help to disrupt Iselle’s circulation, or they could even enhance its winds. A message from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu highlighted the risk:

In Hawaii, mountainous terrain accelerates hurricane and tropical storm winds causing extremely high winds that can destroy buildings, structures, trees, vegetation and crops..."

Animation credit: NOAA's WaveWatch III Model.


A Real Close Encounter: How 1992 Hurricane Iniki Disrupted the Filming of "Jurassic Park", and Put Steven Spielberg & Crew at Risk. You can't make this stuff up. A previous company ("EarthWatch") helped with some of the special effects in Jurassic Park - 3 dimensional animations for control room scenes, with scientists tracking a mythical storm approaching Jurassic Park. Foreshadow. In real life Category 4 Iniki chased the film's director, Steven Spielberg, and his crew into the basement of the hotel as the real-life storm approached, which may have been a precarious place to be. Remember, in a tornado you want to be below ground, if possible, but with the storm surge risk near the water in a hurricane you want to be on the third floor or higher of a well-constructed building, away from outer walls and windows. That's the unlikely topic of today's first Climate Matters segment: "Hurricane Iselle brings back memories for Paul Douglas. He tells the story of a meeting with Steven Spielberg when Hurricane Iniki impacted the production of Jurassic Park and how Spielberg learned a valuable hurricane safety tip."


Improved Long-Term Forecasts at Heart of National Hurricane Center's Goals. Claims Journal has an article focusing on new tools and capabilities from NHC, and a look at just how far we've come; here's an excerpt: "...Our track forecasts, for example, have been getting better year by year. Since 1990, our 48 hour track errors have come down from 200 nautical miles on average to about 70,” Franklin said. “Our three day forecast errors have come down in that period from about 300 nautical miles to 100 today.” According to Franklin, intensity errors have remained stable while storms have gotten stronger in a shorter amount of time..."


NOAA: Chances For Below-Average Hurricane Season Have Increased. The Capital Weather Gang puts it all into perspective; here's the intro: "If this year’s hurricane season has seemed quiet so far, it will likely continue to do so. In an update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts there is a now a 70 percent chance of a below-normal season. There is only a five percent chance of an above-normal season. From NOAA: The updated hurricane season outlook, which includes the activity to-date of hurricanes Arthur and Bertha, predicts a 70 percent chance of the following ranges: 7 to 12 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which 0 to 2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, 5; winds of at least 111 mph)..."


How Rare is "Iselle"? The Hawaiian Islands have been hit by 2 hurricanes since 1949: Dot in 1959 and Category 4 Iniki in 1992. Since 1949 the Big Island, Maui and Oahu have only been brushed by tropical depressions. Here's some additional perspective in our second installment of Climate Matters: "Hurricane Iselle bears down on Hawaii and should make landfall soon. That got us thinking. How rare are hurricanes in the Hawaiian Islands? WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas has more information in this Climate segment."


Isolated Saturday Storms. The farther west you travel, away from MSP, the better the odds of a stray T-storm or two late Saturday and Saturday night, in response to a weak upper level disturbance. Latest guidance suggests Sunday may actually be the sunnier, warmer, drier day, with T-storms potentially holding off until Sunday night.


Steamy Into Monday, Then Relief. Highs poke around in the low 80s today, Saturday and Sunday before cooling off slightly next week. After a spirited round of Monday T-storms (wettest day in sight) dew points drop off into the upper 40s and low 50s by midweek, so it will feel a lot more comfortable out there. A slow warming trend, and rise in humidity levels, is likely again toward the end of next week. Graph: Weatherspark.


60-Hour Accumulated Rainfall. More flash flooding is possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley as storms train along a lingering boundary; some 3-5" amounts can't be ruled out. Most instability storms puff up west of MSP into Saturday, but a stray storm could drift into the metro late Saturday or Saturday evening. 4 KM WRF data: NOAA and HAMweather.


Minnesota: Cooler than Average July, Still Drought-Free! No kidding. Here's an excerpt of a post from the Minnesota DNR:

  • July precipitation totals across Minnesota were light in all but a few locations. In some portions of southwest and south central Minnesota, monthly rainfall totals were less than one inch. July rainfall in most counties fell short of historical averages by one to three inches.
    [see: July 2014 Precipitation Map  |  July 2014 Precipitation Departure Map  | July 2014 Climate Summary Table]
  • The most notable heavy rain and severe weather event of July occurred on the evening of the 21st and the early morning hours of 22nd. Severe storms swept through portions of northern Minnesota bringing damaging winds and torrential downpours.
    [see: Heavy Rain and Severe Storms: July 21-22]
  • Average monthly temperatures for July in Minnesota were two to three degrees below the historical average at most locations. Extremes for July ranged from a high of 96 degrees F at Hutchinson on the 21st, to a low of 36 degrees F at Brimson (St. Louis County) on the 4th and Embarrass (St. Louis County) on the 16th.

Californians Have The Perfect Solution To The Drought - Paint The Lawn Green. I can't tell you how many times I wanted to do the same thing, or replace grass with no-maintenance mulch. Green dirt? Here's a clip from a story at Quartz: "...The story is far from unique. Companies that promise to paint lawns are cropping up all over California. The service lets homeowners cut back on water use without sacrificing curb appeal.  But the cosmetic cover-up masks an ugly reality: The Golden State is three years into what has now become its worst drought on record. And it’s only getting worse. The US Drought Monitor upgraded the intensity last week with a warning that more than half the state is now experiencing “exceptional” drought—the most severe category, according to federal researchers..."

Photo credit above: "It will just smell different." AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes.


Photos: Johnstown Then And Now, Embracing The History of Flood City. I don't think any of us can imagine what it must have been like when a wall of muddy water and debris overwhelmed the city of Johnstown, like an inland tsunami. NewsWorks does a good job of capturing the horror, and recovery - here's a clip: "...In June 1889, newspapers from around the world published sensational headlines that read "Horros of Horrors," "Awful Calamity. Johnstown Wiped Out!" and "Fire Finishes All Left By The Flood." On the last day of May, the South Fork Dam collapsed — sending a wall of water nearly 40-feet high from the man-made Lake Conemaugh, 14 miles through the river valley to Johnstown, Pennsylvania. Houses, churches, train cars and trees were ripped from foundations and swept away in flood waters. Piles of debris rushed down the Little Conemaugh River and became trapped in the arches of the Pennsylvania Railroad Stone Bridge near the center of Johnstown..."

Photo credit above: "Johnstown Then and Now. Bird's eye view of Johnstown, Pa. after the flood of 1889." (Image courtesy of the Library of Congresss)


The $2 Trillion Risk You Haven't Heard About. Maybe you have, if you've been paying attention. I've posted a few articles about the risk of a major X-Class solar flare (G4 or G5 strength) and what it could do to not only communications but the grid. It's something our corporate customers are most concerned about, even more than hurricanes and rising seas. Here's an excerpt from The PBS NewsHour: "There’s a 12 percent chance of something really disruptive hitting Earth in the next decade. How worried should we be? Very, says astronomer Donald Goldsmith. To put that risk in context, that’s about the same likelihood of another earthquake striking California. But the risk Goldsmith warns about is a lot less publicized: a type of solar flare, known as a coronal mass ejection, could cause economic damages up to $2 trillion, according to the National Academy of Sciences. (NewsHour science reporter Jenny Marder explained how the sun ejects these balls of gas in this 2011 story.) These potentially destructive solar storms are in the news this summer because of a recently published paper revealing just how close a CME came to hitting Earth two years ago. If this extreme solar storm had hit in July 2012, the University of Colorado’s Daniel Baker said, “We’d still be picking up the pieces....” (File photo above: AP).


See Power Plants Most Vulnerable to Flooding. Climate Central has an article and links to new tools that focus in on infrastructure, including power plants, most susceptible to storm surge, river and flash flooding. Here's an excerpt: "It doesn’t take rising seas for electric power plants and other energy infrastructure in the U.S. to flood. Major 100-year floods can do that without the help of climate change. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s new mapping tool announced Wednesday shows how such a flood could drown some of the nation’s most critical energy infrastructure — power plants, oil and gas wells, solar power installations, etc..."

Map credit above: "U.S. Energy Information Administration map of the flooding potential in Tampa, Fla. The blue shade represents 100-year flood risk, encompassing power plants south of downtown."


Bakken Oil Pipeline Would Bisect Minnesota, Cross 144 Waterways. InsideClimateNews has details that had me sitting up a little straighter in my chair - here's an excerpt: "...The 616–mile Sandpiper pipeline is one of the first major pipelines designed to carry crude oil out of the booming Bakken Shale region of North Dakota.  It will begin in the northwest corner of North Dakota and cross into Minnesota then pass 299 miles through the heart of the state to Superior, Wisc. Once running, it could carry nearly 10 million gallons of crude oil a day—an estimated 20 percent of the oil produced in the Bakken—to refineries in the Midwest and East and Canada...Yet the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has faulted the proposed route, saying it "shows a significantly higher potential for environmental damage" than other possible routes. It is asking for a detailed risk analysis of the proposed route that assesses the potential for leaks, how much oil might be spilled, and how it could affect groundwater, surface water and aquatic life..."

Map credit above: Paul Horn/InsideClimate News.


Box Office: Why "Into The Storm" Might Hit Hardest in Tornado Alley. The movie, an unofficial sequel to "Twister" (?) kicks off this weekend; here's a clip from The Hollywood Reporter: "...Remembering how well Twister did, many Midwestern theater chains expect a bump for Into the Storm, directed by Steven Quale and starring Richard Armitage and Sarah Wayne Callies.  "Especially in Oklahoma and southern Missouri, it should be really strong," says Brock Bagby, director of programming at Kansas-based theater chain B&B Theatres, which has locations throughout the Midwest. "I don't know if it's coping or it's just more interesting because it affects them," he tells The Hollywood Reporter. "In L.A., you’ve never seen a tornado." An executive at one of the country’s largest chains agrees. "I haven’t heard any complaints," he says..."

Image credit courtesy of Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc.


Tidal Power Generator Unveiling Hailed as Landmark. Power from the natural tidal ebb and flow of the seas? If costs continue to come down (much like solar) it could be another viable, zero-carbon source of electricity. Here's a snippet from The BBC: "...The 150-tonne demonstration device with a frame as high as a seven-storey building has been built in Pembroke Dock by Mustang Marine, recently saved from administration. It will generate energy from tidal currents on the sea bed. Tidal Energy Ltd claims the patented DeltaStream device will be Wales' first grid-connected freestanding tidal turbine..."

Photo credit: Tidal Energy LTD. "Seven-storey high generator has been built by Mustang Marine in Pembroke Dock."


This Car May Soon Be The World's First Street-Legal Vehicle Powered By The Sun. The Washington Post has the story - here's the intro: "Hayden Smith and his racing team are euphoric. They had spent the last weekend of July obliterating a world speed record that had stood for more than a quarter of a century. Once certified, the Sunswift eVe, built by students hailing from Australia’s University of New South Wales will reign as the fastest electric car to cover 500 kilometers (310 miles). More importantly, the achievement brings it one step closer towards becoming the world’s first street-legal solar-powered car..." (Image credit: "Meet the Sunswift eVe.")


Is A One-Way Journey (to Mars) Wrong? I can think of a number of people I'd love to send on a one-way journey to the Red Planet. I'll bet you could list a few people too. Let's start a petition. In the meantime a writer at the online community site, Mars One, explains why a few (crazy) folks might be inspired to take a one-way trip: "...Is a one-way mission insane? Here's how Mason Peck responded to the question: "There are many motivations for becoming one of the first settlers on Mars, none of them insane in my opinion. These include:

* A noble sense of self-sacrifice, in you believe that extending human presence into the solar system will help to ensure the survival of the species."

* A desire for the immortality that comes with fame, despite the risk to life and limb. In some sense, putting  yourself at risk helps ensure your influence on the history of humanity will outlive your physical being..."


83 F. high in the Twin Cities Thursday.

82 F. average high on August 7.

77 F. high on August 7, 2013.

August 7, 1930: A record high of 102 is set at Redwood Falls.


TODAY: Partly sunny, clouds & PM T-storms southwest MN. Winds: E 10. High: 82

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy metro, storms southwestern MN. Low: 64

SATURDAY: Hazy sun, T-storm possible late, especially west of MSP. Dew point: 60. Winds: SE 10. High: 82

SUNDAY: Warm sun, sticky. Storms north/west Minnesota. Wake-up: 66. High: 84

MONDAY: More numerous T-storms, locally heavy rain. Dew point: 66. Wake-up: 67. High: 79

TUESDAY: Sunnier, turning less humid. Dew point: 53. Wake-up: 61. High: 76

WEDNESDAY: Bright sun, light winds. Dew point: 48. Wake-up: 56. High: near 80

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, seasonably warm. Wake-up: 59. High: 80


Is a one-way mission insane? Here’s how Mason Peck responded to the question:

“There are many motivations for becoming one of the first settlers on Mars, none of them insane in my opinion. These include:

  • “A noble sense of self-sacrifice, if you believe that extending human presence into the solar system will help ensure the survival of the species."
  • “A desire for the immortality that comes with fame, despite the risk to life and limb. In some sense, putting yourself at risk helps ensure your influence on the history of humanity will outlive your physical being."
  • “A desire for personal accomplishment, or overcoming a challenge, the same sort of thing that drives people to join expeditions to the summit of Mount Everest."
- See more at: https://community.mars-one.com/blog/is-a-one-way-journey-wrong#sthash.8TpgtvHE.dpuf

Climate Stories...

For Most Of Us A Warmer World Has Become "The New Normal". Here's an excerpt of a story from Reuters and Huffington Post: "Global warming has been going on for so long that most people were not even born the last time the Earth was cooler than average in 1985 in a shift that is altering perceptions of a "normal" climate, scientists said. Decades of climate change bring risks that people will accept higher temperatures, with more heatwaves, downpours and droughts, as normal and complicate government plans to do more to cut emissions of greenhouse gas emissions. "Because the last three decades have seen such a significant rise in global and regional temperatures, most people under the age of 30 have not lived in a world without global warming," Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General of the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), told Reuters..."


NOAA: Ocean Acidification Rises, Marine Economy Sinks. Here's a clip from an article at EcoWatch: "...But a new study, funded by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), says growing acidification of Alaska’s waters, particularly those off the southern coast, threatens the state’s whole economy—largely dependent on the fishing industry. The study, which appears in the journal Progress in Oceanography, says that not only will the state’s commercial fishing sector be badly hit by a growth in acidification, but it will also affect subsistence fisherpeople whose diet mainly consists of the catch from local waters..."


What CEO's Are Starting To Do About That "Huge Gap" Obama Mentioned. Companies stated sustainability intentions vs. what they spend on D.C. corporate lobbyists to maintain the status quo are often at odds, according to this piece from Eric Roston at Bloomberg; here's a clip: "...A consultancy based in Stamford, Connecticut, called Framework LLC, in 2011 compared sustainability reports and corporate 10-K disclosures for the 100 top companies chosen annually by Corporate Responsibility Magazine. The study found that just eight companies had "a large degree" of overlap between 10-K and sustainability reports: Merck & Co., Campbell Soup Co., Intel Corp., Freeport-McMoran, Weyerhaeuser Co., Newmont Mining Corp, Xcel Energy and Coca-Cola Co. Twenty-eight companies had disclosures that raised "somewhat" similar topics and 60 had minimal overlap. Four didn't intersect at all..."


Climate Change Damages Europe's Forests. Climate News Network has the story - here's an excerpt: "...The authors show that damage caused by forest disturbance has increased continuously over the last 40 years in Europe, reaching 56 million cubic metres of timber annually in the years from 2002 to 2010. Analysis of scenarios for the decades ahead suggest this trend will continue, with the study estimating that forest disturbance will increase damage by another million cubic metres of timber every year over the next 20 years. The study says this increase is roughly equivalent to 7,000 football fields’ worth of timber. The authors say climate change is the main driver behind the increase. Forest disturbance did not increase much beyond present levels in their simulations while climate conditions remained stable..."

Photo credit above: "Forest fire damage such as this in Portugal is expected to increase." Image: Osvaldo Gago via Wikimedia Commons.

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