Paul Douglas on Weather Logo

Blog

Paul Douglas on Weather

Extended Intermission from Heat & Humidity - Cool Bias into 4th of July

A Cool and Showery Bias Into The 4th of July?

I just got back from Kansas City, where I gave a talk to America's TV meteorologists on climate messaging for conservatives; framing that highlights faith as well as science. Not sure it moved the needle, but I sense more traction with stewardship and Creation Care.

The increase in warm season rainfall is most pronounced in the Midwest and New England. Large hail MAY be on the increase, but it's unclear whether background warming has a role. Expanding suburbs means more expensive targets for severe weather to strike. Normalization of socioeconomic trends is an ongoing challenge.

I'm stalling because I really don't want to talk about weekend weather, or the 4th of July for that matter. A stubborn wrinkle of cold air aloft keeps us cool and showery this weekend with highs in the 60s. We warm up next week, but long-range models show another cooling trend in time for the 4th of July weekend. Upper 70s and low 80s for highs with spotty T-showers? We've seen worse.

Not exactly a postcard-perfect holiday but unlike Phoenix you won't burn the bottom of your feet walking the dog. Great news: no worries about heat stroke/sunburn anytime soon!


Photo credit: WCCO-TV meteorologist Mike Augustyniak. Thanks Mike!


Cool Bias Hangs On. No signs of sweltering heat spreading into Minnesota and Wisconsin, at least not looking out 2 weeks or so. A series of cool frontal passages will keep temperatures 5-10F cooler than average; highs mostly in the 70s through the period. Except for tomorrow and Sunday, when metro highs may not climb out of the 60s. ECMWF guidance: WeatherBell.


Tracking the Soggy Remains of Cindy. 12 km NAM guidance suggests the core of heaviest rain will track from Memphis to Louisville and Cincinnati today, possibly soaking Washington D.C. and Philadelphia with a few inches of rain by Saturday. A flush of Canadian air sparks instability showers from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and New England, while strong to severe storms sprout from the southern Plains into the southeastern USA. The west coast stays mostly dry, with sizzling heat lingering over the southwest. 84 hour Future Radar: NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.


Hot Air Expanding North Second Week of July? The worst of the heat wave continues to grip the southwestern USA, but GFS forecasts for 500 mb looking out roughly 2 weeks suggest that heat may spread into the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Remember that July is, historically, the hottest month of the year.


Sloppy Remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy. This (non-operational) GOES-16 visible loop (courtesy of the College of DuPage Nexlab, was taken yesterday during the early afternoon hours; a counterclockwise swirl of tropical moisture pushing flooding rains inito the Gulf Coast and Mid South.


Here is an excerpt of a Praedictix corporate briefing issued yesterday by meteorologist D.J. Kayser:

Heavy Rain Over The Past Few Days. Rainfall totals have already topped 8” in Gulfport, MS, and 9” in Pensacola, FL, over the past three days due to Cindy. This has caused flooding across the region, and any additional rain will only continue to prolong the issue.


Official Forecast Track. Steady weakening is expected throughout the day, with Cindy expected to become post-tropical tonight. The system will gradually make a turn northeast and accelerate over the next couple days, merging with a frontal system as we head into the weekend. Heavy rain that could cause significant flooding continues to be the main threat with Cindy. As of 7 AM CDT, a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA.


Additional Rain Potential. Additional heavy rain of 2-8” is expected over the next couple days on top of the 5-10” of rain that has already fallen along the northern Gulf Coast. This rain will only further increase the potential of flooding across the region, and could result in significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding with many streams and rivers leaving their banks. Meanwhile, heavy rain will continue to spread north into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as the remnants of Cindy moves across the region, bringing the potential of 1-4”+ of rain.


Flash Flood Watches Continue. Due to the heavy rain threat, Flash Flood Watches continue across the region - as far north as Tennessee and Missouri. Due to significant rain that has already fallen along the northern Gulf Coast, any additional rainfall continues to pose the threat of life-threatening flash flooding. Due to the prolonged nature of the rain, the flooding potential could exist for some time.


Flash Flood Potential. Some of the heaviest rain today will occur along and in front of the overall path of Cindy. These areas have the best potential of 3-5" of rain today, with isolated totals up to a foot. Due to this, life-threatening flash flooding could occur across parts of eastern Texas, western Louisiana and southern Arkansas, leading to a “high” risk of excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding from the Weather Prediction Center. The flooding threat will continue into Friday as the system continues north and northeast into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.


Meanwhile the southwestern USA continues to bake:


The Science Behind Arizona's Record-Setting Heat Wave. Here are a few nuggets from Pacific Standard that made me do a double-take: "In the Arizona desert, as far back as weather records go, it's never been this hot for this long. By early Monday afternoon, the temperature was 111 degrees in Tucson, the first in a forecasted series of a record-setting seven consecutive days with highs above 110, the longest streak in city history. (The previous record, should it fall, was six days in a row in 1994.)...

  • The United States Border Patrol stepped up safety messages, saying "it is physically impossible for the average person to carry enough water to survive."
  • The National Weather Service also warned against walking pets outdoors, saying that at pavement temperatures above 162 degrees (consistent with air temperatures of 102), skin is instantly destroyed.

Also on Monday, American Airlines canceled 38 flights previously scheduled for Phoenix on Tuesday—simply because it will be too hot to fly..."


Seriously Hot. Check out a Reddit photo taken on Wednesday in the greater Phoenix area, showing a surface temperature of 168F. Asphalt + 120 F air temperature = first and second degree burns. Imagine living in your oven. That's what much of the southwestern USA is enduring this week.


Hot Dog Booties? Every threat is an opportunity. Esquire has a photo essay that includes the picture above and a photo credit from Tempe, Arizona: "Since hot pavement can burn dogs' paws, Phoenix radio station KSLX handed out protective booties at a PetSmart in Tempe, Arizona."


Phoenix: Second-Fastest Warming City in the USA. Praedictix meteorologist Kristin Clark explains: "...In the U.S. Phoenix is the second-fastest warming city over the past 50 years. We are fortunate in the States to have access to cooling technologies. Yet the increasing frequency of heat waves will negatively impact health with more heat-related illnesses like heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Diseases could spread as insects thrive in newly warmed regions. More days with poor air quality will lead to asthma and poor respiratory health. Stresses on crops and worsening drought will impact agriculture. Elevated strains on the energy grid grow as demand for air conditioning increases. The use of energy increases as well as cooling costs. Hot how will it get at your house this week? Be sure to check the Praedictix local, regional and national forecast..."


New Tools To Help Visualize the Future of Drought. These new NOAA NCEI maps provide the perspective necessary to try and answer tough questions related to moisture. Here's an excerpt from the U.S. Drought Portal: "How much rain is it going to take for this drought to get better? What’s the likelihood that the drought will be over a month from now? If it doesn't rain again for the rest of the month, how bad could the drought get? Questions like these start creeping in when the landscape browns, when streams get low, when the sun starts baking our gardens. Californians were among those contemplating such things as drought intensified there from 2011 into this past winter. Folks in the Dakotas are asking those questions now. How bad can it get? There’s a tool that can help answer. Drought Termination and Amelioration pages from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) offer a customizable interface anyone can use to find information on..."

Map credit: "Based on the PHDI. PHDI is a primary measure of long-term drought but may not apply to all areas, including those with heavily managed surface water. No additional precipitation is needed for white areas. Values are in inches."




Warning System for Great Lakes Tsunamis Under Development. I had no idea - here's a clip from a fascinating article at MLive.com: "...Rapid changes in barometric pressure, often associated with fast-moving weather systems, can generate meteotsunamis. Although many meteotsunamis are too small to notice, large meteotsunamis can have devastating coastal impacts, including damaging waves, flooding and strong currents, that cause significant damage, injury and death. An average of 106 meteotsunamis are observed each year, according to the CIGRL. For example, in 2003 in Sawyer, seven people drowned in an incident initially attributed to rip currents, though the water level records indicated a moderate meteotsunami occurred around the time of the drownings..."

Photo credit: "A wave crashes over the pier at Pere Marquette Park in Muskegon Friday, Oct. 31, 2014." (Cory Morse | MLive.com).


Preparing for the Storm: Predicting Where Our Coasts Are At Risk. It's a complicated matrix of regular tidal forcings, sea level rise, land subsidence and storm-surge flooding, according to USGS: "...What Bandy needed was a model that accounted for waves breaking on the beach, for the shifting shape of the Outer Banks’ beaches and dunes, and how and where the interaction could cause coastal erosion. “That’s information the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] can provide,” said Hilary Stockdon, project lead for the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH). The USGS created a model that accurately predicts which areas of the beach are at risk to overwash or flooding from impending nor’easters and hurricanes. Combined with the offshore wave forecasts of the NWS, meteorologists like Bandy can now speak in specifics when warning officials and residents. The USGS created the model using more than a decade of carefully gathered data on how storms affect coastlines and by merging models of coastal waves and water levels with detailed mapping..."


The World's Most Catastrophic Floods, in Photos. The History Channel reviews some of the biggest killers on record, including the Great Johnstown Flood of 1889: "...The disaster began shortly after 3 p.m on May 31, 1889, when a dam on Pennsylvania’s Lake Conemaugh washed away following several days of drenching rain. The collapse unleashed some 16 million tons of water, which quickly turned into a 40-foot-high, half-mile-wide surge of mud and debris. An hour later, the wave struck Johnstown like a giant fist, crushing some 1,600 buildings and sweeping away everything in its path. When the waters finally receded, over 2,200 people were dead and many more were injured or homeless. The flood was later blamed on the poorly maintained dam, which was owned by a hunting and fishing club, but no one was ever held financially liable for the disaster..."


NOAA Data Helps Retail and Manufacturing Business Minimize Impacts from Weather and Climate. Here's an excerpt from NOAA NCEI: "...In the winter, in particular, the weather can dramatically influence economic activity related to the manufacturing and retail industries. A severe snowstorm may keep consumers from shopping at retail stores and dining at restaurants. And, winter weather can prevent goods from getting to market too. For example, when a major snowstorm caused a single-day shutdown in New York, it resulted in $152 million in lost sales (link is external). However, major snowstorms can be profitable for online retailers and the automotive repair industry. Since they account for $3.2 trillion or 17 percent of the U.S. GDP and an estimated 22 million jobs collectively, the performance of the manufacturing and retail industries is a top indicator of economic well-being. With the right data, manufacturers, retailers, and the companies that invest in them can understand and measure how weather is influencing their bottom lines and the country’s economy..."

File photo: Pixabay.com.


Senators Push Trump for Answers on Power Grid Malware Attack. Could one smart hacker sitting in his mother's basement on the other side of the world bring down the U.S. power grid? Here's a clip from a troubling story at WIRED.com: "In one of his first public statements on his priorities as president, Donald Trump promised to develop a "comprehensive plan to protect America's vital infrastructure from cyberattacks." That has not yet materialized. And as new evidence has emerged that a piece of sophisticated malware caused a blackout in the Ukrainian capital last December, one group of senators wants answers now about the threat of Russian grid-hacking. In a letter to the president Thursday, 19 senators have called on the White House to direct the Department of Energy to conduct a new analysis of the Russian government's capabilities to disrupt America's power grid..."


Fisticuffs Over The Route to a Clean-Energy Future. Could the U.S. economy run on entirely-renewable sources like wind, solar and hydro? Probably not with today's antiquated grid, reports The New York Times: "Could the entire American economy run on renewable energy alone? This may seem like an irrelevant question, given that both the White House and Congress are controlled by a party that rejects the scientific consensus abouut human-caused climate change. But the proposition that it could, long a dream of an environmental movement as wary of nuclear energy as it is of fossil fuels, has been gaining ground among policy makers committed to reducting the nation's carbon footprint. Democrats in both the United States Senate and in the California Assembly have proposed legislation this year calling for a full transition to renewable energy sources..."


Perry's Climate Change Comment "Flies in the Face of Science", Moniz Says. The Houston Chronicle reports: "Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said Wednesday he was "disappointed" by his successor Rick Perry's recent comments that mankind was not the primary cause of climate change. "It flies in the face of science," he said. "But I had been encouraged by Secretary Perry's strong enthusiasm for the national labs and the innovation agenda. However there, the problem is the disconnect to the budget prepared by the administration." The comments came while Moniz was in Washington to announce the launch of a new nonprofit that he will lead. The Energy Futures Initiative will provide technical expertise and analysis on reducing carbon dioxide emissions to fight climate change..."


Rapid Nuclear Decommissioning Threatens Climate Targets, Says IEA. Reuters has the story: "Decommissioning nuclear plants in Europe and North America from 2020 threatens global plans to cut carbon emissions unless governments build new nuclear plants or expand the use of renewables, a top International Energy Agency official said. Nuclear is now the largest low-carbon power source in Europe and the United States, about three times bigger than wind and solar combined, according to IEA data. But most reactors were built in the 1970s and early 80s, and will reach the end of their life around 2020. With the average nuclear plant running for 8,000 hours a year versus 1,500-2,000 hours for a solar plant, governments must expand renewable investments to replace old nuclear plants if they are to meet decarbonisation targets, IEA Chief Economist Laszlo Varro told Reuters..."

File photo: NRC.


New Solar Paint Could Offer Endless Supply of Clean Energy. This is the kind of potential breakthrough we're going to need to power up world economies without harmful pollution or greenhouse gas emissions. Fusion reports: "Researchers at RMIT University in Australia have developed a solar paint that could offer endless supplies of clean energy. The paint captures water vapor from the surrounding air, and then uses energy provided by the sunlight to split the water into hydrogen and oxygen. Once harvested, the resulting hydrogen could power fuel cells (which can provide electric power) or go directly into powering combustion engines..."

Photo credit: Pixabay.


Obesity Now Kills More People Worldwide Than Car Crashes, Terror Attacks and Alzheimer's Combined. Vox has the discouraging trends: "...Since 1980, the obesity prevalence has doubled in more than 70 countries around the world — mainly in low- and middle-income regions — and it has steadily increased in nearly every other country. The study is the largest systematic analysis of obesity data ever done, with researchers combing the medical literature and crunching thousands of data sets on obesity in adults and children covering 195 countries. Here are their 5 most important takeaways A lack of exercise and too many calories have been depicted as equal causes of the obesity crisis. But they shouldn’t be, the NEJM authors said..."

Graphic credit: Javier Zarracina/Vox.


Stephen Hawking Calls for a Return to the Moon as Earth's Clock Runs Out. So don't sweat the thundershowers! Here's an excerpt from The Washington Post: "Humans are overdue for a return trip to the moon, Stephen Hawking has just opined. Speaking on Tuesday at the Starmus Festival, a science-slash-musical gathering, the astrophysicist offered two parts doom cut with one part scientific optimism. He argued that we should prepare for a cosmic exodus to take place in the next 200 to 500 years. “We are running out of space, and the only place we can go to are other worlds. It is time to explore other solar systems,” he said via video link to the audience gathered in Trondheim, Norway. “Spreading out may be the only thing that saves us from ourselves. I am convinced that humans need to leave Earth...”

Photo credit: "Stephen Hawking on a New York stage during the announcement of the Breakthrough Starshot initiative in April 2016." (Lucas Jackson/Reuters).


Alabama Warns of Floating Fire Ants in Flood Waters. Just when you thought it couldn't get much worse comes a story at AP and WMUR.com: "Floating colonies of fire ants could form in flood waters as Tropical Storm Cindy trudges inland. That's the warning from Alabama state officials, who say the insects known as red imported fire ants can present a potentially serious health threat to people and animals during severe flooding. The Alabama Cooperative Extension System said in a statement that the floating colonies may look like ribbons, streamers or a large ball of ants floating on the water..."


.49" rain fell in the Twin Cities yesterday.

72 F. Thursday high temperature.

81 F. average Twin Cities high on June 22.

83 F. high on June 22, 2016.

June 23, 2002: Just a few weeks after torrential rains hit the area, another round of heavy rain hits northern Minnesota. This time up to eight inches would fall in a two-day period in parts of Mahnomen and St. Louis Counties.



TODAY: Mild sun, PM shower possible. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 71

FRIDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds - what June? Low: 53

SATURDAY: Morning sun, PM clouds, showers. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 66

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, PM shower up north. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 52. High: 65

MONDAY: Sunny, free A/C continues. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 50. High: 69

TUESDAY: Sunny and milder. Feels like June. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 55. High: 79

WEDNESDAY: Humid, heavy showers, T-storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 59. High: 77

THURSDAY: Sunnier, drier - better lake day. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 62. High: 82


Climate Stories....

Exxon, BP and Shell Back Carbon Tax Proposal to Cut Emissions. Ironic that the oil majors around the world are coming around and addressing the elephant in the living room, but the administration is still advocating ambitious environmental policy right out of the 1950s. Here's an excerpt from The Guardian: "Oil giants ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and Total are among a group of large corporations supporting a plan to tax carbon dioxide emissions in order to address climate change. The companies have revealed their support for the Climate Leadership Council, a group of senior Republican figures that in February proposed a $40 fee on each ton of CO2 emitted as part of a “free-market, limited government” response to climate change. The fossil fuel companies announced their backing for the plan alongside other major firms including Unilever, PepsiCo, General Motors and Johnson & Johnson..."

Photo credit: "Under the proposal, a $40 carbon tax, rising over time, would be levied on emissions in order to encourage a shift towards renewable energy sources such as solar and wind." Photograph: Franck Robichon/EPA.



Head of the American Meteorological Society to Secretary of Energy: You're Dead Wrong on Climate. Meteorologist Dan Satterfield has a post at AGU Blogosphere: "There is just no doubt anymore that the warming of the last century is due to rising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Yes, there are a ton of myths out there but no one who understands the basic science has any doubt. Even the latest surveys show that among those in the field the agreement is over 99%. So, when the Secretary of Energy goes on TV and says things that are preposterous, someone should correct him. Keith Seitter, the Exec. Director of the American Meteorological Society, has done just that..."

Image credit: "It’s the math. I’m quite sure that atmospheric scientists will be happy to explain this graphic to Secretary Perry." From the IPCC 2013.

'Refreshing' weather ahead. Warmer by the 4th

Stormy Wednesday Evening in Western MN

Thanks to Jakki Meyers for passing this picture along from Harry Samuelson, who was at baseball practice yesterday in Breckenridge, MN when this ominous cloud passed overhead. This particular storm was responsible for spawning a tornado that touched down multiple times near Foxhome, MN in Wilkin county.


Severe Threat Moves South Thursday

Here's the severe threat for Thursday, which shows the best potential of strong to severe storms sliding south into Iowa and Wisconsin. However, there still could be a few isolated strong storms across far southern MN.

Storms Push Through Southern MN Today

Here's the weather outlook through late Thursday evening, which shows ongiong showers and storms pushing through the region. Note that some of these storms could be strong to severe, mainly in far southern MN.

Extended Rainfall Forecast

Here's the extended rainfall forecast through Saturday, which suggests nearly 0.50" to 0.75" rain across southeastern MN, while 0.25" to 0.50" maybe possible across the Twin Cities. Of course, this will be dependent upon where thunderstorms develop. 

________________________________________________________________________

Tropical Storm Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico

Take a look at the new GOES 16 visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm Cindy from early Wednesday. Although Cindy didn't/doesn't look all that impressive from the satellite prospective, heavy rain is really the most concerning part of this system. With as much as 10" to 15" of total rainfall possibly falling in some locations across the Gulf Coast States, this could create life-threatening flooding in some locations. Note that we're not even a full month into the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season and we've already had 3 named storms develop in the basin.

Tropical Trouble in the Gulf of Mexico

Here's the forecast as Cindy moves inland through the end of the week. Note that the system looks a little more organized on Thursday, but as it moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valley it will quickly fall apart. Regardless of its strength, heavy rainfall will still be possible over the next few days.

Tracking Tropical Storm Cindy

According to NOAA's NHC, the track of this storm will likely make landfall somewhere along the Texas/Louisiana coastline late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as Tropical Storm Cindy. Tropical Storm Force winds could create high seas and minor wind damage as it nears the coast, but heavy rainfall and flooding is still expected to be the major concern over the next few days.

 
Panama City Beach, FL

Take a look what Panama City Beach, FL looked like on Wednesday as bands of heavy rain moved through the region. At this time, Bay county was under a flash flood warning, which included Panama City Beach, FL where 2" to 3" of rain had already fallen and another 1" to 2" was expected to fall through the morning.

 

Heavy Rain Reports

Here's a quick look at how much rain has fallen across parts of the Panhandle of Florida since Tropical Storm Cindy moved into the region. Note that many locations have already seen more than 2" with more than 7" already falling in at the Pensacola Airport.

Flash Flood Watches Continue

The National Weather Service continues Flash Flood Watches across a wide from eastern Texas to Georgia, where heavy rainfall could lead to additional flash flooding through the end of the week. With many spots already seeing significant rainfall and more significant rainfall on the way, flash flooding will be the most serious part of this entire system.

 
Flood Concerns Thursday & Friday
 
According to NOAA, excessive rainfall will be possible through the end of the week across the Southern US. In fact, there are moderate chances of excessive rainfall on Thursday across the Gulf Coast States where significant rainfall is possible, which a slight risk of excessive rainfall has been issued across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley.
 


 
Heavy Rain Concerns

Flash Flood Watches have been posted by the National Weather Service across a wide area from Louisiana to Florida and Georgia. As deep tropical moisture soaks the region, widespread flooding can't be ruled out. Some of the latest forecast suggest that more than 10" of rain may be possible in spots through the weekend!


________________________________________________________

"It’s so hot in Phoenix that airplanes can’t fly"

"There are certain truths that accompany summer in Phoenix: Triple-digit temperatures persist well past sundown. It’s not considered abnormal to drive with oven mitts or ice packs in the car. And after a certain threshold, even the “it’s a dry heat” jokes cease being funny. Usually, the hot season is met with a certain amount of pearl-clutching disbelief by people outside of Arizona. Meanwhile, locals shrug, knowing simply to stay indoors as much as possible or escape to the cooler climes of Northern Arizona. But this week has felt different, even for seasoned desert-dwellers. As the Capital Weather Gang reported, the Southwest is experiencing its worst heat wave in decades. Excessive heat warnings have been in effect from Arizona to California and will be for the remainder of the week. How hot has it been? On Monday, temperatures in Phoenix hit 118 degrees, according to the National Weather Service, which announced the record-tying heat against a stock image of a flaming ball of fire."

See more from WashingtonPost HERE:

(With temperatures likely to reach triple digits in Phoenix, American Airlines on June 20 cancelled dozens of inbound and outbound flights.(Reuters))

Extreme & Record Heat in Phoenix, AZ

Phoenix, AZ has been host to extremely hot temperatures over the last few days, where on Monday, June 19th, they tied a record high temperature of 118F set in 2016 that day. They also had a record high of 119F on Tuesday, June 20th, which is the 4th hottest temperature ever recorded in that city! WOW! Yuma, AZ also reached 120F on Tuesday, June 20th, which is also the 4th hottest temperature ever recorded in that cities history... that's some serious heat!


 
Extended Forecast for Phoenix, AZ
 
While the extended forecast still calls for extremely hot temperatures, it does appear that the worst may be behind us. Don't let your guard down though, high temps around 115F is nothing to sneeze at!
 

Death Valley, CA

While temperatures look to fall below 110F by early next week in Phoenix, AZ, readings in Death Valley, CA could still be up around an incredible 120F through the weekend! WOW!

"Tourists descend as temperatures climb in Death Valley"

"LAS VEGAS (AP) — Desert dwellers in the western U.S. see temperatures topping 120 degrees (49 Celsius) as a reason to hunker down indoors and turn up the air conditioning. But some tourists welcome it as a bucket-list opportunity to experience Death Valley — famously the hottest place in America. Many will get their chance in the days ahead as a vicious heatwave bakes parts of Arizona, California and Nevada. The mercury at Death Valley National Park reached 124 degrees (51 Celsius) on Sunday, and temperatures are expected to keep climbing through midweek as a dry, high-pressure system lingers over much of the Southwest. Many places saw triple-digit temperatures on Sunday, and the heatwave was blamed for power outages in several areas in California. "There's very few places on Earth to go to experience those temperatures, and Death Valley is one of those," said John Adair, a National Weather Service meteorologist."

See more from WJLA.com HERE:

(FILE - In this June 16, 2017, file photo, a man runs through section of South Mountain Park at sunrise to avoid the excessive heat in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York, File))

 

Extreme Heat Continues in the Southwest

The National Weather Service continues Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories across a large part of the Southwest through midweek. In some cases, temperatures could be as hot as 120F+, especially for the desert locations including Death Valley, CA.

Heat is the #1 Weather Related Killer in the U.S.

"Nationwide, heat is the #1 weather-related killer. Stay inside in a cool ventilated place whenever possible. Restrict outdoor work or exercise to early morning or nighttime. If outside, drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks. Frequently check on the young, elderly, and those with health conditions. Never leave children or pets in a car unattended."

Thursday: High Temperatures - Highs Above Average - Forecast Records

It'll be another hot day in the Southwest on Thursday with temperatures still nearly 10F to near 20F above average. With readings in the 90s & 100s once again, more daily record high temperatures could fall.



Friday: High Temperatures - Highs Above Average - Forecast Records



___________________________________________________

"When it comes to Southern California's heat wave, the worst is yet to come"

"Fiirefighters labored in scorching heat Sunday against five separate brush fires across Southern California as forecasters warned of more triple-digit temperatures in inland communities. The punishing heat wave broke records on Sunday in Lancaster, Palmdale and Sandberg, which saw highs of 108, 108 and 99 degrees, respectively. With a dry, high-pressure system parked over the Southwest, temperatures are expected to keep climbing through midweek, according to the National Weather Service."

See more from LATimes HERE:

(A brush fire near Castaic Lake burned 1,000 acres over the weekend and was only 10% contained as of Sunday afternoon. (Francine Orr / Los Angeles Times))

_____________________________________________________

Weather Outlook

As we take a look at the national forecast, the main concern over the next few days will continue to be the tropical system moving into the Southern US over the next couple of days. Significant and potentially life-threatening flooding will be possible in some locations. Meanwhile dangerous heat continues in the Southwest with more record heat possible through the week.

_________________________________________________________________

PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count

According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1052 (through June 20). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were nearly 1,500 tornadoes. Keep in mind there was a major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast region from April 25-28, 2011 that spawned nearly 500 tornadoes, some of which were deadly. That outbreak is known as the Super Outbreak of 2011 and has gone down in history as one of the biggest, costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history.

 

________________________________________________________________________

'Refreshing' weather ahead. Warmer by the 4th
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

It's not too often that I can forecast well below average temperatures and get away with it. That kind of forecast in January would call for face-numbing wind chills and lots of angry tweets. In June... well, it's not too bad. Kind of refreshing, no?

With high temperatures struggling to get to 70 degrees in many locations this weekend, it may not be as lake-worthy as you'd hoped, but low humidity and a fresh breeze will make this weekend feel pretty pleasant. A few t-showers may chase you inside Saturday afternoon, but it could be worse!

Tropical Storm Cindy is expected to bring life-threatening flash flooding along the Gulf Coast States through the end of the week before weakening in the Eastern U.S. this weekend. Cindy became the 3rd named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is forecast to be slightly above average this season.

Lingering showers and storms work through southern Minnesota today before more sun returns Friday. Hot & sticky weather will resume in July, it always does.

Hey, it's summer in Minnesota!
______________________________________________________

Extended Forecast

THURSDAY: Some sun. Lingering T-shower, mainly southern MN. Winds: NNW 5-10. High: 76.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Lingering thundershower early, then clearing later. Winds: W 5. Low: 56

FRIDAY: Refreshing. Sun and cloud mix. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 73

SATURDAY: Chilly for June. A few PM showers. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 54. High: 69

SUNDAY: Still cool. Stray afternoon rumble. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 54. High: 72

MONDAY: More sun. Pleasant. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 56. High: 74

TUESDAY: Warming temps. Late day rumble? Winds: SSE 5-15. Wake-up: 59. High: 78.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers and storms. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High 81.
_______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
June 22nd

1988: Smoke fills the sky across much of Minnesota due to wild fires during the '88 drought.

1919: The 2nd deadliest tornado in Minnesota history hits Fergus Falls, killing 59 people. Like the #1 killer tornado for Minnesota (73 fatalities in St. Cloud and Sauk Rapids on 4/14/1886), it struck on a weekend.

1917: Grand Meadow has an intense downpour, and 4.98 inches of rain on this date. Corn crops are badly damaged by the heavy rain/flooding.
________________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 22nd

Average High: 81F (Record: 98F set in 1911)
Average Low: 61F (Record: 42F set in 1960)

Record Rainfall: 2.12" set in 1930
_________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 22nd

Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 9:03pm

Hours of Daylight: 15hours & 36mins & 43 seconds

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): 5 seconds
__________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for June 21st at Midnight
1.8 Days Before New Moon

  

_____________________________________________________________

Weather Outlook for Thursday

Winds will be fairly light across the region on Thursday, but could be a little gusty if any thunderstorms move in. Winds will also turn out of a more westerly direction through the day, which will help to draw in much cooler air for the upcoming weekend.

 Weather Outlook for Thursday

Lingering showers and storms will be possible across the region on Thursday. Note that the best chance of more organized thunderstorms will be possible across southern MN through the day, while the strong to severe thunderstorm potential will slide farther south into Iowa and Wisconsin.

 __________________________________________________________________________

Weather Outlook For Thursday

High temperatures on Thursday will begin cooling down in the wake of the front that brought us a few strong storms across the region late Wednesday. Note most locations will be in the 70s, which will be nearly 5F below average.


UV Index for Thursday - HIGH

The UV Index will be considered HIGH across much of the state of Minnesota on Thursday, which means that it will only 20 to 30 minutes or less to burn unprotected skin. With that said, if you are planning on spending any extended length of time outside, make sure you wear appropriate attire and lather on the sun block!


_____________________________________________________________

Weather Outlook for Friday

Friday will be even cooler with highs across the northern half of the state not even warming into the 70s. The southern half of the state will be able to warm into the lower 70s, but this will still be nearly 10F below average. The forecast into the weekend calls for similar if not even slightly cooler readings. The Twin Cities might even have a hard time reaching 70F!

 

UV Index for Friday - HIGH

The UV Index will be considered HIGH across much of the state of Minnesota on Thursday, which means that it will only 20 to 30 minutes or less to burn unprotected skin. With that said, if you are planning on spending any extended length of time outside, make sure you wear appropriate attire and lather on the sun block!

"Overlooking This Tiny Detail on a Sunscreen Bottle Causes Major Skin Burns"

"It's 2017, and by now, we're well aware of the risks of tanning. We know to apply sunscreen every two hours, we know to put it on for all outdoor activities, and we know how important it is to apply even when it's cloudy. But what about expired sunscreen? What happens if we're following all the sun protection rules, but still manage to get a horrible sunburn because of an old bottle of sunscreen? I fell victim to a sunscreen expiration date, and now, it's the first thing I check before applying SPF."

See more from Popsugar HERE:

_____________________________________________________________________________

Temperature Outlook

Here's the temperature outlook from 2 different models through into the early part of July. After a slight warm up back to near 80F on Wednesday & Thursday, the weekend looks quite chilly with highs that may struggle to get to 70F! After the brief weekend cool snap, temperatures look to steadily warm as we approach the the start of July. There are some indications that it could be hot & sticky around the 4th of July, but it's a little too early to tell. Stay tuned!

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook through June 30th suggests much cooler than average temperatures across the entire region. After a very warm start to the month, temperatures looks to remain cool as we end the month. As of June 19th, the Twin Cities was still running nearly 7F above average for the month, but with continued cooler temperatures, we'll see how June ends.


___________________________________________________________

Extended Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook through June 30th shows much cooler than average temperatures across a good chunk of the central US and into the Northeast. Warmer than average temperatures look to continue across the Western third of the nation and across Florida.

____________________________________________________________

Temperature Trend

Here's the temperature trend through the end of the month, which shows cool exhaust from Canada continuing to settle south of the border over the next several days. The coolest batch of Canadian air may come in waves; one chunk over the upcoming weekend with another smaller batch moving into the Midwest/Great Lakes by the early/middle part of next week. Meanwhile, the Western US looks to remain quite hot through the end of the month.

 

Weather Outlook This Week

The weather outlook over the next couple of days shows the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico moving north into the Lower Mississippi Valley with gusty winds and significant rain and flooding potential. Meanwhile, scattered storms breakout across the Central US, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rains. 

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the next several days could produce areas of locally heavy rainfall across the South US where some 6" to 10"+ rainfall tallies can't be ruled out. Note that some of this tropical moisture may lift northeast into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley through the upcoming weekend, which could also lead to areas of flooding. Another batch of heavier rain could fall across the Midwest and Great Lakes Region, which would be associated with scattered to spotty severe storms through the end of the week.

____________________________________________________________________

"NASA wants to probe Uranus in search of gas"

"We hear a lot about Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn, and that’s because we have extremely fancy hardware floating around and, in some cases, cruising on the surface of those planets. The planets that lie further away from the Sun don’t get nearly as much attention, but they may soon, as NASA is currently spitballing some missions that will give us a better look at Uranus than we’ve ever gotten. The theoretical missions, which would see NASA spacecraft heading to both Uranus and Neptune, would be of huge scientific benefit. The idea is to determine what the planets are made of, get an idea of the atmospheric composition, and take lots of fantastic photographs, too. Researchers hope to study the weather and overall climate of the planets, while determining how they fit into the overall makeup of our Solar System."

See more from Yahoo HERE:


____________________________________________________

"How to avoid clouds that could spoil the Great American Eclipse"

"You’ll hear it again and again. The Aug. 21 total solar eclipse is a once in a lifetime celestial event, and a mind-blowing experience awaits those who witness it. It is being called the “Great American Eclipse;” the last comparable event occurred 99 years ago. But, depending where you go, clouds could play spoiler. Inevitably, some people who spend hundreds or even thousands of dollars to travel to view the spectacle could have their experience completely ruined by overcast skies. Fortunately, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has developed a website that provides detailed information about which locations have the best chance of skies clear enough to view the eclipse."

See more from WashingtonPost HERE:

(A total solar eclipse in Belitung, Indonesia, on March 9, 2016. (AP))


___________________________________________________________

"Measuring the snowpack goes high-tech with airborne lasers and radar"

"Every year for almost half a century, California snow surveyor Pat Armstrong has trekked the rugged Sierra Nevada with three simple tools: a snow core tube, a scale and a notebook. For as long as he can remember, state water officials have relied on the accuracy of those tools to deliver crucial data on the size of the Sierra snowpack and its ability to sustain a growing population. “It hasn’t changed in a hundred years,” Armstrong said of the survey. But there is a growing belief that this low-tech process alone is becoming too unreliable to accurately manage California’s water needs. A warming climate, experts and officials argue, has ushered in a new age of unpredictable rainy seasons and caused the Sierra snowpack — the state’s largest naturally occurring reservoir — to melt faster than ever before. Knowing how much snow is available is essential to maintaining California’s water supply and minimizing flooding when the snow melts.

See more from LATimes HERE:

(Researchers with NASA's SnowEx project at a study site at Island Lake in the San Juan Mountains in Colorado on Feb. 15. (NASA Hydrological Sciences))


___________________________________________________________________

"This is why your car thermometer is almost always wrong"

"Few industries integrate technology into their products faster than do automobile companies. One of those features, now ubiquitous in most cars, is the dashboard thermometer display. But the temperature reading on your vehicle’s dashboard is often misleading and not representative of the actual temperature. In its most basic definition, temperature is a measurement of how fast gas molecules are moving or its average kinetic energy. Heat excites molecules, causing them to bounce around much more frequently, resulting in a higher temperature value. The most common way to measure this reaction is with a mercury thermometer, where the liquid mercury will physically expand and rise to a particular value when heat is added. Your car is equipped not with a thermometer but with a thermistor. Thermistors work in a similar manner to thermometers, but rather than using a liquid like mercury, thermistors measure the change in electrical current as a result of heat added or taken away. Thermistors are quite convenient, since they are small, cheap to make and for the most part, accurate. And really, the problem is not that your car uses a thermistor but rather where that thermistor is placed."

See more from WashingtonPost HERE:

(image credit: WashingtonPost)


________________________________________________________________

"Incredible image shows International Space Station passing in front of the sun"

"This incredible composite image, showing the International Space Station's transit past the sun, was taken at Csakanyhaza in Slovakia, close to the Hungarian border and around 150km north-east of Budapest. The ISSN took one second to pass across the sun - and the picture above is made from 11 separate exposures taken at regular split-second intervals."

See more from Telegraph.co.uk HERE:

(This combination photo shows the International Space Station as it flies in front of the sun CREDIT: EPA/PETER KOMKA HUNGARY OUT)

"Weather system revamp hopes to bring sunshine to US economy"

"New legislation requires NOAA to improve weather research and forecasting, boosting industries from farming and airlines and improving the public warning system"

"Farmers have been obsessed with weather for thousands of years. Ancient Greeks and Babylonians sought guidance on planting and harvest by surveying the sky for patterns in clouds and stars and by communing with gods – through prayers and animal sacrifices. Modern-day farmers, such as Steve Pitstick, a fifth-generation farmer in Illinois, count on sophisticated instruments for predicting the weather instead. During the planting season, Pitstick says, he checks the weather forecast three or four times a day. Too much rain means he can’t plant because the heavy machinery will compact the wet soil, smothering the seeds; too little and the seeds won’t germinate. “Weather is huge in our business. We use the forecast during planting season to get a sense of what we’re doing and to know the level of urgency to get the crops planted,” says Pitstick, who grows corn and soybeans. Weather is big business in many other industries, too, and an ambitious plan is underway to revamp the country’s weather forecast system. It’s the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, the first major weather legislation that Congress has passed since the early 1990s."

See more from the Guardian HERE:

_______________________________________________________________

"The U.S. Hit a Wind and Solar Power Milestone in March"

"Ten percent of all of the electricity generated in the U.S. in March came from wind and solar power, marking the first such milestone in U.S. history, according to a new U.S. Energy Information Administration report. The EIA estimates that wind and solar farms likely generated 10 percent of America’s electricity in April as well, which would be another first, according to the report. This year’s milestone shows that renewables are becoming a major source of electricity in the U.S. and can no longer be considered “alternative” energy, said Christopher Clack, CEO of the power grid modeling firm Vibrant Clean Energy and a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration researcher. The report’s findings represent a marked increased from March 2016, when wind and solar generated 8.6 percent of total U.S. electricity. Overall, about 7 percent of U.S. electricity comes from wind and solar annually, up from less than 1 percent a decade ago. Texas is the country’s biggest wind power producer and California is the largest solar producer."

See more from Climate Central HERE:

(The Los Vientos wind farm in Texas. Credit: Duke Energy/flickr)


_______________________________________________________

"IS IT SO BAD IF THE WORLD GETS A LITTLE HOTTER? UH, YEAH"

"MANY OF US share some dim apprehension that the world is flying out of control, that the center cannot hold. Raging wildfires, once-in-1,000-year storms, and lethal heat waves have become fixtures of the evening news—and all this after the planet has warmed by less than 1 degree Celsius above preindustrial temperatures. But here’s where it gets really scary. If humanity burns through all its fossil fuel reserves, there is the potential to warm the planet by perhaps more than 10 degrees Celsius and raise sea levels by hundreds of feet. This is a warming spike comparable in magnitude to that so far measured for the End-Permian mass extinction. If the worst-case scenarios come to pass, today’s modestly menacing ocean-climate system will seem quaint. Even warming to half of that amount would create a planet that would have nothing to do with the one on which humans evolved, or on which civilization has been built. The last time it was 4 degrees warmer there was no ice at either pole and sea level was hundreds of feet higher than it is today."

See more from WIRED HERE:

(Image Credit: GETTY IMAGES via Wired)


_______________________________________________________

"Unusual weather in Antarctica leads to rain and a Texas-sized melt"

"An area larger than the state of Texas in West Antarctica melted to an unusual degree last year, with pools of the meltwater remaining on the surface for as long as 15 days. That’s trouble, since meltwater can accelerate the thawing already occurring from warming ocean temperatures. West Antarctica alone could contribute 10 feet of sea level rise, according to a 2009 paper published in Science. This area in the Ross Ice Shelf, the world’s largest chunk of floating ice, likely melted at its surface because of a particularly strong 2015–2016 El Niño event, which brought warm and moist sea air to the area, according to the study published today in Nature Communications. El Niños have caused melting atop the Ross Ice Shelf before, but this time it lasted unusually long, according to the paper. It appears it also rained on the ice shelf and other parts of West Antarctica. That could made it easier for the snow surface to melt."

See more from The Verge HERE:

(Image Credit: NOAA)

 _______________________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX