Snapshot across the nation
It's all about the record head for the southwest as they sweat back to work. Temperatures should top close to or above 100 degrees from Los Angeles to Phoenix. Much of southern California, including LA will be under an Excessive Heat Warning Monday through Tuesday. Gross and dangerous!
On top of that, The SW will be sweltering in the oven for another reason. Dry and breezy weather will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions (again) for most of the week ahead there. Gusty Santa Ana winds will be a concern for southern California through at least Tuesday.
The eastern half of the lower 48 will have completely different problems to face... A fairly strong cold front will continue to race across the eastern third of the good ol' US of A. As things stand at the moment... there is a MARGINAL RISK (dark green) of severe thunderstorms from Savanna to Washington DC on Monday. Quite a few storms may 'show off' and drop a possibility of damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon into Monday night for the mid-Atlantic states (pictured below).
The MARGINAL RISK moves east to New England on Tuesday. New York City and Boston will be on the lookout for the potential of some damaging wind gusts (pictured below).
How Minnesota's Climate is Changing
1. The state is getting warmer and wetter
Annual average precipitation is projected to increase by mid-century, with increases most likely occurring in the winter and spring - Source.
2. More on that warmth... It's re-writing the record books
Minnesota has recently experienced 10 of its top 20 warmest years on record dating back to 1895 (image below credit: The Weather Channel). Two of the state’s top five warmest years have happened in the last five years. This is going by average temperature for the state per year.
This warming has been concentrated in the winter while summers have not warmed much. The summer warming has been mostly an increase in nighttime temperatures, with the coolest nights of summer becoming warmer.
3. Bless You! Longer Allergy Seasons
Ragweed season in Minneapolis has grown 21 days longer since 1995 because the season’s first frost arrives later. Poor air quality days could also become more numerous due to hotter temperatures. The risk of some diseases carried by insects may also increase (source EPA). Always check for ticks!
Changing the climate is likely to have both positive and negative effects here. Warmer weather has extended the growing season by about 15 days since the beginning of the 20th century.
Longer frost-free growing seasons and higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide would increase yields of soybeans and wheat during an average year. But increasingly hot summers may reduce yields of corn. More severe droughts or floods would also hurt crop yields (source EPA).
5. Lakes Aren't staying frozen as long...
Ice cover on Minnesota’s lakes is building later than usual and melting sooner in spring. The length of time snow covers the ground may also dwindle with warmer winters. Central Minnesota’s Lake Osakis date of ice out in spring has been trending sooner and sooner since 1867. Three of the top five earliest ice out dates have occurred since 2000 (image credit: https://statesummaries.ncics.org/mn).
Back To Work And School... Forecast This Week
October is winding down on the calendar... and the 7-day is really showing that! We got some chilly things happening in the days ahead.
Monday brings a possibility of scattered and stray sprinkles and light showers. A NW breeze drops in from Canada later in the day... this will bring us a fall-time cool-down early in the week.
Tuesday looks cloudy in the morning... sunny in the afternoon. But chilly and windy. Highs only manage 40s as a result. Sweaters and fall jackets are definitely a stylish recommendation.
Wednesday looks fine. We're in between weather-makers. Sunny and mid 50s. Then heaters at the ready! Yes, we are watching for a chance of rain and snow showers Thursday into Friday morning with a chilly weather-maker. But it's still just that... a chance. I'll leave it at that. Also, ignore that sunny and 32 on Sunday... that's likely wrong.
Have a great day!
– Meteorologist Joe Hansel