RandBall: Mulling the Vikings' playoff opponents - and rethinking the Sam Darnold question

In a normal year not that long ago, the Vikings would have a very good chance at earning a first-round bye in the NFL playoffs. Two things have changed that likelihood from “very good” to “very slim.”

First, the NFL changed the postseason format in late March 2020 (yes, somehow this was on their minds during the early stages of COVID) to expand to seven playoff teams in each conference. The new format awarded a bye to just the No. 1 seed in each conference, while the No. 2 faced the No. 7 seed in the wild-card round. Previously, the top two seeds got byes with 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5 matchups in the first round.

Second, the Detroit Lions suddenly decided after more than 65 years of utter futility to become one of the NFL’s model franchises and best teams.

So here are the Vikings, in the midst of a wholly surprising and entertaining 11-2 season, staring up at the 12-1 Lions. And if they manage to catch Detroit to win the division, which the New York Times says is a 10% chance given Detroit’s strength in tiebreakers, they are still staring sideways at 11-2 Philadelphia.

In most years of your football-watching lifetime, the Vikings would have had a much easier potential path to a Super Bowl — needing just two wins after a bye, with at least one game and possibly both at home. Instead, they are probably headed for a wild-card berth and the prospect of needing to win three road games to reach the big one — something Ben Goessling and I talked about on Friday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

You can also watch our segment on YouTube.

That reality leads to two thoughts, which we also discussed on the podcast.

First: If the Vikings do wind up as a wild card, likely the No. 5 seed but possibly No. 6 if they slip under Green Bay, they will almost certainly face either the winner of the NFC West or NFC South in the opening round. The four strongest contenders there are the Buccaneers and Falcons in the South or the Rams and Seahawks in the West.

None of those teams would be a walkover, particularly since they would have the home-field advantage, but let’s say the Vikings would probably prefer not to play the Rams (a proven team that already beat them once this season) or Tampa Bay (strong interior pass rush and underlying stats that suggest they are better than their 7-6 record). Seattle and Atlanta would be more preferred opponents, though we might have a different opinion of the Seahawks after the Vikings play in Seattle a couple weeks from now.

Second: Some of the narrative around the “Hey, should the Vikings be thinking about keeping Sam Darnold beyond this season?” conversation has hinged on how far he takes them in the playoffs. I’ve even fallen into that trap.

But to a certain degree, that is beyond his control. Sure, his play will dictate some of it. The Vikings’ path, though, will have a much greater impact. Two home games (as the No. 1 seed) vs. three road games is a completely different conversation (and part of the reason Detroit is given a 21% chance of winning the Super Bowl compared with 5% for the Vikings).

I get that winning the first Super Bowl in franchise history would be a significant reason to re-sign Darnold, but the particular circumstances of this season make that more difficult. Ultimately, he should be judged on his performance and relative cost far more than the question of whether or not the Vikings made a playoff run.