LaVine's negative impact on Wolves' win-loss record when he's playing is puzzling

March 16, 2017 at 12:40AM
Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) celebrates a basket with Minnesota Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine (8) in the first half. ] ANTHONY SOUFFLE • anthony.souffle@startribune.com The Minnesota Timberwolves played the Houston Rockets during an NBA game Saturday, Dec. 17, 2016 at the Target Center in Minneapolis. ORG XMIT: MIN1612172025002152
Wolves center Karl-Anthony Towns is scoring more — and the team is winning more — without guard Zach LaVine (8) in the lineup. (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

After all the sifting, sorting and calculating are finished, sports tends to be very bottom-line oriented.

Did you win or did you lose?

For the Timberwolves this season, that question has had an interesting answer based on the presence or absence of one player: Zach LaVine.

With LaVine on the floor this season, the Wolves are 16-31. When LaVine has missed games — one early in the year, two more along the way and then the past 16 with a torn ACL that will keep him out for the rest of the season — Minnesota was 12-7 entering Wednesday's game in Boston.

It has created somewhat of a strange question: Why do the Timberwolves appear to be a better team without LaVine, one of their best scorers and a heralded member of the "Big Three" along with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins?

As is often the case, the strange question doesn't have a perfect answer.

• A popular notion is that for as many strides as LaVine has made on offense — he was averaging close to 19 points per game when he was injured, and he has had binges with massive totals — his defense is still far below par. LaVine himself is aware of this, having joked in January that he would play his best defense as a birthday present for head coach Tom Thibodeau. Because of his poor defense, LaVine's net rating (minus-3.5) is the worst on the team. When a player with such a poor net rating is playing 37 minutes (more than three quarters) of every game, the results might not be pretty.

But as a very good piece in The Ringer suggests, LaVine alone is not responsible for the Wolves' defensive woes. The Wolves are even better on defense when Towns or Wiggins comes off the floor than they have been without LaVine on the floor.

• That leads us to a more complicated suggestion that the Wolves more or less just fit together better in their current alignment — with veteran Brandon Rush having taken over the starting role for LaVine. This is perhaps harder to quantify, but anyone who has watched the Wolves lately could make that argument.

Towns and Wiggins were already standout offensive players, but in the 16 games entering Wednesday since LaVine's injury they have been even better. Towns is averaging 28.9 points and 13.4 rebounds (compared to 23 points and 11.9 rebounds before). Wiggins has scored 25.6 ppg (compared to 22.1 before). Ricky Rubio has been magnificent in that span, too — averaging 13 points and 11 assists while attempting 10 field goals per game. Before LaVine's injury? Rubio averaged 8.6 points, 8.2 assists and just 6.6 field goal attempts per game.

The uptick in scoring from those three players, plus whatever Rush contributes on offense, has more than compensated for the loss of LaVine's 19 ppg.

But is that sustainable? And does that really mean the Wolves are "better" without LaVine?

You could make the case that the starting lineup is better with a player like Rush — a veteran with more bulk who can spread the floor, typically makes the right play, is decent on defense and doesn't need to score to be effective but can hit open threes — than LaVine. But you could still decide within that conclusion that LaVine is a valuable player who is perhaps suited for a sixth-man role.

Then again, all this analysis could just be silly and the real answer for why the Wolves have been better lately could simply be a young team under a new coach is starting to figure things out.

At the very least, this stretch should give the Wolves something to think about when they ponder their roster construction as LaVine returns to health.

about the writer

about the writer

Michael Rand

Columnist / Reporter

Michael Rand is the Minnesota Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Minnesota Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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