Outcomes for big matchups in high school football state quarterfinals depend heavily on momentum and scheme, predictors say
The last weekend of outdoor football looms as teams vie for the chance to play at U.S. Bank Stadium in the state semifinals.
Edina Hornets (8-2) vs. Maple Grove Crimson (10-0), 7 p.m. Thursday at Park Center
David says: Watch your step, Maple Grove. The Crimson have a trip to U.S. Bank Stadium in their sights and must avoid coming out flat after a 34-0 beatdown of Eden Prairie. And if anyone could slip the underdog shackles, it’s Edina, with a veteran core of quarterback Mason West and game-breaking wide receivers Jabari Strader, Trillion Sorrell and Meyer Swinney. The pick: Maple Grove 28, Edina 21
Jim says: Maple Grove coach Adam Spurrell’s mission for his team this postseason has been simple: Play “until we run out of games.” So far, the Crimson look like a team destined to follow that path to its logical conclusion in the Prep Bowl. Edina is a capable foe and won’t make it easy, but Maple Grove simply has more pieces. The pick: Maple Grove 27, Edina 17
Minnetonka Skippers (8-2) vs. Blaine Bengals (7-3), 6 p.m. Thursday at Osseo
David says: Blaine senior quarterback Sam Shaughnessy and company took every ounce of pushback from Rosemount and Forest Lake to get here. Minnetonka, though, is another level of football. The Skippers sank Park of Cottage Grove and Rochester Mayo by a combined 96-14 and did so without several key defensive players. Full-strength Minnetonka puts up a stop sign to Blaine’s playoff fortunes. The pick: Minnetonka 38, Blaine 21
Jim says: The thing that makes Minnetonka formidable is humility. The Skippers have a well-defined sense of self and know what they do well and stick to it. Their offensive line might be the best in the state, adept at creating inviting lanes for QB Caleb Francois and RB Chase Conrad to run through. The defense — fast, bruising and opportunistic — is a perfect complement. Blaine has its own superb running QB in Shaughnessy, but Tonka’s defense is up to this challenge. The pick: Minnetonka 30, Blaine 20
Shakopee Sabers (9-1) vs. Mounds View Mustangs (8-2), 7 p.m. Friday at Spring Lake Park
David says: It’s all the same in terms of Shakopee’s ground game. Only the names will change. Running backs TJ Clark, Zach Docteur and Emmanuel Taye have taken turns shredding the Sabers’ past three opponents to the tune of more than 1,200 yards. Mounds View can’t stop them all. The pick: Shakopee 35, Mounds View 14
Jim says: Stopping Shakopee’s veer option requires four quarters of commitment. Opponents might have success early, but eventually the Sabers will wear you down. Mounds View’s defense is good enough to shut down Shakopee for a while, but the Sabers’ relentless style will cause the Mustangs’ wall to splinter. The pick: Shakopee 22, Mounds View 14
Class 5A
Alexandria Cardinals (8-2) vs. Armstrong Falcons (10-0), 11 a.m. Saturday at Monticello
David says: Armstrong senior running back Kevon Johnson might be the state’s best. And don’t sleep on senior quarterback Dawson Franke, either. The kid is a winner. This duo has the Falcons on the brink of reaching the state semifinals and they are enough to push them over the finish line. The pick: Armstrong 28, Alexandria 27
Jim says: If it’s true, as David has written often, that iron sharpens iron, then Alexandria’s recent slate should have the Cardinals sharp as razors. It’s about time Armstrong’s remarkable Kevon Johnson receives the kudos he deserves. Johnson will get his, but Alexandria’s depth on both sides of the ball will be the difference. The pick: Alexandria 41, Armstrong 28
Chanhassen Storm (7-3) vs. St. Thomas Academy Cadets (7-3), noon Saturday at Osseo
David says: Well, well, well. The Storm took a bit to gather this fall, but the team is back. Be warned, Cadets, the gales of November remember. The pick: Chanhassen 24, St. Thomas Academy 21
Jim says: Chanhassen’s storm has been brewing all season. Whereas last year, the Storm won with explosive offense and timely stops, this year they’re taking a more traditional posture: leaning on the defense. They’re playing their best right now, holding the past four opponents to 29 total points. The pick: Chanhassen 24, St. Thomas Academy 16
A stream of the game, pitting a pair of state tournament contenders, will be available at startribune.com at 7 p.m. Friday.