NFC North Week 9 picks: Packers, Lions in a showdown while Vikings try to end skid
The Minnesota Star Tribune’s Mark Craig takes a spin around the NFC North and finds a dynamic duo in Detroit, a red-zone revelation in Chicago and a potent offense in Green Bay.
In Detroit, a shout-out to Tim Twentyman, senior writer for the Lions team website, who offered up a stat of the week that ties what the Lions’ running game is doing today to what a quartet of Hall of Famers did 64 years ago. Lions running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the best duo in the league, each have 550 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. Per Twentyman, it’s the first time since 1960 that a team has had two backs do that through seven games. Two teams did that in 1960: Cleveland, with Jim Brown and Bobby Mitchell; and Green Bay, with Paul Hornung and Jim Taylor.
In Chicago, the defense is a heck of a lot better inside the 20 than it is from 52 yards out at the end of games (See: Washington, Hail Mary, Week 8, d’oh!). Chicago leads the league in red-zone defense, giving up touchdowns from inside the 20 only seven times in 19 chances (36.8%). Ironically, the Bears kept last week’s game competitive because they held the Commanders to four field goals in the red zone, including three drives that ended inside the 10-yard line.
In Green Bay, the Packers rank sixth in the NFL in scoring (27.0 points per game) and are the only team in the league to reach at least 24 points seven times this season. Green Bay’s active streak of six is tied with Baltimore for the longest. The only time the Packers didn’t score 24 points was in Week 2, when they defeated the Colts 16-10 with Malik Willis starting at quarterback 21 days after arriving from Tennessee via trade.
The picks
Colts (+5½) at Vikings
Sunday, 7:20 p.m.
The Vikings’ chances of winning dipped when Shane Steichen benched starting quarterback Anthony Richardson, and the Vikings lost left tackle Christian Darrisaw. But the Vikings (5-2) are still a better team than the 4-4 Colts, playing at home, in prime time, in T.J. Hockenson’s return. Joe Flacco has seen it all, but he won’t be able to escape all that the Vikings throw at him as Brian Flores redeems himself after a 10-quarter wobble the past three weeks. Vikings 27, Colts 21
Bears (+1) at Cardinals
Sunday, 3:05 p.m.
The rest of the NFL would like to thank the 4-3 Bears’ fourth-ranked scoring defense for last week’s public service announcement on how not to defend a game-ending Hail Mary or the play before the game-ending Hail Mary. This week, they’ll just lose on a run-of-the-mill last-second field goal to Arizona (4-4). Cardinals 24, Bears 22
Lions (-2½) at Packers
Sunday, 3:25 p.m.
The Lions (6-1) have won five in a row. They’re averaging 43 points the last four games. Jared Goff completed 12 passes for 85 yards a week ago. And the Lions still scored 52. The Packers (6-2) are more sneaky good. QB Jordan Love is battling a groin injury that could bring Willis and his totally different skillset into play even if Love starts. Detroit wins the NFL’s game of the week. Lions 34, Packers 24
Season results
Record/vs. spread: 17-10/17-9-1.
Vikings pick/vs. spread: 2-5/2-4-1.
Got a question about the Vikings? Email it to accessvikings@startribune.com. We’ll answer your questions in an upcoming Access Vikings newsletter or podcast.
In Atlanta, the refrains praising Kirk Cousins' leadership are familiar. But the longevity of his connection with the Falcons is already in doubt as he prepares to play the Vikings.