The Dalai Lama's rationale for keeping Tibet in China has always had a certain logic to it: China is a great country, and Tibet would benefit by being part of it. Alas, most of the benefit to being part of China on display in recent weeks has not been very tempting.
The fact is, despite displays of clear Tibetan nationalism and calls for Tibetan independence coming from Tibet, the Dalai Lama has long since made up his mind about Tibet's future and will not be moved. And China has long since made up its mind about the Dalai Lama and -- more seriously -- has made very astute use of him.
Since the early 1970s, the Dalai Lama has had no desire to see Tibet independent, although he did not publicly acknowledge this changed position until 1988, when he offered a proposal for partial autonomy. Whatever hopes he may have had for a settlement with China on that basis have come to naught, however.
He started out by asking for "genuine autonomy," with only defense and foreign affairs controlled by China, and over the years ratcheted down his position to "cultural autonomy." In February, his prime minister said Tibetans wanted only the basic rights written into China's law on nationality autonomy. But China decided years ago that it was simply better off without the Dalai Lama -- that he always would be the symbol and focus of Tibetan nationalist aspirations, regardless of his stated position.
More important, China has been using the Dalai Lama's political naiveté to manipulate him. His pronouncements against Tibetan independence have been rejected with assertions that he is insincere; that he has to restate his position sincerely. And he has done so, again and again, repeating these declarations to the world leaders who received him. Given the taint attached to China's incorporation of Tibet into its territory in 1951, and Chinese spokespeople's lack of credibility, the Dalai Lama effectively has been turned into China's prime spokesman against Tibetan independence.
At the same time, he explains China's repeated demands for him to renounce independence by saying that China simply doesn't understand him.
This is sadly ludicrous. With legions of officials working on Tibetan affairs in Beijing, one can rest assured that each word of the Dalai Lama's is parsed. It is the Dalai Lama's exile government, short on resources and talent, that is hard-pressed to understand China and Chinese policies.
And so China handily makes use of the Dalai Lama to marginalize and portray as extremists those Tibetans who want to see an independent Tibet, no matter how nonviolent they may be, no matter how great a majority of the Tibetan population they may constitute. China thus bides its time, waiting for the 72-year-old Dalai Lama to die, whereupon it will select a new Dalai Lama, one educated within and loyal to China.