Analysis: NFL’s best QB? Coach? Defense? Chiefs tamer? Tortured fan base? Let’s dive in to wild-card weekend.

The NFL, in a rare display of humility, isn’t calling this “Super Wild Card Weekend” anymore. So, welcome to plain-old wild-card weekend, where 12 teams with a combined 137 wins — an opening-round record — will fight to join the NFC’s top-seeded Lions (15-2) to see if anyone on God’s green earth can prevent Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the AFC’s top-seeded Chiefs (15-2) from claiming a historic Super Bowl three-peat when the 59th chapter of the grand game is held in New Orleans on Feb. 9.

“I think the Ravens and what Lamar [Jackson] has been able to do this year has been something to watch,” said Vikings edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. “They got a shot against the Chiefs, I think.”

Everyone has taken their best shot. But the Chiefs — good, bad or ugly — are 11-0 in one-score games. They beat the five-win Panthers on a walk-off field goal by a backup kicker. They beat the four-win Raiders twice by a combined nine points. They beat the Ravens on a walk-off booth review that overturned a Jackson touchdown pass on opening night.

Throw out the 38-0 Week 18 loss to Denver when they rested their starters (and made darn sure the red-hot Bengals missed the playoffs), and the only team to beat the Chiefs was the Bills with Josh Allen outplaying Mahomes at the end of a 30-21 win.

“I’ve seen a lot of crossover film of Josh Allen this year and, wow,” said Vikings center Garrett Bradbury. “He’s at an unreal level. That’s a team in the AFC that can beat Kansas City.

“As for the NFC? Man, there’s a lot of good teams that can reach the Super Bowl. We got to bring our A game, for sure.”

Yes, Vikings fans, it only feels like your season is over after that soul-crushing loss at Detroit. The reality is the playoffs can’t end until they first begin. And right now the Vikings, Broncos, Chargers and Commanders should be celebrating that the NFL has now reached 35 straight seasons of having at least four teams reach the playoffs that didn’t do so the year before.

Here are some things to watch as the playoffs begin with two games Saturday, three Sunday and the Vikings and Rams on Monday in Glendale, Ariz.

Jackson or Allen will win league MVP. Jared Goff directed the No. 1 scoring offense (33.2) while leading the Lions to their first No. 1 seed. And, statistically speaking, 11 of the 14 playoff quarterbacks had a better season by virtue of a higher passer rating than Mahomes’ 93.5, including rookie Jayden Daniels (100.1), who led Washington to its first 12-win season since 1991 when it won a Super Bowl at the Metrodome.

Who cares! Mahomes was a 10-win QB with a 92.6 rating last year en route to his third Super Bowl victory in his fourth appearance in seven years. Five of this year’s playoff QBs have started at least one Super Bowl (Mahomes, Goff, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts). Three have won a Super Bowl (Mahomes, Wilson and Stafford). Who’s the best QB? He’s not playing this week, but you’ll see him selling State Farm insurance every other commercial.

The top nine scoring defenses made the playoffs, led by the Chargers (17.7). Then again, 10 of the top 11 scoring offenses made it, the exception being No. 6 Cincinnati. The past 10 Super Bowl winners had an average ranking of sixth in scoring offense and seventh in scoring defense.

“What I look at is the trenches, on both sides of the ball,” Bradbury said. “Typically, the team that’s winning the rushing battle is winning the trenches and winning the game.”

That favors the Ravens, who rank first in rushing (187.6) and first in run defense (80.1). Not so much for the Rams, who rank 24th in rushing (103.8) and 22nd in run defense (130.0). The Rams also have the second-worst scoring defense among playoff teams (17th, 22.7). Washington is 18th (23.0) with a No. 30 run defense (137.5). Is defense still important? Ask Mahomes, who was punished by the Bucs’ No. 3 scoring defense in his only Super Bowl defeat five years ago and won last year’s Super Bowl with the help of Kansas City’s No. 2 scoring defense.

Kevin O’Connell was hired by the Vikings on Feb. 16, 2022. A month shy of three years later, he has vaulted to 14th on the list of coaches who have been with their current team the longest. Nine of the top 14 longest-tenured coaches made the playoffs, including the dean, Mike Tomlin, who still hasn’t had a losing season since leaving the Vikings to work for Pittsburgh in 2007.

O’Connell is a favorite to win his first NFL Coach of the Year award. Deservedly so for pulling 14 wins out of a rebuilt Sam Darnold. Reid will go another year without having ever won the award with the Chiefs. That’s how high he has set the bar for himself. But Reid, the best coach in the league — and a guy once considered unable to win the big one — is second in league history in career postseason wins (26) and one of five coaches to win at least three Super Bowls. And counting, probably.

In conversations around the Vikings’ locker room, the most common answer when asked to name the most important stat to win in the playoffs was predictable: “Turnovers,” Bradbury said. Thirteen of the top 14 teams in turnover differential made the playoffs. The only one that didn’t was Chicago (ninth). The Bills dominated the differential stat with a plus-24 — eight better than No. 2 Pittsburgh. The Bills had 32 takeaways and only eight giveaways, including just seven by Allen. The Steelers and Vikings had the most takeaways, 33. That’s the most takeaways by the Vikings since they had 36 in 2006. The Vikings led the league with 24 interceptions, their most since 2005.

The Vikings, however, ranked tied for 17th in giveaways (21). Among playoff teams, only the Bucs were worse (23). Tampa Bay’s minus-5 turnover differential also is the worst among playoff teams. Washington, at plus-1, is the only other playoff team that isn’t plus-6 or better.

The Chiefs were the ninth team to repeat as Super Bowl champs. Here’s how the first eight three-peat efforts ended: The 1968 Packers, ’80 Steelers and ’99 Broncos missed the playoffs; the 1974 Dolphins and 2005 Patriots lost in the divisional round; and the 1976 Steelers, ’90 49ers and ’94 Cowboys lost in the conference title game. Only the 1990 49ers and 2024 Chiefs started their three-peat playoff hunt as No. 1 seeds.

Now, let’s look at the flip side of the postseason fandom joy spectrum for this year’s participants. Five teams haven’t won a Super Bowl: the Vikings (0-4), Bills (0-4), Chargers (0-1), Lions (0-0) and Texans (0-0). The Bills, however, won two AFL titles (1964-65) and the Chargers one (1963) before the Super Bowl began; the Lions won four NFL titles from 1935-57; and the Texans were formed in 2002. The Vikings did win the 1969 NFL championship, but had to play on, losing to the Chiefs in Super Bowl IV. That makes the Vikings, with their 21-31 postseason record (.404) the best story to root for, right?

“I’d say we’re the most surprising team in the playoffs,” running back Cam Akers said. “We’re the underdogs. I like it that way.”

Winner of this segment (kind of): Vikings fans.

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