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When Donald Trump’s lead widened in July, the brilliant Democratic operative James Carville called for Joe Biden to quit his re-election bid and quipped: “The country wants something new. Let them have it.” Democrats heeded that advice, and now, just a month or so later, Trump is trailing in most polls. Politics sure can turn on a dime.
But this shouldn’t be the case. An overwhelming majority of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a political bellwether that should spell defeat for an incumbent or a top deputy like Vice President Kamala Harris. And polls show voters trust Republicans over Democrats on the key issues of the economy, inflation, jobs and crime. Democrats, including both Harris and Tim Walz, were also strident in their dishonesty when they repeatedly assured us that Biden was mentally fit for another term; their credibility is shot. The GOP nominee should be running away with this race. Why isn’t he?
To be sure, Democrats deserve credit for putting on a magnificent convention last month. It was uplifting, optimistic and patriotic — things that have always played well with voters. And Harris is a gifted politician with a compelling life story and likable family.
Republicans also face unfair headwinds. Democrats invested the weeklong national spotlight in Chicago on knocking the Republican ticket hard. The GOP was robbed of the opportunity to do the same in Milwaukee since their opponent then was not the one they face now. And conservative messaging is and always has been difficult with the flagrant bias in much of the mainstream media for Democratic politicians and ideas. Harris is also the most unchallenged candidate ever to top a presidential ticket by hop-skipping over the normally bruising primary process and not even granting one single interview or news conference to explain her rationale for running prior to her precipitous ascension. It’s no wonder a candidate unscathed by such scrutiny is polling well.
But the cold hard truth is also that Donald Trump isn’t winning this winnable race because of Donald Trump, an undisciplined, erratic and pretty unpopular guy. While his administration was in many respects wildly successful, Americans don’t want a return to the chaos and disunity he promoted when he was in the White House, or a continuation of the partisan divisiveness that his successor has contributed to. Most voters — me included — want steadiness back at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
If Trump can convince the electorate that a second Trump presidency won’t look like the first in terms of temperament and demeanor, he could take the lead in this race again.