RandBall: Can the Vikings’ Sam Darnold be this year’s Baker Mayfield?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought in a once highly regarded quarterback from the 2018 class on a one-year contract last season in hopes of building a bridge from the past (Tom Brady) to the future. Predictive models didn’t think much of the move; the Bucs’ over-under win total in 2023 was 6.5.

But Tampa Bay ended up going 9-8, thanks in large part to quarterback Baker Mayfield’s more-than-competent, career-resurrecting season in which he threw for more than 4,000 yards along with 28 TD passes and just 10 interceptions.

That brings us to the Vikings, who would be thrilled with the same result in 2024. They have also brought in a once highly regarded QB from the 2018 class on a one-year contract in hopes of building a bridge from the past (Kirk Cousins) to the future (J.J. McCarthy). And they, too, have an over-under of 6.5 wins this year.

Can the Vikings’ Sam Darnold, whose competency is even more urgent now that McCarthy is out for the season, be this year’s Mayfield? I examined that question on Friday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

A few takeaways:

1. Mayfield’s previous body of work before 2023 was more impressive than Darnold’s is now. Mayfield narrowly missed out on being the AP Rookie of the Year in 2018 and led the Browns to the playoffs in 2020 with a very efficient year (26 TDs, eight INTs, 10th in Total QBR). Darnold has never approached that level.

2. What made Mayfield’s 2023 season particularly impressive was that he thrived even though the Buccaneers were a dismal rushing team (last in rushing yards per attempt and game).

3. The seeds of optimism for both QBs came from an interesting shared experience in 2022. They competed for the starting job in Carolina that season. Mayfield won the spot over Darnold but had a dismal showing (1-5 record, six interceptions in six starts). He was released toward the end of the year, caught on with the Rams and produced enough down the stretch to land in Tampa the next year. Darnold, meanwhile, started the final six games for the Panthers and went 4-2. That led to a backup job with the 49ers last year and a chance like Mayfield to reset his career.

4. Mayfield was in a much better situation in Cleveland than Darnold was with the Jets when they were young quarterbacks. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski in 2020 brought a balanced offensive model with him from the Vikings in 2019; both of those teams had a nearly 50-50 run-pass split.

5. That brings us to how Darnold can be successful this season. The Panthers ran the ball more than 40 times in each of those four Darnold wins at the end of 2022. Unless the Vikings lock Kevin O’Connell in his office, they will never do that. But they can take some lessons from the 2019 Vikings and also the way Darnold had success in 2022 — he was 3-1 in his first four starts with zero turnovers while throwing the ball a little more than 20 times per game — in crafting their path forward. They can’t have Darnold throwing 35 or 40 times a game. He’ll start making mistakes and turning the ball over. The Vikings ran 63 plays per game last season. If that number holds this season, ideally there would be about 30 Darnold throws, a few Darnold scrambles (yes, he’s pretty good at that) and 30 designed runs.

I don’t think Darnold can have the kind of year Mayfield had last year without a running game. But if Aaron Jones has another good year left in him and the Vikings’ defense stays healthy, a nine-win season and career rejuvenation for Darnold is possible.

He might even get a lucrative multi-year contract out of it like Mayfield did with Tampa, though with McCarthy already tabbed as the heir apparent it’s hard to imagine it would be with the Vikings.

Here are four more things to know today: