Not exactly a turnaround, but reason to look forward

Is the 13-month-old bear market starting to back off?

Five up trading days in a row does not constitute a stock-market recovery. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, which declined by nearly half from its high in October 2007 to Nov. 20, 2008, still languishes at 1997 levels.

Joblessness is still mounting. The country is in the teeth of what some say could be a yearlong recession. And Wall Street's mortgage-securities debacle still has the financial system bound up, despite a trillion or so dollars thrown at it or committed to it so far by Washington.

In short, we're still underwater -- particularly if you're in foreclosure, out of work or care to think about the doubling of the federal debt over the past eight years to about $30,000 per American.

Still, some investors, including former bears, are signaling that the market is headed for better times over the next year.

"We're positive on the market," said Andy Engel, a member of the senior research group at the Leuthold Group in Minneapolis. "We think the United States is in a two-year recession and we're about 14 months through it. The stock market usually starts to turn up about this time in a recession."

The Leuthold folks are not Pollyannas. They are bearish at least a third of the time, and their Grizzly Short mutual fund doubled in value over the past year before dropping markedly over the past two weeks.

A lot of bad things could disrupt that prediction.

But heck, it's the holidays. Let's give the folks who have taken baths in their stock-oriented retirement funds a break. Things may get better.

During the past five trading days, the major indexes moved up double digits, including the S&P 500 (19.1 percent); Russell 2000 (22.8 percent) and the Star Tribune-Bloomberg News index (17.3 percent) of Minnesota's 100 largest public companies.

The uptick comes after those indexes recorded year-to-date declines of 39 percent, 38.2 percent and 36.2 percent, respectively.

The best-performing Minnesota stock was Life Time Fitness Inc., up 69 percent, to $14.97, over the past five trading days. That was because Leonard Green & Partners, a Los Angeles private equity firm, disclosed that it acquired 9 percent of the Chanhassen-based operator of health clubs. The stock is still miles off its 52-week high of $55.57.

The gainers included:

• Piper Jaffray Companies, up 43 percent over five days to a $37.89 close Friday.

• Mosaic Co., the world's biggest fertilizer company, up 36 percent, to $30.35. That's a long ride from its $163.25 high amid the summer's commodities boom.

• H.B. Fuller Co., up 36 percent, to $17.74, $10 off the 52-week high for the glue and adhesives manufacturer.

• TCF Financial Corp., up 34 percent, to $16.70, thanks partly to an upgrade from Stifel Nicolaus and speculation that the regional banker will sell to a larger conglomerate.

Keith Tufte, a veteran portfolio manager, sent clients a Thanksgiving holiday letter this week that's bullish on several counts, including: double coupon days at Rainbow Foods, the chance to buy stocks at cheap prices and a reminder that good health and a good attitude are priceless and that life's greatest joys are free.