Air Quality Alert on Tuesday
An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the northern half of Minnesota from 4am to 4pm Tuesday. Smoke from fires in Canada will be pushed southward along a cold front overnight. Orange (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups) AQI is forecasted in the alert area.
Smoke Analysis Midday Tuesday
The smoke analysis by midday Tuesday shows widespread smoke overhead across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region thanks to wildfires burning in Canada. This will make skies smoky and hazy through much of the day.
Weather Outlook Through Friday
Weather conditions through the rest of the week remains quiet through Wednesday. However, a cool front will sweep through with a few showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Skies will quickly clear on Friday as cooler air settles in for a couple of days.
Precipitation Outlook
The precipitation outlook through the end of the week doesn't appear to be all that impressive with some locations seeing 0.25" to 0.50" tallies. The heavier amounts of up to 0.50" will be found closer to northeastern Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, May 16th shows another sunny and mild day with highs warming into the lower 80s for the Twin Cities. Thanks to Canadian wildfires, skies will be fairly smoky/hazy with some air quality concerns north of the Twin Cities.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temps on Tuesday will be nearly +10F to +15F above average across the region with highs warming into the 70s and lower 80s, which is more like mid-June standards.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Tuesday shows temps starting in the mid-50s in the morning and warming to near 80F by the afternoon. Skies will generally be sunny, but smoke from Canadian wildfires will keep skies smoky and hazy throughout the day. Northwesterly winds will be a bit breezy with some 15mph to 20mph.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures will be very mild on Tuesday with readings warming to near 80F, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average. Wednesday and Thursday will still be nearly +5F above average as we warm into the mid 70s, but Friday will be quite a bit cooler as we drop nearly 10F into the low/mid 60s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities looks sunny and mild through Wednesday before a cool front sweeps through the region on Thursday with a few showers and thunderstorms. Post-front we'll cool into the mid 60s, which will be a little bit below average for this time of the year. However, mild sunshine returns as we slide into the weekend.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis keeps fairly mild readings in place through midweek. A cold front sweeps through on Thursday with a few showers and storms. Temps will then fall into the mid 60s Friday in the wake of the front, but the cool down will be brief as temps warm back into the 70s this weekend and into next week.
Weather Outlook
It'll be quite a big quieter in the Central US as we approach midweek. However, a cool front sweeping out of Canada will create unsettled weather across the Midwest with a few showers and storms.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures settling in across the northern tier of the nation and especially across the High Plains and the Northeast. Cooler than average temps will be in place across the Southern US
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the Southern US and especially across the Southwest. Meanwhile, things look a little quieter across parts of the Northern US including the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast.
What Do Best Buy and Mayo Clinic Have In Common?
By Paul Douglas
Would Best Buy or Mayo Clinic be around today had it not been for tornadoes? Not sure. Both owe their "Creation Stories" to ill-timed tornadoes.
An extreme, F5 tornado leveled much of Rochester, Minnesota on August 21, 1883. The Mayo brothers oversaw the creation of a makeshift hospital to assist the injured, inspiring St. Mary's Hospital, which would become The Mayo Clinic.
A 1981 tornado hit the "Sound of Music" store in Roseville, causing significant damage. Management held a Tornado Sale to get rid of inventory. People wanted to see the tornado damage and get the "best buy". The sale did so well it sparked a new business model that became... Best Buy.
Expect 80s later today with a little smoky sunshine, the result of prevailing jet stream steering winds blowing from the direction of Alberta, Canada, where multiple fires are blazing.
Showers arrive Thursday; another clipper-like swipe of showers next Monday - otherwise dry weather prevails most of the next 2 weeks. Dry and comfortable. Sounds good.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Hazy, smoky sunshine. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 83.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Winds: NNE 5-10. Low: 55.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: SE 10-15. High 77.
THURSDAY: Clouds increase, late PM showers. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 58. High 73.
FRIDAY: Cool wind, pop-up shower late? Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 54. High 63.
SATURDAY: Plenty of comfortable sunshine. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 71.
SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 54. High: 74.
MONDAY: Gusty, few passing showers. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 52. High: 65.
This Day in Weather History
May 16th
1934: An extremely hot spell results in temperatures over 100 across parts of Minnesota, and record highs of 94 in St. Cloud and Minneapolis.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 15th
Average High: 69F (Record: 94F set in 1934)
Average Low: 50F (Record: 31F set in 1890 & 1929)
Record Rainfall: 1.10" set in 1905
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1916
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 15th
Sunrise: 5:42am
Sunset: 8:35pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 52 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +2 Minutes & 15 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 hour & 06 minutes
Moon Phase for May 15th at Midnight
2.4 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be very mild across much of the nation and especially Midwest and Western half of the nation, where readings will be nearly +10F to +15F above average.
National Weather Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday will be unsettled across the Southeastern US, where some showers and storms will be possible. The best chance of strong to severe storms will be found across the Mid-Atlantic States.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Thursday still shows unsettled weather along and east of the Mississippi River Valley. A few of the storms across the Mid-Atlantic States could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, another front will slide out of Canada with moisture bubbling north across the Plains. This will allow a few showers and storms to develop across the Central US, some of which could be a little on the vigorous side with pockets of locally heavy rain.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central US. A few locations from the Front Range of the Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic States could see 1" to 3" of rain over the next several days.
Climate Stories
"The U.S. hasn't seen an EF5 tornado in almost 10 years. What's going on?"
"You might say the Oklahoma City suburb of Moore has earned the label "long-suffering" honestly. Moore was among the places in central Oklahoma devastated on May 3, 1999, by the final tornado to earn an F5 rating on the original Fujita Damage Intensity Scale or F-scale. The long-track tornado led to 41 deaths, injured more than 550 people, and caused some $1 billion in damage in 1999 dollars. The F-scale, meant to rate tornado intensity based on damage assessments, was decommissioned in 2007 and replaced with the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Moore was also ravaged on May 20, 2013, by the most recent tornado to be rated EF5 — meaning winds gusted over 200 mph — on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. With top winds of 210 mph, the 2013 twister killed 26 people, destroyed more than 1,100 homes, and left an estimated $2 billion in damage (2013 USD), putting it among the most expensive tornadoes on record."
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
"Climate change and droughts: What's the connection?"
"For tens of millions of Americans, drought has become an ever-present natural disaster. That's particularly true in the Western United States. Because of the West's largely semi-arid and desert climates, droughts are natural occurrences across the region. However, regional climate isn't the only culprit in drought activity. Climate change, namely rising average temperatures driven by human-generated emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, is contributing to droughts, too. Global warming increases the risk of drought in several ways. For one, water generally evaporates more quickly at higher temperatures. For that reason, hotter weather can result in drier soils. As high air temperatures sap liquid water from soils and plant leaves, transforming it into atmospheric water vapor via a process called transpiration, ground-level drying will increase in some regions. (Ironically, this additional atmospheric moisture triggers heavier downpours in other regions, which explains why the overall trend in the U.S. has been toward wetter conditions.)"
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
"America's aging flood control infrastructure is failing – federal funding is coming, but too often new construction relies on old data"
"Heavy downpours and a thick snowpack in the Western mountains and Upper Midwest have put communities in several states at risk of flooding this spring – or already under water. Flooding is the costliest type of natural disaster in the U.S., responsible for about 90% of the damage from natural disasters each year. It happens almost every day somewhere in the country. Yet, much of the aging infrastructure meant to protect U.S. communities is in bad shape and, in some cases, failing. The American Society of Civil Engineers gave the nation's dams, levees and stormwater infrastructure a D grade in its latest report card, in 2021. Help is coming. Congress authorized billions of dollars for infrastructure projects under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021. But there's a problem: New infrastructure planning frequently relies on historical flood patterns for its benchmarks rather than forecasts of changing risks as the climate warms."
See more from the Conversation HERE:
