The 21st century has quickly become the Analytics Age, revolutionizing industry after industry. What can we learn from industries that were early adopters, such as professional sports?
Over the past decade, the National Basketball Association has followed Major League Baseball (a la Moneyball) in being managed by an increasingly sophisticated set of measurements and algorithms, rather than traditional limited metrics and "gut instincts."
This has led to a focus on "efficient" basketball, both in selecting players, coaching systems and player self-development. It has led to teams emphasizing long range three-point shots and layups, as midrange jump shots have been proven to be the least efficient use of a possession.
In many respects, this has led to a golden age of the NBA. Though top players today rarely have the benefit of extensive college coaching, they work with sophisticated coaches in the offseason to continuously improve their skills, in contrast to past decades where a player's development mostly took place before they joined the NBA.
But the NBA analytics revolution has magnified one of the league's historical problems, namely "tanking"; losing enough games to raise the chances of receiving a top pick in the NBA Draft. The poster child for tanking this decade are the Philadelphia 76ers. In 2013, the Sixers hired Sam Hinkie, one of the top young analytically driven executives in the NBA, as general manager. Hinkie installed a radical analytics-driven strategy, following this chain of logic:
1. Competing for championships is the only measure of success. A team that wins half its games and makes the playoffs is not a moderate success, it is perpetuating mediocrity, since it will be rewarded with mediocre draft picks.
2. Since the NBA is dominated by a handful of superstars, the optimal strategy to win a title is to lose as many games as possible for several years, to draft high and assemble a "portfolio" of superstars.
Hinkie called his approach the "Process" and pursued it for nearly four years before getting fired in early 2017. In that period, the 76ers won about 25 percent of their games; one year they won just 12 of 82 games. Many other teams pursued tanking strategies, though none as obviously and egregiously as Philadelphia.