WASHINGTON - On Friday morning, when the Labor Department reports November employment numbers, they're likely to show strong hiring for the second consecutive month.
Economists hope this is a return to something approaching normalcy after a brutal three-year stretch for the U.S. economy.
One big reason for optimism is Wednesday's ADP National Employment Report, which showed that the private sector added 93,000 jobs in November. More than half of those jobs -- 54,000 -- were in firms with 49 employees or fewer, a good sign that the recovery is strengthening.
"It certainly is something that jumped out at not only me when I was working the report, but other people that read the report," said Joel Prakken, chairman of forecaster Macroeconomic Advisers, which prepares the monthly report with data collected by Automatic Data Processing Inc. "The growth of employment on small payrolls has been disappointing. ... I was really heartened by those [new] numbers. It's only one month, and it doesn't make a trend, but it's heartening for sure."
Last month the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported stronger than expected 151,000 jobs gained in October, and analysts expect a similar report on Friday. Consensus forecasts expect 150,000 to 170,000 additional jobs for November.
"It wouldn't surprise me if the BLS is above consensus for that number. I'm hopeful that we're going to see another 150,000 or 200,000 from the BLS," said Prakken.
Still, he cautioned that job growth even in that range isn't enough to knock down the unemployment rate much; it's been stuck at 9.6 percent for months and above 9 percent since May 2009. That's the longest stretch with the jobless rate that high since records began being kept after World War II.
Another reason for optimism: The number of Americans filing initial jobless claims for the four-week period ending Thursday was the lowest in two years. Over that four-week period, the average of first-time claims was under 431,000 after coming in about 450,000 for most of 2010.