3rd Driest Summer Halfway Point For MSP
The stretch from June 1st to August 30th is known as meteorological summer, which is typically the warmest 3 months on average for the northern hemisphere. This is also the wettest season of the year, averaging nearly 13" of rain. We've now just passed the halfway point of meteorological summer and we've only picked up 1.69" of rain at the MSP Airport, which is tied for the 3rd driest start to any summer on record. The driest such period was back in 1988, when only 1.10" of rain fell.
60 Day Precipitation Anomaly
The map below shows the 60 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink) since mid May. Spots in Southwestern and northwestern Minnesota still have a bit of a surplus, but much of the region is well below average precipitation.
Drought Update
It has been an extremely dry stretch of weather across much of the station over the last several weeks. Only a few locations have seen decent pockets of rain, but the drought is expanding. Severe drought conditions have expanded from nearly 8.5% last week to nearly 11% this week, which encompasses parts of the east Metro. Moderate drought increased from 57% last week to 64% this week. We need rain!
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through the upcoming weekend shows a few pockets of heavier rain, mainly across the northern half of the state. Folks across the southern half of the state will stay mainly dry with only a few tenths of an inch of rain here and there.
Severe Risk on Wednesday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is an isolated risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of Central and Southern Minnesota on Wednesday. A few storms later in the day could produce gusty winds and hail, which includes the Twin Cities.
Simulated Radar
The simulated radar from AM Tuesday to Wednesday Night sows another storm system moving through the region with a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Wednesday. Some of the storms could be a little on the strong side with gusty winds and hail possible. There could be a few pockets of heavier rainfall in some of the stronger storms, but beneficial rains won't be widespread.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, July 18th will be quiet and dry with temperatures warming into the lower 80s by the afternoon. Skies may still be a little hazy, but certainly not as hazy as it was over the weekend.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Tuesday shows temps starting around 60F in the morning and topping out in the lower 80s in the afternoon. Skies will be dry with a few clouds and a little bit of haze thanks to those Canadian wildfires. Southerly winds won't be strong as they were yesterday, but there could be a few 15mph gusts later in the day.
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
Temps across the region on Tuesday will warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be at or slightly below average for mid July. Much of the state will remain dry Tuesday, but unsettled weather across the Dakotas will move east into Minnesota on Wednesday.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows highs warming into the low to mid 80s, which will be pretty close to average for this time of the year.
Stickier Dewpoints Linger Early This Week
Dewpoints over the next several days will be pretty comfortable with readings in the 50s and lower 60s, which won't be too bad. Anything above 60F is typically a little uncomfortable, but thanks to the extremely dry weather over the last several days, dewpoints have been a little lower too.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities will be fairly quiet through early next week with temps running a little cooler than average as well. Isolated showers and storms develop midweek with temps warming back into the mid/upper 80s, which will be slightly above average.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be a little cooler as we slide through the next few days. Readings get a little warm as we approach the 2nd half of next week and beyond. The end of July could be a little hotter with more 90s in the forecast.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions across parts of the Central US will be unsettled at times with chances of showers and thunderstorms drifting through. There could be a few isolated severe storms with locally heavy rainfall, but the most unsettled weather appears to be developing along and east of the Mississippi River Valley. The Western US will remain mostly hot and dry as the heat dome continues.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the nation, including the Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows drier than average conditions across the Central US.
Obnoxious Heat May Return Next Week
By Paul Douglas
Arctic cold wave or heat storm? The correct answer is neither, but you can always slap on more layers. Scorching heat? No thank you.
Friends in Scottsdale, Arizona describe a typical summer day: up early to walk the dog before sunrise. Careful not to touch door handles or other metal objects during the day. All shopping and entertainment takes place after dark, when temperatures "cool" into the 90s. They only come out at night. Desert Zombies.
I saw 116F in Las Vegas and 110F in parts of Italy and Spain. They're calling it a heat storm. This is peak summer but heatwaves are now supersized, thanks to El Nino and a warming climate.
According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service, much of eastern Minnesota is running a 6" rainfall deficit for the last 60 days, and historically the latter half of summer tends to be dry. A shower may pop Wednesday, again Saturday, but no widespread soakings are in sight.
Enjoy this cooler front because some of that western heat returns next week with a streak of 90s.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Warm sunshine, less wind. Winds: SW 7-12. High 83.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Isolated t-shower overnight. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, stray T-storm. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 65. High: 87.
THURSDAY: Scrappy clouds, a cool wind. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up. 65. High 79.
FRIDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 62. High 85.
SATURDAY: Some sun, few T-storms up north. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 87.
SUNDAY: Sunny, bordering on hot again. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 67. High: 88.
MONDAY: Sunny, stinking hot. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 68. High: 91.
This Day in Weather History
July 18th
2000: Fall apparel makes an early debut with a 60 degree high temperature at the Twin Cities, 54 at Brainerd and 52 at Cambridge.
1970: A tornado slices right through the center of Miltona.
1867: The greatest 'unofficial' rainstorm in Minnesota history is reported. 36 inches of rain is recorded in 36 hours near Sauk Center. Disastrous flooding occurs in central Minnesota. The Pomme De Terre river becomes impassable; a courier attempted to cross on horseback and drowned. Flooding also occurs on the Mississippi, with millions of logs lost on the river.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 18th
Average High: 84F (Record: 101F set in 1940)
Average Low: 66F (Record: 49F set in 1873)
Record Rainfall:2.94" set in 1895
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 18th
Sunrise: 5:43m
Sunset: 8:54pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 10 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 1 Minute & 46 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 26 minutes
Moon Phase for July 18th at Midnight
1.5 Days Since New Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be extremely hot across the Southern and Western US, where a number of record highs will be possible.
National Weather Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday will feature isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Central US.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Wednesday shows isolated storms here and there across parts of the nation. Some of the storms could be a strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central and Eastern US. Some of the heaviest rains could once again fall across parts of the Northeastern US, where recent flooding occurred. Meanwhile, the Western US will remain hot and mostly dry with the exception of the Desert Southwestern, where monsoon storms will be possible.
Climate Stories
"What's Happening in the Ocean, and Why It Matters to You and Me"
"Over the last five decades, we've burned enough coal, gas and oil, cut down enough trees, and produced enough other emissions to trap some six billion Hiroshima bombs' worth of heat inside the climate system. Shockingly, though, only 1 percent of that heat has ended up in the atmosphere. As extreme as the "global weirding" we're experiencing today is—people broiling under weeks of heat waves, wildfire smoke turning the skies orange, crops withering in prolonged drought, intense downpours inundating homes—most of it results from only a small fraction of all the heat that's been building up in the climate system. Instead, the majority of that estimated 380 zettajoules of heat, nearly 90 percent of it, is going into the ocean. There, it's setting ocean heat records year after year and driving increasingly severe marine heat waves. The ocean also absorbs about 30 percent of the carbon humans produce, adding up to almost 200 billion tons since the industrial revolution."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
"'An Unstoppable Force': Wind and Solar to Produce More Than a Third of Global Power by 2030, Report Says"
"Solar and wind projects are on course to make up more than a third of global energy capacity by 2030, according to a report by U.S.-based clean energy nonprofit the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). The report said the growth demonstrates that the energy sector will be able to take the necessary steps to meet worldwide climate targets, reported Reuters. Solar and wind currently generate around 12 percent of electricity worldwide, but that is expected to grow to a minimum of 33 percent, offering less expensive energy and pushing out fossil fuel-generated power, the report said. "Exponential growth of clean energy is an unstoppable force that will put more spending power in the pockets of consumers," said Kingsmill Bond, senior principal at RMI, in a Climate Action press release. The research by RMI was conducted in cooperation with the $10 billion Bezos Earth Fund, started by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. According to research from Systems Change Lab, eight countries have built solar and wind generation capacity faster than what is necessary to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the press release said."
"Can Extremely Reflective White Paint Save the Planet?"
"To stabilize global temperatures, humanity needs to replace the energy basis of industrial modernity. We must build vast constellations of wind and solar farms, lace continents with high-voltage transmission lines, replace all internal combustion engines with batteries, decarbonize heavy industry, increase the energy efficiency of our buildings, expand mass transit, and promote housing density, among myriad other things. Unless we just need to dump 139 billion gallons of extremely white paint across roughly 2 percent of the Earth's surface. This week, the New York Times reported on Xiulin Ruan's extraordinary feat of pigmentary engineering. A researcher at Purdue University, Ruan has spent years trying to develop a maximally reflective type of white paint, one that could bounce upwards of 95 percent of the sun's rays off of any given surface and then back out into deep space, cooling the planet in the process. Now, Ruan's team has engineered a shade that reflects 98 percent of sunlight."
See more from From NY Mag HERE:
