Who knows, at this writing, what Vladimir Putin will decide to do with the forces he's massed along Ukraine's borders?
If Putin backs down, maybe thanks to some face-saving diplomatic formula, the Biden administration will deserve full credit for masterly crisis management: whipping into line our European allies, particularly Germany; thwarting Russian covert operations by leaking details to the media; expanding America's military presence in front-line NATO states; working on ways to supply Europe with liquefied natural gas; refusing to negotiate at Ukraine's expense; threatening sanctions against Moscow that, for once, have real teeth.
If Putin doesn't back down, these were still the right and necessary steps. They just weren't sufficient.
Either way, the crisis should serve as a tutorial on what the so-called post-Pax Americana world will look like. In a fantasy version of that world — a world in which American power isn't constantly being called upon to address faraway crises or reassure nervous allies — the U.S. trades the burdens of being a superpower for the modest but more manageable, affordable and humane ambitions of a normal country.
Our military shrinks to a size adequate for national defense, not global policing. We spend the savings on mending the frayed edges of society.
Our allies stop freeloading off our security guarantees and start spending more on their own defense.
Our foreign policy becomes less arrogant and more collaborative. We lose the illusion that we can, or should, solve other people's problems, and we free ourselves from the personal sacrifices and moral compromises that go with that illusion.
Our economic policies shift to adapt to a less-globalized world. Instead of depending on China for low-cost manufacturing and labor, we reinvest in American workers and factories and become independent in everything from energy to microchips.