Some Rain In Eastern Minnesota Saturday - Dry But Windy Sunday

Forecast loop from 1 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

The area of low pressure we've been tracking the past several days will finally move its way through the Upper Midwest as we head through Friday Night and Saturday, spreading rain across eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Twin Cities is going to be on the edge of some of this rain, with better rain chances in southeastern Minnesota. If you go as far west as St. Cloud, rain chances from this batch are likely to be minimal as best. Then as we head through Saturday Night, we could watch a light batch of precipitation move westward across the state.

Rain potential through 6 AM Sunday.

As mentioned, the metro will be on the very edge of this rain where totals could range from just enough to measure in the northwest metro to half an inch toward the Wisconsin border. And if this system edges eastward, we could see even less. Just another system that looked promising several days out that ends up bringing very little rain to the metro once it actually arrives. What is still in the cards, though, is 1-3" of rain across parts of southeastern Minnesota into Iowa and Wisconsin.

If you're heading out to your deer stand Saturday morning, expect temperatures in the 20s outside of the metro and parts of southeastern Minnesota that will be impacted by that system.

Again, we'll watch impacts from that system in eastern Minnesota on Saturday, with sunnier skies the farther west you go. Highs will range from the 30s in the Arrowhead to the low 50s in southwestern Minnesota.

So we'll keep an eye on that rain chance as we head through Saturday in the metro, though those rain chances will (no matter what) be on the decrease into the afternoon hours. Morning temperatures will start off in the mid-30s with highs in the mid-40s.

_______________________________________________

While a few showers may remain in the early morning hours up toward the Arrowhead, most of the state will be dry. A few clouds may linger in northern Minnesota during the day, otherwise, most other locations will see mainly sunny skies with only a few morning clouds quickly moving out. Highs will range from the 30s near the International Border to around 50F in southern Minnesota.

The elevated fire danger will expand as we head through Sunday due to the potential of strong wind gusts up to 40 mph and low humidity values. Many of these areas under the elevated fire danger will also miss out on the additional rain Friday Night into Saturday. The only hope is that the signal for some light rain Saturday Night in some of these areas pans out - if it does it could help to at least slightly lower the elevated fire danger.

Here's a look at those potential peak wind gusts on Sunday across the region. Winds will be out of the westerly direction gusting to up at least 40 mph in some locations. Not only will this contribute to the fire danger across the region, but it could also make it a little more tricky for those deer hunters out in the woods and fields looking for their prize of the season.

_______________________________________________

_______________________________________________

A Two-Year Dry Rut Deepens Over Minnesota
By Paul Douglas

"When the well's dry, we know the worth of water" wrote Benjamin Franklin. Floods are more devastating for homeowners, but droughts last longer, impacting almost every sector of the economy.

Exhibit A: our current dry spell began in July, 2020. It crept up on us gradually, intensifying and expanding like a meteorological virus. According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service, 23 of the last 28 months have been drier than average at MSP. The 28-month rainfall deficit in the Twin Cities is a whopping 20".

One storm, even a dozen storms, won't make that up. A snowy winter may help with lake and river water levels, but unless we get significant rain before the ground freezes solid, I see no way drought won't extend into 2023.

_______________________________________________

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: A cold rain. Wake up 38. High 43. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Windy with morning showers. Wake up 41. High 54. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 15-25 mph.

MONDAY: Some sun, less wind. Wake up 33. High 45. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Skies brighten, last 60-degree day? Wake up 55. High 68. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Few showers, windy and cooler. Wake up 39. High 46. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Wintry mix possible. Wake up 35. High 40. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 5th

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Daylight?: December 3rd (8 hours, 59 minutes, 4 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise: December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 5th-December 13th (4:31 PM)

_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
November 5th

1941: A snowstorm hits southern Minnesota, with the heaviest snow at Fairmont.

_______________________________________________

The system in the central/eastern United States could produce some areas of 3"+ of rain in the Mississippi Valley and Plains, with maybe an inch or two of snow on the back side of it. Meanwhile, the system in the Northwest will produce at least 3-5" of rain in coastal areas from northwest California to Washington, with feet of snow in the mountains.

_______________________________________________

These glaciers are on track to disappear within the next 30 years, new report shows

More from CNN: "The climate crisis is touching nearly every region of the world. But perhaps one of the most visible indicators of its impact is its effect on Earth's iconic glaciers, a major source of freshwater supply. Glaciers have been melting at a breakneck pace in recent decades, leading to around 20% of global sea level rise since 2000.Now researchers at the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization have found that glaciers in one-third of the planet's most beautiful parks and protected areas are set to disappear by 2050 – whether or not global warming is slowed. Among the glaciers on the brink of vanishing at World Heritage sites are those in two of the most visited and most beloved parks in the United States – Yellowstone National Park, which saw unprecedented flooding earlier this year, and Yosemite National Park."

Report: 90% of all U.S. coal plants are contaminating groundwater

White House releases net-zero road map

More from E&E News: "The White House announced a new initiative this morning to help reach net-zero emissions and promised to direct research and billions in federal dollars toward 37 "game-changing" energy technologies. The Net-Zero Game Changers Initiative, as it's known, is led by a working group of 17 agencies, chaired by President Joe Biden's climate advisers. The administration also released a new road map identifying five initial key areas for energy research and development to reach net zero by 2050: power grids, aviation, fusion energy, efficient buildings and net-zero fuels and industrial products. Ramping up federal work in those five areas could yield climate jobs and environmental justice benefits and improve the country's energy security, according to the administration."

_______________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser