Significant Drop in Temps & Humidity

A frontal boundary moved through last, which helped to push the hot and humid weather farther south. In its wake much cooler and less humid air will settle in for the rest of the week. Dewpoints were in the upper 60s to near 70F on Tuesday and will drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday. Note that for every 20F drop in dewpoint temps, there is half as much as water in the atmosphere, so it'll be a significant difference.

Daily Max Dewpoint Forecast

Here's the max dewpoint for Minneapolis over the next few days. Keep in mind that the highest dewpoint readings on Wednesday will be just after Midnight and will fall into the 40s through the end of the week.

Cooling Down Late Next Week

Here's the 850mb temp anomaly from Wednesday to Friday, which shows the warm weather that we had in place on Tuesday being replaced by cooler than average temps through the rest of the week.

Extended Temperature Outlook

Here's the NBM extended temperature forecast for Minneapolis, which shows much cooler temps in place over the next several days with highs only warming into the 60s and 70s.

Fall Color Update

It's that time of the year again for fall colors and the MN DNR has their fall color finder up and running. Much of the state is still color free, but there are a few colors popping up here and there.

Average Fall Color

The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!

Average First Frost For MSP

Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.

First Measurable Snow at MSP

Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.

Mix of Sunshine & Spotty T-Storms

Here's the weather outlook from AM Wednesday to AM Monday. Weather conditions should be fairly quiet over the next several days, but there is a slight chance of rain late week. Stay tuned.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows another round of rain moving in across the western part of the state later in the week. There could be some 0.50" tallies - stay tuned.

Minnesota Drought Update

Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. As of September 13th, we still have a sliver of moderate and severe drought conditions stretching from the Twin Cities Metro to the Minnesota River Valley.

Weather Outlook on Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows much cooler temps in place across the region with highs only warming into the 50s and 60s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for this time of the year.

Weather Outlook Wednesday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows dry and much cooler temps in place with highs only warming into the mid/upper 60s.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps starting in the upper 50s in the morning with highs only warming into the mid 60s by the afternoon. Skies will generally by sunny with gusty northwesterly winds up to 25mph

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much cooler temps in place through the rest of the week with highs generally runny at or below average through the weekend.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows temperature running well below average through the end of the week. There could be a few showers on Friday with highs struggling to get to 60F in the metro.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF extended temperature outlook, much cooler weather will be in place through the 2nd half of the month. Some days may not even warm into the 50s.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the nation and especially across the Plains.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place across across the Midwest and Central US.

"Turks and Caicos under shelter-in-place order as Hurricane Fiona slams islands after leaving 5 dead across the Caribbean"

"Hurricane Fiona battered the Turks and Caicos islands most of Tuesday with hurricane-force winds, torrential rain and up to 4 feet of storm surge, prompting officials to urge residents to stay indoors. In its devastating path of destruction, the storm killed at least five people across the Caribbean, cut power and water service for most of Puerto Rico's 3.1 million residents and left more than 1 million without running water in the Dominican Republic. Officials in the Turks and Caicos announced Tuesday afternoon that a shelter-in-place advisory remained in effect amid heavy winds and rain, adding those conditions were expected to last for several more hours."

See more from CNN HERE:

Tracking Fiona

Here's a view of Hurricane Fiona from PM Tuesday, which was a major category 3 storm with 115mph winds. Fiona caused catastrophic damage and flooding in Puerto Rico over the weekend and earlier this week. Unfortunately, Fiona is expected to strengthen into a category 4 storm with 140mph winds through the end of the week.

Tropical Alerts

Tropical Alerts continue from the Turks and Caicos to Bermuda and Hurricane Fiona continues to track north.

Tracking Fiona

Here's the track of Hurricane Fiona as it drifts north through the rest of the week. Note that Fiona could strengthen to a category 4 as it approaches Bermuda on Friday. Fiona could still be a hurricane as it approaches Nova Scotia this weekend with an intense storm still in place over eastern Canada into early next week.

So This Is What Fall Feels Like
By Paul Douglas

After a lousy April we did, in fact, salvage areal summer, with above-average temperatures and a generous supply of sunshine. All those blue-sky days accelerated drought over southern counties, but with any luck a parade of October storms will replenish some of that water. MSP went 116 consecutive days with daytime highs of 70+. That's a record.

Today will feel like fall with a stiff northwest wind confining daytime highs to the 60s. Closer to average for late September. Sweatshirt weather lingers into Friday, when a few showers may kick up, but not enough rain to make a dent in our drought. I see 70s Saturday and a few days next week. Not packing away the shorts just yet.

One thing I've learned over 45 years of tracking hurricanes most of the misery, dislocation and death comes days and weeks AFTER a storm hits. "Fiona" has left millions without power and water in Puerto Rico. This, from a Category 1 storm.

European model guidance predicts a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. Stay tuned.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, windy. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 66.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cool. Winds: NNW 5-10. Low: 51.

THURSDAY: Cool, comfortable sunshine. Winds: N 10-20. High: 63.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, few PM showers. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 60.

SATURDAY: Some sun, milder. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 52. High: 73.

SUNDAY: Sunnier with a cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 56. High: 68.

MONDAY: Blue sky, pleasant. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 50. High: 72.

TUESDAY: Sunny, perfect September weather. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 52. High: 70.

This Day in Weather History

September 21st

2005: An unusually intense late season severe weather event affects parts of central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during the late afternoon and evening hours. Baseball-sized hail, damaging thunderstorm winds, and tornadoes result from several supercell thunderstorms. The most widespread damage occurs across the northern and eastern portions of the Twin Cities. Three tornadoes rake across parts of Anoka and northern Hennepin counties, including an F2, but the tornado damage is overshadowed by the widespread extreme wind damage associated with the rear flank downdraft of the supercell. In addition to the severe weather, many locations received substantial amounts of rain. Many streets and underpasses in the northern Twin Cities metro area were flooded Wednesday night, where radar precipitation estimates were in excess of 3 inches.

1994: 1/2 inch hail in Blue Earth County results in $6 million in crop damages.

1924: Very strong winds occur in Duluth, with a peak gust of 64 mph.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 21st

Average High: 71F (Record: 94F set in 1937)

Average Low: 52F (Record: 32F set in 1974)

Record Rainfall: 2.07" set in 1986

Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1995, 2010, 2016

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

September 21st

Sunrise: 6:59am

Sunset: 7:12pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 13 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 25 minutes

Moon Phase for September 21st at Midnight

3.6 Days Before New Moon

National High Temps Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well above average temperatures across the Central and Eastern US, where record highs will be possible. There could be strong to severe storms in the Eastern Great Lakes and also through the Intermountain-West. Meanwhile, cooler temps will settle in across the Midwest.

National Weather Outlook Wednesday

Showers and storms will move through the Eastern Great Lakes and into the Northeast with lingering showers and storms through the Intermountain-West.

National Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through Thursday, which shows storms pushing through the Northeast, some of which could be strong to severe. There will also be another round of heavier t-storms across the Intermountain-West.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, There will be areas of unsettled weather across the nation. Some of the heaviest precipitation will be across the Intermountain-West. There will also be some heavier amounts in the Northeast.

Climate Stories

"We're careening into 'uncharted territory of destruction,' WMO climate report says"

"The science is unequivocal: we are going in the wrong direction" when it comes to addressing climate change, a new report from the World Meteorological Organization says. This year's planet-heating pollution has risen above pre-pandemic levels. All over the world, people are already facing dire consequences from the 1.2 degrees of global warming human activity has caused since the industrial revolution. "Heatwaves in Europe. Colossal floods in Pakistan. Prolonged and severe droughts in China, the Horn of Africa and the United States. They are the price of humanity's fossil fuel addiction," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a press release and accompanying video today."

See more from The Verge HERE:

"Better Atmospheric River Forecasts Are Giving Emergency Planners More Time to Prepare for Flooding"

"I was eating breakfast on a Monday morning at Sears Fine Food in downtown San Francisco, casually watching the local five-day weather forecast on a television screen behind the counter. A little symbol along the bottom showed a happy-looking sun for the rest of the day. Wednesday had a friendly-looking cloud and a few raindrops, and Thursday had a dark, threatening cloud with heavier drops. I knew Thursday's conditions would be much rougher than the symbol conveyed. I had been studying detailed satellite data and weather models, and they indicated that a major atmospheric river (AR) was likely to hit the city. The symbol was completely inadequate for communicating the threat of the approaching storm."

See more from Bloomberg HERE:

"A modern Johnny Appleseed: Meet the Seattle drone startup replanting forests after wildfires"

A swarm of giant drones navigates a scorched moonscape, tracing the rugged topography. The scene has a desolate, sci-fi vibe — but its reality is rooted in the terra firma. The devices belong to DroneSeed, a Seattle startup deploying technology to help restore some of the millions of acres of forests that have burned in wildfires across the U.S. and beyond. The conflagrations include fires so intense that they don't leave any live trees to provide new seeds or seeds in the soil, and so massive that they create barren islands far from seed sources. Left alone, the burns could sit as treeless grass or shrubland for years. As another devastating wildfire season (hopefully) winds down, the company will be dispersing seeds this fall and spring over hundreds of acres in Washington, Oregon, California and Montana.

See more from Geek Wire HERE:

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