Smoky Skies on Sunday
Skies on Sunday where sunny, but were hazy due to wildfires burning in Canada. At times, the air did smell a bit smoky, but air qualities remained in the moderate levels. Below is a satellite loop around midday Sunday and you can see the hazy smoke layer drifting south into Minnesota from Ontario Canada.
Smoke Analysis on Monday Around Midday
Here is NOAA's HRRR smoke analysis forecast for midday Monday and note the brighter red areas across the Western US and into the Midwest, this is where hazy/smoky skies will be found once again. Sunrise & sunsets will appear quite red/orange in these areas.
"U.S. climate summary for June 2021: hottest June on record"
"The June contiguous U.S. temperature was 72.6°F, 4.2°F above the 20th-century average, ranking warmest in the 127-year record and surpassing the previous record for June set in 2016 by 0.9°F. The year-to-date average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 49.3°F, 1.7°F above the 20th-century average, ranking in the warmest third of the January-June record. The June precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 2.93 inches, exactly average. Averaged over the first six months of the year, the precipitation total for January-June was 14.64 inches, 0.67 inch below average, ranking in the driest third of the record."
"(8) Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters So Far in 2021"
"In 2021 (as of July 9), there have been 8 weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect the United States. These events included 1 drought event, 2 flooding events, 4 severe storm events, and 1 winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 331 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2020 annual average is 7.1 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2016–2020) is 16.2 events (CPI-adjusted)."
Minnesota Drought Update
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 40% of the state is now considered to be in a severe drought, which has increased from 11% last week. Also, nearly 93% of the state is included in a moderate drought (including the Twin Cities), which has increased from 82% last week. Last year at this time, only 5% of the state was in a severe drought and 25% was in a moderate drought.
Precipitation Departure From Average (Since Jan. 1st)
Take a look at the precipitation deficits around the region and since the beginning of the year, many locations are running several inches below average, including the Twin Cities. Below are a list of cities and their precipitation deficits so far this year and the rank of how dry the January 1st to July 9th has been.
Minneapolis: -3.65" (50th Driest Start)
St. Cloud: -1.92" (50th Driest Start)
Duluth: -4.40" (22nd Driest Start)
International Falls: -5.26" (12th Driest Start)
Rochester: -6.24" (31st Driest Start)
Fargo: -5.79" (15th Driest Start)
Grand Forks: -4.49" (12th Driest Start)
Sioux Falls: -4.73" (23rd Driest Start)
Madison: -7.78" (17th Driest Start)
Milwaukee: -8.35" (3rd Driest Start)
Minot: -5.86 (3rd Driest Start)
Bismarck: -4.39" (11th Driest Start)
Pierre: -5.97" (10th Driest Start)
Simulated Radar Through Wednesday
Here's the simulated radar through midweek, which shows dry conditions in place on Monday, but more unsettled weather moves in late Tuesday into Wednesday. Some of the scattered showers and storms could produce locally heavy rains across parts of the region, which would be good news since we need the rain!
Precipitation Potential Through Friday
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the week ahead could feature decent rainfall tallies across parts of southern MN, where some 1" to 2" + tallies maybe possible. Northern Minnesota will also have a chance at rain, but tallies maybe a little less impressive.
Monday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday shows dry, mild and mostly sunny conditions in place with highs warming into the mid 80s, which will be close to average for mid July.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Monday shows temps warming from the mid 60s in the morning to the mid 80s in the afternoon under a mostly sunny sky. Winds will be out of the SE around 10-15mph through the day.
Regional Weather Outlook for Monday
The weather outlook across the region on Monday shows fairly decent weather place for many locations. Mostly sunny, dry and mild weather in place across the rest of the region. In fact, temps across the northern half of the state will warm into the mid/upper 80s to low 90s, which will be nearly +10F above average.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows temps warming to near average levels on Sunday and Monday with above average temps once again through the rest of the week. Some of the days in the week ahead could reach near 90F. Keep in mind that our next best chance of showers and storms will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday with some decent rainfall potential for some across the central and southern part of the state. Stay tuned.
Weather Outlook Through PM Monday
Here's the extended weather outlook from AM Monday to AM Friday. Monday will remain dry and mostly sunny weather in place across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, another storm system will slide through the region with decent rain chances closer to home.
Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Tuesday
Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Tuesday across the Midwest, which shows the heaviest rains staying south and east of us across the Ohio Valley.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of the western US and across the northern tier of the nation. Meanwhile, areas in the Southern and Southeastern US will be below average.
Smoke Gets In Your Eyes - And Skies
By Paul Douglas
Scientists believe the western US is in a natural 1200 year "mega-drought". Coupled with man-made warming, this has created a much drier climate and a hyperactive fire season.
2020 was the worst year on record for wildfires in California and much of the western US, and drought conditions continue to worsen, with water shortages impacting electrical generation.
Sadly, what happens in Vegas doesn't stay in Vegas. Smoke from western fires, including British Columbia, are pumping prodigious amounts of smoke into the upper atmosphere, pushed east by prevailing jet stream winds. For much of the summer and fall our otherwise blue skies maybe tainted with a dirty, hazy pall of orange from flames a thousand miles away. Everything is interconnected.
The best chance of showers and T-storms this week comes Wednesday, followed by a sunny weekend.
NOAA's weather models predict a string of 90s after July 19. The second half of our hot weather Olympics kicks off in a week. Enjoy 80s, an unlikely "intermission".
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Smoky sunshine. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 84.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: ESE 5-10. Low: 64.
TUESDAY: Hazy sunshine, seasonably warm. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 85.
WEDNESDAY: Showers and T-storms, some heavy. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High: 81.
THURSDAY: Unsettled, another shower or T-shower. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 66. High: 79.
FRIDAY: Intervals of sunshine. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 82.
SATURDAY: More sunshine, sticky breeze. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High: 85.
SUNDAY: Plenty of sunshine, still humid. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 67 High: 86.
This Day in Weather History
July 12th
1863: Unseasonably cool temperatures are felt across the state. Frost is reported in the Twin Cities area.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 12th
Average High: 84F (Record: 106F set in 1936)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 48F set in 1941)
Record Rainfall: 2.93" set in 1912
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 12th
Sunrise: 5:38am
Sunset: 8:58pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 20 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 27 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~17 Minutes
Moon Phase for July 12th at Midnight
3.2 Days Since New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
Venus and Mars orbit the sun on either side of Earth. But, in the July evening sky, Venus outshines Mars by about 200 times. So you might look west after sunset now … and overlook Mars at first. Watch for Mars. It's in conjunction with Venus this month. The exact time of the conjunction is July 13, 2021, at about 7 UTC. At that time, Venus will pass 1/2 degree north of Mars on our sky's dome, or about one moon-diameter. Do you have binoculars? Any ordinary binoculars will show Venus and Mars in the same field of view at their closest. Depending on where you live worldwide, Venus and Mars will be closest together in the evening sky on July 12 or July 13.
National High Temps Monday
The weather outlook on Monday shows cooler temps across parts of the Central US, where temps will be nearly -5F to -10F below average. Meanwhile folks in the Western US will be running above average once again with dangerous and record heat possible.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook into early next week shows a slow moving storm system sliding east of the Mississippi River Valley with areas of showers and storms could be a little on the strong side with locally heavy rains.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across parts of the Central US. Areas of heavy rain will still be possible across parts of the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. There will also be areas of heavy rain in the Desert Southwest where monsoon storms will develop.
Climate Stories
"Reservoirs are drying up as consequences of the Western drought worsen"
"Reservoir levels are dropping throughout the West, as the drought tightens its grip on the region and intense summer heat further stresses both water supply and the surrounding landscape. Many reservoirs are at or approaching historic low levels due to lackluster rainy seasons combined with increasing temperatures due to climate change. The drought crisis is perhaps most apparent in the Colorado River basin, which saw one of its driest years on record, following two decades of less-than-adequate flows. The nation's largest reservoir, Lake Mead near Las Vegas, is at its lowest level since the lake filled after the construction of the Hoover dam in the 1930s; it currently sits at 1,069 feet above sea level, or 35 percent of its total capacity. It supplies water to Arizona, Nevada, California and Mexico. Further upstream, Lake Powell, which feeds Lake Mead, is at only 34 percent of its total capacity. By next spring, Lake Powell is projected to hit its lowest level since it was filled in 1964, possibly jeopardizing its ability to generate power."
See more from The Washington Post HERE:
"After Hottest June Ever, U.S. Braces for New Heatwave in West"
"Western states are bracing for more scorching weather this weekend after the hottest month of June on record in the United States killed scores of people, strained electric grids and depleted reservoirs. The National Weather Service has issued an excessive heat warning for much of the West through Monday evening, predicting "dangerously hot conditions" including temperatures up to 130 degrees Fahrenheit (54 degrees Celsius) in Death Valley, California. Temperatures are expected to soar above 100 degrees F (40 degrees C) in multiple states. "Long standing record high temperature values are likely to be rivaled or broken," the weather service said, warning of the elevated risk of heat-related illnesses. The extended heatwave, which coincides with a record-setting drought, has already killed at least 116 people in Oregon alone, the state medical examiner said. The extremes in the Pacific Northwest would have been "virtually impossible" without human-caused climate change, according to a study by World Weather Attribution, a collaboration of climate scientists around the world."
"Narwhal Tusks Point to Changing Arctic Conditions"
"Narwhal tusks record decades of environmental information and clearly show a changing Arctic, researchers reported in Current Biology. Every year the spiraling tusks grow another layer, incorporating variants of carbon and nitrogen called isotopes and some of the mercury a narwhal consumes. The researchers bought 10 tusks from Inuit subsistence hunters in northwestern Greenland and found that the objects contained nearly 50 years' worth of information. Having access to such a long stretch of data "was just an amazing step forward in our understanding of the factors that affect things like diet and mercury [levels]," says lead author and McGill University marine biologist Jean-Pierre Desforges. The researchers sliced open the whale tusks (which are actually teeth, made of dentine), ground parts of them into powder and analyzed the samples' isotope content. The results indicate where and what a narwhal might have eaten, as well as its exposure to mercury—a potent toxin whose accumulation affects animals' immune and reproductive systems."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
