It's been one of the most quoted economic statistics in Minnesota public life, cited by a chorus of business, education and political leaders since the recession.
By 2018, 70 percent of jobs in the state will require postsecondary education.
The projection gained currency at the State Capitol and bolsters the argument that Minnesota suffers from a skills gap that leaves employers unable to fill jobs because workers aren't prepared for them.
But five years after the claim surfaced in a report from Georgetown University, it isn't coming true.
The share of jobs that require training beyond high school in Minnesota is growing only moderately, and the share of open jobs today that require postsecondary education is actually shrinking.
"We've got a lot of ground to make up if we're going to get to 70 percent," said Steve Hine, a state labor market economist. "Anybody that's familiar with the dynamics of our labor markets ought to recognize that as being pure fantasy."
No one disputes that education, including professional certifications and associate degrees, pays dividends in the job market.
But low-skill occupations still dominate the job market in Minnesota and in the United States. Only 35 percent of jobs in Minnesota require more than a high school diploma and only 33 percent of jobs nationally, according to a Star Tribune analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data.