Increasing Snow Potential Friday
Active weather in the Pacific Northwest will lead to snowfall potential closer to home on Friday. It is still too early to tell where the heaviest snow will set up, but over the last few days we've seen a trend shifting west. Stay tuned...
Snowfall Potential Through PM Friday
Here's NOAA's NDFD snowfall potential through PM Friday. Latest model runs are showing a fairly heavy band of snow across western MN and the eastern Dakotas with some plowable amounts. The Twin Cities could see some snow, but at this point, it looks a little lighter.
Assessing the U.S. Climate in 2021
"Contiguous U.S. ranked fourth warmest during 2021; 20 billion-dollar disasters identified. For 2021, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 54.5°F, 2.5°F above the 20th-century average and ranked as the fourth-warmest year in the 127-year period of record. The six warmest years on record have all occurred since 2012. The December contiguous U.S. temperature was 39.3°F, 6.7°F above average and exceeded the previous record set in December 2015. There were 20 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2021, just two events shy of the record set in 2020. These events caused at least 688 fatalities and scores more injured. Two disasters occurred in December — the Southeast, Central Tornado Outbreak and the Midwest Derecho and Tornado Outbreak. The annual precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 30.48 inches, 0.54 inch above average, ranking in the middle third of the historical record. Despite near-normal precipitation at the national scale, 2021 witnessed several significant events at the regional scale, including an above-average monsoon season across the Southwest and several atmospheric river events along the Pacific Coast. Drought remained extensive across much of the western U.S. throughout 2021."
Snow Depth
The latest snow depth reports show a fairly decent base across the region. The Metro was reporting around 4", but has you head north, there are some double digit reports. According to the MN DNR Snowmobile and cross-country ski trails are generally reported to be in good to very good conditions across the northern half of the state. Trails in the southern half of the state are reported to poor condition with little to now snow on the ground there.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
Here's a look at how much snow we've seen so far this season. Note the Twin Cities has seen nearly 25", which is nearly +3.0" above average. Grand Forks, ND has seen nearly 40" of snow, which is more than 1ft above average! Heading south into South Dakota, many locations there are below average and more than 1ft below average in Pierre and Huron.
Warmer End of Week, Then Chillier Weekend
Here's the 850mb temp anomaly through the weekend. Note that temps will be 'warmer' through the second half of the week, but will be a bit cooler over the weekend.
Wednesday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows milder temps in place as high temps approach the freezing mark (32F). There is also a weak piece of energy that could stir up a few flurries in the morning, but little to no accumulations is expected.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday show temps starting in the mid 20s with highs approaching the freezing mark (32F) by the afternoon. Again, there is a slight chance of flurries in the morning with more sunshine expected during the afternoon.
Wind Chill Values Wednesday
Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday don't appear to be all that cold. In fact, feels like temps will won't be in the sub-zero range like there were over the past several days. It'll feel like a heat wave.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
High temps across the region on Wednesday show readings warming into the 20s and 30s across much of the state. There will be a few spots across the international border only warming into the teens, but the southwestern part of the state could warm to near 40F! With that being said, temps will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for mid January.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps running above average through the end of the week. There is a better chance of light snow on Friday (mainly west of the metro) with slightly cooler temperature readings expected on Saturday.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather forecast through the upcoming weekend show temps gradually cooling into the weekend. There could be a few morning flakes on Wednesday, but there is a better chance of snow on Friday with slightly below average temps by the weekend and early next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temperatures will be warmer for the 2nd half of the week, but appear to turn colder during the 2nd half of the month. According to the GFS, it appears that highs will drop back into the single digits with sub-zero low temperatures expected as well.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows below average temps across the Eastern US and especially around the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Warmer than average temperatures will be in place across the Western US and Alaska
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, drier weather will be in place across the West Coast in mid January, while more active weather will be possible along and east of the Rockies.
Average Number of Subzero Nights This Winter?
By Paul Douglas
This last week has been a vivid reminder of Minnesota's democratic, non-partisan cold weather tax. Your honor, I would argue that our summers more than make up for any temperature deficiencies during January, Minnesota's coldest month of the year.
A few observations. MSP has enjoyed 7 subzero nights this winter. The 1981-2010 average for an entire winter in the Twin Cities is 23 nights. Within a week, average temperatures start to rise again, for the first time in 6 months. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. Caveat: it's a very long tunnel.
I'm always amazed how good 30s feel after a run of subzero nights. A well-earned thaw lingers into Thursday, and Friday's clipper-like system may drop a couple inches of snow in the metro, with plowable amounts over southwestern Minnesota.
A mild start to next week gives way to another polar punch after January 18, with another 1-2 weeks of subzero fun the latter half of January.
Odds favor a milder February. Then again I am a hopelessly naive optimist.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Some sun, few flakes. Winds: N 5-10. High: 33.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 23.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with flurries. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 23. High: 32.
FRIDAY: Light snow, plowable southwest MN? Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 14. High: 17.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and chilly. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 1. High: 19.
SUNDAY: More clouds and flurries. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 12. High: 32.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 23. High: 30.
TUESDAY: Some sun. Last mild day in sight. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 25. High: 33.
This Day in Weather History
January 12th
2000: Snow falls in a narrow band over the Twin Cities. Maplewood receives 5.5 inches, while Chanhassen gets 12.
1888: The infamous 'Blizzard of '88' occurs. It hit during a mild day when many children were heading home from school. They made up the majority of the 200 people that died. At the end of the storm the thermometer at St. Paul read -37.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 12th
Average High: 23F (Record: 48F set in 1987)
Average Low: 7F (Record: -31F set in 1912)
Record Rainfall: 0.70 set in 1935
Record Snowfall: 8.7" set in 2000
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 12th
Sunrise: 7:48am
Sunset: 4:54pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 5 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 36 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 19 minutes
Moon Phase for January 12th at Midnight
3.5 Days Since First Quarter Moon
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows much warmer air in place across the western two-thirds of the nation. Some folks in the Desert Southwest will warm into the 80s!
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through the end of the week, shows slightly more active weather across the northern tier of the nation with areas of rain and snow. The heaviest precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be possible in the Pacific Northwest. There will be a strip of decent precipitation across the Central US with some very heavy precipitation along and east of the East Coast.
Extended Snowfall Potential
Here's the extended snowfall potential as we head through mid January. Areas of heavy snow will be possible across the Canadian Rockies, parts of the Midwest and also along the Appalachian Mountain Range.
Climate Stories
"Fusion energy is a reason to be excited about the future"
"It's been a long road, but recent advances mean we're closing in on a game-changing technology. Fusion energy is perhaps the longest of long shots. To build a fusion reactor is essentially to create an artificial star. Scientists have been studying the physics of fusion for a century and working to harness the process for decades. Yet almost every time researchers make an advance, the goal posts seem to recede even farther in the distance. Still, the enormous potential of fusion makes it hard to ignore. It's a technology that could safely provide an immense and steady torrent of electricity, harnessing abundant fuel made from seawater to ignite the same reaction that powers the sun. It would produce no greenhouse gases and minimal waste compared to conventional energy sources."
"Bizarre cloud of gas is one of the longest structures in the Milky Way"
"Astronomers have discovered what may be the longest structure in the Milky Way: an unusual cloud of hydrogen. The gigantic structure, which is more than 3,900 light-years long and around 150 light-years wide, is located roughly 55,000 light-years away from the solar system, according to a statement by researchers. (Previously, the largest known clouds of gas in the Milky Way were thought to be about 800 light-years across.) The team named the lengthy cloud "Maggie," which is short for the Magdalena River, the longest river in Colombia. Astronomers discovered the cloud as part of The HI/OH/Recombination line survey of the Milky Way (THOR). The survey, which relies on data collected by the radio observatory called the Jansky Very Large Array in New Mexico, looks for objects outside the main plane of the Milky Way, which is the flattened disk where most matter in the galaxy is found. Because Maggie is located outside that plane, the structure was much easier to spot than it normally would have been."
See more from Live Science HERE:
"How Explosives, a Robot, and a Sled Expose a Doomsday Glacier"
"TWO DECEMBERS AGO, Erin Pettit layered up, slapped on goggles, cued up an audio book, and went on a hike—across Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. Behind her, she dragged a sled loaded with a ground-penetrating radar, which fired pulses through a thousand feet of ice and analyzed the radio waves that bounced off the seawater below, thus building a detailed image of the glacier beneath her feet. Pettit—a glaciologist and climate scientist at Oregon State University—hiked alone through the snow, sometimes eschewing headphones for the absolute auditory stillness of the most remote landscape on Earth. "It was actually kind of an amazing, meditative field season," she says, "I just bundled up, I went out there and pulled my sled, and just walked for miles and miles."
