The Wild enters Sunday with around a 50% chance of making the playoffs according to various probability sites, which leads to this week's question: What is the value of making the postseason as a low seed vs. missing out and being in the draft lottery?
First take: Michael Rand
There is a certain segment of Wild fandom that is annoyed by the team's recent improved play, which has moved Minnesota into the mix for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference. They'd rather have the team bottom out for a better pick.
But here's the deal: Given the Wild's position in the standings, the likelihood of moving up into the top three in the draft via the lottery — if Minnesota misses the playoffs — is slim (around 10%, depending on its exact out-of-the-playoffs finish).
Sportsnet did an interesting valuation of draft picks a few years back. The difference between, say, the Nos. 13 and 17 pick isn't that big.
Also, just getting into the postseason in the NHL brings a real chance for an upset. Just last year, all four wild-card teams won over higher-seeded teams in the first round.
Sarah McLellan: The parity in the NHL in recent years has certainly closed the gap between teams that advance through their division and those that snag wild-card invites.
This format change, which went into effect in 2014, just doesn't have the same feel as the old No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchups where it seemed inevitable the top seed would prevail. Now, who has the upper hand isn't as clear cut. In some cases, it could be argued a wild-card team has the edge because it's been playing playoff hockey for months trying to lock down a spot — whereas the higher seed could be trying to shift out of cruise control.
But progress in the present can be at odds with success in the future. It's so much tougher these days for GMs to make impactful changes in free agency and through trades. Star power is usually drafted. And that reality can force teams to choose between long-term hope and a pipe dream that while unpredictable could also culminate in the Stanley Cup they're chasing.
Rand: Indeed, for all the good players the Wild has had the biggest star in franchise history is still probably Marian Gaborik. He also remains the franchise's highest pick (No. 3 in 2000).
But for fans who want the Wild to miss the playoffs to get a better pick: At this point, the difference in the pick between making and missing the postseason is likely pretty negligible. Might as well get in and take your shot. It helps that the Wild likely has a top-three-caliber player coming in already next season with Kirill Kaprizov.
McLellan: Players and coaches are also hard-wired to compete. They are not strategizing about draft picks and lottery odds in the middle of a game. They are trying to win, and it's clear that's the Wild's focus — even amid the turnover the past month.
It's been a very businesslike approach for players, despite losing Jason Zucker and Bruce Boudreau getting fired. Time will tell if they actually catch up to a playoff spot, but that's their mission — not bettering draft positioning.
Rand: Maybe fans would do well to just sit back and enjoy the rest of the season as much as they can?
McLellan: If they do, they will probably watch an entertaining push to the finish line based on how the Wild's season has gone so far.
