MUCH Colder Weather Ahead
The 850mb temp anomaly through the week ahead shows chilly temps in place over the next several days. However, the 2nd half of the week looks to be warmer with highs nearing 70F once again by the weekend.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month. Note that readings will be very chilly through the first half of the week with a gradual warming trend by the weekend. We could be near 70F again this weekend before another cool snap arrives for the last full week of October.
Fall Color Update
Here's the fall color update for Minnesota & Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking or past peak in many spots across the central and northern half of Minnesota. Colors are peaking across the southern half of Minnesota and into much of Wisconsin.
See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
What Causes Fall Colors?
The chemicals - Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall: Chlorophyll, Carotenoids, Anthocyanins, Tannins. Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
How Does Weather Affect Fall Color?
Another Mostly Dry Week Ahead
The weather outlook through AM Saturday looks fairly quiet with minimal precipitation chances in the Upper Midwest. An area of low pressure will meander over the Great Lakes through midweek, which will keep our weather rather stagnant and dry closer to home. A clipper will push through northern Minnesota late week, but the best rain chances will be up north.
Precipitation Chances
Here's the extended precipitation potential through the week ahead, which looks mostly dry. The best chance of rain will be in the Arrowhead with generally less than 0.10" rain possible.
Severe Drought Continues in the Metro
According to the US Drought Monitor (updated October 11th) there is now a sliver of Extreme drought from the Twin Cities to Southwestern MN. This is an area that is well below average precipitation for the year.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Since January 1st, the Twin Cities is more than -9.00" below average precipitation, which is the 20th driest start to any year on record at the MSP Airport. Meanwhile, International Falls is more than +10" above average, which is the 2nd wettest start to any year on record.
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Record Cold Highs Possible Monday
Monday's high temps will be nearly -20F to -25F below average in spots with record cold high temps possible for some. The circled numbers are the possible record cold highs for Monday.
Weather Outlook on Monday
Temperatures on Monday will be very chilly for mid October with temps running nearly -15F to -25F below average across the state. Highs will only warm into the 30s for most locations, which will feel more like late November.
Weather Outlook Monday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Monday shows temps warming into the mid 30s, which is well below average for this time of the year. Winds will be breezy out of the north, which will also make it feel more like the 10s and 20s through the day.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Monday shows temps starting in the mid/upper 20s in the morning and warming into the mid 30s by the afternoon. Partly cloudy skies will be in place with gusty north winds around 30mph at times.
Hourly Feels Like Temps on Monday
The hourly feels like temperature for Minneapolis on Monday will be quite chilly with readings in the 10s and 20s for much of the day. Make sure you have the heavy coats - you'll need it!
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows a gradual warming trend through the week. Monday will be the coldest day with highs only warming into the 30s. We'll get closer to average on Thursday and possibly above average by Friday with highs back in the 60s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows cold temps in place through the first half of the week with a gradual warming trend to near average temps by Thursday. Above average readings return Friday and into the weekend with highs possibly in the 70s.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the western half of the nation, while warmer than average temps will set up in the eastern half of the nation.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather setting up across much of the nation. This will be a change from the most dry weather that we've been experiencing over the last several weeks.
Wintry Winds Today - Near 70 This Weekend
By Paul Douglas
My wife and I are terrible fans. To lower the risk of panic attacks and a fountain of expletives we tape our alma mater's football games. If they win - we watch. If they don't win - DELETE ALL. Not proud of this but I consider it a coping skill.
Minnesota weather is a full-contact sport. We all run our routes and get sidelined by snow & ice. For the next 6 months the goal is to avoid injuries. If only we could fast-forward to the good parts. Like this weekend when daytime highs may flirt with 70 degrees! Now that we've experienced the first frost we can call it Indian Summer.
But first a little wintry pain today, more typical of late November. Today's predicted high of 37F at MSP is the normal high for November 25. Wind chills dip into the teens this morning. It's too early to be dressing in layers but I suggest you give it a try today. Weather mellows as the week goes on. No rain (or snow) until next week.
Election Day is near. Has anyone ever changed their mind based on a yard sign? Asking for a friend.
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Clouds, feels like teens. Winds: N 15-25. High: 37.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear & cold. Winds: WNW 10. Low: 26.
TUESDAY: Hard freeze. Blue sky - chilly. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 42.
WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sun, less wind. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 27. High: 46.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, not so bad. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 35. High: 53.
FRIDAY: Plenty of sun, abandon jackets. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 44. High: 65.
SATURDAY: Indian Summer. Sunny, milder breeze. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 40. High: 70.
SUNDAY: Fading sun, nighttime showers? Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 57. High: 71.
This Day in Weather History
October 17th
1971: Heavy rain falls in NW Minnesota. 4.02 inches is recorded at Georgetown (20 miles N of Moorhead).
1952: Record lows between 10 to 15 degrees are reported across central Minnesota, including a low of 10 at St. Cloud, 12 at Glenwood, and 14 at Alexandria, Litchfield, and Mora.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 17th
Average High: 58F (Record: 84F set in 1910)
Average Low: 40F (Record: 22F set in 1948 & 1952)
Record Rainfall: 1.24" set in 1879
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1933, 1990 & 2004
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 17th
Sunrise: 7:31am
Sunset: 6:25pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 53 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 0 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 46 minutes
Moon Phase for October 17th at Midnight
0.6 Day After Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps Monday
The weather outlook on Monday shows above average temperatures in place across the Pacific Northwest with sunshine. A lobe of much cooler than average temps will set up in the Midwest/Great Lakes, where record cold highs temps can't be ruled out.
National Weather Outlook Monday
Another cold front will push through the eastern and southern US with much cooler temps and lower humidity. Lingering showers and storms will be possible along the front with areas of rain and snow possible in the Great Lakes.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through the early week time frame shows a few t-storms along a cool front that will move through the Southern and Eastern US. Areas of rain and snow will continue in the Great Lakes, but dry weather continues in the Western US.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rain will be possible downwind of the Great Lakes, some of which will fall in the form of snow. There will also be some decent precipitation in the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest late in the forecast period.
Snowfall Potential
Areas of heavy snowfall will be possible in the Great Lakes Region through the early week time frame. There will also be some decent snowfall potential in the Western half of the nation as we get closer to the last
Climate Stories
"You Can Thank Earth for Being a Giant Magnet, Otherwise We Wouldn't Exist"
"Earth formed a molten iron core. Its movement generates electricity, leading to planet-wide magnetic orientation. Scientists can track the magnetic history of our planet in cooled lava rocks. Since our magnetism deflects the sun's radiation, it allows life to exist on Earth. Our planet is one giant magnet, about 8,000 miles across. The magnetic force—an electric interplay between magnetically charged metals in Earth's core—extends outward into space for thousands of miles. This magnetosphere blocks powerful solar radiation that would otherwise destroy our atmosphere and life on the planet. In fact, solar winds actually blow the magnetic envelope away from Earth in a tail shape."
See more from Popular Mechanic HERE:
"Super-Dry California Is Set to Approve a $140 Million Water Desalination Plant"
"California regulators are likely to approve a new water desalination plant today as state officials look for solutions to ongoing water shortages, as the state struggles through its worst drought in over 1,000 years. The California Coastal Commission is set to vote on the $140 million proposed desalination plant that was suggested for South Orange County at Doheny State Beach, NBC Los Angeles reported. The Pacific Ocean could provide up to 5 million gallons of water a day and meet water needs for about 35,000 people, according to NBC Los Angeles. This local plant will make it so that South Orange County will no longer have to rely on water that is pumped from many miles away, from places like the rapidly drying Colorado River, Reuters reported."
"Hurricane Ian brings billion-dollar disasters this year well above average"
"Hurricanes Fiona and Ian were the latest in a torrent of 15 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters to strike the U.S. so far this year, according to new NOAA data. The big picture: The cost and frequency of extreme weather and climate disasters have increased in recent years. According to Climate Central, a research and communications nonprofit, the frequency of billion-dollar weather disasters is now about one event every 18 days. This compares to 82 days between such disasters in the 1980s, Climate Central found. The list of 2022 billion-dollar disasters includes a derecho, or long-lived severe thunderstorm complex producing damaging winds, that swept across the Midwest. A tornado outbreak in April in Georgia and South Carolina also made the cut. Typically, hurricanes are the costliest type of weather and climate-related disasters, followed by droughts."
