Weekend Outlook For the Twin Cities
For the first time in a long time, weekend weather conditions look fairly unsettled across parts of the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible both Saturday and Sunday with a few strong storms possible as well. Keep in mind that some of the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall with some 1" to 2" tallies possible.
Saturday Severe Threat
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of severe storms on Saturday with large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible. The Slight Risk (in yellow) is a level 2 out of 5 on the severe scale, so severe storm chances should be too widespread, but there certainly be a few strong storms across parts of the region.
Simulated Radar AM Saturday to AM Sunday
Here's NOAA's HRRR simulated radar from AM Saturday to AM Sunday, which shows showers and storms pushing through the region during the morning hours. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall early and again late in the day when another round of storms develops.
Rainfall Potential Through AM Monday
Unfortunately, weather conditions will be unsettled over the weekend, but the good news is that many locations have a pretty good chance of some measurable rainfall! According to NOAA's NDFD, some locations could see 1" to 2" tallies, which would be great news for many as it has been a very hot and dry summer so far.
Drought Update
The US Drought Monitor released their latest drought update on Thursday, which suggested that drought conditions continue to deepen across the state. Last week, nearly 22% of the state was in an extreme drought, now nearly 35% is in an extreme drought. Severe drought conditions have expanded to nearly 80% of the state, including the Twin Cities.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The map below shows precipitation departures from average since January 1st. Other than Wausau and Rhinelander, most locations are several inches below average since the beginning of the year. In fact, Minneapolis is at its 22nd driest start to any year on record. Fargo is the 6th driest and Milwaukee 2nd driest.
Saturday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday shows near average temperatures in place for early August. However, it looks like a fairly unsettled day with scattered showers and storms possible in the morning again later in the day. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temps warming from near 70F in the morning to the lower 80s in the afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible throughout the day as well, but the best chance of showers and storms will be during the first half of the and again late in the afternoon/evening. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Winds will generally be out of the east with gusts approaching 15mph/20mph.