Tuesday Weather Outlook
While it will be a chilly start on Tuesday, it won't be as cold as the past few mornings as temperatures start off in the mid-single digits (as temperatures actually rise Monday Night) on the way to highs right around 30F. A mix of sun and clouds (filtered sunshine) is expected.
While a few snow showers will be possible early Tuesday morning in the Arrowhead, most of the state will see quiet weather with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs range from the 20s up north to near 40F down by Sioux Falls.
_______________________________________________
Warmer Weather To End The Week
"We're having a heatwave... a tropical heatwave..." It's going to feel nice to have temperatures climb back into the 30s for highs as we head through the middle of the week. There are signs that this weekend, and especially next week, could be cooler once again. Even then, it currently looks more like teens and 20s for highs vs. single digits.
_______________________________________________
Late Week Snow
As we head toward the end of the workweek we will be tracking a clipper system moving into the Upper Midwest that currently looks to have a good chance to bring parts of Minnesota some measurable snow. Exact timing, amounts, etc, are yet to be determined as this system is several days out. However, make sure you keep an eye on this if you have any travel plans for the end of the week.
_______________________________________________
Cold Start To January
Through Sunday, our average temperature has only been 5.8F here in the Twin Cities. The 11.1F degrees below average that that average temperature is ranks as the 33rd coldest start to the month on record. We have had a 49F degree temperature spread between the warmest high and coldest low so far.
_______________________________________________
Great Lakes Ice Coverage
It's been a slow start to the Great Lakes ice season so far this winter. As of Sunday, only 7.1% of the Great Lakes (and Lake St. Clair) were covered by ice. That's actually greater than the past three years at this same time (3.1% in 2021, 1.8% in 2020, and 3.6% in 2019). The Great Lake with the greatest concentration of ice was Lake Huron - 14% covered. Lake Superior was 3.4% covered.
You can see that 2022 to date is below the historical average for the Great Lakes. However, peak coverage doesn't typically occur until the mid-February to the mid-March timeframe.
_______________________________________________
Warmer Temperatures Return – Snow Chance Late Week
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas
I feel like I've been a homebody through the first few days of the new year - so much for my resolution to get out and walk more. But I can blame it on that bitterly cold air! Through Sunday the average temperature for the month has been 5.8F at MSP, ranking as the 33rd coldest start to the year on record. While MSP hasn't had a high below zero, only two days have recorded an average temperature departure that was above average.
Despite the recent cold temperatures, it's been a quiet start to the ice season on the Great Lakes. Only 7.1% of the Great Lakes were ice-covered as of Sunday, which is more than at this time the past three years. The greatest concentration of ice on the big five lakes (since Lake St. Clair is included in that overall number) is on Huron, which is 14% covered. Lake Superior was officially 3.4% covered.
Warmer highs - generally in the 30s - are in the forecast as we head through Thursday. A clipper will bring a decent chance of at least shovelable snow somewhere across the state Friday.
_______________________________________________
D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast
TUESDAY: Filtered sunshine. Wake up 7. High 31. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind WSW 10-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late night snowflakes? Wake up 21. High 32. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind WNW 3-8 mph.
THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy skies. Wake up 20. High 31. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind WSW 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Breezy with snow. Wake up 21. High 28. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Clouds stick around. Wake up 13. High 22. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Light snow showers. Wake up 10. High 26. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Partly sunny and cooler. Wake up 8. High 18. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
_______________________________________________
Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
January 11th
*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 3 minutes, and 31 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 33 seconds
*When Do We See 9.5 Hours Of Daylight: January 25th (9 hours, 31 minutes, 15 seconds)
*Next Sunrise At/Before 7:30 AM: February 3rd (7:30 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 5 PM: January 17th (5:00 PM)
_______________________________________________
This Day in Weather History
January 11th
1975: A blizzard continues with hurricane force winds in southwestern Minnesota.
1899: An odd flash of lightning lights the clouds up around 9 pm at Maple Plain.
_______________________________________________
National Weather Forecast
Not a lot of weather to talk about as we slide into Tuesday - which I won't complain about too much! Some snow will be possible in and around the Great Lakes region, and a system in the Pacific Northwest will bring rain, snow, and ice concerns.
Some of the greatest snow through Wednesday will be downwind of the Great Lakes, where especially downwind of Lake Ontario total snow of up to two feet will be possible. Heavy rain will be possible in the Pacific Northwest.
_______________________________________________
Air pollution from wildfires, rising heat affected 68% of U.S. West
More from Washington State University: "Large wildfires and severe heat events are happening more often at the same time, worsening air pollution across the western United States, a study led by Washington State University researchers has found. In 2020, more than 68% of the western U.S. – representing about 43 million people – were affected in one day by the resulting harmful-levels of air pollution, the highest number in 20 years. The study, published in Science Advances, found that such widespread air pollution events are not only increasing in frequency but also persisting longer and affecting a larger geographic extent across the region. They have become so bad that they have reversed many gains of the Clean Air Act. The conditions that create these episodes are also expected to continue to increase, along with their threats to human health."
Planet-warming emissions surged faster in the US than expected in 2021, analysts say
From CNN: "In a troublesome sign for President Joe Biden's climate goals, US greenhouse emissions surged back from a pandemic slump faster in 2021 than the overall economy, according to a preliminary analysis by the nonpartisan Rhodium Group. Energy analysts had expected to see a rebound of planet-warming emissions in 2021. But even so, the growth outpaced expectations, according to Kate Larsen, a partner at Rhodium Group and a co-author of the report. "Emissions grew even faster than the economic recovery and that was largely the rebound in coal generation," Larsen told CNN, noting that "there weren't any significant policies to make economic growth less carbon-intensive.""
Could Prairie State cut enough carbon to avoid closure? University of Illinois has a plan
More from the Belleville News-Democrat: "Unless a coal-fired power plant in southwestern Illinois manages to make dramatic reductions in its carbon emissions, it will be forced to close within the next 23 years. Kevin O'Brien, director of the Illinois Sustainable Technology Center at the University of Illinois, has been working on designing a plan to capture carbon at Prairie State Energy Campus, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in Illinois, according to federal data. In 2020, the plant's stacks sent forth nearly 12 million tons of the heat-trapping gases that contribute to devastating climate change. The state's new clean energy law, the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act, requires Prairie State Energy Campus to be 100% carbon-free by the end of 2045. It mandates a 45% reduction by Jan. 1, 2035. If the company falls short, it must retire one or more units or further reduce emissions by 45% by mid-2038."
_______________________________________________
Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
