Chilly Start For Saturday, But Highs Around Average With Sunshine

If you have to head out early Saturday morning, make sure you bundle up around the region! Most of the state will drop to temperatures capable of frost and freeze conditions in the 20s and 30s.

A mainly sunny day is expected in the Twin Cities as we head into Saturday, with a few more clouds creeping in late in the afternoon. Morning temperatures will start off in the mid-30s, climbing to the low 60s for highs.

Enjoy lots of sunshine across most of the state on Saturday, however, clouds will be on the increase into the afternoon hours - especially the farther north you go. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s - generally within a few degrees of average.


Quiet Weekend Ahead

A quiet weekend is expected in the Twin Cities with highs around average and lots of sunshine. The only flaw in the plan might be a few more clouds on Sunday and the potential of a few showers mainly St. Cloud northward.


70s By Tuesday Before Another Strong Cold Front

Continue to enjoy some warmer weather into early next week with highs a good ten degrees above average Tuesday before the other shoe drops once again toward the middle of the week! A strong cold front will pass through Wednesday, bringing strong winds, a rain chance, and cooler temperatures. It should be noted that, depending on how far the fall colors advance in the next several days, this next system could bring down a lot of the leaves across the region.


Fall Color Update

Most of northern Minnesota is now either at or past peak according to the Minnesota DNR Fall Color Finder, with many areas farther south starting to approach that range ever so slowly. A Friday update from Charles A. Lindbergh State Park (in the Little Falls area) says: "Most trees are changing color, and leaves have started to fall. A big wind or rain will leave most of the elms and ashes bare." You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.

Here's a handy map of typical peak fall colors from the MN DNR. This ranges from mid/late September in far northern Minnesota to mid-October in southern parts of the state.


Extended Outlook: Mild, Then Slushy
By Paul Douglas

Ah, so THIS is what autumn feels like. Minnesotans are reluctant gold medal winners in the USA Olympic Shivering competition, held annually. Does shivering burn off fat? I read it on the internet so it must be true.

Yesterday was the coldest day since May 1, when the high at MSP was a brisk 48F. A preview of coming attractions. Maybe coming a little sooner than you hoped.

Good news into Tuesday for lukewarm weather-lovers with blue sky and low 60s today and tomorrow, and low 70s by Tuesday. Soak it up. With extreme drought top of mind I'm encouraged to see a more significant "storm" brewing for Wednesday of next week. ECMWF guidance hints at .5 to 1" rainfall amounts, which (if true) would be very good news. That same weather model shows a deep storm temporarily stalling over the Minnesota Arrowhead, inhaling enough chilly air to turn rain over to s-n-o-w up north. Timing? How much? Maybe a few inches for the Red River Valley.

Excuse me for being impolite, but it is October. Sometimes it snows.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny and breezy. Wake up 35. High 62. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Blue sky with less wind. Wake up 45. High 63. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny and lukewarm. Wake up 42. High 68. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Clouds increase, breezy and mild. Wake up 52. High 73. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Rain may be heavy. Wake up 55. High 64. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Showers taper, blustery. Wake up 43. High 49. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Hello November! Windblown flakes? Wake up 34. High 38. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 8th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 20 minutes, and 30 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 4 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight?: October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)


This Day in Weather History
October 8th

1949: A record-setting 3.17 inches of rain falls at Eau Claire.


National Weather Forecast

The main story on Saturday will be the stubborn upper-level low-pressure area across the Southwest that will continue to produce some showers and storms, as well as some light snow in the higher terrain. Some storms will be possible in southern Florida with the advancing cold front, and some lake effect rain showers will be possible by Saturday Night in the Northeast. Otherwise, high pressure dominates much of the country. A perfect day for some leaf peeping!

The best chance of heavy rain through Sunday will be across parts of the Southwest into the Texas Panhandle, where 1-3" of rain could fall. Meanwhile, an additional 0.25-0.5" of rain could fall in southern Florida.


Top National Weather Service meteorologists scour damage zone to improve future hurricane forecasts

More from WGCU: "Weather researchers and forecasters from NOAA were among the hurricane experts who traveled to Fort Myers to look for subtle clues left behind by Hurricane Ian that might help improve the forecast during future tropical cyclones. Brian LaMarre, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Tampa, was leading his colleagues from NOAA on the damage survey even though this isn't where Ian made landfall. But San Carlos Island is where winds howled at nearly 150 miles per hour and storm surge reached 15 feet. The boats still up in the trees prove it. "It is a worst-case scenario," LaMarre said of the whole Fort Meyers Beach region. "I think we at the National Weather Service would be failing in our jobs if we did not use this event as an opportunity to learn and also to capture how significant and how deadly the impacts have been in this area.""

Draconid meteor shower 2022: Moonlight and meteors

More from EarthSky: "The Draconid shower – also called the Giacobinids – is a real oddity, in that its radiant point stands highest in the sky as darkness falls. That's why you'll see more Draconids in the evening hours than in the morning hours after midnight. But in 2022, the full or nearly full moon is in the way. Predicted peak: October 9, 2022, at 1 UTC (evening of October 8 for the Americas). When to watch: There's no dark window for watching the Draconids in 2022. If you want to watch in moonlight, try the evening (not the morning) of October 8. You might catch some on the evenings before and after as well."

Study: Warming winters will thaw frozen manure, further polluting U.S. waters

More from Grist: "As winters warm, pollution caused by chemicals common in industrial agriculture practices will increase dramatically across nearly half of the United States. That's according to a new study that says nutrient pollution—chemicals from fertilizer and manure like nitrogen and phosphorus—pollutes lakes, rivers, and groundwater and has been linked to toxic algae blooms in waterways, contaminated drinking water, and mass die-offs of marine life. The study found that when winters are warmer, rain is more common, causing melt and subsequent runoff of soil packed with nutrients and chemicals. Researchers also found that at warmer winter temperatures, microbial activity occurs in the soil, prompting more nitrogen to develop and get into groundwater. Increased rain-on-snow events could increase nitrogen and phosphorus levels across 40 percent of the contiguous U.S."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser