Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night

As we head late in the overnight hours Sunday Night (more like the morning hours on Monday), a few strong storms will be possible out in west-central Minnesota. Above is the potential forecast radar for 7 AM Monday morning.

Due to the threat of some strong storms Sunday Night (through 7 AM Monday), a Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place in western Minnesota. Large hail and gusty winds would be the main threats from any storm that is a bit strong.


First 80F Of The Year Monday With More Strong Storms

Loop: 7 AM Monday to 10 PM Monday.

That batch of storms off to the west early Monday morning will continue to traverse northeastward, reaching the Duluth area during the midday hours. A second batch of storms could then form across the region - primarily Twin Cities eastward - heading through the later afternoon hours that could be strong.

Due to the potential of strong storms across the eastern portion of the state into western Wisconsin, we do watch a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather. Large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out.

We will watch the potential of two rounds of rain on Monday in the Twin Cities - one through the midday hours (with the strongest storms passing to our north), and a second late in the day in which a few storms could be severe in our neck of the woods. Temperatures look to climb into the 80s for the first time this year Monday, but I think the graphics above are overdoing temperatures a touch - I think it'll be more in the low 80s vs. mid/upper 80s for highs. A lot of it will depend on the amount of cloud cover that sticks around during the day. Winds will also be strong - out of the southerly direction with gusts to 40 mph.

Want cool weather on Monday? Head to the Lake Superior shoreline, as highs will only be in the 50s. Otherwise, expect 60-80s across the state with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Strong winds are also expected on Monday with wind gusts of 40-45 mph south of the Minnesota River and out in western Minnesota. Due to these strong winds, a Wind Advisory is in place.

Meanwhile, heavy rain of 1-2" will be possible from Sunday Night into Monday across portions of northwestern Minnesota. Flood Watches are in place due to the fact that some of these areas have been hard hit with heavy precipitation recently and some areas have ongoing flooding.


More Storms Wednesday And Thursday

Loop: 3-hour precipitation off the European model from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Friday.

As we head later into Wednesday we will watch out next chance of storms rolling into the region with a warm front pushing northward. A few of these storms could be strong. More storms will be possible on Thursday as a cold front pushes through into the overnight hours, and some of these could be strong to severe. Due to the threat Thursday and Thursday Night, especially to the north and west of the metro, the equivalent of a Slight Risk of severe weather is already in place.


Record Highs Possible Mid-Week

The other big story mid-week will be the heat. As we head into Thursday morning lows are only expected to dip into the upper 60s in the metro. The record warm low for Thursday is 62F set back in 1944.

And depending on how storms roll through Wednesday Night, we could be aiming for the first 90F degree day of 2022 on Thursday with an expected high of 91F. That would beat the record of the day of 90F set in 1961.


Overall, A Warm Week

So after highs in the 80s Monday (again, more than likely low 80s vs. mid or upper 80s), we see a quick break in summer-like heat on Tuesday behind a cold front with mid-70s for highs. Temperatures quickly rebound to the 80s Wednesday and potentially 90s Thursday before cooling back off to the mid-70s Friday.

Dewpoints will also be elevated in the mid-60s on the days with highs in the 80s and 90s, so it'll feel sticky and just like summer out there!


Minnesota Fishing Opener Preview

The cooler weather sticks around for the Minnesota Fishing Opener on Saturday, with 60s and 70s expected across most of the state. The best chance of rain looks to be later in the day and across southern Minnesota.


This Week Feels Like Something Out Of July
By Paul Douglas

I don't want to bury the lede: welcome to July! We should see 80s most of this week, with a shot at 90 degrees Thursday. Nothing like easing into summer, but after a suboptimal April most of us will soak up the warmth and moisture.

This sudden surge of heat will destabilize our skies, sparking a colorful (on Doppler radar) assortment of thunderstorms. A few may turn severe over far southeast Minnesota this evening, with additional swarms of storms statewide Wednesday and Thursday night. Temperatures average 10-20F above normal this week, and a few neighbors and newcomers who don't know any better may whine about the humidity. Smile and gently ignore them.

The Fishing Opener is Saturday and ECMWF, The European Model, is much wetter than NOAA's models. At this point I would plan on rain for Saturday fishing and be pleasantly surprised if the storm shifts east.

Cooler 60s return next week and I'm fairly confident the latter half of May may be cooler than average. Oh well. Enjoy a fine 5-day warm front!


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sticky sun, T-storm risk. Wake up 57. High 86. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 20-40 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, briefly cooling off. Wake up 57. High 78. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Some sun, T-storms at night. Wake up 60. High 82. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Hello July! Hot sunshine. Wake up 66. High 88. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 68. High 83. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Cooler, potential for showers. Wake up 58. High 71. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Cool wind, few showers possible. Wake up 52. High 62. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
May 9th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 37 minutes, and 14 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 30 seconds

*When Do We See 15 Hours Of Daylight: May 19th (15 hours, 0 minutes, 10 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM?: May 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8:30 PM?: May 10th (8:30 PM)


This Day in Weather History
May 9th

1966: Minnesota experiences a widespread hard freeze, with temperatures in the teens as far south as Caledonia.


National Weather Forecast

On Monday, precipitation will mostly be limited to the Pacific Northwest and into the Midwest. In the Midwest, strong to severe storms are possible. Meanwhile, out toward the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, rain and higher elevation rain/snow showers are expected. Numerous record highs will be broken from Texas and Oklahoma to Mississippi.

The heaviest rain through Tuesday will fall across parts of the Dakotas and the northern Red River Valley, where 1-2" tallies are expected. Several inches of snow could fall in the mountains in the western United States.

Meanwhile, the combination of strong winds and low humidity values will lead to an Extreme Fire Danger on Monday across portions of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Colorado.


European farmland could be biggest global reservoir of microplastics, study suggests

More from Cardiff University: "Farmlands across Europe are potentially the biggest global reservoir of microplastics due to the high concentrations found in fertilisers derived from sewage sludge, new research has shown. Scientists from Cardiff University and the University of Manchester estimate that between 31,000 and 42,000 tonnes of microplastics (or 86 – 710 trillion microplastic particles) are applied to European soils annually, mirroring the concentration of microplastics found in ocean surface waters. In a study published in the journal Environmental Pollution, the team estimate that microplastics removed from raw sewage at wastewater treatment plants go on to make up roughly 1% of the weight of sewage sludge, which is commonly used as a fertiliser on farms across Europe."

New Department of Justice Office Will Target Climate Disparities

More from Gizmodo: "The U.S. Department of Justice is stepping up for environmental justice efforts. Attorney General Merrick Garland just announced a new office of the department that will exclusively focus on the human impacts of pollution and climate changed-fueled disasters. "The Justice Department has three essential responsibilities: upholding the rule of law, keeping our country safe, and protecting civil rights," Garland said this week. "Seeking and securing justice for communities that are disproportionately burdened by environmental harms is a task demanded by all three of those responsibilities.""

Iowa carbon pipeline opponents see lessons from Dakota Access fight

More from Energy News Network: "We're a long way from another Standing Rock. In Iowa, though, a coalition similar to the one that took a stand against the Dakota Access Pipeline in 2016 is emerging to fight a proposed interstate carbon dioxide pipeline network, and opponents say they're more organized and energized at this stage thanks to lessons learned last decade. "People forget the fight against DAPL" — the Dakota Access Pipeline — "started in Iowa," said Sikowis Nobiss, founder and executive director of Great Plains Action Society, a regional organization of Indigenous activists formed in part to help galvanize resistance to Dakota Access. "Here we are again starting a fight against a pipeline in Iowa." The organization's latest target is a project by Summit Carbon Solutions that would carry carbon dioxide captured at more than 30 Midwest ethanol plants to underground storage sites in North Dakota. The proposed route would not cross tribal land, but the same was true of the early Dakota Access route before it was rerouted through the Standing Rock Reservation."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser