Thursday Weather Outlook

I can't tell you how much it makes me happy to see a few thunderstorms in the forecast as we head into Thursday, especially with how dry we have been in the past several weeks. The best chance of some scattered showers or storms will be during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mainly sunny skies are expected with highs topping off in the low 90s.

The best chance of showers and storms on Thursday will be across southern and central Minnesota, otherwise, skies will be mainly sunny across much of the state. Highs will mainly be in the 80s and 90s, but some 70s will be possible along the North Shore.

Here's a look at the potential evolution of showers and storms on Thursday. While there may be a few lingering chances of rain in the morning from overnight activity Wednesday Night, more rain is expected to pop across central and southern Minnesota during the afternoon hours.

A few of the storms Thursday could be on the strong side, with a Slight Risk of severe storms (threat level 2 of 5) across far southern Minnesota and a Marginal Risk of severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) stretching up toward the southeast metro. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out in far southern Minnesota stretching into northern Iowa.


Weekend Outlook: Dry Saturday, Storms For Father's Day

Looking toward Father's Day weekend, we are looking at a dry and mainly sunny Saturday across the region, with highs reaching the low 80s in the Twin Cities. Unfortunately, a soggy Father's Day is expected as we watch an area of low pressure move across the Upper Midwest during the second half of the weekend into early next week. Again, we need the rain, so I can't complain too much... but if you're looking to light the BBQ up this weekend, Saturday will probably be the better of the two days.


Closer Look At Father's Day

A statewide look at Father's Day Sunday shows the potential for showers and storms across much of the state, although portions of southwestern Minnesota may stay dry through much of the day. Most areas of the state will climb into the 70s and 80s for highs.

As we look at Father's Day climatology for the Twin Cities, a high in the low 80s would be right around average for the day. The warmest we've ever been on Father's Day (going back to 1910) was 98F in 1988. The wettest was back in 1935 when 2.16" of rain occurred. The good news - no snow has ever occurred!


Cooling Into Next Week

We do see a cooling trend as we head through the weekend into early next week, with highs likely in the low 80s Saturday and Sunday before dipping into the 70s for Monday and Tuesday. Some model guidance even hints at the potential of 60s for highs early in the week. It won't last too long, though, as it appears we'll be back in the 80s heading toward the middle of next week.


We Need Some Rain!

It's been a very dry June so far across most of the state, with many climate locations running between 1-3" below average halfway through the month. Through the 15th it's been the 12th driest start to the month in the Twin Cities with only 0.40" of rain falling so far.

The dry weather has not helped soil moisture across the state. As of the latest Minnesota crop update, issued this past Monday, 57% of topsoil is either short or very short of moisture. Head south into Iowa, and 71% of topsoil is at those moisture levels. Any rain we can get to help the drought situation (and the crops) would be much needed!

Looking at corn in either good or excellent condition, that is down 11% week to week in the state to 58%.

As we look out through Monday morning, the heaviest rain with our upcoming chances (late Wednesday through Thursday and again Sunday into early next week) will likely fall across portions of southern Minnesota, where at least an inch could fall. Eastern Minnesota could see over a half an inch fall.


Hot Sun Gives Way to Relief by Monday
By Paul Douglas

I can't remember a spring this sunny, or a June this warm. MSP is running nearly 13F warmer than normal with an average temperature of 80.4F, and 10 days in the 90s. That would be impressive for July, our hottest month of the year. There's little doubt that most of Minnesota has gotten off to the hottest meteorological summer on record.

It's almost too nice out there - certainly too dry. Why the lack of rain in recent weeks? An airflow from the Desert Southwest vs. the Gulf of Mexico. A holding pattern that trapped southern moisture well south of Minnesota.

A few showers and T-storms may sprout Sunday with just enough rain to settle the dust. Looking out 2 weeks I don't see a big change in the pattern that would favor more frequent rains. And no, a scorching June doesn't mean a blisteringly-hot summer is imminent - but it is a signal suggesting the odds of a hot/dry summer are high.

Sunshine spills into Saturday and any Sunday puddles give way to a cool, windblown Monday. 60s on Tuesday? Yes please.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Sunny, isolated T-storm. Wake up 70. High 92. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Blue sky, still hot. Wake up 68. High 90. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunny and more comfortable. Wake up 60. High 85. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Opportunity for showers, T-storms. Wake up 62. High 80. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Cool & windblown. Few PM showers. Wake up 58. High 71. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 15-35 mph.

TUESDAY: Touch of fall, few sprinkles. Cool! Wake up 54. High 64. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine returns. Wake up 51. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 17th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes and 25 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~0 minutes and 17 seconds

*When Do We Have The Most Daylight? June 20th-21st (15 hours, 36 minutes, and 50 seconds)
*When Is The Earliest Sunrise Of The Year?: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM)
*When Is The Latest Sunset Of The Year?: June 19th-July 2nd (9:03 PM)


This Day in Weather History
June 17th

2010: The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurs with 48 tornadoes across the state. This outbreak would set the stage for a record breaking tornado year in Minnesota that finished with 113 tornadoes, the most of any state in the US that year. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest daily number since July 5, 1978.


National Weather Forecast

As a system moves through the central United States Thursday, showers and storms will be possible from the Great Lakes back toward the Rockies. Some showers and storms will be possible across Florida and the Gulf Coast, with increasing rain chances toward Friday morning along the northern Gulf Coast as we watch a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

There are portions of the Upper Midwest and the Gulf Coast that could see at least an inch or two of rain through Friday evening. Along the northern Gulf Coast, this would be due to our approaching potential tropical system.


Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Wednesday, June 16th, 2021

Watching The Bay Of Campeche And Gulf Of Mexico. The broad area of low pressure we've been tracking the past few days in the Bay of Campeche and over portions of southern Mexico hasn't moved much over the past few days and remains disorganized as of this morning. Movement will continue to be slow over the next day or so with little additional development. As we head toward Thursday and Friday, this system will finally start to move northward and is likely to become a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico. There is a high chance of formation over the next 48 hours (70%) and the next five days (90%). Model forecasts have this topping off at either tropical depression or tropical storm status if it forms into a tropical entity.

Heavy Gulf Coast Rain. While it will bring some gustier winds and the potential of tornadoes to the northern Gulf Coast, heavy rain appears to be the greatest threat across the region through the weekend. A widespread area of at least 4-8" of rain, with isolated foot amounts, will be possible near and along the northern Gulf Coast through the weekend, which will likely lead to flooding.

Records Out West Yesterday. The record heat continued across the western United States Tuesday, with at least 56 record highs set at National Weather Service climate locations. The high of 107F at Salt Lake City broke the all-time June record, which was previously 106F, and tied the all-time record high.

Excessive Heat Continues. We continue to track record-breaking heat out in the western United States over the next several days, with areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Sacramento under Excessive Heat Warnings. Numerous record highs will continue to fall daily through at least the first half of the weekend.

Heat Safety. Remember to practice heat safety in these areas over the next several days as over the past 30 years heat has been the leading cause of weather fatalities. You can find more information on heat safety from NOAA:

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix


High-elevation forests in the Rockies are burning more now than in the past 2,000 years

More from CNN: "Following a devastating wildfire season in 2020, new research shows that high-elevation forests in the Rocky Mountains are burning more now than any time in the past 2,000 years amid extreme, climate change-induced drought. The study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concluded that fire activity in subalpine forests of northern Colorado and southern Wyoming is unprecedented in the last several millennia — a clear signal that the climate crisis is increasing the severity and extent of wildfires in the West."

Mountain residents underestimate wildfire risk, overestimate preparedness

More from CU Boulder Today: "An hour southwest of Denver on U.S. Highway 285, the North Fork of the South Platte River flows through Bailey, Colorado, surrounded by sprawling forest, rolling mountains and rocky outcrops. While this scenic spot may be best known as the home of the Coney Island Hot Dog Stand, a great place for fly fishing, and a place to stop for gas on the way to Buena Vista, it's also the site of important data-driven wildfire risk prevention work being conducted by CU Boulder researchers, Bailey area residents and the Platte Canyon Fire Protection District. Hannah Brenkert-Smith, research associate professor at the Institute of Behavioral Science, has been studying the role of residents' choices in reducing wildfire risk since the Hayman Fire in 2002—the state's largest wildfire in recorded history for 18 years, until the Pine Gulch and Cameron Peak fires in 2020. She now brings those two decades of experience to a two-year partnership which surveyed Bailey area residents' knowledge and choices around wildfire mitigation and prevention on their property in 2020."

How Severe Is the Western Drought? See For Yourself

More from the New York Times: "An intense drought is gripping the American West. Extreme conditions are more widespread than at any point in at least 20 years, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the government's official drought-tracking service. And the hottest months of summer are still to come. "It's an alarming picture," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies how global warming affects extreme weather events. Across the region, reservoir levels are near record lows and mountain snowpack, which slowly releases water in the spring and summer, is largely depleted. In California, water restrictions are already in effect, with more widespread cuts expected. Dry soil conditions are already increasing fire risk."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser