Storm Chances Friday & Saturday With The First 70F Of 2022 Expected

With Wednesday's rain we picked up another 0.62" of precipitation for the month at MSP airport. The top airport location across the state was Wheaton which saw 0.65" of rain.

That rain Wednesday brings the monthly total up to just below 2.50" in the Twin Cities. Almost all climate locations across the state are running a surplus of precipitation so far this month. The exception is up in Baudette, which is 0.22" below average. As you head out toward Sioux Falls and Huron, though, they're both over an inch below average.

Looking at the meteorological season (since March 1st), we're up to almost 5.50" of liquid in the Twin Cities, just under 2" above average.

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Hourly forecast loop from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

As we start to watch an area of low pressure pushing into the central United States and a warm front lifting northward, we are likely to see a batch of rain in southern Minnesota during the morning hours Friday and some snow far up north. Scattered showers and storms will be possible at times throughout the rest of the day, increasing late and into the overnight hours (especially up north).

Some of the storms Friday into Friday night could be on the strong side, with a Slight Risk (threat level 2 of 5) and Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) of severe weather in place across a good portion of Minnesota. The primary threat from strong storms will be large hail followed by damaging winds.

In the Twin Cities, we'll watch that shower and thunderstorm chance as temperatures don't dip far enough in the morning (only the low 40s) for wintry precipitation. The best chance of rain will be in the morning hours. A few scattered showers or storms will be possible in the afternoon (mainly late afternoon and into the evening), but for the most part here in the Twin Cities, we should just see mainly cloudy skies.

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Hourly forecast loop from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday.

Most of Saturday will be dry in the Twin Cities, with more scattered areas of showers and a rumble or two of thunder up north. However, we will be tracking a cold front moving across the state later in the day that will bring the threat of a line of showers and storms along with it. Currently, models put it reaching the Twin Cities as we head into the early evening timeframe.

These storms will also have the potential of being severe, with a Slight Risk of severe weather covering a good chunk of the state. Damaging winds and large hail would appear to be the main threats, but we can't rule out an isolated tornado - especially with the triple point (where the area of low pressure meets with the cold and warm fronts) out in western Minnesota.

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Our forecast high on Saturday for the Twin Cities is 74F, which would be the first 70F degree day of 2022. The last time the Twin Cities saw a high in the 70s was back on October 19th (74F). Enjoy it while it lasts, as surrounding that one warm day with highs around 15F degrees above average... we're below average. Yes, Friday will be right around average, but as we head toward Sunday highs are back in the low 50s, and they even drop into the mid-40s for early next week. This might be short-lived, however, as models do indicate highs warming back into at least the 60s for the second half of next week.

That colder weather will add to what has been a pretty miserable April in the temperature department (but great if you don't want to use the air conditioning just yet!). Our average temperature through the 20th has been only 38.6F - that's 6.3F below average and the 19th coldest start to April on record.

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Saturday's Warm Front May Spark Hail
By Paul Douglas

Welcome to the 19th coldest start to April in the Twin Cities since 1872. Temperatures are 6.3F colder than average. The 4th colder than average month in a row at MSP and most of Minnesota. NOAA's models predict a hotter than normal summer, but I'm starting to wonder.

Showers sweep in from the south later today with a few feisty thunderstorms late Saturday; a few capable of hail and damaging winds. On the cold side of the storm western North Dakota (got that?) may pick up over 30" of additional snow. Yikes.

No dramatic reversal to our cool-ish pattern is brewing yet: 40s Monday, then by 60s late next week. We go merrily limping into spring!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Some sun, gusty. Severe T-storm risk. Wake up 58. High 76. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 20-40 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Wake up 47. High 50. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 15-35 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy and jacket-worthy. Wake up 31. High 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Chilled sunshine. Wake up 28. High 44. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, breezy. Wake up 28. High 51. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
April 22nd

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 50 minutes, and 34 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 53 seconds

*When Do We See 14 Hours Of Daylight: April 26th (14 hours, 2 minutes, 30 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6 AM?: May 3rd (6:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8:30 PM?: May 10th (8:30 PM)

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1874: Unseasonably cold air moves into Minnesota. The low is 23 degrees at the Twin Cities.

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The main story on Friday will be a system tracking out of the Rockies into the central U.S./Upper Midwest, bringing rain and snow from the western to central U.S.

Strong storms will be possible Friday across the mid-section of the nation, with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather in place. Large hail and damaging winds will be the greatest threats, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out.

We are also tracking an Extreme fire danger across portions of Colorado and New Mexico on Friday, as wind gusts of 50-70 mph and low humidity values in combination with nearly-record dry fuels will allow any fires that form or are ongoing to quickly spread.

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Ohio woman files five bogus Arkansas storm reports, including one about a tornado

More from the Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette: "As severe storms moved through Arkansas on the night of April 11, someone in another state filed five "maliciously false" Arkansas storm reports, a meteorologist said. One of those reports — that a large tornado was heading toward Jacksonville and Cabot — contributed to the National Weather Service's decision to upgrade a tornado warning to a tornado emergency. "How much that one report played into that decision, I can't say for sure," said Dennis Cavanaugh, warning and coordination meteorologist with the Weather Service in North Little Rock."

Meet the micronova: Astronomers discovered new type of stellar explosion

More from Ars Technica: "Astronomers have discovered highly localized thermonuclear blasts coming from the surface of three white dwarf stars—unusually short-lived events they have dubbed "micronovae." They're similar to novas, except these blasts can burn through a tremendous amount of material in just a few hours, roughly equivalent to 3.5 billion Great Pyramids of Giza. According to the authors of a new paper published in the journal Nature, micronovae could be common in the Universe; they're just difficult to detect because they don't last very long."The phenomenon challenges our understanding of how thermonuclear explosions in stars occur,' said co-author Simone Scaringi, an astronomer at Durham University in the UK. "We thought we knew this, but this discovery proposes a totally new way to achieve them. It just goes to show how dynamic the Universe is.""

More from Inside Climate News: "Millions more Americans are breathing unhealthy air compared to just a few years ago, in large part due to climate change, which is also widening the nation's health disparities, a new study from one of the country's leading public health organizations has concluded. On Thursday, the American Lung Association released its latest annual "State of the Air" report, which evaluates county-level air quality data across the nation over three-year periods. This year's report—which looked at 2018, 2019 and 2020—found that 137 million Americans were exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution. That's 2.1 million more people than recorded in the association's report last year, and nearly 9 million more when looking specifically at exposure to fine soot pollution, or PM2.5. Those increases were driven largely by a surge in wildfires across the West, the study's authors said."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser