Rain, Snow, And Ice Continues To Impact Minnesota
Forecast loop from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM Friday.
We continue to track a system that is moving through the region as we head through the next few days with several expected impacts. As we head through Wednesday night, we will continue to see rain from southwest to northeast Minnesota, including here in the metro. Up in northwestern Minnesota Wednesday night, icy weather will start to impact the region, with this changing to snow across northern Minnesota as we head through Thursday. Rain (and storms) continue across central and southern Minnesota on Thursday, but as the area of low pressure moves through the rain will end across these regions. Finally by Friday snow starts to taper off across northern Minnesota, however, some light snow chances could continue across the state on Friday.
Precipitation (rain and/or melted snow/ice) through 6 AM Saturday
Some of the heaviest precipitation through the next day or two will fall from central to northern Minnesota, where precipitation totals of over an inch will be possible.
Snow through 6 AM Saturday
Heavy snow is expected to fall with this system across parts of northern (especially northwestern) Minnesota, where at least a half a foot to a foot of snow will be possible. Light snow could fall as far south as central Minnesota Thursday Night into Friday.
Ice through 6 AM Saturday
We will also see the potential for icing, especially Wednesday Night into Thursday morning, across northern Minnesota. The heaviest is expected from the Fargo area east to around Bemidji, where a quarter inch or more could fall.
Due to the expected impacts from snow, icy, and windy conditions, we have several Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings in place up across northern Minnesota. Ice Storm Warnings are in place across portions of South Dakota.
Meanwhile, out ahead of the cold front and area of low pressure on Thursday some severe weather will be possible. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.
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60s Early Thursday Before Temperatures Drop
Make sure you get out and enjoy the 60s while you can in the morning hours on Thursday, as temperatures will be dropping throughout the day behind the frontal boundary and as the area of low pressure works through the region. The best chance of rainfall in the metro will be in the morning hours, as likely once we get behind the low we'll be in a dry slot while precipitation continues north and east of us.
A major temperature gradient across the state is expected Thursday - partly due to the cold front moving through. If you're out ahead of that front in the morning hours, highs will be set early in the 60s (southeastern Minnesota). Behind it, and stuck in the heavier snow (and ice), temperatures will be 20s in northwestern Minnesota.
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Highs In The 20s & 30s Friday Into Next Week
Thursday looks to be the last 60F degree day for a long, long time... and you'll have to enjoy that quickly since that temperature will be dropping through the day! Behind this system highs will only be in the 20s and 30s through at least the middle of the week, and right now models keep us in the teens to 30s for highs through Thanksgiving. The last time we saw a high at or below 32F in the Twin Cities was March 27th. March 28th was the last time we saw a low at or below 20F.
And with the colder temperatures comes wind chill! By Saturday morning, wind chills are expected to be below zero up across northern Minnesota. Morning wind chills will be in the teens Friday through Monday in the metro.
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An Early Taste of January Next Week?
By Paul Douglas
I almost feel bad for the pollsters. With few exceptions the future is unknowable. What will the winter be like? Financial markets in 2023? Will I live long enough to see the Vikings in a Super Bowl?
Models help but they are guide, not Gospel. Mathematical equations describe how an idealized atmosphere should behave, but they don't catch all the nuance. We can't get a perfectly accurate snapshot of current worldwide weather at every altitude to feed into the models, so small omissions and imperfections mutate into raging errors after only a few days, and accuracy suffers.
Red Wave? Blue Wave? I predict a Canadian Wave with a high degree of confidence, and a few inches of snow next week. Maybe plowable? Here comes a temperature tumble; a 35-degree drop in 15 hours today?
The extended maps look very cold for the latter half of November. 20s and 30s for highs next week, with a possibility of a few inches of snow Monday through Wednesday. A premature January Jolt. It won't last, but it will get your attention.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
THURSDAY: Thunder, then colder winds. High 63 (set early, temperatures dropping to 40F by 5 PM). Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 20-40 mph.
FRIDAY: Cloudy and cold. Few flakes. Wake up 28. High 34. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, mostly-December. Wake up 27. High 32. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Clouds linger. Light snow at night? Wake up 26. High 33. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Light snow. Slippery coating? Wake up 28. High 35. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: Heavier snow. Accumulation potential. Wake up 31. High 34. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More light snow - few inches total? Wake up 24. High 31. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 10th
*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 45 minutes, and 30 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 32 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Daylight?: December 3rd (8 hours, 59 minutes, 4 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise: December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 5th-December 13th (4:31 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
November 10th
1999: Late season hail falls in Eden Prairie. Pea size hail (0.25 inch. in diameter) up to one foot deep collected near storm drains near Hennepin Technical College and Hwy 212. Pea size hail about 4 inches deep was also reported on grass near Hwy 5 and Mitchell Rd. The hail and torrential rains forced drivers off the road in Bloomington.
1998: A potent storm nicknamed a 'land hurricane' sets a new all-time record low pressure for Minnesota around noon at Albert Lea and Austin as it passes overhead. The automated weather observing equipment at both airports measured a barometric pressure of 28.43 inches, which broke the previous record of 28.55 inches set on 11 January 1975 in Duluth. The new record for the Twin Cities was set with a reading of 28.55 inches. The previous record was 28.77 inches, set on April 13th of 1964. 10 inches of snow fell at Madison, MN and St. Cloud State University had a wind gust to 64 mph.
1975: The Edmund Fitzgerald sinks off Whitefish Bay, causing 29 fatalities.
1913: A severe windstorm occurs on Lake Superior. Three ships were lost. Winds were clocked at 62 mph at Duluth.
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National Weather Forecast
Two major systems will be impacting the United States as we head through Thursday. The center of Nicole will be moving across the Florida Peninsula, bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and a continued coastal flooding/storm surge threat. An area of low pressure in the upper Midwest will bring areas from the Dakotas and northern Minnesota the first major winter storm and blizzard for the season (including snow and ice) and on the warm side the potential of severe weather.
3-7" of rain is expected to fall across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states through Friday in association with Nicole. Meanwhile, a foot or more of snow could fall across portions of North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.
Here's a closer look at potential snow and ice totals expected across the Upper Midwest. Again, over a foot of snow could fall in areas like Bismarck. Meanwhile, some of the heavier ice potential will be in the Pierre and Aberdeen areas, where icing up to half an inch is possible.
Meanwhile, Nicole was still a tropical storm moving through the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday afternoon and is expected to make landfall along the eastern Florida coast Wednesday night as either a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane. The system will continue to impact the Southeast through the end of the week with heavy rain and strong/gusty winds, and along the coast we will watch the potential of storm surge and coastal flooding.
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Al Gore-affiliated group finds systematic emissions underreporting
More from Axios: "A coalition of groups using satellite observations, artificial intelligence and machine learning revealed on Wednesday the most comprehensive facility-level accounting of global carbon emissions. Why it matters: The information can be used by regulators, journalists and investors to put pressure on governments and corporations to cut their emissions. Driving the news: In a report released at COP27 in Egypt, the Climate TRACE coalition, which counts former Vice President Al Gore as a founding financial backer and participant, unveiled its latest census of global emissions from 2021. The organization can be thought of as a high-tech watchdog effort to keep tabs on planet-warming emissions from every country, industrial facility and power plant on Earth."
John Kerry just announced a new carbon credit plan at COP27
More from Protocol: "On Wednesday, John Kerry unveiled a plan for a new carbon credit program aimed at mobilizing private capital to help middle-income countries transition away from coal and move towards renewable energy. The plan, dubbed the Energy Transition Accelerator, was announced in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund and the Rockefeller Foundation. Kerry, who is the Biden administration's climate envoy, told an audience at the COP27 climate conference happening in Egypt that the goal is to "have this up and running no later than COP28," which will take place next year in Dubai. The accelerator would allow companies to buy carbon credits, which would fund renewable energy projects in developing countries. Those companies would then be able to count the emissions cuts towards the reaching of their own net zero goals."
Africa Loses 34% of GDP at 1.5° Warming, 'Grim' New Report Concludes
More from The Energy Mix: "Countries across Africa could lose 14% of their per capita GDP to climate change by 2050 and 34% by 2100, even if average global warming is held to 1.5°C, according to a report released this morning at this year's UN climate conference, COP 27, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. On the world's current emissions trajectory, which points to a roughly 2.7° increase, the losses would reach 20% by 2050 and 64% by 2100 for a continent already rocked by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising interest rates, a deepening debt crisis, and austerity imposed by donor nations and institutions, concludes the economic analysis produced by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis for Christian Aid."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
