Greenwood Fire Burning In Northern Minnesota

Image: Facebook screenshot


Monday Weather Outlook

We're back at the beginning of a work week once again, and it's going to be a warm but nice day outside. Morning temperatures start in the low to mid-60s with highs climbing into the mid-80s late in the afternoon with mainly sunny skies expected.

The warmest temperatures Monday will be out in western and northwestern/north-central portions of Minnesota, where highs will climb into the 90s. Highs in the 80s are expected most elsewhere, except the North Shore and southeastern Minnesota where highs will be in the 70s. Mainly sunny skies are expected statewide.


Temperatures and Dew Points For The Week Ahead

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be warmer than Monday and give us our best shot at hitting 90F sometime this week. As we head toward Thursday and Friday rain chances start to increase as a cold front approaches and moves through, helping to knock temperatures back for Friday and next weekend.

Dew points will continue to be on the rise this week, peaking late week as our rain chances increase along and ahead of that cold front - so don't be surprised for it to be a bit more humid out there the next few days.


Quiet Start To The Week - Rain Possible Late Week
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

Brown, crispy lawns. Rivers that are "scrapable" (where "paddlers may have to get out of their watercraft to avoid rocks", according to the DNR). Corn condition that is only 36% good to excellent. Such is the story of the 2021 drought, in which many areas of the state are running at least 5" below average for the year and some are 10-12" below average. In the Twin Cities (through Sunday) it is the 34th driest start to the year on record and 14th driest June 1st-August 15th on record.

And with the dry conditions, the wildfire threat continues. Last Tuesday, all campfires in Cook and Lake Counties across public and private land within state jurisdiction were banned. In all, 26 counties across northern and central Minnesota have some sort of fire ban from the Minnesota DNR, which includes 36 state parks and 50 state forests.

Quiet weather continues through mid-week with increasing humidity and highs near 90F Tuesday and Wednesday. A late week cold front will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms as well as cooler weather.


D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Lots of sunshine. Wake up 63. High 85. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Humidity increasing. Blue skies. Wake up 67. High 89. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy, hot, and humid. Wake up 71. High 91. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: A few afternoon storms. Wake up 72. High 88. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Scattered showers and t-storms. Wake up 70. High 85. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 5-15 mph.

SATURDAY: A few clouds. Late day pop-up storm? Wake up 63. High 80. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Wake up 62. High 80. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 16th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 0 minutes, and 45 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 47 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14 Hours Of Daylight? August 17th (13 hours, 57 minutes, and 56 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6:30 AM?: August 28th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:00 PM?: August 26th (8:00 PM)


This Day in Weather History
August 16th

1981: Chilly temperatures are felt across Minnesota. Tower reports a low of 33 degrees.


National Weather Forecast

On Monday, we will watch scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners region through the Central and Southern Plains into the Eastern United States. Fred will be approaching the northern Gulf Coast during the day, with landfall expected in the afternoon or evening. A cold front will bring rain chances to the Pacific Northwest.

The heaviest rain through Tuesday will fall across portions of the northern Gulf Coast and in the Southeast due to the approach and landfall of Fred. In some areas, at least 2-7" of rain could fall.


National Weather Forecast

Fred has become a tropical storm once again in the Gulf of Mexico, and it is expected to strengthen some before landfall along the northern Gulf Coast Monday afternoon or evening.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in place along the northern Gulf Coast along with Storm Surge Warnings ahead of Fred.

We are also tracking Tropical Depression Grace which has been bringing heavy rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It will continue to track across the Greater Antilles over the next few days, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds along with it. That includes in Haiti which was struck by at M7.2 earthquake Saturday.


Death toll from 7.2-magnitude earthquake in Haiti rises to over 700 people

More from CNN: "The Haitian government declared a state of emergency after a 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck the country Saturday, leaving at least 724 people dead and injuring another 2,800, according to Haiti's civil protection agency. The majority of deaths occurred in the south of the country, where 500 people are known to have died. The quake destroyed 2,868 homes and damaged another 5,410, officials from the agency said. The destruction has also pushed hospitals to the brink and blocked roads that would carry vital supplies."

Scientists Traced a Wooly Mammoth's Lifetime Journey, and It's Astonishing

More from VICE: "Some 17,000 years ago, a male woolly mammoth traversed tens of thousands of miles across Alaska before it died on the northern slope of the Brooks Range at the age of 28. Now, scientists have managed to reconstruct intimate details about the life of this extinct individual, which are written in the chemical composition of a tusk it left behind. The bygone mammoth walked an astonishing distance of about 43,000 miles (70,000 kilometers)—equal to nearly twice the circumference of Earth—according to a study published on Thursday in Science. After growing up with its family herd, the male struck out as an adult around age 15 and wandered widely across the northern wilderness for more than a decade until it likely starved to death during a harsh winter or spring season."

A Key Step for Limiting the Global Temperature Rise to 1.5 Degrees Celsius

More from Scientific American: "The 2015 Paris Agreement called for commitments to hold warming to "well below" 2 degrees C and pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. Since then, advances in climate science have found that the 2 degree C mark is insufficient to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, strengthening the need for an updated 1.5 degrees C target. Temperatures have already risen by 1.2 degrees C above preindustrial levels, resulting in devastating floods, fires and droughts reflected in distressing daily headlines. Every increment of warming beyond 1.5 degrees C will result in increasingly destructive and costly repercussions, particularly for the most vulnerable communities and countries in low-income and small island states. Now the heat is on the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental organization that shapes global energy policy, to convey this to its member governments, businesses and markets by centering a 1.5 degrees C–consistent pathway in its widely-read annual publication, the World Energy Outlook (WEO)."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser