In a piece for the Hill, Pollster Mark Mellman, who polled for the DFL in the Minnesota gubernatorial primary, writes of the problems in polling for a primary -- that "polls founder in low-turnout elections."
His examples? SurveyUSA and the Star Tribune (which he calls distinguished.) Both pegged the race for Dayton but by large margins.
Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the DFL-endorsed candidate, lost to Dayton in Aug. 10 race, by 1.58 percent, or about 7,000 votes.
Mellman, who wrote that he violated "a fundamental rule of my profession: that consultants never talk about their losses" by writing about the Kelliher loss, also allows himself some bragging.
"Our own polling, which used registration-based-sampling techniques to simulate the likely electorate, proved spot-on, showing Kelliher with the same one-point deficit a week out that she recorded on Election Day," he wrote.
