A Little More Snow PM Wednesday
Here's the simulated radar from AM Wednesday to AM Thursday, which shows a little more light snow drifting through the region, which could bring some light snow accumulations to the region. It won't be much, but there could be some slick spots as we head into the rush hour PM Wednesday and again AM Thursday.
Snowfall Potential Through AM Thursday
Again, snowfall amounts across the region late Wednesday into Thursday won't be terribly heavy, but there could be enough to cause a few issues on roads across the region.
"2023: 5th-Hottest U.S. Year with Record Billion-Dollar Disasters"
KEY CONCEPTS
- 2023 was the hottest year on record globally, and the 5th-hottest for the U.S., according to NOAA.
- Chart-topping temperature rankings are part of a decades-long trend of rapid warming caused mainly by carbon pollution.
- During 2023, the U.S. experienced a record 28 billion-dollar disasters. The previous annual record, 22 disasters, was set in 2020.
- Severe storms accounted for 19 (68%) of all billion-dollar disasters in 2023 — part of a rising trend of costly, dangerous, and deadly severe storms in the U.S.
- The frequency of billion-dollar disasters has increased dramatically. The average time between billion-dollar disasters in 2023 was just 12 days — compared to 82 days in the 1980s.
Snowfall Analysis Last 2 Days
Parts of the Midwest got pummeled by heavy snow over the last few days, but the Twin Cities was spared the worst of the weather. The MSP Airport only picked up 0.5" of snow, while some folks across far Southwestern MN saw nearly 6" to 8" of snow. Meanwhile, Sioux Falls, SD picked up close to a foot!
More Active Week Ahead
The storm system responsible for our snow earlier this week will continue to move east across the Great Lakes Region early Wednesday. There will be another brief shot of snow across the Midwest and Great Lakes PM Wednesday into early Thursday before another bigger storm system develops late week and into the weekend across the Midwest and Great Lakes late week and weekend.
An Arctic Plunge on the Way
Are you ready for winter? Take a look at the 850mb temp anomaly across the nation as we head through the next 7 to 10 days. Several storm systems moving across the nation will finally allow some Arctic air to funnel south into the Lower 48. This will be some of the coldest air of the season by far and it will also be some of the coldest air in the Midwest since February of last winter with daytime highs in the single digits and subzero overnight lows. Get ready!
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen ~6" of snow this season, which is nearly -16.0" below normal snowfall, which is the 22nd least snowy starts to any season on record. With only ~12" of snow in Duluth, they are more than 2 feet below normal snowfall and good enough for the 19th least snowy starts to any season on record. Marquette, MI is nearly 56" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, no climate site has a surplus this season. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday calls for quiet conditions in the morning with a little light snow in the afternoon. This weak clipper won't amount to much once again, but there could be a light coating across parts of the area. Temps will warm into the 20s, which will actually be a little above average for this time of the year.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities on Wednesday will start in the lower 20s in the morning and will warm into the upper 20s in the afternoon, which will still be a little above average for this time of the year. Skies will be cloudy in the morning and will feature a little light snow in the afternoon and evening, but it won't amount to much with light winds through the day.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for Wednesday will warm into the 20s for much of the state, which will be a little above average for this time of the year. We're also expecting a little snow late Wednesday with a light coating possible here and there.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will still be warmer than average by nearly +5F to +10F through midweek with temps warming in the upper 20s. It'll get quite a bit colder late week and especially this weekend with temps going below average for the first time in a long time. No question, it'll feel like winter this weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days shows temps tumbling quite a bit as we head into the weekend and early next week. Highs on Sunday and Monday may only warm into the single digits with overnight lows in the sub-zero range. This will be some of the coldest air of the season and the coldest temperatures we've had since February last winter.
Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps in the Twin Cities over the next several days will see a significant temperature drop. Readings will be MUCH colder as we approach the weekend and into early next week. Daytime highs may only warm into the single digits with overnight lows in the sub-zero range, which will be some of the coldest air in 11 months.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, colder than average temperatures look to stick around across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation and especially across the Midwest and Central US. Meanwhile, warmer than average temperatures will be found in the Southwestern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Western US and across parts of the Plains. Meanwhile, quieter weather will settle in across the Eastern US.
Plowable Snow Late Week - Numbing Next Week
By Paul Douglas
"Hey Paul, I have 12 weather apps on my phone. Why do I need you? Hahaha LOL!" Deep breath. I have apps too - when I need a weather snack. They have their place. The problem: they use only one weather model and there is no human interpretation. Meteorologists look at numerous models; some work better in certain scenarios than others. No app (or generative AI) factors context, perspective or experience, at least not yet. Our grandkids may someday get their daily weather from smooth-talking robots, but no time soon.
Big outbreaks of bitter air are often preceded by major snowstorms, even blizzards. A disruptive storm will shut down parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Friday into Sunday and Minnesota will be on the edge of plowable amounts of snow, mainly Friday into Saturday. Some 3-6" snow totals are possible at MSP, followed by a few days of single-digits highs and subzero lows next week. Typical for mid January. Good times.
Teens and 20s a few 20s in late January should feel like a (bad) vacation. Hahaha LOL!
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Coating of light snow. Winds: S 5-10. High 28.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of light snow. Winds: ENE 5-10. Low 18.
THURSDAY: Cloudy and dry. Winds: W 10-15. High 24.
FRIDAY: Heavier snow arrives. Poor travel. Winds: NE 15-25. Wake-up: 13. High 20.
SATURDAY: Snow slowly tapers. 3-6" amounts? Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 7. High 10.
SUNDAY: Dry and bitter. Feels like -20F. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: -6. High: 2.
MONDAY: Peeks of sun. Still numb. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: -9. High: 1.
TUESDAY: Glimmers of sun. Risk of a polar bear. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: -7. High 5.
This Day in Weather History
January 10th
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 10th
Average High: 23F (Record: 52F set in 2012)
Average Low: 9F (Record: -30F set in 1886)
Record Rainfall: 1.13" set in 1975
Record Snowfall: 4.0" set in 1975 & 1976
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 10th
Sunrise: 7:49am
Sunset: 4:51pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 02 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 1 Minute & 27 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 16 minutes
Moon Phase for January 10th at Midnight
0.2 Days After New Moon
Severe Threat on Thursday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is an SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms across the Southern US on Thursday with an elevated risk of damaging winds and even tornadoes.
Severe Threat on Friday
The threat for severe weather continues on Friday across the Southern and Southeastern US with the potential of damaging winds and even tornadoes. There will also be a chance of locally heavy rainfall and flooding.
National High Temps on Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday looks fairly mild across the Northeastern US with temps running nearly +10F to +15F above average. There will be areas of lingering rain/snow across the Great Lakes and Northeast with very gusty winds. The Western US will begin to cool down with temps running below average and areas of snow.
National Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday will be pretty across across the nation. A storm system will wrap up in the Northeastern US with areas of rain and snow. A clipper system will move through the Midwest with areas of light snow. There will also be another storm moving into the Western US with coastal rains and heavy snow through the high elevations.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows a significant storm system moving across the Eastern US with wide-spread effects from heavy snow to flooding rains and severe thunderstorms. There will also be quite a bit of wind associated with this storm, which will impact many in the Eastern US through midweek. There will be another surge of heavy coastal rains and snow in the Western US through midweek.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation moving through the Eastern US through the midweek time period. There will also be some fairly significant precipitation across the western and northwestern US as another potent storm system develops.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, Areas of heavy snow will continue across much of the nation. Some of the heaviest tallies will be found in the high elevations in the Western US, but there will be some fairly significant amounts through the Central US into the Great Lakes and also across the Northern New England States.
Climate Stories
"Wild Weather Ahead: How to Prep for 2024's Climate Shifts"
"Last year was the hottest on record. Here's how you can get ready for similarly sizzling temperatures and other extreme weather in 2024. We lived through the hottest year since records began more than a century ago, but looking back at 2023, it might not be defined in our memories by extreme heat. That's because it's unlikely to be the only hottest year that we experience. Our climate is changing, growing warmer due to the emissions from burning fossil fuels, and our weather is changing with it. Instead of being a freak outlier, extreme heat is something we'll need to be prepared to deal with on a much more regular basis, along with storms, floods and drought."
"5 Useful Apple Watch Apps For Keeping Tabs On The Weather"
"Keeping track of the weather is a necessity, especially if you plan on leaving the house or your work consists of being outside. There are ways to keep the weather and any updates that come your way close by, like looking at the radar on a weather service's website or simply viewing a weather widget on your iPhone. But are there ways to keep the weather even closer? The Apple Watch allows you to have many applications you have on your iPhone, and several weather app options are available within that list. When the weather changes or there is a special alert, you'll be notified quicker than you can pick up your iPhone. The iPhone and your Apple Watch will already come with Weather, Apple's default weather app."
"Climate Crisis Is Making Sugar and Sweets More Expensive, Experts Say"
"One of the biggest commodities in the world, sugar, is being impacted by the climate crisis. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), climate change has driven the cost of sugar globally to its highest levels since 2011. The planet is heating up, leading to extreme weather that affects foods like sugar, beer and coffee, reported The Guardian. An extreme drought in Thailand — the second largest sugar producer in the world after Brazil — has threatened sugarcane crops, as has severe dry weather in India, another of the top three sugar exporters. Concerns about lower production have driven up prices of sugar and its byproducts, like chocolate and other sweet treats. "You can say El Niño has a sweet tooth because it sort of eats or takes away much of the sugar in the world," Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities markets at Rabobank, a Dutch banking and financial services company, told CNBC. "Sugar prices have probably already been passed on [to consumers] but certainly for chocolate we should expect a big increase at retail level — and El Niño is certainly something to watch."
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