HOT Tuesday Ahead
Here's a look highs around the region on Tuesday. Readings around the region will be well above average with highs warming into the 80s and 90s. The Twin Cities could warm into the mid 90s, which will be near +15F above average and potentially the warmest day of the year.
Top 10 Hottest Day of 2022 So Far in Minneapolis
Here are the top 10 warmest days of 2022 so far in Minneapolis. Note that we've only hit 90F or warmer twice. 92F was the warmest day, which was on May 12th. The forecast on Tuesday if 94F, if it holds it will be the warmest day of the year so far. Last year, there 12 days in June that warmed into the 90s.
Spotty T-Showers This Weekend
Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to PM Sunday. It appears that our Saturday will start on somewhat of a soggy note with showers and storms sliding southeast through the region. There could be a few isolated t-showers in the afternoon on Saturday, but most locations will stay dry during the afternoon. Sunday afternoon could also feature a few isolated PM t-showers.
Precipitation Potential Through Next Week
Here's the weekend rainfall potential, which suggests a few hundredths of an inch of rain across parts of central Minnesota. Most of the rain will move through during the first half of Saturday.
Precipitation Potential Through Next Week
Here's the extended precipitation outlook through the end of next week. There will be a few chances of showers and storms through the middle part of next week. Some locations could see up to nearly 1" of rain across western Minnesota.
Minnesota Drought Update
Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 3% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday shows high temps warming into the mid/upper 70s with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the rain will fall through the first half of the day with spotty afternoon t-showers possible.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temperatures starting in the mid 60s in the morning and warming into the mid/upper 70s by the afternoon. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be likely in the morning with an isolated t-storm in the afternoon. West to Southwesterly winds will gust close to 15mph during the day.
Weather Outlook on Saturday
Temps around the region on Saturday will warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be close to if not slightly above average in many locations. It'll be a little cooler next to Lake Superior with highs only in the 60s, but there is some heat building to the Southwest.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running at or slightly above average through the Weekend. However, early next week with be quite hot with readings warming into the upper 80s and 90s. Get ready for some heat!
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days will be a bit unsettled at times through early next week. Temperatures will be the big story with temps running well above average early next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will turn quite warm into next week with some 80s and 90s showing up.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the central and southern US with cooler than average temps in the northwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows drier weather in place across much of the central and eastern US. The Western US could actually see more active weather with increasing precipitation chances.
Somewhat Soggy Saturday. Heating Up Next Week
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Happy 2nd to last Saturday of astronomical spring. June 21st is the Summer Solstice and the longest day of the year, before daylight hours start dwindling. It will be a bit soggy this morning with a few T-showers sliding southeast along the I-94 corridor. Many will see drier weather the rest of the day, except along the Minnesota River Valley where a few storms will develop this afternoon.
By the way, June tends to be Minnesota's most tornadic month of the year, averaging nearly 15 twisters. June 17th, 2010 was one of the worst tornadic outbreaks in Minnesota's history when a record 48 tornadoes spun up across 22 counties over 6 hours. That year a record 113 tornadoes were recorded across the state, a record 71 of which touched down in June.
I am happy to report that no tornadoes are the forecast, but a surge of hot and sticky weather is on the way. By Tuesday, highs will warm into the 90swith more 90s possible later in the week. Winds will be breezy during that time providing some relief, but A/Cs will be humming no question!
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Chance of T-showers. Winds: WSW. High: 79.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Slight chance of shower or storm. Winds: NNE 5-10. Low: 62.
SUNDAY: Isolated PM Rain & Rumbles. Winds: ESE 5. High: 81.
MONDAY: Breezy & warmer. T-showers possible. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.
TUESDAY: Hot & Sticky. Elevated winds. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 74. High: 94.
WEDNESDAY: Windy with a chance of t-storms. Winds: WSW 15-25. Wake-up: 68. High: 86.
THURSDAY: Sunny & breezy. Very summerlike. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 65. High: 85.
FRIDAY: Heating up again. Winds: WSW 10-15. Wake-up: 65. High: 91.
This Day in Weather History
June 11th
2011: Severe thunderstorms bring extremely strong wind to central Minnesota. An unofficial wind gust of 119 mph is reported at a seed farm 1 mile northwest of Atwater. A storm chaser's car was battered when he got too close to the storm. Most of the windows in the car were broken.
1996: 5.91 inches of rain fall at Mankato. Mudslides close roads, including Hwy. 169, and push a trailer home 20 feet down a hill.
1922: A hailstorm at Maple Plain causes extensive damage to crops.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 11th
Average High: 78F (Record: 96F set in 1956)
Average Low: 59F (Record: 40F set in 1903)
Record Rainfall: 2.58" set in 1975
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 2017
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 11th
Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 8:59pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 32 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 44 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 46 Minutes
Moon Phase for June 11th at Midnight
2.2 Days Until Full "Flower" Moon
"11:14 pm CDT (May 15th) Flowers are abundant everywhere by this time of year. This moon was also known as the Full Corn Planting Moon or the Milk Moon. This full moon will also undergo a Blood Moon total lunar eclipse. North America will have a ringside seat for it, as totality will occur between the late evening hours of May 15 and the after-midnight hours of May 16 depending on your location. Totality will last 85 minutes."
National High Temps Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday shows well above average temps in the Southern and Southwestern US with record highs possible in many spots. Some of this heat could be life-threatening with heat index values reach 105F to 115F.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the national weather outlook through PM Sunday, which shows spotty showers and storms over the weekend. Some of the storms in the Midwest could be strong to severe both Saturday and Sunday with wind and hail the primary concerns. There could also be pockets of heavy rainfall through early next week.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the northern tier of the nation. There will also be more active weather in the eastern US, but drier weather will be found in the Southern Plains and the Southwest.
Climate Stories
"Austin Residents Ordered to Limit Water Usage as Dry Spell Sweeps Region"
"The Lone Star State is being pummeled by high temperatures and dry weather. The city of Austin is starting to feel the effects of the ongoing drought in the American Southwest. Earlier this week, Austin began restrictions as water that is stored in lakes Buchanan and Travis, dropped significantly, the Austin American-Statesman reported. Under the stage 1 drought restrictions, residents can use hose-end sprinklers only twice a week, and waitstaff at restaurants can only serve water if a patron requests it, KUT reported. Residents can only water via irrigation sprinklers once a week, overnight. Anyone who violates these rules could be fined up to $500 dollars, according to the Statesman. This is the first time in three years that the state has issued water restrictions."
"The most reliable hurricane models, based on their 2021 performance"
"For those puzzling over the various hurricane computer forecast models to figure out which one to believe, the best answer is: Don't believe any of them. Put your trust in the National Hurricane Center, or NHC, forecast. Although an individual model may outperform the official NHC forecast in some situations, the 2021 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report documents that overall, it is very difficult for any one model to consistently beat the NHC forecasts for track and for intensity. During the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, NHC track forecasts had accuracies near or better than the five-year average, with two-day and three-day track forecasts setting new records for accuracy. Over the past 30 years, one- to three-day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 75%; over the past 20 years, four-day and five-day track forecast errors by 50 – 60%. Those numbers amount to an extraordinary accomplishment, one undoubtedly leading to huge savings in lives, damage, and emotional angst. The improvement in track forecast accuracy has slowed down in recent years, however, suggesting that forecasts may be nearing their limit in accuracy because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere."
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
"Cape Town set for 'hottest ever' June day – as EIGHT temperature records smashed"
"It's been rather tropical in the south-west this week, and several June temperatures records have been broken. So, is Cape Town next? File this one under 'the impact of climate change', please: An unseasonable wave of warm weather has baked the Western Cape over the past few days, with Cape Town likely heading towards a RECORD temperature for June on Friday afternoon. WINTER HEATWAVE TAKES HOLD IN THE SOUTH-WEST. The SA Weather Service has confirmed that temperatures will easily top 30C in parts of the Mother City today. The archives suggest that the hottest ever June day saw the mercury reach 31C, and there's a good chance that record will fall on 10 June 2022."
See more from The South African HERE:
