Warm, Sunny Day Thursday - Storms Possible Overnight
A warm and sunny Thursday is expected in the Twin Cities, with morning temperatures in the low 60s and highs topping off a few degrees above average in the mid-80s.
It should be a fairly quiet day statewide on Thursday, with mainly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs will generally be in the 70s and 80s - several degrees above average. Highs along parts of the North Shore will be a few degrees below average in the 60s.
Meanwhile, as we head into Thursday Night, we will be watching the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms that could be on the strong side in western and southern Minnesota. Hail and wind would be the greatest threats where that Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) is in place.
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Approaching 90F Into The Weekend
It'll be the third weekend of July this weekend, and we are looking at warm and (at least partly) unsettled weather. If your travels take you out of town already on Friday, we will be watching the potential for some showers and storms. The greatest chance of Friday may be during the morning hours (with anything lingering from Thursday Night) with more scattered storms possible Friday Night into Saturday. Sunday looks dry and sunny at the moment. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, and at least Sunday has a chance at breaking the 90F degree mark again.
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Eleven 90F-Degree Days So Far
With the potential of 90s in the forecast this weekend, it's a good time to take a look at how many we've had so far in 2022. MSP has observed eleven so far (with one of those being that 101F day from June 20th). Our 1991-2020 average is 13 days.
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Meteorology Smack Talk Is Fun!
By Paul Douglas
"I'd like to have a job where I get paid for being right half the time!" I've heard this from time to time over the years. At first I got defensive. Now I shrug and say "Yeah, it's a pretty good gig." Forecasting the future is harder than it looks. And by the way, meteorology accuracy for the 24-hour forecast is 88%, with dramatic accuracy gains from Days 3-7.
Timing summer T-storms is just as tricky as predicting snow down to the inch. We can tell when conditions are ripe, but individual storms are too small to show up on weather models. Many days Mother Nature just does her own thing.
Our free (Canadian) A/C is over, but the sun stays out most of today. T-storms tonight may pack locally heavy rain, which we need right now. A few stray storms spill into Friday morning and Saturday.
And then the heat machine kicks in with low to mid 90s Sunday into Tuesday, followed by slight relief later next week.
For the record, I can predict sunrise/sunset times with 100% accuracy. Everything else is a crap-shoot.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
THURSDAY: Sunny. T-storms tonight. Wake up 62. High 86. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: AM storms. Sticky PM sunshine. Wake up 70. High 88. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Muggy sunshine, few pop-up storms. Wake up 71. High 89. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Sunny and hot. Wake up 72. High 92. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 3-8 mph.
MONDAY: Sunny and even hotter. Wake up 74. High 94. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Steamy with a few strong T-storms. Wake up 76. High 92. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, feeling better. Wake up 71. High 87. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 14th
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 17 minutes, and 25 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 33 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 8th (8:29 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
July 14th
2003: At least eleven tornadoes hit Minnesota. Baseball-sized hail is reported at Indus in Koochiching County.
1936: The all-time record high is reported in the Twin Cities, with 108 degrees at the downtown Minneapolis office. 71 people would die in the Twin Cities on this day due to the extreme heat.
1916: Heavy downpours at New Ulm dump over seven inches of rain in seven hours.
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National Weather Forecast
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains into the Southeast due to a trough of low pressure across the region and a nearby frontal boundary. That boundary stretches just off the Northeast coast, and with an area of low pressure along it, we'll see the potential of showers and storms in the Northeast. Scattered storms will also be possible from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest.
The heaviest rain through the end of the week will fall across portions of the Southeast, where upwards of 3" could fall.
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US emissions cost the world $1.9 trillion in economic damages
More from The Grist: "The United States has caused more damage to global economies than any other nation by burning fossil fuels, causing $1.9 trillion in lost gross domestic product between 1990 and 2014, according to a new study released Tuesday by Dartmouth College. Environmental advocates have warned for years that greenhouse gas emissions from wealthy nations are triggering devastating climate impacts like droughts, heat waves, floods, and hurricanes, leading to income losses in poorer countries. But the Dartmouth researchers put a number to that assertion, finding that the five largest emitters – the U.S., China, Russia, India, and Brazil – collectively caused $6 trillion in losses worldwide, or about 14 percent of annual global GDP, over the study's quarter-century period."
The Other Amazon Just Set a New Deforestation Record
More from Gizmodo: "The Amazon rainforest has reached a new record for deforestation for the first half of this year. Satellite imagery of the rainforest taken from January to June show how 4,000 square kilometers (1,500 square miles) of forest was destroyed in the last six months, the Associated Press reports. This has been the fastest rate of deforestation to occur in half a year since recording of this began about seven years ago. This is an area about five times the size of NYC and is the largest loss of forest since 2016, according to YaleEnvironment360. The deforested area recorded for the first half of 2022 was about 80% larger than the destruction reported for the first half of 2018, according to an analysis from the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM)."
Dangerous heatwaves engulf parts of China, US and Europe
More from The Guardian: "Dangerous heatwaves are engulfing parts of China, Europe, south-west and central US this week, as dozens of cities have found themselves dealing with soaring summer temperatures. By Tuesday afternoon, at least 86 Chinese cities in eastern and southern parts of the country had issued heat alerts. Chinese meteorologists forecast temperatures in some cities would top 40C (104F) in the next 24 hours. In Shanghai, China's most populous city, the authorities have told its 25 million people to prepare for unusually hot weather. Since record-keeping began in 1873, Shanghai has had only 15 days with temperatures above 40C."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser