What are sundogs and how do they form?
"A sundog is a concentrated patch of sunlight that is occasionally seen to the right or the left of the sun or even on both sides of our star in the sky simultaneously. Also called mock suns or parhelia, meaning "with the sun," according to the National Weather Service. Sundogs are part of a family of atmospheric optical illusions including moon haloes and the closely related sun haloes. All of these phenomena are caused by the refraction of sunlight by ice crystals in the atmosphere. Sundogs typically appear as a pair of patches of light with subtle colors which manifest at the same altitude over the horizon as the sun. They can appear in a variety of forms, sometimes as colorful spots, or other times, so intense and bright they appear to be two additional suns in the sky. Sundogs are formed when light passes through hexagonal plate crystals of ice, suspended in cirrus or cirrostratus clouds located at altitudes of around 20,000 feet (6,000 meters) and higher, up to 40,000 feet (12,000 meters). These ice crystals can also be found much closer to the ground in extremely cold climates where temperatures drop below -22 degrees Fahrenheit (-30 degrees Celsius) as a meteorological phenomenon called "diamond dust."
Welcome to the Arctic
Take a look at the 850mb temp anomaly across the nation as we head through the next 7 days. Some of the coldest air of the season by far will continue across much of the nation with many dealing with subzero wind chill values.
COLD Mid January Temperatures
Temps in the Twin Cities over the next several days will continue to see very cold temps with readings running well below average for this time of the year. As we approach the weekend and into next week, we'll see a pretty dramatic shift toward warm temps once again.
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen 7" of snow this season, which is nearly -16.0" below normal snowfall.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, no climate site has a surplus this season. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday calls for very cold temps with readings holding in the subzero range all day. Feels like temps will be even colder and into the -20s & -30s much of the daylight hours.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities on Monday will be in the subzero range all day with feels like temps even colder thanks to gusty WNW winds around 15mph to 25mph.
Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Monday
Feels like temps through the day will be around the -20s to -30s through the entire day. It will be VERY cold.
Weather Outlook For Monday
The weather outlook for Monday will be very cold with highs hovering in the single digits below zero, which is nearly -20F to -30F below average for this time of the year.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be well below average for this time of the year with readings nearly -10F to -25F below average through the week
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days shows well below average temps through the week ahead. The coldest readings will be through the early week time frame.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, warmer than average temperatures returning across much of the nation. After a very cold week ahead, it looks like El Nino warmth returns.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across much of the nation and especially across the Southern US.
No Humidity Or Bugs This Week
By Paul Douglas
How did our ancestors survive winters in Minnesota? 5 months of hibernation and "Jacob keep the fire going!" Did they complain? Did they blame the weather people? Could they even imagine heated seats and steering wheels? They were the definition of tough. So were Native Americans who passed on cold weather coping skills for thousands of years.
I suspect that this may wind up being the coldest week of a milder-than-average winter, overall. Mostly single-digit highs with 3-4 more nights below zero. No records, but annoyingly cold.
It will be too cold for any significant snow anytime soon. 3-4" of snow will fall today from northern Alabama into Nashville. That should be interesting.
A gusher of milder, Pacific air returns next week with a streak of 30s. Yes, 30s will be sweet relief. Models hint at a little drizzle or ice. We'll see. El Nino is keeping all the big storms south/east of Minnesota. MSP has picked up only 7.1" of snow this winter. Normal is 23.7". Last year at this time? 48.3" had fallen.
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Some sun, feels like -25F. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 1.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and cold. Feels like -30F. Winds: W 15. Low -6.
TUESDAY: More clouds, annoying breeze. Winds: W 15-25. High 6.
WEDNESDAY: Quiet. Not quite as Nanook. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 2. High 13.
THURSDAY: Fading sun, a little snow late? Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 2. High 11.
FRIDAY: Reinforcing shot of brrr. WC: -20. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: -1. High 5.
SATURDAY: Sunny with less wind. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: -5. High 15.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, average temps return. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 7. High: 24.
This Day in Weather History
January 15th
1972: Cold air invades the region with a minimum temperature of -33 degrees F at Alexandria, -32 at Eau Claire, and -29 at the Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 15th
Average High: 23F (Record: 43F set in 1990)
Average Low: 8F (Record: -37F set in 1888)
Record Rainfall: 0.45" set in 1969
Record Snowfall: 3.2" set in 1953
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 15th
Sunrise: 7:47am
Sunset: 4:57pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 10 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 1 Minute & 46 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 24 minutes
Moon Phase for January 15th at Midnight
1.9 Days Before First Quarter Moon
Record Cold Highs on Monday
There will be a number of record cold high temps across the Central US on Monday. All the circled locations will have the potential of seeing this happen, even down to the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana - BRR!
National High Temps on Monday
The weather outlook on Monday looks very cold across the Central US with temps running nearly -30F below average for this time of the year.
National Weather Outlook For Sunday
Areas of snow will continue across the Great Lakes. There will be more snow and ice across the Central and Southern US into Monday, which could cause some major travel concerns.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather Outlook through Tuesday shows areas of snow and ice on Monday across the Southern US, which could cause some travel concerns. Another storm looks to take shape in the Pacific Northwest with heavy rain along the coast and high elevation snow.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Western US and especially along the Coast and the high elevations. There will also be some decent precipitation in the Eastern US.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, Heavy snow will continue to fall in the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some heavy precipitation in the Great Lakes and parts of the Eastern US.
Climate Stories
"The Feeling of Losing Snow"
"Snow is an essential part of how people in cold climates experience the winter, and a key source of water in many parts of the world. But new research shows that the snowpack—snow that stays on the ground in cold weather—is disappearing at an alarming rate as temperatures rise. I chatted with my colleague Zoë Schlanger, who wrote about the new paper in The Atlantic this week, about how diminishing snow would change daily life. In-Place Homesickness Lora Kelley: Could you walk me through what this new research found about the relationship between rising temperature and snowpack loss? Zoë Schlanger: This paper showed the relationship between changes in temperature and shrinking snow levels over time. There's still a lot of variability year to year—this research doesn't suggest there won't be one-off years that are very cold and snowy—but the long-term trend is made very clear, and it's not good at all."
See more from The Atlantic HERE
"Tahoe avalanche survivor describes being buried under the snow before his rescue"
"Jason Parker was snowboarding at Palisades Tahoe on Wednesday when an avalanche erupted on the mountain, burying him underneath feet of snow and killing one man. It was the first day the KT-22 chairlift was open at the ski resort in Olympic Valley, California, and Parker and his fiancée both had a day off, so, despite the low visibility and strong winds, they decided to hit the slopes. "It was open, and we took advantage of it," Parker, who lives just outside downtown Reno, told NBC News. When they reached the peak of KT-22, Parker and his partner turned right and had a successful trip down the mountain. They then went back up to do it again, but this time, around 9:25 a.m. local time, they went to the left. Parker, 52, an experienced skier and snowboarder with 35 years under his belt, headed down the mountain first with his partner trailing. Eventually, he said, he felt some "slough come by me," which was "nothing to worry about." "Five seconds later, that's when the avalanche hit me," Parker said. "It swept me off my feet, threw me onto my back."
"I walked through every weather condition imaginable" – hiker sets jaw-dropping new Triple Crown record"
"On Saturday, December 23rd, when most of America had clocked out for Christmas, a new record was quietly set in the world of thru-hiking. Billy Meredith of Georgia logged a new Fastest Known Time in the The Calendar Year Triple Crown, completing hiking's most punishing feat in just 234 days. The Triple Crown of Hiking entails completing the Appalachian Trail, which runs some 2,200 miles from Georgia to Maine, the Pacific Crest Trail, which stretches for 2,650 miles from Mexico to Canada and the Continental Divide Trail which follows the spine of the Rocky Mountains for approximately 3,000 miles. Many hikers take years to complete this epic journey, but Meredith joins a small group of less than 20 hikers to have accomplished it within a single calendar year. In an Instagram post, which you can view below, the hiker shared details of his astonishing achievement, which saw him facing off against some of the most adverse weather conditions possible, and very little in the way of rest days."
