The starting point of a Twins turnaround has to be the rotation — and the sort of improvement that's needed will require Twins officials to change the way they view the free-agent marketplace.
The Twins have secured a fourth consecutive 90-loss season. The fallout is hitting the franchise in the pocketbook. At the start of the season, television ratings had dropped by half since 2010. Attendance has taken a hit, as the Twins announced their smallest crowd in Target Field history this month.
And there are people in the organization who have told me that now that the All-Star Game has taken place and there's no reason to have priority seating for the event, there is a chance the season ticket base will shrink by 5,000 this offseason. Is that enough for the Pohlad family to look at serious measures to correct this problem? Enough to dive headfirst into the free-agent pitching market?
If it is, that means their name must be attached to Jon Lester, Max Scherzer or James Shields as free-agent pitching targets when the hot stove league warms up. Yes, the Twins spent money on free agents Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes last offseason. The Big Three of this year's free-agent class likely will cost in excess of $20 million a year — maybe double Nolasco's four-year, $49 million deal.
But money should not be a problem: The Opening Day payroll of $113 million in 2011 has dropped to $85.5 million this season.
If the Twins fail to sign an ace, the cost might be even more daunting. It means they must be willing to package top prospects to trade for an ace or at least a No. 2 starter if one is available. It will be expensive either way, but the cycle of losing doesn't end until the rotation is upgraded.
The Twins of the early 2000s didn't turn things around until Brad Radke was joined by Eric Milton and Joe Mays in 2001. That team started 50-31 before fading. The next year, they added Rick Reed, absorbed injuries to Radke, Milton and Mays and reached the postseason. When Milton was injured for most of 2003, the Twins signed Kenny Rogers. That move, coupled with the arrival of some kid named Johan Santana, enabled the winning to continue.
Those were solid moves (well, Reed for one year). In recent years, the Twins have handed starts to Cole DeVries, Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Albers and Samuel Deduno. All have pitched themselves out of town. They signed Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey as free agents and claimed they were building depth. That's not how you build depth. Depth is built by bringing in top talent and pushing the rest of the roster down.
