Farm System Folly
The Twins need to be active in the free-agent market even though they have the third-best farm system, according to Baseball America's 2014 rankings. History suggests a rich farm system is not always a predictor of future success:
• A 2012 study by Matt Swartz of FanGraphs found that payroll "can tell you about four times as much about the difference between teams over the next five years as farm-system rankings can."
• The Pirates, ranked No. 1 this year, were also No. 1 in 1997. Pittsburgh had the third-worst record in the decade following 1997.
• Texas had the top system in 2012 (as well as 2009). The Rangers have baseball's worst record.
