Mostly Dry Friday, But Precipitation Chance Returns Late Friday Into Saturday

Well, how was that for some early November warmth? Almost every climate location across Minnesota set or tied record highs Wednesday (sorry Rochester, you missed out on tying yours by two degrees!). That included the Twin Cities, which broke it by a whole four degrees!

November 2nd, 2022, now goes down as the third warmest November day on record. You'll notice six of the top ten warmest November days have been since the turn of the century, and five of the ten occurred either in 2020 or 2022. It's also worth noting that all of the top ten occurred within the first eight days of the month - a sign for sure that this type of warmth is not really sustainable through the rest of November. The latest 70F+ on record occurred on November 17, 1953. Meanwhile, the last 60F+ day on record was December 6, 1939.

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Forecast loop from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

Note that if you're planning on heading out Thursday evening or during the overnight hours there will be a few showers around with the first wave of moisture due to a cold front moving through the region. By Friday morning, a few snowflakes could mix in mainly north and west of the metro.

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Forecast loop from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

With that cold front pretty much through the state as we head into Friday, temperatures will be a lot closer to/below average in the 30s and 40s. While most of the state should see dry conditions throughout the day, we'll watch some rain/snow chances to begin the day in the Arrowhead/western Wisconsin and then that second batch of rain will start to move in during the afternoon in southeastern Minnesota.

It's back to reality on Friday after our stretch of second/third/whatever-number-this-was summer. Mainly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day with again a few rain chances at times (early and again in the afternoon). Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the low to mid-40s in the metro.

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As we continue to push that low-pressure area out of the region Saturday, precipitation chance will continue into the midday hours across southern Minnesota and the metro, and into the afternoon hours in the Arrowhead. Could there be snowflakes (or some sort of wintry precipitation) mixed in? It's a possibility. Do I think it would really accumulate? No (and if it did it wouldn't likely be much) - not with air temperatures in the 40s and some warmer ground temperatures due to our recent warm stretch.

So if you're out in the deer stand early Saturday, anticipate wetter weather across the eastern half of Minnesota, with drier conditions as you head farther west along with sunnier conditions throughout the day. Morning temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with many areas climbing into the 40s for highs.

While we need the precipitation, southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin will be the winners with this system where 1-3" of rain could fall. A precipitation gradient will work northwestward across the state, with around half an inch possible for the metro, around a quarter inch for St. Cloud, and then no precipitation for portions of western/northwestern Minnesota. If we did get half an inch at MSP, that would be more than what we saw in September and October COMBINED (0.48").

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With the precipitation chances and cloud cover, temperatures will only be in the mid-40s for highs on Saturday. While we push the precipitation out for Sunday, we'll still see a mix of sun and clouds to partly sunny skies. Highs, however, will climb back into the low 50s.

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After a little break in the precipitation Sunday and Monday here in the metro, we'll start to see more rain chances move in as we head toward Election Day Tuesday and the rest of the week. Currently, the models do output the potential for several systems to move through for the middle and end of next week which could bring us some much-needed moisture. I'm not going to get too excited just yet, though, as the past few systems have started off promising five to seven days in advance and then slowly crept eastward... what's that saying, "don't predict rain in a drought"? That's how I somewhat feel right now. But let's all cross our fingers and hope!

And this is just one reason we need to hope for some appreciable rainfall. The latest drought monitor was released on Thursday, and once again drought has expanded across the state with an increase in all categories. While the greatest increase was in the Moderate Drought category (44.79% last week to 51.98% this week), we did see the two Extreme Drought areas get connected together, now stretching from the metro to southwestern Minnesota.

As we look at the week-to-week comparison - no green anywhere on this map once again, only yellow indicating the worsening conditions.

I found this to be an interesting map from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, looking at how many cumulative days you have to go back before you will have accumulated an inch of total precipitation. In some areas of the state right now you have to go back 70+ days to get the cumulative precipitation total to equal an inch, and in the metro, it is over 60 days.

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Grateful For A Delayed Winter Season
By Paul Douglas

I'm grateful to live in Minnesota, where we have 4 seasons, with an extra helping of winter. Grateful for our lakes, which could use some additional water right about now. Happy to see 70s in early November, as unnerving as that is on some level.

Showers taper this morning, with temperatures stuck in the low 40s. A storm forecast to track from Kansas City to the UP of Michigan will brush MSP with rain Saturday, and it may be cold enough aloft for a little sleet to mix in.

A dry Monday gives way to Election Day showers (50s to near 60) with more 60s likely Wednesday and Thursday. Maybe a stray thunderstorm? In Minnesota. In mid-November. Wow.

The other shoe (boot) drops late next week. Two weekends out we may see 30s and stray flurries. Something for everyone.

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FRIDAY: Early shower. Cloudy. Wake up 43. High 45. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Cold rain, heaviest south/east of MSP. Wake up 38. High 42. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Peeks of sun, cool breeze. Wake up 39. High 54. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds, light winds. Wake up 32. High 47. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Damp with a few rain showers. Wake up 43. High 59. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Passing T-storm. Wintry mix at night? Wake up 58. High 65. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 4th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 1 minute, and 13 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 42 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 10 Hours Of Daylight?: November 5th (9 hours, 58 minutes, 32 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before The Time Change: November 5th (7:57 AM)
*Earliest Sunset Before The Time Change: November 5th (5:55 PM)

This Day in Weather History
November 4th

1982: 20 inches of snow falls in the Kabatogema area.

1901: With a high temperature of only 22 and a low of 15, 175 boxcars of potatoes are in peril at the Minneapolis rail yard. Workers scrambled to move the rail cars full of tubers in roundhouses and transfer potatoes to refrigerated cars. Individual stoves had to be purchased on the spot for 59 remaining cars. Thankfully, most of the spuds were saved.

1853: A cold snap begins at Ft. Snelling. The next four days would be 16 degrees or lower.

1727: The first outdoor celebration at the chapel of Fort Beauharnois on Lake Pepin is postponed due to 'variableness of the weather.'

As a system moves through the central United States on Friday, storms and snow will be possible from the Great Lakes back into the lower Mississippi Valley and the Rockies. A few storms in the Southern Plains will likely be severe - more on that in a moment. We'll also watch a system in the Pacific Northwest bring heavy rain and heavy mountain snow.

Looking at the severe side of the central United States storm, an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3 of 5) of severe weather is in place for Friday and Friday Night across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Initial storms that form Friday afternoon will eventually form into a line and work eastward into the overnight hours. Tornadoes (some strong), damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible.

With the system in the central United States, we could see pockets of 3"+ of rain through the first half of the weekend. Meanwhile, with the system out west, heavy rain of over 3" will be possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest. It'll also bring the potential of feet of snow to some of the mountain ranges.

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- D.J. Kayser