Mainly Cloudy Thursday - A Few Light Showers For Some
Forecast loop: Thursday 1 AM to 7 PM.
As we head into Thursday, we'll be watching a system off to our west that may sneak in a few rain showers or sprinkles across mainly western and northern Minnesota throughout the day. These are expected to be on the light side - no drought-busting rains by any means - and mainly avoid the metro.
Maybe a tenth to two-tenths of an inch of rain will be possible in southwestern Minnesota late Wednesday night into Thursday where the precipitation is most consistant, otherwise, very light precipitation is possible mainly north and west of the metro.
So we watch those very light rain/sprinkle chances mainly north and west of the metro (maybe in southeast Minnesota as well) as highs climb into the 50s across much of the state. These highs on Thursday will range from around average to up to 15F degrees above average.
As we look closer to the Twin Cities on Thursday, I expected mostly cloudy skies - but we should squeeze out a least a few peeks of sunshine during the day. Temperatures climb from around 40F as the kids head to the bus stop to the mid-50s by the time they come home.
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Quiet Weather For The Last Weekend Of October
Quiet weather is expected as we head into the last weekend of the month of October with highs that are up to around 10F degrees above average. While mainly sunny skies are expected on Friday, I'm expecting a mix of sun and clouds on Saturday as the Twin Cities will be right on the cloud/sun boundary (more clouds as you head north across Minnesota, sunnier skies for southern Minnesota). Sunday may start off on the sunnier side of things before cloud cover moves in by the midday hours.
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No Spooky Weather This Halloween
No spooky weather is expected as the kids head out for trick or treating Monday evening across the metro. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures falling through the 50s - so heavy jackets won't necessarily cover up those costumes! Winds will be out of the southerly direction up to 10 mph.
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Second Driest Fall On Record So Far
One word that can easily describe meteorological fall (since September 1st) so far this year: DRY. The Twin Cities hasn't even picked up half an inch of precipitation over the past (almost) two months, making it the second driest September 1st-October 26th on record.
Overall, it's been quite a dry year for the Twin Cities as well. I went and looked at our rankings from the beginning of each month through Wednesday, and each time period is squarely in the top 20 driest. Here's the breakdown of those rankings for MSP:
- Since October 1: 8th driest
- Since September 1: 2nd driest
- Since August 1: 20th driest
- Since July 1: 7th driest
- Since June 1: 2nd driest
- Since May 1: 4th driest
- Since April 1: 10th driest
- Since March 1: 19th driest
- Since February 1: 20th driest
- Since January 1: 18th driest
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The Drought of '22 Is Getting Worse
By Paul Douglas
For the record I am pro-lukewarm, but right now a raw 40-degree day with windswept rain would qualify as "great weather". Drought continues to spread and intensify. The period since June 1 is now the second driest since 1871 for the Twin Cities, according to NOAA data.
We are now faced with the Minnehaha Ditch and the Mississippi Creek. According to Yale Climate Connections Mississippi water levels have reached all-time record lows in 3 states, hampering barge traffic. Drought has caused more than $9 billion in damage and delays, and now it's spreading into the Ohio Valley. Chicago and St. Louis have picked up heavy rain, but storms continue to detour all around us. Still waiting for the pattern to shift.
Clouds leak a few sprinkles today but dry, dusty, lukewarm weather is the rule Friday into Wednesday of next week with a string of 60s. 70s are possible as we sail into November.
Will it last? [Insert muffled laughter here]. A cold slap sparks highs near 40F late next week. Rainfall remains elusive.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
THURSDAY: Clouds, few sprinkles. Wake up 40. High 56. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Wake up 43. High 60. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Blue sky, feels like September. Wake up 44. High 64. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY: Sunny and beautiful. Wake up 42. High 60. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Sunny, balmy Halloween. Wake up 41. High 65. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: What November? Mild sunshine. Wake up 50. High 70. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Mild start, windy and cooler PM. Wake up 57. High 65. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 27th
*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 23 minutes, and 35 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 53 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 10 Hours Of Daylight?: November 5th (9 hours, 58 minutes, 32 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before The Time Change: November 5th (7:57 AM)
*Earliest Sunset Before The Time Change: November 5th (5:55 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
October 27th
1943: Residents would describe this event as 'one of the worst fogs in the Twin Cities in memory'. A very dense area of fog blanketed the area. In the thickest fog, street lights could not be seen 25 yards away. Drivers refused to cross unmarked railroad crossings and traffic was brought to a standstill.
1931: An intense area of low pressure moves into the Duluth area. The barometer falls to 29.02 inches.
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National Weather Forecast
On Thursday, we'll be watching a system in the central United States that will bring the potential of showers and storms. Behind it, snow will be possible in the Colorado Rockies. A frontal boundary moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring rain chances along with higher-elevation snow. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary lingering over Florida will produce some storm chances.
Some heavy rain will be possible in the Pacific Northwest, Southern Plains, and New England, where 1-3" will be possible through Friday evening. Snow can be expected from the Cascades to the Colorado Rockies, with several inches possible for some.
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'Virtually every child' to face frequent heat waves by 2050, UNICEF says
More from the Washington Post: "Catastrophic storms and unforgiving heat waves devastated many parts of the world this year, with Earth experiencing one of its hottest summers on record in 2022. Now, a new report from UNICEF estimates that nearly all the world's children — more than 2 billion — will be exposed to high heat-wave frequency by 2050. That is about 1.5 billion more children than are exposed now. "The models tell us this is the case, as does empirical lived experience," Lauren Gifford, a research scientist at the University of Arizona, said in response to the report. She added, "Children now and children who haven't been born yet are going to exist in the world in very different ways, and some of those ways we can't even conceive yet.""
Climate Change is Closing Daily Temperature Gap, Clouds Could be the Cause
More from the University of Texas at Austin: "Climate change is shrinking the difference between the daily high temperature and the daily low in many parts of the world. The gap between the two, known as the diurnal temperature range (DTR), has a significant effect on growing seasons, crop yields, residential energy consumption and human health issues related to heat stress. But why and where the DTR shrinks with climate change has been something of a mystery. Researchers who are part of a new international study that examined the DTR at the end of the 21st century believe they have found the answer: An increase in clouds, which blocks incoming-shortwave radiation from the sun during the day. This means that while both the daily maximum temperature and the daily minimum are expected to continue to increase with climate change, the daily maximum temperature will increase at a slower rate. The end result is that the DTR will continue to shrink in many parts of the world, but that the changes will vary depending on a variety of local conditions, researchers said."
Renewables provided nearly one-quarter of US electrical generation to August 2022
More from Electrek: "Renewable energy – solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, biomass – provided almost a quarter of electrical generation in the US during the first two-thirds of 2022, according to data just released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which was reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign. The latest issue of EIA's "Electric Power Monthly" report (with data through August 31, 2022) reflects that, year-to-date, renewables provided 23.3% of total US electrical generation, compared to 20.6% a year earlier. Further, in the first eight months of 2022, renewable energy sources (including small-scale solar) increased their electrical output by 17.5%, compared to the same period a year earlier."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
