COVID-19 hospitalizations increased to 654 earlier this week, but the positivity rate of diagnostic testing for the infectious disease remained flat at 6.6% — offering a glimmer of hope that the latest pandemic wave might be peaking.

State health officials cautioned that the latest indicators don't account for viral transmission at large events such as the Minnesota State Fair, or at K-12 schools that just started fall classes, but that a level positivity rate is better than a rising one.

"It's really too early to tell," state infectious disease director Kris Ehresmann said on Wednesday. "We just had the great mixing experiment of the State Fair and now we've got kids in school. And we've seen in a lot of places, for instance in Missouri, things were getting better and with back-to-school they saw cases increase. So we want to give it a little bit more time before we get truly a sense of relief."

Considered a key measure of viral spread in Minnesota, the test positivity rate had bottomed out at 1.1% in late June before rising amid a new pandemic wave fueled by a highly infectious delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Catching up with pandemic reporting from the Labor Day weekend, the Minnesota Department of Health on Wednesday disclosed another nine COVID-19 deaths and 5,777 infections. The additions raised Minnesota's totals in the pandemic to 7,865 deaths and 663,248 infections.

While 87% of COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota have involved senior citizens, the additions on Wednesday included three people in their 40s from Becker, Otter Tail and Ramsey counties.

The total COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota on Tuesday brought the state closer to the peak in this spring's wave of 699 hospitalizations, but well below the peak of last fall's wave — before vaccine was available — of 1,864.

The latest social outbreak summary report identified 16 COVID-19 outbreaks at fairs and festivals in August on top of 17 in July in Minnesota. These outbreaks are defined as three unrelated people testing positive for the coronavirus after attending the same event.

The state also reported 13 sports-related outbreaks in August amid the resumption of varsity and school athletics. Sports outbreaks are defined as two people from the same team or program who test positive and have no other viral transmission sources in common.

Only 10 such outbreaks had been reported in June and July, after 351 were identified in March through May amid a spring COVID-19 wave fueled by the alpha variant.

Vaccination levels have improved since that time — with Minnesota reporting on Wednesday that more than 3.3 million people had received at least first doses of COVID-19 vaccine. That equals more than 60% of the total population and 71.1% of eligible people 12 and older.

The actual rates are higher because the state totals don't include doses provided by federal agencies such as the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Indian Health Service.

The state reported a 92% first-dose rate in more-vulnerable senior citizens, but also a 52% rate in children age 12 to 15 amid efforts to vaccinate them before K-12 classes resumed.

Jeremy Olson • 612-673-7744