Minneapolis' shot at DNC is a long one, but it could pay off

Minneapolis emerged this week as one of four finalists for the Democratic National Convention in 2012, four years after the Twin Cities hosted a Republican National Convention that organizers say funneled $168 million into the local economy.

Mayor R.T. Rybak said he wants the convention based at the Metrodome, provided planners agree, with ancillary events at the city's Convention Center and Target Center.

But first the city needs to beat out Cleveland, St. Louis and Charlotte, N.C., to land the convention. Both precedent and politics suggest that will be a tall order.

It's been 50 years since one of the two major parties had a convention where the opposing party had it four years before. And Democrats arguably could get more political bang for their bucks in a swing state with more electoral votes. Minnesota, with 10 votes, has fewer than any city on the short list, and its votes are considered less at risk.

Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, and Missouri, with 11, were battlegrounds in the 2008 presidential election, and Democrats may feel a greater need to curry favor with voters in those states.

"If President Obama can't win Minnesota, he's not going to be president anymore," said David Lillehaug, a Democratic activist and lawyer. Political commentator Blois Olson went further: "I think it'll go to Cleveland. That's an easy one. You can't win the presidency without Ohio these days."

There were indications this week that making the short list wasn't much of a hurdle. Inquiries by the Star Tribune found only two additional major cities that discussed making a bid -- Philadelphia, which didn't bid, and Phoenix, which did but is being shunned by some conventiongoers because of Arizona's crackdown on illegal immigration.

A Democratic National Committee spokeswoman refused to say how many cities bid. Minneapolis now needs to prepare for a July 18-20 visit by a site selection committee. It also will need to form a host committee that would face raising at least $50 million to finance the event if the city is awarded the convention, which could start the week of Labor Day 2012.

Unlike the last cycle, when St. Paul and Minneapolis made a joint bid for both major conventions, Minneapolis is taking the lead on this one. The effort grew from discussions involving Rybak and Melvin Tennant, who leads Meet Minneapolis, the city's convention and visitor bureau. Rybak said that as far back as the 2009 Obama inaugural he reminded Democratic chairman Tim Kaine that Minneapolis had been a finalist for the party's 2008 convention. Rybak also was an early Obama supporter.

Republicans picked St. Paul for their convention in 2006, just as some civic leaders were growing optimistic that the city would land the Democrats. One Republican leader said then that the GOP decision was based on logistics such as arenas, work space, transportation, security and hotel rooms.

City has the goods

Minneapolis has almost 6,000 downtown hotel rooms, most within seven blocks of its convention center, although the huge need for rooms meant that some delegates to the St. Paul convention stayed as far away as Plymouth.

Minneapolis has hosted conventions with as many as 50,000 attendees [for the 2000 gathering of Alcoholics Anonymous]. General sessions were at the Metrodome, but smaller sessions and registration were at the Convention Center.

Some note that the Metrodome lacks the adjacent media and exhibitor space that St. Paul had with the Touchstone Energy Place convention center and Roy Wilkins Auditorium next to the Xcel Energy Center arena.

But Rybak said the Metrodome would allow both floor sessions and wider public events, such as the acceptance speech Obama gave to 84,000 people in 2006 at Denver's Invesco Field. Moreover, because the Metrodome is on the edge of downtown, the security required wouldn't paralyze downtown traffic, though downtown businesses would still benefit, Rybak said.

Rybak predicted the economic impact would be $200 million, over $30 million more than Republicans claimed to have generated in 2008. Back then, people such as Art Rolnick, former research director for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said such estimates are overly simple and might be inflated.

The last one was in 1892

Minneapolis City Council Member Meg Tuthill, who until she was elected last year owned a store that sold balloons and other party items, said her experience was an example of how businesses can get a nice boost -- if owners work at it. She got a list of convention hotels and marketed her store to their catering and sales managers.

"We did have a bounce, but that's because we marketed," Tuthill said. She also stayed open on the Labor Day weekend, which paid off when the Virginia delegation ordered several balloon bouquets for its hospitality room.

Among the finalists, only Charlotte hasn't hosted a national political convention. Among the other three, Minneapolis has gone the longest since last hosting one -- the Republican convention in 1892. St. Louis last hosted one in 1916, and Cleveland held its last one in 1936.

"I find it hard to believe that when somebody sees the reality of how great this region is, that they would want to go somewhere else," Rybak said. But he added: "My guess is that at the end of the day, this will come down to factors beyond our control."

Lillehaug said that one intangible could work for Minneapolis:

"I hope that the people who chose the city ask the question: 'Where would you rather live, work and play?'"

Steve Brandt • 612-673-4438