Cold Start Thursday - Record Lows In Northern Minnesota
It was a bitterly cold start on Thursday across the state. While we only made it down to -9F in the metro, temperatures started the day off in the -30s and even -40s across northern Minnesota. International Falls made it down to -42F, which was a record low for the day (previous: -40F in 1982)! A low of -36F in Hibbing was also a record low this morning (previous: -32F in 1989 and 1996).
Here's a closer look at some of the lows across northern Minnesota Thursday morning. The coldest spot I could find was -44F at the Ash Lake MNDOT station. That -45F northeast of Roseau was at Sprague, Canada.
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A Little Warmer Friday
The good news is that it won't be as cold to start Friday morning, with only a low of -7F in the Twin Cities (not like that feels that much different than -9F!). However, temperatures will only reach the negative teens in parts of northern Minnesota.
As we head through Thursday Night into Friday morning, we will be watching some light snow moving down I-94, moving out of southeastern Minnesota by the midday hours. It looks like this snow would reach the metro right around the morning commute, so expect some slick spots due to the snow.
Snow totals are generally expected to be at or under half an inch for many locations. The heaviest snow will fall across parts of the North Shore, where areas like Grand Marais could see about 2" of snow.
So again we'll watch some light snow moving across the state during the morning hours on Friday with clouds decreasing for the most part in the afternoon. Highs for many areas will be in the single digits.
We'll watch that snow chance here in the metro during the morning commute, with clouds decreasing into the afternoon. Highs will only make it to the high single digits.
Even with temperatures above zero, winds will keep those feels like temperatures below zero throughout the day.
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Much Warmer Saturday... Before We're Cooler Again Sunday
While Saturday will be cloudy with a few flurries in the metro, it will certainly be the warmest day of the weekend as an area of low pressure moves off to our north ushering in that warmer air. Highs should make it to around freezing in the metro Saturday. That area of low pressure will bring more steady snow across northern Minnesota, with a few inches possible near the International Border and along the North Shore. Temperatures cool back into the teens for highs Sunday behind that system.
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Warmer Weather Returns Mid-Next Week
As we head into next week, though, we will see a more prolonged warm-up here in the Twin Cities, with highs in the 20s Monday and then the 30s for the middle of the week. The extended models show warmer than average temperatures in the 30s continuing through the end of the week into early next weekend.
And the Climate Prediction Center shows the potential of warmer than average temperatures for the middle and end of next week here across the upper Midwest.
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The Power And Limitations of Weather Models
By Paul Douglas
"Paul, you rely too much on weather models." I hear that from time to time. Truth be told, if it wasn't for models we wouldn't be able to predict weather much beyond 24 hours.
I approach weather models much the same as any other source of information. Is there consensus? If most weather models are in agreement, ignore the crazy outliers. What are the model trends over time? By definition forecasts change as new data arrives. Science is, by nature, frustrating. It means changes and tweaks over time. But the alternative is relying on opinion, vague hunches and weak hand-waving arguments. Forecasts are getting better as model physics improve but the 7-Day Outlook will never be perfect.
Our relatively storm-free pattern is forecast to spill into next week, along with an extended thaw. ECMWF guidance has highs well into the 30s Tuesday through Friday of next week. A small, welcome hint of what's to come.
None of the snow at the Winter Olympics is natural. It was all man-made. An ill-timed snow drought.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
FRIDAY: Half inch of light snow. Wake up -2. High 8. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Cloudy and milder. Snow up north. Wake up -3. High 27. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and brisk. Wake up 11. High 16. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
MONDAY: Clouds increase, still chilly. Wake up -3. High 18. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny with a welcome thaw. Wake up 12. High 33. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sun, some melting. Wake up 28. High 35. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-20 mph.
THURSDAY: Clouding up - slushy snow late? Wake up 27. High 34. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 4th
*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 56 minutes, and 28 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 40 seconds
*When Do We See 10 Hours Of Daylight: February 6th (10 hours, 1 minute, 53 seconds)
*Next Sunrise At/Before 7:00 AM: February 23rd (7:00 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 5:30 PM: February 8th (5:31 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
February 4th
1984: The event termed the 'Surprise Blizzard' moves across Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas. Meteorologists were caught off guard with its rapid movement. People described it as a 'wall of white.' Thousands of motorists were stranded in subzero weather. Only a few inches of snow fell, but was whipped by winds up to 80 mph. 16 people died in stranded cars and outside.
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National Weather Forecast
The system that has been impacting the central U.S. with snow and ice will start to completely move into the Northeast as we head into Friday, with storms possible in the Southeast. Snow and rain will be possible across the northern tier of states.
Through Thursday Night, heavy icing is expected from Arkansas into the Ohio Valley. The heaviest additional snow - over a foot - from Thursday into Saturday will fall in New England with that storm system finally starting to move out. 3"+ of rain is possible in parts of the Southeast.
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New electric vehicle car-sharing program Evie debuts in Twin Cities
More from the Star Tribune: "One hundred matching electric vehicles are rolling into the Twin Cities as part of a new car-sharing program that officials say is the first in the country powered entirely by renewable energy. The white-and-green Chevy Bolts have been leased by the city of St. Paul, which teamed up with the city of Minneapolis, nonprofit Hourcar and Xcel Energy to launch the $12 million project that will also install 70 new electric vehicle charging stations across the Twin Cities. Unlike the handful of electric car-sharing programs in other cities that require drivers to dock vehicles at charging spots, the Twin Cities' Evie Carshare will allow users to end rides by parking on the street anywhere within a 35-mile designated "home area" that stretches from north Minneapolis to the East Side of St. Paul."
Biden administration urges against U.S. Postal Service plan to spend billions on gas vehicles
More from CNBC: "The Biden administration on Wednesday attempted to halt the U.S. Postal Service's plan to spend up to $11.3 billion to replace its delivery fleet with thousands of gas-powered vehicles, arguing that the vehicles will worsen climate change and public health. The EPA and the White House Council on Environmental Quality, in a letter to the Postal Service, urged the Postal Service to conduct an updated and more detailed technical analysis and hold a public hearing on its plan. The Postal Service's plan would blunt the president's pledge to replace its federal fleet of 600,000 cars and trucks to electric power and slash the government's carbon emissions by 65% by 2030. The administration has also committed to cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions nearly in half by the end of the decade and transition the economy to net-zero emissions by midcentury."
Should Big Oil Pick Up The Climate Change Bill?
More from NPR: "The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals is deciding whether a Baltimore case against more than a dozen oil and gas companies will be heard in state or federal court. The city argues the companies are liable for the local costs of climate change. It wants the case heard in state court, which is governed by robust consumer protection laws. But industry lawyers are fighting hard to have it and more than 20 other similar lawsuits nationwide tried in federal court, where the oil and gas industry may be more likely to prevail. NPR climate correspondent Rebecca Hersher, brings an update on the case, which went before the U.S. Supreme court last year. She explains how this pending decision may prove key to determining who pays for climate change."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
