Hockey bracketology: NCAA men's tournament field starting to take shape

Rumor has it that the NCAA recently announced tournament brackets for a sport that plays on the hardwood. However, for those who prefer their winter sports played on ice, Sunday is your day.

The NCAA will announce its 16-team field for the men's hockey tournament on Sunday (5:30 p.m., ESPNU), and the four regionals — at Fargo, Allentown, Pa.; Bridgeport, Conn.; and Manchester, N.H. — will be played from March 23-26. The four regional winners advance to the Frozen Four on April 6 and 8 in Tampa, Fla.

With conference tournaments wrapping up this weekend, the NCAA field is starting to take shape when looking at the PairWise Ratings, the formula that the NCAA uses to fill and seed the tournament. College Hockey News' PairWise Probability Matrix projects that 11 teams are 100% locks to make the field, and a 12^th, Cornell, has a 99.7% chance. That would leave three at-large spots available, with the Atlantic Hockey tournament champion, Canisius or Holy Cross, taking the 16^th spot.

With that in mind, let's look at what the field might look like, based on higher seeds winning their conference tournaments. This first draft also is based solely on current PairWise Ratings, without placing any host teams in their corresponding regionals or breaking up first-round intraconference matchups:

Bracketology first draft

Fargo Regional

1. Gophers vs. 16. Canisius

8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State

Bridgeport Regional

2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Alaska

7. St. Cloud State vs. 10. Michigan Tech

Allentown Regional

3. Denver vs. 14. Merrimack

6. Harvard vs. 11. Western Michigan

Manchester Regional

4. Michigan vs. 13. Minnesota State Mankato

5. Boston University vs. 12. Cornell

There is an immediate problem with this bracket. Penn State is a host, so it must be placed in Allentown. So, moving Penn State to Allentown and Harvard to Fargo would work, but I would expect that the NCAA makes the second switch of moving St. Cloud State to Fargo and Harvard to Bridgeport, which might help attendance at both sites.

There are no intraconference first-round issues, and attendance seems to balance as well as possible considering the field includes 10 Western teams and six Eastern squads. Swapping Merrimack and MSU Mankato could be possible, but I'll resist that to protect bracket integrity. So, here's my projected bracket through Sunday's games:

Bracketology updated draft

Fargo Regional

1. Gophers vs. 16. Canisius

7. St. Cloud State vs. 9. Ohio State

Bridgeport Regional

2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Alaska

6. Harvard vs 10. Michigan Tech

Allentown Regional

3. Denver vs. 14. Merrimack

5. Boston University vs. Cornell

Manchester Regional

4. Michigan vs. 13. Minnesota State Mankato

5. Boston University vs. 12. Cornell

The North Dakota factor

One game for fans to keep an eye on is the NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinal between St. Cloud State and North Dakota at 7:30 p.m. Friday at Xcel Energy Center. The Fighting Hawks have climbed up to No. 18 in the PairWise. If they win the NCHC tournament, they'd be the host team in the NCAA Fargo Regional. According to the PairWise Probability Matrix, North Dakota cannot earn an NCAA at-large berth. That means a loss in either the NCHC semifinals or title game would end UND's season.

If North Dakota does make the NCAA field, it would not be the No. 16 overall seed. That spot would go to the Atlantic Hockey tournament champion, either Canisius or Holy Cross. The Fighting Hawks could rise as high as the No. 12 overall seed (and the No. 3 seed in Fargo) if they win the NCHC and Northern Michigan (CCHA), Colgate (ECAC) and Providence or UMass Lowell (Hockey East) win their conference tournaments.

The NCAA typically puts the No. 1 overall seed in the regional closest to its home and has it play the No. 16 seed. If North Dakota makes the field, that could prompt an interesting decision for the NCAA. Would the NCAA move Minnesota out of the Fargo Region to play the No. 16 seed or leave it in Fargo to play UND as the No. 15, 14 or 13 seed? Should North Dakota ascend to No. 12 overall, the No. 1 vs. No. 16 matchup could remain in Fargo, while the Fighting Hawks take on the regional's No. 2 seed.

Of course, North Dakota first would need to beat St. Cloud State, then defeat the winner of Friday's 4 p.m. NCHC semifinal between defending national champion Denver and Colorado College. The Pioneers have secured the No. 3 overall seed in the NCAA tournament, while Quinnipiac is locked in at No. 2 and Michigan at No. 4.

St. Cloud State is safely in the NCAA field and has a 98% chance to be the No. 7 overall seed, according to the PairWise matrix.

Winning is Mavericks' best route

Minnesota State Mankato, last year's NCAA runner-up, has appeared in four consecutive NCAA tournaments. To make it five in a row, it would behoove the Mavericks to beat Northern Michigan in the CCHA tournament final at 6 p.m. Saturday in Mankato. A tourney title would give the Mavericks an automatic NCAA bid.

The Mavericks have a 96% chance of making the NCAA field, according to the PairWise matrix and could get in as an at-large team with a loss. But they're No. 13 in the PairWise, so they would be vulnerable to being bounced if there are upset winners in the other conference tournaments.