A Developing System in the Gulf?
The National Hurricane Center is currently watching a developing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche that will bring disturbed weather to the Gulf Coast States this week with heavy rain and gusty winds.
Tracking A Developing System in the Gulf
Latest model runs continue to show a slow drift northward toward the Coastal Bend of Texas. Areas of heavy rainfall and flash flood concerns can't be ruled out as this system moves through.
Heavy Rainfall Potential in the Gulf
Latest model runs suggest several inches of rain from the Coastal Bend of Texas to Louisiana as we head through the week ahead. Flash flood concerns can't be ruled out in some of the heaviest rain bands.
Fall Color Tracker
According to the MN DNR, much of the state is already experiencing minor changes in the fall color. Keep in mind that much of the summer was hot and dry, so some of the trees are a bit stressed and could be prematurely changing. With that being said, we are getting closer to that time of the year. See the latest update from the MN DNR HERE:
Fall Color Depends on Weather
Ever wonder why some years, fall color is so vibrant vs some years, fall color tends to be a bit more dull? Val Cervenka, Coordinator from the DNR Forest Health Program, shares how the weather can play a roll in those fall colors. Due to the hot and dry summer that most of experienced, it is likely that fall foliage could be less impressive this year with more tans, bronzes and auburns.
Typical Peak Dates For Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, fall colors typically start to peak across the northern part of the state in mid/late September. Peak color typically arrives in central and southern Minnesota late September and into early/mid October. Note that over the next several weeks, you'll notice some big changes in the landscape as we head deeper into fall.
Larry To Bring FEET of Snow to Greenland
Take a look at the GFS model forecast below. On the right part of the screen, you'll notice Larry, which will quickly lose tropical characteristics as it lifts north toward Greenland, but will still pack a major punch. The remnants of Larry are expected to bring FEET of snow to eastern parts of Greenland with blizzard-like conditions as winds gust to near hurricane force!
Another Tropical System in the Gulf?
Keep in mind that the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season is on September 10th and things are still quite active in the Atlantic basin now. NOAA's NHC is tracking 4 other waves, 2 of which have a high probability of tropical formation over the next 5 days. The one migrating into the Gulf could bring very heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast as we head into next week.
Minnesota Drought Update
According to the latest drought update from the US Drought Monitor, drought continues to slightly improve across the state. From last week to this week, there were slight improvements in the D3 (extreme) and D4 (exceptional) categories. The worst of the drought still remains across the northern tier of the state with moderate to severe drought across much of the Twin Cities metro.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
Despite picking up some much needed rainfall at the end of August, many locations are still several inches below average since January 1st. Some of the biggest deficits are still across the northern half of the state, where Exceptional Drought conditions are in place. The Twin Cities is still -3.60" below average and at its 66th driest January 1st to September 11th on record.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
A few showers and storms will be possible across southern Minnesota on Sunday, but our next best chance of rain arrives Monday Night into Tuesday with some 0.50" to 1.00" tallies possible across the central part of the state and close to the Twin Cities Metro.
Simulated Radar From AM Saturday to AM Tuesday
Here's the simulated radar from AM Sunday to Tuesday, a few showers and storms across southern Minnesota on Sunday. However, our next best chance of rain moves through PM Monday into Tuesday. Some of the storms could be a little vigorous across the southeastern part of the state, but most locations should at least see some rainfall accumulation.
Weather Outlook for Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, September 12th, looks mostly dry in the metro, but there could be a few isolated showers early in the day. The best chance of rain will be in the afternoon in the southern part of the state.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Sunday shows temps warming from the upper 50s in the morning to the low/mid 70s by the afternoon. There could be a few isolated showers early in the day, but the best chance of rain will be south of the metro. Winds will be out of the NNE with gusts around 10-15mph.
Regional Weather Outlook for Sunday
The weather outlook across the region on Sunday shows near average temps with highs warming into 60s and 70s across the state.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temperatures through midweek. Warmer temps arrives Thursday & Friday with highs around 80F, which will be nearly +10F above average for mid September. Showers and storms will be possible PM Monday into Tuesday and again later in the week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Cooler than average temps will be found in the Pacific Northwest and into Alaska.
Feet of Snow in Greenland? Storms Monday Night
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas
We are now officially passed the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which falls on September 10th.With that being said, it has already been an above average season with 13 named storms, 5 of which have become hurricanes, including Ida that made landfall in Louisiana as a major category 4 storm with 150mph winds on Sunday, August 29th, 16 years to the day when Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana.
If this hurricane season hasn't already been crazy enough, remnants of Larry that developed on September 1st in the Atlantic will now become a blizzard in Greenland with 85mph winds and FEET of snow - Uffda!
A stalled frontal boundary across southern Minnesota will be responsible for lingering showers and storms today, a few of which could skirt the southern metro.
Our next best chance of showers and storms arrives late Monday into Tuesday with a few pockets of heavier rainfall. Somewhat unsettled skies linger into next week with near average temperatures.
The hurricane season continues, stay tuned for more...
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: AM sprinkle. Cooler temps. Winds: NNE 5-10. High: 73.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: N 5. Low: 55.
MONDAY: Late day storms arrive. Winds: ESE 5-10. High: 75.
TUESDAY: Lingering am clouds and showers. Winds: WNW 8-13. Wake-up: 61. High: 73.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny with Breezy south winds. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 52. High: 75.
THURSDAY: Passing cool front. Isolated T-storm? Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 81.
FRIDAY: Spotty PM showers/storms develop. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High: 73.
SATURDAY: AM storms. Breezy with afternoon sun. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 79.
This Day in Weather History
September 12th
1982: Two tornadoes touch down in Benton County. The F2 tornado causes $250,000 worth of damage, and an F0 tornado causes $25,000.
1931: The fifth consecutive day of 90 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.
1923: Winter weather pays an early visit to northern Minnesota. The cities of Roseau and Virginia receive flurries and sleet.
1903: 4.96 inches of rain fall in the Minneapolis area.
1869: A hail storm between 1 and 3 am breaks windows and causes considerable damage to late vegetables at Madilia in Watonwan County.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 12th
Average High: 73F (Record: 94F set in 1948)
Average Low: 54F (Record: 36F set in 1940)
Record Rainfall: 4.96" set in 1903
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 13th
Sunrise: 6:48am
Sunset: 7:29pm
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 40 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~2 Hour & 57 Minutes
Moon Phase for September 12th at Midnight
0.6 Days Before First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"Northern Hemisphere view of the western sky after sunset, beginning with the young moon's return around September 8, 2021. Watch day by day for the waxing crescent to sweep past Venus and move closer to Antares, Heart of Scorpius the Scorpion. Unfortunately, the autumn angle of the ecliptic, as seen from this hemisphere, keeps these objects low in the sky. Moon and Venus, plus Antares - A crescent moon and Venus are low in the west after sunset on September 8 to 11, 2021. The moon is near our line of sight to the sun, setting soon after the sun on September 8. But then, day by day, the waxing crescent appears higher in the west and is easier to see. It'll sweep past Venus and then move closer to red Antares, Heart of Scorpius the Scorpion. Venus will remain in the west after sunset for the rest of 2021. But, as the September equinox approaches, Antares is now shifting into the sunset glare."
Dixie Fire in Northern California
The #DixieFire is the 2nd largest fire in California's history burning nearly 959,000 acres as of September 11th. The fire is 62% contained and has burned more than 1,300 structures. The largest wildfires in the state's history was the August Complex from 2020, which burned more than 1 million acres.
Largest Wildfires in California State History
Here's a list of California's Top 20 Largest Wildfires in the state's history. Note the Dixie Fire is still ongoing and it the 2nd largest wildfire on record. The Caldor fire is nearly 218,000 acres a is currently the state's 15th largest fire in history. The Monument Fire is also currently active, burning almost 207,000 acres as is the 16th largest fire in California history.
National High Temps Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows well above average temperatures across much of the nation with record highs possible in the Central Plains.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook into early next week shows unsettled weather moving into the Midwest with pockets of locally heavy rainfall. However, the heaviest rains will develop across the Gulf Coast as a tropical system moves in.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center heavier precipitation potential will be found near the Great Lakes Region and along the Gulf Coast. Early estimates suggest that 10" or rain or more could fall near Houston and Galveston with flooding possible. Meanwhile, folks in the Southwest will remain dry through mid September.
Climate Stories
Hottest Summer on Record for the U.S., Tying the "Dust Bowl" Year of 1936
"During meteorological summer (June-August), the average temperature for the Lower 48 was 74.0°F, 2.6°F above average, nominally eclipsing the extreme heat of the Dust Bowl in 1936 by nearly 0.01°F and essentially tying 1936 for the warmest summer on record. A record 18.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. experienced record-warm temperatures for this season. For August, the contiguous U.S. average temperature was also 74.0°F, 1.9°F above the 20th-century average and ranked as the 14th-warmest August on record. For the year to date, the contiguous U.S. temperature was 55.6°F, 1.8°F above the 20th-century average, ranking 13th warmest in the January-August record. The summer precipitation total across the Lower 48 was 9.48 inches, 1.16 inches above average, ranking eighth wettest in the historical record. The August precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 3.09 inches, 0.47 inch above average, ranking 14th wettest in the 127-year period of record. The year-to-date precipitation total across the contiguous U.S. was 21.19 inches, 0.48 inch above the long-term average, ranking in the middle third of the January-August record."
"HOW THE DUST BOWL DISASTER COULD'VE BEEN AVOIDED"
"The Great Depression represented a then-unthinkable level of poverty as the stock market crashed to historic lows. Its causes are debated, but the end result was millions of people losing their jobs as prospective consumers became far more reserved in their spending (via Britannica). In America, over 15 million people were unemployed, facing starvation and homelessness for years. Other nations suffered through similar hardship, with the people of Germany and Japan becoming desperate enough that they turned to the future Axis leaders for salvation. For rural America, the situation initially might not have seemed like a major issue. As they were responsible for supplying food to millions (and had no Emus to contend with, unlike Australia's Depression-era farmers), it would surely have been no problem for the farmers to feed themselves and their families during the crisis. While this may have been true in some parts, in the Great Plains environmental changes and decades-long land mismanagement yielded fatal consequences throughout the Depression."
"Supercell storm clouds act like atmospheric mountains"
"New turbulence model gives forecasters the jump in predicting severe storms. Last week, the remnants of Hurricane Ida spawned tornadoes and high winds that tore across the northeastern United States, destroying buildings and taking dozens of lives. Now, scientists have identified a key feature of big storms that could make such extreme weather events easier to predict. When most storms form, they stay in the troposphere, the layer of the atmosphere where the majority of our planet's weather takes place. But occasionally, they "punch up" into the stratosphere, creating mountains of clouds that trail wispy formations called above-anvil cirrus plumes (AACPs). These high-flying clouds have been linked to high winds, hailstorms, and tornadoes on the ground. To find out why, researchers combined lightning data, radar, and severe storm warnings to build a 3D visualization of AACPs. Their model revealed that—just like winds rushing over real mountains—stratospheric winds rush over the high-level clouds as if they were solid objects. This generates powerful, downward winds and turbulent events called hydraulic jumps, they report today in Science. These plumed storms, which can inject more than 7 tons of water per second into the normally dry stratosphere, might also have an impact on our climate, the researchers write. Because water vapor acts as a greenhouse gas once it enters the stratosphere, it could lead to warming temperatures on Earth—which would in turn spur more supercell storms. Knowing how these storms work, and when and where they occur, could improve climate models—and give advanced warning to people on the ground."
See more from Science.org HERE:
"Why climate change is still the greatest threat to human health"
"Polluted air and steadily rising temperatures are linked to health effects ranging from increased heart attacks and strokes to the spread of infectious diseases and psychological trauma. People around the world are witnessing firsthand how climate change can wreak havoc on the planet. Steadily rising average temperatures fuel increasingly intense wildfires, hurricanes, and other disasters that are now impossible to ignore. And while the world has been plunged into a deadly pandemic, scientists are sounding the alarm once more that climate change is still the greatest threat to human health in recorded history. As recently as August—when wildfires raged in the United States, Europe, and Siberia—World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement that "the risks posed by climate change could dwarf those of any single disease." On September 5, more than 200 medical journals released an unprecedented joint editorial that urged world leaders to act. "The science is unequivocal," they write. "A global increase of 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average and the continued loss of biodiversity risk catastrophic harm to health that will be impossible to reverse."
See more from National Geographic HERE:
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
